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Future Mobile Handsets - 13th edition

In a climate of increasing handset sales but decreasing revenues and margins, the smartphone segment offers the largest returns for many in the mobile value chain. It has therefore become the most competitive segment.

Summary

The most trusted source for market sizing, segmentation, analysis, data and forecasts on the mobile handsets market - relied on by decision makers.

overview

The growing penetration of smartphones remains the most significant change in the global handsets market over the forecast period to 2016, helped by their ever-reducing cost. This has had a pronounced impact on the performance of other handset market segments and has created a number of opportunities and challenges across the mobile telecoms value chain for device vendors, component providers, content providers and mobile operators.

Now in its 13th edition, Future Mobile Handsets is the definitive guide to the worldwide handset market and provides an in-depth analysis of mobile handset device trends, key industry issues, market segmentation, advances in hardware technology, and comprehensive market data.

In light of the change in the landscape of the total mobile handsets market, Informa Telecoms & Media has made a number of adjustments to its segmentation. Most notable has been the revision of smartphone segments, moving away from one based on price and form factor to one based on price, technology and hardware, applications and addressable market. The "non-smart" segment has been simplified to just two segments, basic phones and feature phones.

New for this edition are detailed analyses and handset sales by product segments and price tiers reflecting these changes in the industry. Product segments now include a more comprehensive breakdown of smartphones, including the "super-smartphone" category, and detailed analysis of the non-smart segment, taking a looking at software platforms. Each of the five product segments - two non-smart and three smart - is then further segmented by price tiers.

-- NEW FOR 2012 --

The new Future Mobile Handsets Interactive Forecast Tool (IFT) is designed to allow the easy manipulation of all our major handset-sales-volume forecasts. Specifically, it means that the handsets forecasts can be queried, cross-tabulated and charted via a number of differing segmentations and markets. Chief among the metrics used in the IFT are volume sales by region, network technology, product segments (smart and non-smart), price tiers and operating systems.

Case Studies included:

Profiles and SWOT analyses for the mobile handset industry's top 10 vendors.

  • Apple
  • HTC
  • Huawei
  • LG
  • Motorola
  • Nokia
  • RIM
  • Samsung
  • Sony Mobile
  • ZTE

Countries/regions covered:

North America:

  • US
  • Canada

Latin America:

  • Brazil
  • Rest of Latin America

Asia Pacific:

  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Rest of AP developed
  • China
  • India
  • Rest of AP developing

Europe:

  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK
  • Rest of Western Europe
  • Russia
  • Rest of Eastern Europe

Africa/Middle East:

  • Africa
  • Middle East

How will this research help you

Operators

Understand how the handset manufacturers are segmenting the market and how this aligns with your customers and markets Analyze which handsets and manufacturers should be an essential part of your portfolio

Handset manufacturers

  • Establish your competitive position through a thorough review of the significant players
  • Align your five-year strategy and sales projections with the latest market estimates

Component and software suppliers

  • Understand the challenges that the handset manufacturers and operators face and ensure your business is aligned
  • Align your long-term sales projections with global estimates
  • Review your research and development strategy with market demand

New report format:

New Report format - designed for sharing - This research is available from our online store either as a hardcopy report or electronic format, featuring a series of PDF, PPT and XLS files, each designed to provide you with business critical intelligence which is easy to share with your colleagues.

Contributing Analysts

  • David McQueen, Principal Analyst, Handsets & Devices
  • Malik Saadi, Principal Analyst, Handsets & Devices
  • Julian Jest, Research Analyst, Handsets & Devices

Table of Contents

  • Future Mobile Handsets: 13th edition. Executive summary - PPT (22 slides)
  • Future Mobile Handsets: 13th edition. Executive summary
  • Future Mobile Handsets - Interactive Forecast Tool 2012 - Excel file

MWC 2012: ‘The race to the bottom' and other Handsets & Devices themes

  • Fig. 1: Nokia Lumia 610, first sub-€200 Windows Phone 7 smartphon
  • Fig. 2: Nokia 808 PureView
  • Fig. 3: Sony Xperia U, P and S
  • Fig. 4: ZTE Era
  • Fig. 5: HTC One X
  • Fig. 6: Huawei Ascend D Quad

Mobile handset sales set for continued growth through 2016 as market bounces back

  • Fig. 1: Global, mobile handset sales, 2006-2011
  • Fig. 2: Global, mobile handset sales by region, 2010-2016

North America's 3.5G handset sales took the lead in 2011

  • Fig. 1: North America, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 2: US, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 3: Canada, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016

Latin America handset sales are led by 3G+ devices to meet strong demand for prepaid data plans

  • Fig. 1: Latin America, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 2: Brazil, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016

Asia Pacific handset market still showing significant growth

  • Fig. 1: Asia Pacific, mobile handset sales, by subregion, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 2: Asia Pacific, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 3: Japan, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 4: South Korea, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 5: Rest of Asia Pacific Developed, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 6: China, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 7: India, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 8: Rest of Asia Pacific Developing, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016

Europe's mobile handset market stages a recovery after the economic recession led by strong 3G+ handset sales

  • Fig. 1: Europe, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 2: Western Europe, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 3: West Europe, total handset sales, by major country, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 4: Eastern Europe, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 5: Russia, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016

Africa and the Middle East handset sales are still driven by 2G+, but are forecast to move to 3G+ from 2014

  • Fig. 1: Africa and the Middle East, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 2: Africa, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 3: Middle East, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2010-2016

Global volume sales of 3G+ handsets will still lead the market in 2016 despite the industry's focus on LTE

  • Fig. 1: Handset definitions and classifications by technology family
  • Fig. 2: Global mobile handset sales, by technology generation groups, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 3: Global mobile handset sales, by main technology family, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 4: China, TD-SCDMA mobile handset sales, 2011-2016
  • Fig. 5: Global, LTE mobile handset sales, by region, 2011-2016

The impact of spectrum fragmentation on LTE devices

  • Fig. 1: Global, LTE mobile notebooks, netbooks and smartphones by vendor, operator and operating band, to 1H11
  • Fig. 2: Global, LTE mobile USB dongles, PC cards and MiFi modems by vendor, operator and operating band, up to 1H11
  • Fig. 3: SWOT analysis of the 2600MHz LTE operating band
  • Fig. 4: SWOT analysis of the 2300MHz LTE operating band
  • Fig. 5: SWOT analysis of the 2100MHz LTE operating band
  • Fig. 6: SWOT analysis of the 1800MHz LTE operating band
  • Fig. 7: SWOT analysis of the 800/700MHz LTE operating band
  • Fig. 8: LTE capacity as a function of signal strength
  • Fig. 9: Signal strength, reliability, power consumption and modulation associated with different LTE operating bands
  • Fig. 10: Accumulation of access technologies within LTE multimode devices

Growth in smartphone sales and elevation of “smarter” feature phones to displace basic phones by 2013

  • Fig. 1: Changing mobile handset segmentation, old vs. new, Nov-11
  • Fig. 2: Mobile handset segmentation - changing definitions
  • Fig. 3: Global mobile handset sales, by technology segmentation, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 4: Global mobile handset sales, basic phones, feature phones and smartphones, 2010-2016
  • Fig. 5: Global mobile handset sales, by technology segmentation and OS, 2010-2016

Mobile handset vendors jostle for position as migration towards smartphones is changing the game

  • Fig. 1: Global handset sales, 1998-2012
  • Fig. 2: Global, handset sales/shipments and market share, by leading vendor, 2009-2011
  • Fig. 3: Leading vendors' shares of the global handset sales/shipments market, 2009 vs. 2011

Major handset vendors SWOT analyses - Excel file

Nokia will hold to its long-term plan despite declining smartphone and featurephone sales

  • Fig. 1: Nokia volume shipments and ASPs, 2006-1Q12
  • Fig. 2: Nokia's handset model portfolio share, by platform, 2007-2011
  • Fig. 3: Nokia SWOT analysis, May-12

Motorola stops the decline in yearly shipments while Google's intentions are still unclear

  • Fig. 1: Motorola volume shipments and ASPs, 2006-4Q11
  • Fig. 2: Motorola SWOT analysis, May-12

Samsung experiences strong sales across its product line and has high expectations for 2012

  • Fig. 1: Samsung volume shipments and ASPs, 2006-1Q12
  • Fig. 2: Samsung SWOT analysis, May-12

Sony Ericsson becomes Sony Mobile, and new leadership is put in place to revive dwindling business

  • Fig. 1: Sony volume shipments and ASPs, 2006-4Q11
  • Fig. 2: Sony Mobile SWOT analysis

LG lacks a “hero” device amid a continued decline in shipments and revenue

  • Fig. 1: LG volume shipments and ASPs, 2006-1Q12
  • Fig. 2: LG SWOT analysis, May-12

A strong year for Apple ending with a record-breaking quarter

  • Fig. 1: Apple volume shipments and ASPs, 2007-1Q12
  • Fig. 2: Apple/iOS SWOT analysis, May-12

HTC unable to sustain impressive growth throughout 2011

  • Fig. 1: HTC volume shipments and ASPs, 2006-4Q11
  • Fig. 2: The changing face of smartphone models in HTC's portfolio
  • Fig. 3: HTC SWOT analysis, May-12

Huawei posts phenomenal smartphone growth but experiences a big drop in profit

  • Fig. 1: Huawei volume shipments, 2006-2011
  • Fig. 2: Huawei SWOT analysis, May-12

ZTE aims big as it continues to expand its international market

  • Fig. 1: ZTE volume shipments and ASPs, 2007-4Q11
  • Fig. 2: ZTE's SWOT analysis, May-12

What's next for the BlackBerry ecosystem? An evaluation of potential business restructuring scenarios

  • Fig. 1: RIM's revenue, expenditure and gross margin, devices vs. software and services, FY06-FY12
  • Fig. 2: RIM's revenues vs. gross profits, devices vs. software and services, FY06-FY12
  • Fig. 3: BlackBerry service users, consumer vs. business, 2005-2012
  • Fig. 4: BlackBerry device sales and ASP, consumer vs. business, 2006-2012
  • Fig. 5: RIM's revenue, expenditure and gross margin, consumer vs. business segment, FY06-2012
  • Fig. 6: RIM's revenues vs. gross profits, consumer vs. business segment, FY06- FY12
  • Fig. 7: RIM's revenue, expenditure and gross margin, hardware vs. software and services, consumer vs. business segment, FY06-FY12
  • Fig. 8: RIM's gross profit, hardware vs. software and services, consumer vs. business segment, FY06- FY12

Native availability on mobile devices is key for RCSe/Joyn to be competitive

  • Fig. 1: Mobile operators, planned deployments of RCSe services
  • Fig. 2: IP communications: the respective positions of over-the-top providers vs. mobile/fixed operators
  • Fig. 3: Handset vendors' support for RCSe/Joyn

Making sense of the smartphone market: Definitions and segmentation

  • Fig.1 : Segmentation of handset-OS platforms and application environments by openness
  • Fig. 2: Smartphone segment definitions, 2011 and 2016: technology & hardware
  • Fig. 3: Smartphone segment definitions, 2011 and 2016: features
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