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DSL acceleration: Next-generation VDSL strategies and forecasts

“VDSL vectoring and other DSL acceleration technologies will prove vital in enabling operators in major markets worldwide to roll out superfast broadband quickly and cost-effectively. ” Stephen Wilson, Senior Analyst, Europe, Informa Telecoms & Media.

This report contains global VDSL subscriber forecasts by region and 24 major markets. It also contains detailed case studies on operator best-practice and incisive analysis and recommendations about the opportunities that the new DSL technologies present.

Overview:

Next-generation copper technologies such as VDSL pair-bonding and vectoring are shaking up the competitive and political landscape for next-generation access broadband markets.

Operators and vendors are placing increasing importance on these technologies as a means to allow operators to offer superfast broadband speeds in a more rapid fashion than having to build FTTH networks. Regulators are also grappling with the complex consequences of this new wave of technologies, while the investment community is looking to understand what DSL acceleration means for potential returns.

An understanding of where these technologies will be applicable and the potential limitations that they face is therefore essential. In some cases, regulation may stymie DSL acceleration technologies and in other markets there may be structural issues, such as copper loop lengths and the availability of multiple copper pairs.

The usefulness of DSL acceleration technologies will therefore differ by market and so a granular quantitative breakdown by region and country is essential. As a result, the report includes detailed five-year VDSL subscriber forecasts for all regions and 24 countries worldwide.

The report also takes time to look at operators that have already deployed VDSL in order to draw key lessons about the technical and commercial strategies that have been successful for these operators and those that have not.

How will this research help you:

  • Quantify, with country and regional-level subscriber forecasts, the potential growth for VDSL.
  • Understand the next generation of copper technologies - including VDSL-from-the-central-office, pair-bonding, vectoring, phantom mode and G.Fast - that promise to increase broadband speeds over DSL networks.
  • Learn from case studies how successful operators have been with their VDSL rollouts.
  • Interpret the regulatory implications of next-generation copper technologies.

Analysis includes:

  • Technology analysis
  • VDSL-bonding strategies: A secret weapon to save time and money in the battle with cable
  • VDSL-vectoring strategies: The copper technology that's making FTTH look passe
  • To what extent are VDSL vectoring and sub loop unbundling incompatible?
  • VDSL-from-the-central-office: the cheapest and easiest NGA option for both incumbents and unbundlers
  • DSL acceleration: Phantom mode a longer-term option for operators
  • G.Fast: business rationale for copper 2.0 remains unclear

Case studies:

  • Belgacom's copper centric NGA strategy
  • O2 Czech Republic's VDSL-from-the - central-office strategy
  • Regulatory issues with vectoring and VDSL=from-the-central-office in Austria

Regions covered:

  • Western Europe
  • Eastern Europe
  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Asia Pacific
  • Middle East
  • Africa

Countries covered by this research:

  • Argentina
  • Belgiums
  • Canada
  • Denmark
  • Israel
  • Mexico
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Slovenia
  • Spain
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • Austria
  • Brazil
  • Czech Republic
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Pakistan
  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa
  • Sweden
  • Thailand
  • US

Table of Contents

DSL acceleration Executive Summary - PPT (14 slides)

Global VDSL Forecasts, 2011-2017 - Excel file

VDSL-bonding strategies: A secret weapon to save time and money in the battle with cable

  • Fig. 1: VDSL2-bonding bit rates in KPN trial
  • Fig. 2: No. of copper pairs per household, selected countries, Aug-11
  • Fig. 3: VDSL-pair-bonding score card, by region, Aug-11

VDSL-vectoring strategies: The copper technology that's making FTTH look passe

  • Fig. 1: Ikanos vectoring test results
  • Fig. 2: Comparison of system-level and line-card-level vectoring
  • Fig. 3: Vectoring selected trials
  • Fig. 4: Vectoring scorecard by region

To what extent are DSL vectoring and sub-loop unbundling incompatible?

VDSL-from-the-central-office: The cheapest and easiest NGA option for both incumbents and unbundlers

  • Fig. 1: Selected VDSL-from-the-central-office deployments
  • Fig. 2: Copper-local-loop lengths by selected country
  • Fig. 3: Maximum download speeds offered over VDSL-FTCO by selected operators
  • Fig. 4: VDSL-FTCO scorecard by region

DSL acceleration: Phantom mode a longer-term option for operators

  • Fig. 1: 300Mbps over two pairs @ 400m - Bell Labs' phantom-mode demonstration
  • Fig. 2: Phantom-coupling circuit integrated into line card and in external black box
  • Fig. 3: Phantom-mode scorecard by region
  • Fig. 4: Selected phantom-mode announcements by operator, 2010-2011

G.Fast: The business rationale for copper 2.0 remains unclear

Case study: O2 Czech Republic's VDSL-FTCO strategy is pragmatic but no miracle cure

  • Fig. 1: UPC, broadband subscribers as % of cable TV subscribers, by country, 2Q11
  • Fig. 2: O2 and UPC fixed-broadband net additions, 2Q10-2Q11
  • Fig. 3: O2 Czech Republic, IPTV net additions, 1Q10-2Q11
  • Fig. 4: O2 Czech Republic, year-on-year fixed-line revenue changes

Case study: Belgacom makes the best of a bad hand with copper-centric NGA strategy

  • Fig. 1: Belgacom, VDSL population coverage, 2004-2010
  • Fig. 2: Telenet, fixed-broadband customers by download speed, end-2010
  • Fig. 3: Belgacom, IPTV households, 3Q05-1Q11
  • Fig. 4: Belgium and Netherlands, LLU penetration of DSL subscribers, 1Q09-1Q11
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