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Next Gen TV 2020

  • Published:
  • IDATE

In 2012, new video services account for EURO 7 billion of the world video market, which represents 3% of global video revenues. This report looks at the developments, key trends and disruptive items in the TV and video sectors, and presents IDATE's vision of what the market will look like by 2020. It presents the market assessment for 2011 and offers forecasts and statistics for future years.

Report key questions

  • Will strong growth in new video services compensate for the erosion of linear programming?
  • Will media groups be forced to look for growth in emerging countries?
  • What kind of market growth can we expect for the advertising-supported short programming market?
  • Can we expect an explosion of SVOD services?
  • What share of the new video services market can managed networks capture?
  • Why will the connected TV set become the primary device for receiving OTT services?
  • What kind of distribution strategies will we see from key players: media groups, telco operators, Internet providers, rights holders?

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Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology

3. 2020 scenarios

  • 3.1. Major changes by 2020
    • 3.1.1. Changes in video content consumption patterns
    • 3.1.2. Changes in video services
    • 3.1.3. Changes in video content distribution solutions
    • 3.1.4. Changes in business models
    • 3.1.5. Changes in commercial distribution: three competing strategies
  • 3.2. Evaluation of impacts by 2020
    • 3.2.1. The influence of new services on the video market in 2011
    • 3.2.2. Market distortions expected in 2020

4. Disruptive and innovating items

  • Smartphones and tablets: growth drivers for TV/video consumption?
  • 4.1. Smartphones mark the return of video on-the-go
  • 4.2. Growth in use parallel to expansion of smartphone line-up
  • 4.3. Usage at the expense of the TV?
  • 4.4. Are smartphones about to be replaced by tablets?
  • 4.5. A multifunctional tablet that has rapidly become popular
  • 4.6. High adoption of video services
  • 4.7. Tablets better suited to long-format video than other mobile devices
  • 4.8. But mobile devices still predominate
  • 4.9. More content being watched, rather than same content watched on a different device
  • 4.10. How is the situation likely to evolve?

5. Disruptive and innovating items

  • Multi-screen and access to content: the rise of ATAWAD
  • 5.1. Less attachment to owning content but a need for access
  • 5.2. A rationale that is fully understood by content providers as well as telco operators
  • 5.3. The need to develop ecosystems that enable access to content across all devices
  • 5.4. How is the situation likely to evolve?

6. Disruptive and innovating items

  • Companion devices: Promoting the growth of Social TV
  • 6.1. What is a companion device?
  • 6.2. Equipment & usage
  • 6.3. Companion screens are contributing to the emergence of Social TV
  • 6.4. How is the situation likely to evolve?

7. Disruptive and innovating items

  • The emergence of the connected TV
  • 7.1. The scope of connected TV
  • 7.2. Connected TV delivery models
  • 7.3. What ordering services are available for connected TV?
  • 7.4. Strategies used by key players in the connected TV market
  • 7.5. How is the situation likely to evolve?

8. Disruptive and innovating items

  • Release windows & cord-cutting
  • 8.1. Release windows: a value distribution tool
  • 8.2. The threat of cord-cutting
  • 8.3. Cord-cutting: What's at stake for the industry?
  • 8.4. How is the situation likely to evolve?

9. Disruptive and innovating items

  • The gradual containment of piracy
  • 9.1. Different forms of piracy
  • 9.2. P2P
  • 9.3. Direct download and streaming
  • 9.4. Changes in usage tied to the illegal consumption of video content
  • 9.5. Changes brought about by the shutting down of MegaUpload
  • 9.6. How is the situation likely to evolve?

10. Disruptive and innovating items

  • Community platforms: prime candidates for premium content distribution
  • 10.1. Near-universal adoption of online video...
  • 10.2. ..... largely driven by UGC sites stagnation.....
  • 10.4. ..... which benefits premium video services
  • 10.5. Integration of professional quality content with video community platforms
  • 10.6. Competition between social networks
  • 10.7. How is the situation likely to evolve?

Database structure

TV Data

  • TV households
  • Managed broadcast-only networks HH
  • Managed two-way networks HH
  • Broadband HH
  • Active connected TV HH
  • 3G/4G subscribers

Pay Services Take-up

  • Linear Pay-TV subscribers
  • Monthly ARPU linear pay-TV
  • SVOD service subscribers
  • Monthly ARPU SVOD
  • Managed VOD purchase per eligible HH per month
  • OTT VOD purchase per eligible HH per month
  • Mobile pay services subscribers (m)
  • Monthly ARPU Mobile SVOD
  • VOD purchase per 3G subscriber per month

Pay Services Market

  • Fixed Managed networks
    • Linear Pay-TV
    • SVOD
    • VOD
  • Fixed OTT
    • SVOD
    • VOD
  • Of which Connected TV
    • SVOD
    • VOD
  • Mobile
    • SVOD
    • VOD
  • Total Pay-TV services market
    • Linear Pay-TV
    • SVOD
    • VOD

Time spent per Average Individual

  • Fixed managed networks
    • Linear TV
    • Premium on demand services
  • Fixed OTT
    • Premium on demand services
    • Short clips
  • Of which connected TV
    • Premium on demand services
    • Short clips
  • Mobile
    • Premium on demand services
    • Short clips
  • Total time spent
    • Linear TV
    • Premium on demand
    • Short clips

The Advertising Market

  • Fixed managed networks
    • Linear TV
    • Premium on demand services
  • Fixed OTT
    • Premium on demand services
    • Short clips
  • Of which connected TV
    • Premium on demand services
    • Short clips
  • Mobile
    • Premium on demand services
    • Short clips
  • Total time spent
    • Linear TV
    • Premium on demand
    • Short clips

Total Video Market

  • Fixed managed networks market
  • Fixed OTT market
  • Of Which connected TV market
    • Mobile Video market

Total Video market

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