This publication has been discontinued on July 19, 2011.
Presentation
ADSL is shaking up the television market, not only because it is starting to compete with incumbent networks, but also because it raises the question of the connection between access and services, between television and the internet...
ADSL and DTT: a new turning point
- ADSL is creating a new area of competition with incumbent TV networks, and marks a decisive step in televisions migration to IP
- Despite the uncertainties, DTT is being deployed, and strengthening Free to air multichannel TV
- Cable is restructuring, and stepping up its marketing of triple play bundles
- Satellite is seeking post-analogue growth relays
Television becoming part of a package deal
- Is Internet the real loss leader?
- What impact on the price of pay-TV services?
- Difference in the strategies deployed by telcos and by TV service operators
Balance of the TV market shifting
- Renewed impetus for Free to air TV
- Rise of Free to air multichannel TV
- Pay-TV in need of redefining itself
Different scenarios on the various markets
- Lessons to draw from the United States and Japan
- The markets structural differences, Impact of cost levels
- Which network will come out ahead?
Contents
1/ HISTORY OF NETWORK DEPLOYMENT IN EUROPE
Analysis of each networks strengths and weaknesses
Coverage
- Topography and living conditions in European countries; the weight of history
- Satellite: limits of penetration in city zones, unknowns of shared antennae
- Cable: different levels of deployment in each country
- Terrestrial broadcasting: principal or residual network?
- ADSL: bottlenecks on the phone lines, and impact of ADSL 2
- Comparative view of the networks coverage in the different countries
Network capacity
- Two shared issues: progress in compression standards; future of HDTV still unknown
- Satellite: analogue switch off will increase capacity
- Cable: digitisation will free up capacity
- DTT: little capacity in the short term; long term prospect of taking over frequencies currently dicated to analogue
- ADSL: bitrates and bottlenecks
Digitisation
- Stakes that digitisation represents
- Satellite: all digital pay-TV; Free to air in the works
- Cable: cablecos new strategy of speeding up network digitisation
- DTT: uncertainties over launch
- ADSL: all digital from the outset
Evolution towards a bundled offering
- Technical issues
- Stakes and challenges of triple play bundles
- Homogenisation of regulatory frameworks
- Satellite: state of internet access offers ? other paths: combining networks?
- DTT: a TV offer only?
- Cable and ADSL: two rivals on the triple play market
2/ COMMERCIAL OFFERS
Television: shifting boundaries of paid and free offers
Which service drives triple play offers?
- Paying for access
- Paying for the service
Case study of existing offers
- Telephony-centric offers
- Television-centric offers
- What quality of service?
3/ COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY OF BROADCASTING NETWORKS
Cost structures
- Difficulties pinpointed in comparing the different networks costs: potentially sizeable differences in the services offered, the zone of coverage, the costs and the markets
- Components of the different networks economies: transport network, connection network, local loop, subscriber equipment
Comparison of the networks economies
- Network cost simulations, based on key parameters: nature of the service (TV only, or combined TV and internet access), the networks service zone, the services rate of penetration
- The networks efficiency, measured by one indicator: the annual per household cost of supplying a channel
- Results of the comparison of annual costs for supplying a channel
4/ OPERATORS
Distinct value chains
For each type of operator, evaluation of financial streams on the value-added chain:
- Satellite: separation of roles between the commercial operator and the network operator (Free to air channels, pay-TV channels)
- Terrestrial broadcasting: a single operator or separation of tasks? (Free to air channels, pay-TV channels)
- Cable: a single operator or separation of tasks: which scheme will dominate?
- ADSL: several schemes on trial
Disparate economic situations
- Cablecos: restructuring
- Satellite: seeking new growth paths
- ADSL: driving force of high-speed internet
- DTT: growth relay for TV broadcasting
- TV channels: general interest channels in the pink; shaky health for some specialty channels
Single or multi-network strategy?
- TV channels tending to increase their distribution networks
- Connection between cable operators and ADSL operators
- Satellite operators focused on a single area of business
- Terrestrial TV operators: looking to diversify?
- Network ownership is still more important than the service
5/ NETWORK DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR THE DIFFERENT EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Analytical components
- Case study: the situation in the United States
- Benchmark: the situation in Japan
- State of competition: the Free to air TV services market, the pay-TV services market, the internet access market
Competition scenarios
- Case 1: "Cable is king"
- Case 2: "Competition between cable & ADSL over bundled offers"
- Case 3: "ADSL shakes up the pay-TV market"
Market growth forecasts 2004-2009
For Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the UK
- Breakdown of TV households 2004-2009
- Breakdown of TV households by network
- Evolution of the breakdown of TV households by network 2004-2009
5/ CONCLUSION: WHO WILL BE THE WINNER?
- ...in terms of subscribers
- ... in terms of profitability
- ... in terms of minimising risk
