Mobile Broadband: Impact on the telecom industry

This publication has been discontinued on November 23, 2011.

Introduction

Abstract

4.4 billion Mobile subscribers around the globe by 2011, and the growing ubiquity of mobile broadband. This report provides analysis of the technological and economic issues surrounding mobile broadband that both operators and equipment manufacturers are having to contend with. It examines the solutions being rolled out by operators to spur the development of their mobile broadband offers.

• What opportunities and threats does mobile broadband create for operators and equipment manufacturers?
• What are the technical-economic issues involved in mobile broadband for operators?
• What are the key figures on the mobile data market worldwide?
• What technologies and infrastructure are already in place?
• Is there a consensus and convergence on innovations?
• How are equipment manufacturers positioned with respect to the different wireless access standards, and the corresponding markets?

Table of Contents

1. Mobile broadband already a reality

• 1.1. Services: promises and challenges of 3G/3G +
• 1.2. 3G rollouts
  • 3G infrastructure coverage
  • Number of 3G subscribers
• 1.3. Mobile data in the most mature markets
  • Mobile ARPU levelling off in the major markets Growth of data services and ARPU
• 1.4. Mobile broadband: both an opportunity and threat for operators
  • Vehicles of change: regulation and level of competition
  • Opportunities inherent in data ARPU
• 1.5. Growing number of data flat rates

2. Technologies: the era of choice

• 2.1. Operators' expectations: performances, IPR, handsets and cost
  • Operators take the wheel: the NGMN alliance
  • Gains and performance: speed and latency
• 2.2. Consensus on innovation
  • Technological convergence
  • Intellectual property rights: major holders and costs
• 2.3. Wireless spectrum issues
  • Regulatory changes
  • Spectrum requirements
  • IMT Advanced and CMR 2007 candidate frequencies

3. Opportunities and threats for equipment manufacturers

• 3.1. The mobile equipment market
  • Network equipment market still at the centre of the mobile ecosystem
  • Handset market
  • Competition and concentration
• 3.2. Ultra-fast mobile broadband rollouts will reshuffle the cards
  • Operators' investments driving the equipment market
  • Making the transition from one generation to the next
  • TD-SCDMA: competitor in the Chinese market
  • South Korea: development of WiBro and contribution to the different standards
• 3.3. 3GPP LTE ecosystem dominates
  • LTE: the choice of operators and equipment manufacturers
  • WiMAX ecosystem: smaller and dependant on Intel
• 3.4. SWOT analysis of the different standards

4. Central issues for operators: rollout timetable and the technical-economic equation

• 4.1. Growing capacity requirements
  • Increasing number of mobile broadband subscribers
  • Capacity needs of mobile data services
  • Mobile internet connectivity needs weighing on the networks
  • Massive surge in data traffic
• 4.2. Stepped-up timetables
  • Accelerated growth of sales for the latest generation of handsets
  • New rollouts required starting in 2012 - 2014
  • Deployment of LTE: acceleration in Japan and the US, possible delays in Europe
• 4.3. Meeting the rise in traffic: an insoluble technical-economic equation for operators?
  • One objective: reduce the cost per Mb transported
  • Improving technological performance not a cure-all
  • More spectrum for greater capacity: a limited, medium-term solution
  • Network densification: complicated and expensive
  • Femtocells and convergence between fixed and mobile networks: the miracle solution that still needs to prove itself

• Interviews
  • This report draws on a series of interviews with major players in Europe, Asia and the United States: equipment manufacturers, operators and institutional actors.
• Modelling
  • The detailed results presented in this report derive from the use of an exclusive model developed by IDATE
    • Cost per Mb transported on HSPA and LTE networks
    • Growth of traffic and capacity needs
    • HSPA and LTE network rollout timetable
    • Key factors and examination of the sensitivity to parameters
    • Assessment of the different solutions being implemented by operators for managing the technical-economic equation of mobile broadband

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