Television 2020: The Web Migration

This publication has been discontinued on November 23, 2011.

Introduction

Abstract

This report provides a look at the future shape of the TV market, based on a forward-looking analysis that combines

• an in-depth diagnosis of the sector,
• an analysis of the macro-economic trends
• and a set of development scenarios, with figures for Europe and United States.

• Can we make a distinction between current upheavals and overriding trends in the sector?
• How to measure the issues tied to key innovations: new viewing habits, revolutionised access, changes in TV and video services, a redistribution of sources of financing?
• How will media companies emerge from the crisis?
• Is there a shift towards integrated pan-European conglo- merates?
• What are the most likely development scenarios for TV?
  • "My Video Web"
  • "Broadcasting as Usual"
  • "Community TV"

Market figures for each of the countries examined (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States): TV reception modes, Viewing time, Advertising market, Pay-TV market

Methodology

This report provides development scenarios for the TV and video sector up to 2020, based on macro-economic scenarios that integrate hypotheses on the market environment, lifestyle and the networking individual, and by combining:

• analysis of the key development factors:usage, access, services, financing and market players
• construction of TV 2020 scenarios: IDATE shares its view of the expected development trajectory for each of the key issues. Their combination forms the basis of development scenarios for the TV sector as a whole.
• figures for the benchmark scenario: the scope of analysis includes developed countries, with figures for the benchmark scenario applying to the United States and Western Europe' s five main markets: Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the UK.

IDATE has identified 20 factors, broken down into 5 categories, which will shape the TV sector' s evolution. The combination of the expected development path for each factor allows us to establish exclusive scenarios - one of which IDATE has selected as the benchmark scenario, for which figures are provided. The impact and scope of these developments allow us to paint a detailed view of the future state of the television market, and to provide users with a set of benchmark figures, market data and national forecasts up to 2020.:

• Access
• 1. Managed networks and open networks
• 2. The digital home and devices

• Financing
• 3. Advertising market
• 4. Pay-TV
• 5. Public financing

• The players
• 6. Content providers
• 7. Telcos
• 8. Internet companies
• 9. CE manufacturers
• 10. Regulators

• Usage
• 11. TV' s role in leisure time
• 12. Time-shifted viewing
• 13. Piracy and free content
• 14. Development of social networks
• 15. Consumers as content producers

• Services
• 16. Picture quality
• 17. Services on demand
• 18. Enhanced TV
• 19. Mobile TV
• 20. New TV services' weight in the equation

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology

3. The Scenarios

• 3.1. Three macro-economic scenarios
  • 3.1.1. Key variables
  • 3.1.2. The withdrawal scenario
  • 3.1.3. The social networking scenario
  • 3.1.4. The tribe scenario
• 3.2. TV scenario construction
  • 3.2.1. Approach
  • 3.2.2. Key factors, according to the three macro-economic scenarios
    • Uses
    • Access
    • Services
    • Financing
    • Player strategies
• 3.3. TV 2020: three disruption scenarios
  • 3.3.1. Scenario 1: "Broadcast as Usual"
  • 3.3.2. Scenario 2: "My Video Web"
  • 3.3.3. Scenario 3: "Community TV"
  • 3.3.4. Figures for the benchmark scenarios
    • Which benchmark scenario?
    • Scenario figures
    • Overall modelling results
• 3.4. Crisis caused by migration to the Web

4. Key Innovation Factors

• 4.1. A third phase in the TV market' s development
• 4.2. Key factors to the TV sector' s evolution

5. Key Innovation Factors: Consumption

• 5.1. TV viewership, 2000-2008
  • Individual TV viewing on the rise
  • A 2nd generation of general entertainment channels
• 5.2. Television' s role in people' s leisure time
  • TV: most time devoted to ICT
  • TV: a small part of households' ICT budget
• 5.3. Time-shifted viewing
  • Audience moving away from live viewing
  • Internet enabling time-shifted viewing
• 5.4. Piracy and free content
• 5.5. Role played by social networks
• 5.6. Consumers as content producers
  • User-created content or User-distributed content?

6. Key Innovation Factors:Access

• 6.1. State of affairs: accessing TV
  • 6.1.1. New video networks
  • 6.1.2. Mobile video networks
    • DVB-T & DVB-H, Wi-Fi & WiMAX, the IP chain
• 6.2. Integration into the digital home
  • 6.2.1. New video devices
  • 6.2.2. Three visions of the digital home
    • The terminal-centric household: PC or TV
    • The user-centric household
    • The network-centric household: online or local
  • 6.2.3. The shift to Open TV
  • 6.2.4. Device + service bundles

7. Key Innovation Factors:Services

• 7.1. TV & Video services, 2000-2008
  • TV channels: growth or consolidation?
  • HD DVD: growth outlet?
• 7.2. Picture quality: what role for 3D?
• 7.3. Services on demand
  • 7.3.1. Video on demand
  • 7.3.2. Catch-up TV
• 7.4. Enhanced TV
• 7.5. Mobile services
• 7.6. Role of online video services

8. Key Innovation Factors:Financing

• 8.1. TV financing, 2000-2008
  • TV' s share of advertising spending
  • Pay-TV driving market growth
• 8.2. Advertising: competition & decreasing prices
  • Changes to the Web on TV model
  • Internet and advertising
  • Key role of agencies and ad space sellers
• 8.3. Pay-TV
  • Premium channels: high end, innovation
  • Specialty channel packages
  • Conflicts in the value chain
• 8.4. Public financing

9. Player Strategies

• 9.1. Initiatives from content providers
  • Must-see vs. syndication
  • TV channels' online strategies
  • Premium video and back catalogue
• 9.2. Other players
  • Associated documents
    • Database & forecasts (Excel): France,
  • Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States
    • Summary (PowerPoint)

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