Hybrid and Electric Car Traction Batteries - The New Gold Rush 2012-2022

Introduction

Abstract

New market for batteries that propel hybrid and pure electric cars

This report is intended for industrialists, investors, market researchers, legislators and others interested in the large new market now being created for batteries that propel hybrid and pure electric cars along the road. It will also inform those studying associated technology and industrial and government initiatives and legislation. The report is suitable for the non technical reader, with introductory appendices and glossary for those new to the subject. However, there are many comparison graphs, tables and sections concerning technical aspects, so those with appropriate technical training will find much to interest them as well.

Few markets have ignored the global financial meltdown and continued to grow extremely rapidly. Car traction batteries are one of these, so it is not surprising that they are referred to as the new gold rush. It is now powered by huge government and corporate investment and a flood of exciting new models of electric car.

One way of prospering in a gold rush is to “get there first and sell shovels” and, in this report, we do cover the supply of key materials, such as lithium and lanthanum, for the new types of battery that are rapidly being adopted. We also compare the different options of chemistry and construction and the nanotechnology and other materials skills being brought to bear. These are the shovels. However, the main emphasis in this report is on detailed forecasting by application, region etc of both the new cars and the batteries that go in them, including prices and numbers. There are also detailed profiles of over 50 organisations and their alliances involved in these batteries. Many are putting down the “entry fee” of one billion dollars to have a chance of being a world leader in traction batteries for cars.

This report leads you to commercial success. It is the only up to date, comprehensive reference book on car traction batteries worldwide. Researched by a team that has been studying the market for ten years, the report is frequently updated because the subject is moving so fast. You will therefore get the very latest version when you place your order.

The market for car traction batteries will be over $54 billion in 2022. How do we get there? Who will be the leading supplier? Who has the best chemistry and the largest financial commitment? Who has the largest amount of appropriate experience and who has their batteries designed into what new cars? What small companies would be interesting acquisitions and what are the objectives of the giant corporations entering part of this value chain for the first time? It is all here, pulled together with summary tables, graphs and illustrations and no equations. This is a high stakes game that will be key to saving the planet and the car industry and those hit by dependence on declining oil reserves. Appropriately, it has been said that, “In future, the battery is the car”. The winning supplier will create a new, highly profitable ten billion dollar activity and there will be many prospering niche players and materials and technology suppliers.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

• 1.1. The decade of hybrid vehicles
• 1.2. Total car traction battery market value 2012-2022
• 1.3. The market for traction batteries for new cars
• 1.4. Cells - modules - battery packs
• 1.5. Replacement car traction battery pack market 2010-2020
  • 1.5.1. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
  • 1.5.2. Winning chemistry
  • 1.5.3. Winning lithium traction battery manufacturers
  • 1.5.4. Making lithium batteries safe
• 1.6. Fuel cells
• 1.7. Traction batteries today
  • 1.7.1. Envia breakthrough in 2012
• 1.8. How to improve lithium car traction batteries
• 1.9. Expected car traction battery improvement 2009-2020
• 1.10. Other potential winners

2. INTRODUCTION

• 2.1. Success with other EVs
• 2.2. Sad history of on-road electric cars then a tipping point
  • 2.2.1. Why on-road cars are so very different
  • 2.2.2. Dramatic tipping point in 2009 - the market comes alive
  • 2.2.3. Consumer acceptance of the latest hybrids
  • 2.2.4. Rapid recent progress with pure electric vehicles
• 2.3. The ideal car traction battery
  • 2.3.1. All hybrids
  • 2.3.2. Mild hybrids
  • 2.3.3. Plug in hybrids
  • 2.3.4. Pure electric vehicles
  • 2.3.5. Recent progress
• 2.4. Traction battery achievements and problems so far
  • 2.4.1. Batteries for the best seller - the Prius hybrid
  • 2.4.2. China resurgent
  • 2.4.3. Specifications
  • 2.4.4. Changfeng hybrid
  • 2.4.5. Bright Automotive hybrid
  • 2.4.6. Chevrolet Volt hybrid
  • 2.4.7. Pure electric family cars - the race for range
  • 2.4.8. New Power of China pure electric
  • 2.4.9. BYD of China pure electric and hybrid
  • 2.4.10. Tesla pure electric
  • 2.4.11. Lightning pure electric
  • 2.4.12. Subaru Stella pure electric
  • 2.4.13. Nissan Leaf
• 2.5. Design considerations
  • 2.5.1. Future evolution of hybrids and pure electric cars
  • 2.5.2. Battery performance over time - battery life
  • 2.5.3. Battery state of charge
  • 2.5.4. Depth of discharge affects life
  • 2.5.5. Capacity rating
  • 2.5.6. Daily depth of discharge
  • 2.5.7. Charging and discharging rates
  • 2.5.8. Plug in requirements align with pure electric cars
  • 2.5.9. Hybrids need power and pure electrics need capacity - for now
  • 2.5.10. Parallel hybrids differ
  • 2.5.11. Plug in hybrids try to be the best of both worlds
  • 2.5.12. Watt hours per mile
  • 2.5.13. Charging rates
  • 2.5.14. Custom packaging
• 2.6. Charging infrastructure
  • 2.6.1. Need for standard connection
  • 2.6.2. Need for widespread charging infrastructure
  • 2.6.3. Battery changing as an alternative, Volt, e-Smart, Bee
• 2.7. Government support
  • 2.7.1. The Chinese billions
  • 2.7.2. The Obama billions

3. CHEMICAL, PHYSICAL AND ELECTRICAL OPTIONS COMPARED

• 3.1. Comparison of electrochemical options
  • 3.1.1. Volumetric vs gravimetric energy density
  • 3.1.2. Supercapacitors can help
  • 3.1.3. Lithium challenges
  • 3.1.4. Lead acid is simple
  • 3.1.5. Needs
• 3.2. Lead acid improvement
  • 3.2.1. Bipolar lead acid
  • 3.2.2. Nickel metal hydride
  • 3.2.3. Sodium
  • 3.2.4. Zinc air
  • 3.2.5. The many lithium options
  • 3.2.6. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
  • 3.2.7. Genuinely Solid State Traction Batteries
• 3.3. Department of Energy evaluation
• 3.4. New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization evaluation
• 3.5. How to improve lithium-ion batteries
  • 3.5.1. View of US Department of Energy panel of experts
  • 3.5.2. Improving the charge-discharge speed of lithium-ion batteries
  • 3.5.3. Improving life
• 3.6. Intrinsically safe lithium-ion batteries
  • 3.6.1. Intrinsically safe against fire
  • 3.6.2. Intrinsically safe against over charging
  • 3.6.3. Trends in energy storage vs battery pack voltage
• 3.7. Supercabatteries
  • 3.7.1. Lead carbon
• 3.8. Materials vulnerable to price hikes
  • 3.8.1. Lithium
  • 3.8.2. Lanthanum

4. PROGRESS WITH NEW GENERATION LITHIUM TRACTION BATTERIES

• 4.1. Introduction
• 4.2. Lithium manganese
• 4.3. Lithium iron phosphate
  • 4.3.1. Recharging breakthrough
• 4.4. Lithium air and lithium metal
• 4.5. Lithium sulfur
  • 4.5.1. Other challenges

5. SAFETY OPTIONS

• 5.1. Preventing explosion or fire
• 5.2. Preventing radiation
• 5.3. Electric shock
• 5.4. Poisonous gas

6. PROFILES OF 41 DEVELOPERS AND PRODUCERS

• 6.1. A123Systems USA with GE USA and Fisker
  • 6.1.1. GE has its own battery plant
• 6.2. Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT) China
• 6.3. Altair Nanotechnologies (Altairnano) USA
• 6.4. Automotive Energy Supply Japan, NEC, Nissan
• 6.5. Axeon UK
• 6.6. BASF Germany and Sion Power USA
  • 6.6.1. BASF licenses Argonne Lab's cathode material
• 6.7. Blue Energy, Lithium Energy Japan - GS Yuasa Japan with Honda, Mitsubishi
• 6.8. Bollore France and Pininfarina
• 6.9. BYD China with Volkswagen etc
  • 6.9.1. Volkswagen
  • 6.9.2. Car superlatives
  • 6.9.3. Plans for the USA
• 6.10. China BAK in China
• 6.11. Coda Battery Systems, Lio Energy Systems, Yardney USA, Tianjin Lishen China
• 6.12. Continental Germany and ENAX Japan
• 6.13. East Penn Manufacturing Corporation
• 6.14. Electrovaya Canada
• 6.15. EnerDel USA and Nissan
  • 6.15.1. US DOE grant
  • 6.15.2. Impressive production facility
  • 6.15.3. Fireproof lithium
  • 6.15.4. Link with Nissan
• 6.16. Enerize USA and Fife Batteries UK
• 6.17. Envia Systems USA
• 6.18. Evonik Industries Germany and Daimler
• 6.19. Furukawa Battery Japan
• 6.20. Hitachi Japan
• 6.21. IBM and National laboratories USA
• 6.22. Inci Holding Turkey
• 6.23. KD Advanced Battery Group Dow USA Kokam Korea
• 6.24. LG Chem Korea with Compact Power, GM etc
  • 6.24.1. US DOE grant
• 6.25. LiFeBATT Taiwan
• 6.26. Lithium Technology Corporation/GAIA USA
• 6.27. MAGNA STEYR AG & Co KG
• 6.28. Mitsubishi Japan with Sumitomo Japan
• 6.29. Next Alternative Germany, Micro Bubble Technology Korea
• 6.30. Panasonic EV Energy, Sanyo Japan with Toyota, Volkswagen
  • 6.30.1. 112 billion dollar merger
  • 6.30.2. Panasonic EV Energy
  • 6.30.3. Toyota demand
  • 6.30.4. NiMH leadership, potential lithium leadership
• 6.31. Planar Energy Devices
• 6.32. PolyPlus Battery USA
• 6.33. PowerGenix USA
• 6.34. ReVolt Technologies Ltd Switzerland
• 6.35. Saft France, Johnson Controls USA, with Ford, BMW, Daimler
  • 6.35.1. Saft
  • 6.35.2. Johnson Controls
  • 6.35.3. Joint venture
• 6.36. Sakti3 USA and General Motors
• 6.37. SB LiMotive Co. Ltd - Samsung Korea with Bosch Germany
• 6.38. Sony Japan
• 6.39. Superlattice Power USA
• 6.40. Toshiba Japan
• 6.41. Valence Technologies USA

7. MARKET FORECASTS FOR HYBRID AND PURE ELECTRIC CARS 2010-2020

• 7.1. Car production
• 7.2. Cars and crude oil
  • 7.2.1. Technical progress
• 7.3. Hybrid cars
  • 7.3.1. History of hybrid car sales
• 7.4. Forecasts 2010-2020
• 7.5. Pure EVs
  • 7.5.1. Total market
  • 7.5.2. Will sales of pure electric cars overtake hybrids?
  • 7.5.3. Market excluding golf cars
  • 7.5.4. Golf cars
  • 7.5.5. Fuel cell EVs

APPENDIX 1: INTRODUCTION TO BATTERIES

APPENDIX 2: INTRODUCTION TO SUPERCAPACITORS

APPENDIX 3: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY

• 1.1. Comparison of the price, performance, safety compromise of lithium-ion traction battery packs
• 1.2. Projection of electric car battery packs (based on one per vehicle) number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.3. Number of hybrid and pure electric cars sold and those that plug in thousands 2012-2022
• 1.4. Market forecasts for traction battery packs for new cars in units, ex factory price and value 2010-2020
• 1.5. Replacement market for car traction battery packs in value $ million 2010-2020
• 1.6. 71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
• 1.7. How to reduce the cost and increase the performance of lithium car traction batteries.
• 1.8. Improvement in cost and performance of hybrid and pure electric vehicle traction battery packs 2009-2020
• 1.9. Links between Japanese and Korean car manufacturers and lithium traction battery manufacturers in 2010
• 1.10. Links between European car manufacturers and lithium traction battery manufacturers in 2010
• 1.11. Links between US and other car manufacturers and lithium traction battery manufacturers.
• 2.1. Prius NiMH traction battery evolution
• 2.2. Applicants to accelerate the manufacturing and deployment of the next generation of US batteries and electric vehicles
• 3.1. Properties of metals used in metal air batteries
• 3.2. Examples of energy density figures for batteries, supercapacitors and other energy sources
• 3.3. Comparison of lead acid and lithium traction batteries in cars
• 3.4. How to reduce the cost and increase the performance of lithium car traction batteries
• 4.1. Typical lithium iron phosphate traction battery
• 6.1. GS Yuasa Corporation consolidated financial highlights (in billions of yen unless specified)
• 6.2. BYD financials
• 7.1. Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
• 7.2. Global oil reserves, production and life
• 7.3. Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of units and ones that can be plugged in 2009-2019
• 7.4. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in value ex-factory $ billion 2009-2019
• 7.5. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
• 7.6. Prius US sales in units 2000-2008
• 7.7. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole.
• 7.8. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
• 7.9. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
• 7.10. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
• 7.11. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
• 7.12. Approximate number of hybrid models actual and planned by year 2000 to 2013
• 7.13. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 7.14. Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids
• FIGURES
• 1.1. Projection of electric car battery packs number thousands, 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.2. Projection of electric car battery packs ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.3. Projection of electric car battery packs total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.4. Number of hybrid and pure electric cars sold in thousands 2012-2022
• 1.5. Market forecasts for traction battery packs for new cars in units 2010-2020
• 1.6. Market forecasts for traction battery packs for new cars ex factory price 2010-2020
• 1.7. Market forecasts for traction battery packs for new cars value 2010-2020
• 1.8. Comparison of cells, modules and battery packs.
• 1.9. Replacement market for car traction battery packs in value $ million 2010-2020
• 1.10. Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.
• 1.11. The UPS 747 that crashed in the UAE with a shipment of lithium batteries
• 1.12. Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric cars showing the convergence of hybrid and a pure electric technologies.
• 1.13. Prototype gas turbine suitable as range extender
• 1.14. Traction battery pack nominal energy storage vs battery pack voltage for mild hybrids in red, plug on hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in green
• 1.15. Volumetric vs gravimetric energy density of batteries used in vehicles.
• 2.1. Series parallel hybrid by Pieper of Belgium in 1899 - principle of today's best selling hybrid the Toyota Prius
• 2.2. Toyota Prius NiMH traction battery
• 2.3. Toyota Highlander Hybrid Battery
• 2.4. Changfeng CS7
• 2.5. Zhong Tai pure electric car by New Power of China
• 2.6. The BYD E6 pure electric car
• 2.7. Tesla Motors Roadster pure electric performance car
• 2.8. Tesla battery pack with coolant tubes at bottom.
• 2.9. The Lighting pure electric sports car
• 2.10. Subaru Stella pure electric vehicle
• 2.11. The planned Nissan Leaf pure electric car
• 2.12. Nissan leaf lithium traction batteries
• 2.13. Nissan Leaf charging points
• 2.14. Nissan Leaf dashboard
• 2.15. Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric cars showing the convergence of hybrid and a pure electric technologies
• 2.16. Frazer Nash Namir
• 2.17. Battery specification based on end of life
• 2.18. Car traction battery operating requirements compared
• 2.19. Example of a proposed SAE J1772™ charging interface for cars
• 2.20. Toyota Prius being charged
• 2.21. Chevrolet Volt
• 2.22. Electric Smart car
• 2.23. Bee's Bee. One four-seater compact car with fast change battery
• 3.1. Volumetric vs gravimetric energy density of batteries used in vehicles.
• 3.2. Energy density vs power density for storage devices
• 3.3. ReVolt comparison of battery parameters with zinc air
• 3.4. Properties of various lithium technologies for traction batteries compared to zinc air
• 3.5. LiFeBATT 40138 Cell
• 3.6. Traction battery nominal energy storage vs battery pack voltage for mild hybrids in red, plug on hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in green
• 4.1. Future improvement in power and energy density
• 4.2. Subaru lithium ion manganese battery
• 4.3. Mitsubishi lithium-ion batteries for cars
• 4.4. In wheel system of Mitsubishi
• 4.5. Improved lithium phosphate cathode material in a Petri dish
• 4.6. Lithium air batteries
• 4.7. Li-S Cell Configuration
• 4.8. Ragone plots for different rechargeable systems
• 4.9. Active Materials Transformation Diagram
• 4.10. Prototype lithium sulfur battery by Sion Power
• 5.1. A typical gasoline fire
• 5.2. Laptop fires caused by lithium cobalt batteries
• 5.3. Gasoline powered car after an explosion
• 6.1. Geographical distribution of 50 profiled on-road car traction battery and technology suppliers and aspiring suppliers excluding companies that are primarily car manufacturers
• 6.2. Chevrolet Volt lithium-ion battery
• 6.3. Chrysler electric minivan
• 6.4. Altairnano view of some of the primary performance advantages of its lithium traction batteries
• 6.5. Pininfarina Bollore B0 electric car powered by Bollore lithium polymer batteries
• 6.6. LEV electric car by Qingyuan Motors
• 6.7. Continental lithium ion traction battery
• 6.8. Safety testing of Continental lithium ion traction batteries.
• 6.9. East Penn lead acid battery for golf cars
• 6.10. Hummer H3 ReEV Lithium Ion SuperPolymer battery pack made by Electrovaya.
• 6.11. Enerdel traction battery
• 6.12. Furukawa Cycle-service storage battery for Golf Cars
• 6.13. 25Ah lithium-ion battery cell for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
• 6.14. Smith electric vehicle
• 6.15. LiFeBatt manufacture
• 6.16. Figure Magna Steyr traction battery pack capability
• 6.17. Magna Steyr energy battery for pure electric and plug in hybrid cars
• 6.18. Magna Steyr power battery for hybrid cars
• 6.19. Toshiba e-bike battery
• 7.1. Global bicycle and car production millions
• 7.2. US oil production and imports
• 7.3. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in numbers 2009-2019
• 7.4. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in value ex-factory $ billion 2009-2019
• 7.5. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
• 7.6. US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009
• 7.7. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole
• 7.8. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
• 7.9. Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006
• 7.10. Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009
• 7.11. Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007
• 7.12. Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007
• 7.13. US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer % 2007
• 7.14. Hybrid vehicle sales by model
• 7.15. 2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units
• 7.16. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %.
• 7.17. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers
• 7.18. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales
• 7.19. Total sales and hybrids
• 7.20. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 7.21. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 7.22. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded

Hybrid and Electric Car Traction Batteries - The New Gold Rush 2012-2022 published by IDTechEx Ltd. in December 1, 2012. This report consists of 293 pages and the price starts from US $ 3995.

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