“Small EV motors become a mere 25% of the electric vehicle motor market
value by 2023.”
Description
Today, the motors that propel electric vehicles on land, through water and in
the air are mainly brushless because brushed commutator motors are on the way
out. Most of the number and the value of those brushless traction motors lies
in permanent magnet synchronous ones, notably Brushless DC "BLDC", a form with
trapezoidal waveform, and Permanent Magnet AC "PMAC", a type with a sinusoidal
waveform. No matter: they both have excellent performance including simple
provision of reverse and regenerative braking. However, that dominance is
about to change. The main reason is not those well publicised but elusive
in-wheel motors coming in at two to six per vehicle but simply the move to
much larger vehicles and therefore motors.
Small vehicles today
At present, half of the money spent on traction motors for electric vehicles
concerns very small vehicles such as mobility scooters and power chairs for
the disabled that are so popular in Europe and the USA, mobile robots in the
home in Japan and "walkies" meaning pedestrian- operated golf caddies very
popular in Japan, stair walkers, motorised lifters, sea scooters that pull the
scuba diver and, of course, those hugely popular two wheelers in China with 34
million e-bikes alone sold worldwide in 2011. Add tiny quad bikes, All Terrain
Vehicles ATVs, go-karts and golf cars and their derivatives. 92% of electric
vehicle traction motors are currently needed for those small vehicles and they
are therefore sold substantially on price.
Big vehicles tomorrow
In a huge change in mix in the electric vehicle market and therefore the
electric motor market, those small EV motors become a mere 25% of the electric
vehicle motor market value in 2022 as the big vehicles, and therefore big
motors, become very successful. For example, the value of the market for
military electric vehicles increases over 20 times as military forces buy
battlefield hybrids rather than just small pure electric runabouts. The bus
market value rockets nearly seven times as China, in particular, buys huge
numbers of large hybrid versions as part of its national transportation plan.
Better reported is the burgeoning electric car market where hybrid versions in
particular are behind a nearly six fold growth in market value over the coming
decade. All this turns the world of traction motors on its head.
Different motors needed
The electric motors that are required for the bulk of the market by value are
becoming much higher in power and torque. For example, an Autonomous
Underwater Vehicle AUV - like a torpedo but making its own decisions - can
push 400 kW, a large forklift or bus delivers 250-350 kW per motor but cars
typically need up to 70kW per motor with a low-cost electric bicycle merely
offering a 0.25 kW motor. At the large end, torque from the traction motor is
up to 6000 Nm yet only 0.2 to 0.5 Nm is needed by many two wheelers and
mobility vehicles for the disabled. The heavy end is territory where the
asynchronous motor is winning now that its performance has improved and the
cost of the control electronics has been got under control. For example, the
Heavy Industrial category refers to heavy lifting as with forklifts and mobile
cranes and here IDTechEx finds that 89% fit asynchronous motors otherwise
known as AC induction - brushless traction motors with no permanent magnets.
Around 63% of military vehicles and 52% of large buses fit asynchronous motors
on our analysis of 212 electric vehicles, past, present and planned. Toyota,
world leader in electric vehicles by a big margin, is using asynchronous
motors for its forklifts and buses and has now developed them for possible use
on its cars, which currently use permanent magnet motors.
Market value $US billion 2012-2023
Source: IDTechEx
Caution needed
Nonetheless, we must be very careful about sweeping generalisations. Many
experts believe that asynchronous motors will sweep the board at 5kW power
upwards. That is tantamount to saying that they will take over 70% of the
traction motor market value because there are even 5kW motors in golf cars and
the smallest leisure boats. Although the enthusiasts can point to such motors
used today in golf cars variants as one example, it is important to observe
the very rapid improvements in synchronous motors including taming the noise
and vibration of the switched reluctance synchronous motors that need no
expensive magnets. IDTechEx does not accept the conflict as one primarily
between those using expensive neodymium magnets and those with allegedly lower
inherent costs. In the larger electric vehicles performance matters more than
cost and anyway, asynchronous motors use a lot of expensive copper and control
circuitry.
Performance matters more
The winners in future traction motor markets will win on performance more than
price, this including very different criteria in different vehicles with many
problems still to solve. For example, Boeing has a contract to develop an
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UAV that can stay aloft for five years. It has
subcontracted Newcastle University in the UK to create a traction motor with
several times improvement in power- to-weight ratio in order to make this
possible. NASA's dream of small aircraft taking off purely under the power
from in-wheel motors may call for new motor designs as will the thunderbolt of
power from regenerative braking of landing airliners that then become electric
vehicles while on the ground. Fault tolerant motors are needed in other
applications and while Chorus Motors has developed an asynchronous one,
Protean Electric has announced an equally impressive synchronous one. Reducing
or eliminating the need for water cooling is a welcome advance as yet rarely
on offer with large motors. Working at the more efficient high voltages of
300-700V means less copper, thinner, more manageable wiring and less power
wastage. Not all motors meet these requirements.
In-wheel motors not as portrayed
We fear that only 2.5% of electric vehicles by land, water and air will have
multiple traction motors in 2022 and that may mean only 5.6% of traction
motors sold will be for multi-motor vehicles - mainly in-wheel motors for land
vehicles. That is big enough for two or three suppliers to make enduringly
profitable, substantial businesses out of supplying them but it is not a
primary route to leadership in the overall traction motor business. Of course,
in-wheel motors for single motor vehicles, notably two wheelers will be
separate from that and even more successful than they are today, maybe over
100 million of these being sold - largely on price - in 2022.
Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally
Source: IDTechEx
While there are a few asynchronous in-wheel motors, nearly all of the sales of
in-wheel motors concern the usually smaller synchronous versions, so let us
now look more closely at the glamorous world of in-wheel motors, already a
huge success in e-bikes, selling by the tens of millions. Here a warning comes
for Mitsubishi deciding not to use its in-wheel motors in its best-selling
MiEV pure electric car because of cost. Currently you cannot have several
motors for the price of one when you want to adopt in-wheel power. While motor
manufacturers hope that a price premium will be on offer where they eliminate
transmission and differential, there are problems of ride to finance and
concerns at Fiat, for example, about wheels jamming.
Wake up time
It is wakeup time for the electric vehicle traction motor industry. Our survey
of 123 manufacturers shows far too few making asynchronous or switched
reluctance synchronous motors and larger, high power, motors with strong
traction or even exceptionally light weight powerful motors. There are far too
many making traction motors with brushes. In short, this is an industry
structured for the past that is going to have a very nasty surprise when the
future comes. Most of it is not even talking to the vehicle manufacturers that
will spend most to buy traction motors in the years to come. Many think easy
money comes from pursuing the obvious, notably selling to the fearsomely
competitive electric car market where 90% of your customers are headed for
insolvency. In China alone, there are over 100 manufacturers of electric cars
and none are successful.
About IDTechEx Ltd.
IDTechEx offers independent market research and advice in selected emerging technologies to companies across the value chain, to support them in making essential strategic business decisions. Content expertise and IP in our chosen specialisms is available through provision of regularly-updated reports, advisory services, bespoke consulting services and events. Our technology experts are respected, high profile and well-connected in their fields.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Traction motor forecasts of numbers
1.2. Global value market for vehicle traction motors
1.3. Definition and background
1.4. Shape of motors
1.5. Location of motors
1.6. Unique major new survey
1.7. Blunt motor talk at EV Japan January 2012
1.8. Switched reluctance motors a disruptive traction motor technology?
1.9. Three ways that traction motor makers race to escape rare earths
1.9.1. Synchronous motors with no magnets - switched reluctance
1.9.2. Synchronous motors with new magnets
1.9.3. Asynchronous motors
1.9.4. More to come
1.10. Integration of motor and other parts
1.11. Industry consolidation
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. History of electric traction motors
2.2. Types of motor favoured in electric vehicles
2.2.1. Types of traction motor in summary
2.2.2. Asynchronous traction motors
2.2.3. Size and number of motors
2.2.4. Shapes of motor
2.2.5. Synchronous PM traction motors
2.2.6. Dealing with magnet cost
2.2.7. Main choices of EV motors in future
2.2.8. Axial flux vs radial flux motors
2.3. Sophisticated motors bridging gaps in performance
2.3.1. Advanced asynchronous motor variant - Chorus Motors
2.3.2. Advanced synchronous PM motor - Protean Electric
2.3.3. Motor position
2.3.4. The relative merits of the motor positions in electric bicycles
and e-bikes
2.3.5. Fraunhofer IFAM
2.4. Remaining challenges
2.4.1. In-wheel hybrids
2.4.2. Electric corner modules (ECMs)
2.4.3. Many in- and near-wheel motors: very few production wins
2.4.4. SIM Drive in wheel traction
2.4.5. In wheel motors for aircraft
2.4.6. Move to high voltage
2.4.7. Environmental challenges
2.4.8. Many options and many needs
2.4.9. Lack of standards
2.5. Electric outboard motors
2.5.1. Regen Nautic Inc USA
3. ANALYSIS OF 125 TRACTION MOTOR MANUFACTURERS
4. 212 ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND THEIR MOTORS
5. INTERVIEWS AND NEWLY REPORTED OPINION ON MOTOR TRENDS
5.1. Asynchronous vs Synchronous
5.2. Axial vs radial flux
5.3. Who will succeed with electric microcars
5.4. Extending the market
6. MARKET FORECASTS
6.1. Traction motor forecasts of numbers
6.2. Global value market for vehicle traction motors
6.3. Definition and background
6.4. Shape of motors
6.5. Location of motors
6.6. Unique major new survey
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2012-2023 in
thousands
1.2. Vehicle numbers (thousand) 2012-2023
1.3. Number of traction motors in multi-motor vehicles 2012-2023
(millions) and percentage of all vehicle traction motors rounded
1.4. Proportion of electric vehicles with more than one motor 2012-2023
1.5. Number of electric vehicles with more than one electric motor
2012-2023 in thousands and percentage of all electric vehicles rounded
1.6. Average number of motors per multi-motor vehicle 2011-2021
1.7. Proportion of electric vehicles with one motor 2012-2023
1.8. Number of electric vehicles with one electric motor ie number of
motors in single-motor vehicles in thousands
1.9. Price of traction motor(s) to vehicle manufacturer in $K per vehicle
1.10. Motor market value $ million paid by vehicle manufacturer 2012-2023
1.11. Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
1.12. Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction
motors for today's vehicles
1.13. Most likely winners and losers in the next decade
1.14. Supplier numbers listed by continent
1.15. Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country in alphabetical
order
1.16. Applications targeted by our sample of motor suppliers vs market
split, listed in order of 2012 market size
1.17. Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering
asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified
1.18. Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous
motors, where identified
1.19. Distribution of vehicle sample by applicational sector
1.20. Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options by category
in number and percentage of category, listed in order of declining
asynchronous percentage
1.21. 212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous,
power and torque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or
rough use is most typically encountered. The rated power and traction data are
enhanced
1.22. Percentage of old and abandoned models in the survey that use
asynchronous or synchronous motors
1.23. Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC
synchronous motors, by type of vehicle
1.24. Other motor features declared by vehicle manufacturers
1.25. Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction
electric motors
1.26. Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold
globally, 2012-2023, by applicational sector, rounded
1.27. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally,
2012-2023, by applicational sector, rounded
2.1. 2000 year history of electric traction motors and allied technologies
2.2. The main choices of electric vehicle traction motor technology over
the next decade.
2.3. A comparison of potential and actual electric traction motor
technologies
2.4. Comparison of outer-rotor and inner-rotor motors
2.5. Relative merits of the motor positions in electric bicycles and
e-bikes
2.6. Extracts from some Azure Dynamics traction motor specifications
2.7. Extracts from some ABB traction motor specifications in imperial units
3.1. 125 vehicle traction motor manufacturers by name, country,
asynchronous/synchronous, targeted vehicle types, claims and images
3.2. Supplier numbers listed by continent
3.3. Supplier numbers listed by country
3.4. Targeted applications vs market split.
3.5. Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering
asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified
3.6. Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous
motors, where identified
3.7. Examples of train traction motor suppliers
4.1. 212 electric vehicle manufacturers, vehicle examples, asynchronous or
synchronous motor used, motor details where given, motor manufacturer and
number of motors per vehicle.
4.2. Market value split over the next decade between different vehicle
categories
4.3. Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options by category
in number and percentage of category, listed in order of declining
asynchronous percentage.
4.4. 212 electric vehicle models analysed by category
4.5. Percentage of old and abandoned models in the survey that use
asynchronous or synchronous motors
4.6. Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using DC
synchronous motors, by type of vehicle
4.7. Other motor features declared by vehicle manufacturers.
4.8. Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction
electric motors
4.9. Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles.
4.10. Most mentioned motor suppliers
6.1. Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2012-2023 in
thousands
6.2. Vehicle numbers (thousand) 2012-2023
6.3. Number of traction motors in multi-motor vehicles 2012-2023 and
percentage of all vehicle traction motors rounded
6.4. Proportion of electric vehicles with more than one motor 2012-2023
6.5. Number of electric vehicles with more than one electric motor
2012-2023 in thousands and percentage of all electric vehicles rounded
6.6. Average number of motors per multi-motor vehicle 2012-2023
6.7. Proportion of electric vehicles with one motor 2012-2023
6.8. Number of electric vehicles with one electric motor ie number of
motors in single-motor vehicles in thousands
6.9. Price of traction motor(s) to vehicle manufacturer in $K per vehicle
6.10. Motor market value $ million paid by vehicle manufacturer 2012-2023
6.11. Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
6.12. Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction
motors for today's vehicles
6.13. Most likely winners and losers in the next decade
6.14. Supplier numbers listed by continent
6.15. Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country in alphabetical
order
6.16. Applications targeted by our sample of motor suppliers vs market
split, listed in order of 2012 market size
6.17. Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering
asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified
6.18. Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous
motors, where identified
6.19. Distribution of vehicle sample by applicational sector
6.20. Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options by category
in number and percentage of category, listed in order of declining
asynchronous percentage
6.21. 212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous,
power and torque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or
rough use is most typically encountered. The rated power and traction data are
enhanced
6.22. Percentage of old and abandoned models in the survey that use
asynchronous or synchronous motors
6.23. Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC
synchronous motors, by type of vehicle
6.24. Other motor features declared by vehicle manufacturers
6.25. Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction
electric motors
6.26. Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold
globally, 2012-2023, by applicational sector, rounded
6.27. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally,
2012-2023, by applicational sector, rounded
FIGURES
1.1. Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2012-2023 in
thousands
1.2. Motor market value $ million paid by vehicle manufacturer 2012-2023
1.3. Location of motors sold in 2022 in vehicles in which they are fitted,
in millions of motors and percent of all motors with all figures rounded
1.4. Supplier numbers listed by continent
1.5. Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country
1.6. Targeted applications on top vs market value split in 2012 centre and
2022 on bottom
1.7. Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering
asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified
1.8. Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC
synchronous motors, by type of vehicle
1.9. Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction
electric motors
1.10. Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold
globally, 2012-2023, by applicational sector, rounded
1.11. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally,
2012-2023, by applicational sector, rounded
2.2. Multiple electric motors on a NASA solar powered, unmanned aircraft
for the upper atmosphere
2.3. Bicycle hub motor rotor left and stator right
2.4. Axial flux in-wheel motor driving a bicycle and a propeller
2.5. 60/15 kW Chorus Meshcon motor
2.6. Protean in-wheel motor for on-road vehicles
2.7. Innovative electric bicycle motor
2.8. A motorcycle with off-center motor near hub
2.9. Mitsubishi in-wheel applications
2.10. Construction of an in-wheel motor
2.11. Mitsubishi in-wheel motor
2.12. Lohner-Porsche electric vehicle of 1898
2.13. Volvo ReCharge concept hybrid
2.14. Fraunhofer in-wheel motor on an Artega GT
2.15. Mine resistant ambush protected - All Terrain Vehicle MATV
2.16. MATV structure
2.17. Elaphe axial flux, permanent magnet synchronous traction motors of
unusually high power-to-weight and torque-to-weight ratio
2.18. SIM Drive in-wheel traction
2.19. EMRAX 222 Duplex Motor
2.20. Traction battery pack nominal energy storage vs battery pack voltage
for mild hybrids in red, plug in hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in
green
2.21. Thruster for Deepflight personal submarine
2.22. Propulsion systems of a swimmer AUV
2.23. New Intermotor brushless permanent magnet marine traction motor
2.24. Brothers Willisits pure electric outboard motor
2.25. EMotor 75kW pure electric outboard motor with synchronous permanent
magnet motor, asynchronous optional. The exposed motor is shown left.
2.26. CERV
2.27. CERV motor integration
2.28. Trolling electric outboard motors
2.29. Torqeedo advanced design of small electric outboard motor
2.30. Aquawatt electric outboard motor
2.31. Aquawatt electric outboard motor in action
2.32. The 180 hp outboard developed for Campion Marine of Canada
2.33. Unit and value sales of outboard motors in the European Union, the
USA and the rest of the world and trade flows
2.34. ReGen Nautic hybrid powertrain
5.1. Barefoot motor ATV motor in place
6.1. Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2012-2023 in
thousands
6.2. Motor market value $ million paid by vehicle manufacturer 2012-2023
6.3. Location of motors sold in 2022 in vehicles in which they are fitted,
in millions of motors and percent of all motors with all figures rounded.
Figures in red refer to high priced motors and figures in green refer to low
priced mo
6.4. Supplier numbers listed by continent
6.5. Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country
6.6. Targeted applications on top vs market value split in 2012 centre and
2022 on bottom
6.7. Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering
asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified
6.8. Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC
synchronous motors, by type of vehicle
6.9. Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction
electric motors
6.10. Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold
globally, 2012-2023, by applicational sector, rounded
6.11. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally,
2012-2023, by applicational sector, rounded
Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2013-2023: Forecasts, Technologies, Players published by IDTechEx Ltd. in May 1, 2013. This report consists of 261 Pages and the price starts from US $ 4250.
The contents of this page may be different from the latest version. Please contact us for details.
