“The only up-to-date report on the largest electric vehicle sector today.”
Those selling components for electric vehicles and those wishing to make the
vehicles themselves must seek where the majority of the money is spent and
will be spent. That must lead them to industrial and commercial electric
vehicles because today these represent 60% of the value of the electric
vehicle market. Indeed, this sector is set to grow 4.2 times in the next
decade. Industrial and commercial electric vehicles include heavy industrial
vehicles, the term referring to heavy lifting, as with forklifts.
Global sales of heavy industrial EVs by ex-factory unit price
Source: IDTechEx
Then we have buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and
commercial vehicles. There are also a few work boats and commercial boats and
one day there will be commercial electric aircraft but this is really a story
about the burgeoning demand for off-road industrial vehicles and on-road
commercial vehicles. In particular, industrial electric vehicles make industry
more efficient and commercial electric vehicles reduce congestion. Both of
them greatly reduce pollution and align closely with government objectives
concerning industry and the environment, yet they minimally depend on subsidy,
in contrast with some other electric vehicle types.
This report covers the technical and market trends for industrial and
commercial vehicles whether hybrid or pure electric, putting it in the context
of electric vehicles overall and including the activities of a host of
manufacturers of the vehicles and their components and even providing future
technological development roadmaps.
The market for electric industrial vehicles is already large because, by law,
forklifts have to be electric when used indoors. Little growth remains in this
market but outdoors almost all earthmoving and lifting vehicles use the
conventional internal combustion engine. That is about to change dramatically
because hybrid electric versions reduce cost of ownership and exposure to
price hikes with fossil fuels. Hybrids increasingly perform better as well,
with more power from stationary, ability to supply electricity to other
equipment and other benefits including less noise and pollution. On the other
hand, airports, often government owned or funded, are under great pressure to
finish converting their Ground Support Equipment GSE to pure electric versions
both on and off the tarmac partly using federal grants.
Yet another industrial trend is for use of electric vehicles to replace slow
and often dangerous manual procedures. Sometimes a self-powered indoor crane
replaces scaffolding. An electric stair climber replaces human effort and
possible injury. On the other hand, sit-on floor cleaners in buildings, sit-on
ice cleaners in ice rinks, outrider vehicles carried on trash collection
trucks and a host of similar solutions speed processes and reduce injuries and
costs.
Buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles
are going electric for similar reasons but we must add the desire of national
and local governments, who buy many of them, to go green, even where there is
no payback. However, the size and growth of the industrial and commercial
sector is less dependent on government funding and tax breaks than the more
fragile market for electric cars, particularly pure electric ones. Excitingly,
most of the electric vehicle technologies are changing and improving hugely
and innovation often comes here before it is seen in the more publicised
electric vehicle sectors such as cars.
Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs by numbers thousands
Source: IDTechEx
Asynchronous traction motors were first widely used on forklifts: their
benefits of longer life, less maintenance, low cost and freedom from magnet
price hikes and heating problems are only later being seen in a few cars.
Ultracapacitors otherwise known as supercapacitors permit very fast charging
of buses whether by the new Level 3 charging stations or regenerative braking
and they release huge surges of power when the bus is full and starting on a
hill. Gas turbine range extenders have been on some buses for 12 years but
they are only now being planned for cars. Fuel cells will be viable in fleets
where the expensive hydrogen distribution is manageable - not for cars across
the world. Energy harvesting shock absorbers about to hit the market will be
very viable on buses and trucks where they can put up to 12 kW into the
battery whereas such devices on cars will take longer to prove.
Nevertheless, it is important to look at industrial and commercial electric
vehicles as part of all electric vehicles out there - as we do - because it is
increasingly true that one company will produce EVs for many end uses and even
make key components. This achieves the product reliability and cost advantages
that come from highest volume manufacture based on standardisation and shared
research.
Main areas the report covers
The report provides forecasts of the heavy industrial, light industrial &
commercial, bus and taxi global markets by numbers, ex-factory price and total
market value for the coming decade. In addition to chapters on these sectors,
there are chapters on the market drivers, the key technologies and their
future trends all pulled together with summary charts, graphs and profiles of
latest company activity.
Forecasts
Industrial and commercial electric vehicles represent 60% of the value of the
electric vehicle market today and their market value will grow 4.2 times in
the next decade. The report gives ten year forecasts by sector, explaining
exactly why some sub sectors will see stellar growth and others will see very
little growth.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Scope of the report
1.2. Categories and trends
1.3. Forecasts 2012-2022
1.4. Market drivers
1.4.1. Synergies
1.4.2. Importance of battery price
1.5. Numbers of manufacturers
1.6. Full circle back to pure EVs
1.7. Key components
1.7.1. Batteries
1.7.2. Motors
1.7.3. Power trains
1.8. Winning strategies
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Definitions and scope of this report
2.1.1. Learning from the past
2.1. Hybrid and pure electric vehicles compared
2.2. Hybrid electric vehicles
3. MARKET DRIVERS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
3.2. Trends for all types of vehicle
3.2.1. Peak car and light truck - different electric vehicles needed
3.2.2. Market drivers for electric industrial and commercial vehicles
3.3. Hybrid market drivers
3.4. Advantages of electric commercial vehicles
4. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS
4.1. What is included
4.2. Industry challenges
4.3. Caterpillar USA
4.4. Nissan and Mitsubishi electric forklifts Japan
4.5. Toyota Japan
4.6. Zheijang Goodsense Forklift China
4.7. Listing of manufacturers
4.8. Market trends
4.9. Market forecasts 2012-2022
5. LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
5.1. What is included
5.2. Sub categories
5.3. Trucks
5.3.1. ALTe
5.3.2. Azure Dynamics
5.3.3. Balqon Pure Electric Trucks
5.3.4. Beiqi Foton Motor Co China
5.3.5. China Vehicles Company
5.3.6. Daimler Fuso
5.3.7. Freightliner, Enova, Daimler and Wal-Mart USA
5.3.8. Nano-Optonics Energy Japan
5.3.9. Odyne hybrid truck propulsion
5.3.10. Paccar with Eaton
5.3.11. Tyrano USA
5.4. EVs for local services
5.4.1. Ford Azure Dynamics
5.4.2. Ford Quantum
5.4.3. Peugeot Citroen and Mitsubishi Motors
5.4.4. UPS & NREL
5.4.5. Renault and DHL
5.5. Airport EVs
5.6. Small people-movers
5.7. Light industrial aids
5.7.1. Mining - PapaBravo Canada
5.8. Listing of manufacturers
5.9. Market forecasts 2012-2022
6. BUSES
6.1. History of electric buses
6.2. Pure electric buses
6.2.1. Smith - Wanxiang
6.3. MAN hybrid bus Germany: supercapacitor not battery
6.4. Market forecast for buses 2012-2022
7. TAXIS
7.1. Electric taxi projects in China, Europe, Mexico, UK, UK, Japan
7.2. Mitsubishi taxi rollout in Japan 2011
7.3. Mexico taxis late 2011
8. KEY COMPONENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
8.1. Types of electric vehicle
8.2. Many fuels
8.3. Born electric
8.4. Pure electric vehicles are improving
8.5. Series vs parallel hybrid
8.6. Modes of operation of hybrids
8.6.1. Plug in hybrids
8.6.2. Charge-depleting mode
8.6.3. Blended mode
8.6.4. Charge-sustaining mode
8.6.5. Mixed mode
8.7. Microhybrid is a misnomer
8.8. Deep hybridisation
8.9. Hybrid vehicle price premium
8.10. Battery cost and performance are key
8.11. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
8.12. Ultracapacitors=supercapacitors
8.13. Where supercapacitors fit in
8.14. Advantages and disadvantages
8.15. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
8.16. Supercabatteries or bacitors
8.17. What is a range extender?
8.18. What will be required of a range extender 2012-2022
8.19. Three generations of range extender
8.19.1. First generation range extender technology
8.19.2. Second generation range extender technology
8.19.3. Third generation range extender technology
8.20. Fuel cell range extenders
8.21. Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
8.22. Energy harvesting on and in electric vehicles
8.23. Trend to high voltage
8.24. Component choices for energy density/ power density
8.25. Trend to distributed components
8.26. Trend to flatness then smart skin
8.27. Traction batteries
8.27.1. After the shakeout in car traction batteries
8.27.2. The needs have radically changed
8.27.3. It started with cobalt
8.27.4. Great variety of recipes
8.27.5. Other factors
8.27.6. Check with reality
8.27.7. Lithium winners today and soon
8.27.8. Reasons for winning
8.27.9. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
8.27.10. Winning chemistry
8.27.11. Titanate establishes a place
8.27.12. Laminar structure
8.27.13. Niche winners
8.27.14. Fluid situation
8.28. Traction motors
8.29. Definition and background
8.30. Traction motor trends
8.31. Shape of motors
8.32. Location of motors
8.33. Born electric - In-Wheel Electric Motors
8.34. Examples of motors in action
8.35. EV Market 2011 and 2021
8.36. Total change
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
1.1. Relevant characteristics of the three categories of industrial and
commercial vehicle
1.2. Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by
numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
1.2. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide in
2010 by application with numbers for China
1.3. 212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous,
power and torque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or
rough use is most typically encountered. The rated power and traction data are
enhanced
1.3. Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy
trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit
price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars
2012-2022, round
1.4. Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value
2012-2022, rounded
1.5. Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value
2012-2022, rounded
3.1. Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
3.2. Some primary hybrid market drivers
3.3. Advantages of pure electric commercial vehicles, enjoyed to some
extent by hybrid electric buses
3.4. Potential challenges of electric commercial vehicles
4.1. Twenty examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
4.2. Distribution of trade volume for heavy industrial EVs
4.3. Global league table of powered industrial truck manufacturers 2010 by
value of sales
4.4. Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by
numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
4.5. Sales of heavy electric vehicles by region by percentage of units
5.1. 150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive
trains by country and examples of their products
5.1. Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy
trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit
price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars
2012-2022, round
5.2. Breakdown of global market in 2010 for light industrial and
commercial vehicles - global park, new vehicles, % electric, number electric,
ex-factory unit price and value for the subsections Full Size Buses, Other On
Road, Airport
6.1. 79 examples of manufacturers of hybrid electric buses or their power
trains (the main added value), with country of headquarters and image
6.2. 36 Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters and
image
6.3. Forecast for electric buses 2012-2022
7.1. Eight projects testing pure electric taxis
7.2. Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value
2012-2022, rounded
8.1. Three generations of range extender with examples of construction,
manufacturer and power output
8.2. Traction battery technologies in 2012, number percentage lead acid,
NiMH and lithium
8.3. Traction battery technologies in 2022 number percentage lead acid,
NiMH and lithium
8.4. Traction battery technology by applicational sector 2010 and 2020,
examples of suppliers and trends
8.5. What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
8.6. 71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers,
their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily
orders)
8.7. Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
8.8. Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction
motors for today's vehicles
8.9. 68 industrial and commercial electric vehicles and their motor
details.
8.10. Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by
numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
8.11. Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy
trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit
price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars
2012-2022, round
8.12. Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value
2012-2022, rounded
8.13. Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total
value 2012-2022, rounded
FIGURES
1.1. Global market in billions of dollars ex-factory for the different
categories of industrial and commercial electric vehicles
1.2. Numbers of EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2012-2022, by
applicational sector
1.3. Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold
globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
1.4. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally,
2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
1.5. Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by
numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
1.6. Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy
trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit
price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars
2012-2022, round
1.7. Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value
2012-2022, rounded
1.8. Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value
2012-2022, rounded
1.9. Electric vehicle upfront cost vs their traction battery energy storage
1.10. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide
by application in 2010
1.11. Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles in China by application
in 2010
1.12. Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric cars and other
electric vehicles
1.13. Some new commercial electric vehicles shown at eCarTec 2011.e
1.14. Isuzu hybrid truck acting as road furniture in Tokyo in 2012
2.1. EV sectors with the largest gross sales value and profits over the
years
2.1. Toyota hybrid outdoor forklift
2.2. Electric vehicle value chain
2.3. Advantages and disadvantages of hybrid vs pure electric vehicles and
the electric vehicle markets they dominate.
3.1. Efficiency in power needed per person per distance for different
forms of on-road passenger transport
Industrial and Commercial Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 2012-2022: Forecasts, Opportunities, Players published by IDTechEx Ltd. in November 1, 2012. This report consists of 237 Pages and the price starts from US $ 3995.
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