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Hybrid and Electric Buses and Taxis 2013-2023: Forecasts, Opportunities, Players

This is the world's first report forecasting the global market for electric buses and taxis both hybrid and pure electric. It separately forecasts the market in the most important country, China, and it takes a detailed look at technologies present and future with a blunt assessment of reasons for failure and threats for the future, not just the positive aspects. The market for electric buses and taxis will multiply over 8 times in the next decade, approaching $60 billion not long after that. The buses will be designed exclusively for purpose, though some will have power trains used for trucks as well. The taxis will largely consist of regular cars and people movers with modest adaptation. We explain why, for both, this is the decade of the hybrid but with pure electric versions coming up fast. China will become by far the largest market for both electric buses and electric taxis within the decade. This report looks at the statistics and trends for conventional buses and taxis, the government incentives, paybacks and new technologies with detailed tables and figures to summarise the situation, so the reader can understand the situation with ease. There are no rambling anecdotes or cut and paste of catalog items here - this is all summary, comparison and prediction with numbers, unit values, specifications and a profusion of images.

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This uniquely up to date reference book is extremely thorough. Just one of the tables lists 78 hybrid bus manufacturers with country and product image, another lists 53 pure electric bus manufacturers with country and product image and another compares 68 lithium-ion traction battery manufacturers with cathode and anode chemistry and other technical detail and who is using these batteries - naming bus, car and other companies using them, explaining who is winning and why. There is a table comparing eight electric taxi projects with country, image and commentary, including technical detail, and another comparing many fuel cell bus trials. Many of the figures are graphs, bar charts, pie charts, and other analysis to allow you to assess the situation quickly and conveniently.

The market forecasts cover units, unit prices and total market value 2013-2023 backed up by forecasts for the market for all types of bus taken together, each for global and separately China. Taxi number, unit value and market value is similarly forecasted and the whole is put in the context of statistics for past sales and production output by manufacturer and forecasts for the electric vehicle market as a whole. The leading suppliers are identified. Transmission manufacturers are compared using sectioned technical diagrams.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Definitions
  • 1.2. Manufacturing buses and taxis
  • 1.3. Hybrids are key for now
  • 1.4. Advantages of electric buses
  • 1.5. Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region
  • 1.6. Demand and production in China
  • 1.7. Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars
  • 1.8. Taxis
  • 1.9. Electric bus design is ahead of cars
  • 1.10. Radically different bus powertrains
  • 1.11. ABB intermittent overhead charging
  • 1.12. Bus statistics
    • 1.12.1. e-Bus and bus backup information
    • 1.12.2. Preference for hybrid
    • 1.12.3. Total bus sales
    • 1.12.4. Production and Sales of China Light Bus Market in November 2013
    • 1.12.5. Production and Sales of China Medium Bus Market in November 2013
    • 1.12.6. Production and Sales of China Large Bus Market in November 2013

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Electric vehicles in general
  • 2.2. Advantages of electric buses
  • 2.3. Highlights 2011-2021
  • 2.4. Definitions and trends
  • 2.5. Modest success of electric microbuses
  • 2.6. Convergence of hybrid and pure electric buses.
  • 2.7. Convergence of trolley buses and free running electric buses
  • 2.8. CNG Preferred for Los Angeles Buses

3. ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES

  • 3.1. History of electric buses
  • 3.2. Main components of hybrid bus power trains
  • 3.3. Superbus
  • 3.4. Fuel cells rescued by batteries
  • 3.5. OLEV technology for Korean buses in 2013
  • 3.6. New pure electric school bus in USA

4. PROFILES OF SOME INTERESTING SUPPLIERS

  • 4.1. Alexander Dennis UK
  • 4.2. Anhui Ankai Automobile Company China
  • 4.3. BredaMenarinibus Vivacity Italy
  • 4.4. BYD China
  • 4.5. Daimler Germany
  • 4.6. Hino Motors and parent company, Toyota Japan
  • 4.7. IVECO Italy
  • 4.8. ISE Corp, USA
  • 4.9. MAN hybrid bus Germany: supercapacitor not battery
  • 4.10. Navistar USA
  • 4.11. New Flyer Industries Canada
  • 4.12. Nova Bus Canada
  • 4.13. Optare UK
  • 4.14. Proterra
  • 4.15. Ryobi Bus Japan
  • 4.16. TATA India
  • 4.17. Volvo Sweden
  • 4.18. Wrightbus UK
  • 4.19. Yutong Group
  • 4.20. Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd, China

5. BUS DRIVE TRAINS

  • 5.1. Adura Systems USA
  • 5.2. Allison Transmission USA
  • 5.3. Azure Dynamics USA
  • 5.4. BAE Systems UK, USA
  • 5.5. BLK China
  • 5.6. Eaton USA
  • 5.7. ISE Corporation
  • 5.8. SIM Drive Corporation Japan
  • 5.9. SR Drives UK, Green Propulsion Belgium
  • 5.10. ThunderVolt USA

6. ELECTRIC TAXI MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES

  • 6.1. Electric taxi projects in US, UK, Europe, China, Japan and Mexico
    • 6.1.1. China
    • 6.1.2. Mexico
    • 6.1.3. USA
  • 6.2. Mitsubishi taxi rollout in Japan
    • 6.2.1. Mitsubishi MiEV taxi
  • 6.3. Beijing China
  • 6.4. Changsha China
  • 6.5. Changping District in Beijing China
  • 6.6. Dalian China
  • 6.7. Langfeng, Hebei China
  • 6.8. Huge order in the Philippines in 2013
  • 6.9. Range-extended electric London cabs to be trialled in 2014

7. TRACTION BATTERIES, FUEL CELLS, RANGE EXTENDERS

  • 7.1. Traction batteries
  • 7.2. Who is winning in traction batteries and why
    • 7.2.1. The needs have radically changed
    • 7.2.2. It started with cobalt
    • 7.2.3. Great variety of recipes
    • 7.2.4. Other factors
    • 7.2.5. Check with reality
    • 7.2.6. Lithium winners today and soon
    • 7.2.7. Reasons for winning
    • 7.2.8. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
    • 7.2.9. Winning chemistry
    • 7.2.10. Titanate establishes a place
    • 7.2.11. Laminar structure
    • 7.2.12. Niche winners
    • 7.2.13. Fluid situation

8. FUEL CELLS

  • 8.1. Trials of fuel cell powered vehicles
  • 8.2. Fuel cell 2000 summary of fuel cell bus trials to 2010
  • 8.3. Range extenders
  • 8.4. US DOE Grant Sept 2013

9. MARKET STATISTICS AND FORECASTS

  • 9.1. Past trends
    • 9.1.1. Commercial vehicles
  • 9.2. Buses - historical trends
  • 9.3. School buses - North America
  • 9.4. Past trend in bus production by country
  • 9.5. US population of buses by type
  • 9.6. Transport modes in India
  • 9.7. Motor vehicle production by leading producers
  • 9.8. Global electric bus deliveries to start of 2011
  • 9.9. Forecasts to 2023
    • 9.9.1. Global demand for electric buses and taxis
    • 9.9.2. Manufacturing buses and taxis
  • 9.10. Technology future
    • 9.10.1. Hybrids are key for now
  • 9.11. Future leading manufacturers
    • 9.11.1. Today's leading electric bus manufacturer
    • 9.11.2. Future leading user nation
    • 9.11.3. Buses and taxis a good launch pad for new technologies
    • 9.11.4. Global conventional and electric bus demand 2010-2021
    • 9.11.5. Advantages of electric buses
  • 9.12. Decade of the hybrid
  • 9.13. Liberty Electric Cars
  • 9.14. Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region
  • 9.15. Conventional and electric bus demand and production in China
  • 9.16. Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars
  • 9.17. Global electric vehicle manufacturers by application
  • 9.18. Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by application
    • 9.18.1. Taxis
  • 9.19. Adoption of green taxis
  • 9.20. Electric vehicles in East Asia
  • 9.21. Total change

APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY

APPENDIX 2: INTRODUCTION TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES

TABLES

  • 1.1. Global demand for electric buses and taxis $ billion 2012-2023
  • 1.2. Global electric bus demand market forecast for 2012-2023, in numbers hybrid and numbers pure electric in thousands with total
  • 1.3. Electric vs all buses purchased globally and % penetration of electric 2012-2023 in thousands rounded
  • 1.4. Market drivers of global growth of bus and electric bus sales 2011-2021 and impediments
  • 1.5. Approximate annual purchase of hybrid electric replacement buses by major cities in the period 2015-2021
  • 1.6. Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
  • 1.7. Number, unit price and market value of hybrid electric buses 2012-2023, rounded
  • 1.8. Pricing of hybrid buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
  • 1.9. Number, unit price and market value of pure electric buses 2012-2023, rounded
  • 1.10. Pricing of pure electric buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
  • 1.11. The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2012-2023
  • 1.12. Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth
  • 1.13. In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2012-2023
  • 1.14. Estimates of hybrid bus transmission sales by manufacturer in 2009
  • 1.15. Hybrid bus sales 2008-2013 - forecasted numbers globally for some leading suppliers
  • 1.16. Growth rate of market by numbers for buses and electric buses, hybrid and pure electric, 2011-2021
  • 1.17. Total number of taxis sold 2012-2023 and number of electric taxis 2012-2023 in thousands and % market share
  • 1.18. Global demand for electric taxis 2012-2023 by number, unit value and market value
  • 1.19. Demand in China for taxis and electric taxis, thousands and % penetration of taxis in China and of global electric taxis for 2012-2023
  • 1.20. Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2012-2023
  • 1.21. Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
  • 1.22. Examples of taxi population in leading cities
  • 1.23. 2009 production statistics
  • 1.24. TOSA bus specification
  • 1.25. TOSA charging infrastructure specification
  • 2.1. Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
  • 2.2. Challenges of electric buses and taxis
  • 2.3. Main market drivers 2011-2021
  • 2.4. Electric vehicle highlights 2011-2021
  • 2.5. Limitations of trolleybuses and trams
  • 3.1. 78 examples of manufacturers of hybrid electric buses, with country of headquarters and image
  • 3.2. 53 Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters and image
  • 4.1. Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co., Ltd releases its output and sales data of Oct. 2013.
  • 4.2. SWOT for EVs
  • 6.1. Eight projects testing pure electric taxis
  • 7.1. What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
  • 7.2. 71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
  • 9.1. 2009 production statistics
  • 9.2. Bus production by country in 2002
  • 9.3. Global sales of buses by region 2002
  • 9.4. Country percentage share of heavy bus and school bus production in 2009
  • 9.5. US aircraft, vehicles and other conveyances 1995-2006
  • 9.6. US transportation capital stock by mode 1995-2007 current $ billion
  • 9.7. Indian Cities Mode Split, 2007 (Wilbur Smith 2008)
  • 9.8. The UK top five bus suppliers in 2006 and 2007
  • 9.9. Global demand for electric buses and taxis $ billion 2012-2023
  • 9.10. Global electric bus demand market forecast for 2012-2023, in numbers hybrid and numbers pure electric in thousands with total
  • 9.11. Electric vs all buses purchased globally and % penetration of electric 2012-2023 in thousands rounded
  • 9.12. Market drivers of global growth of bus and electric bus sales 2011-2022 and impediments
  • 9.13. Approximate annual purchase of hybrid electric replacement buses by major cities in the period 2015-2021
  • 9.14. Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
  • 9.15. Number, unit price and market value of hybrid electric buses 2012-2023, rounded
  • 9.16. Pricing of hybrid buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
  • 9.17. Number, unit price and market value of pure electric buses 2012-2023, rounded
  • 9.18. Pricing of pure electric buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
  • 9.19. The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2012-2023
  • 9.20. Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth
  • 9.21. In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2012-2023
  • 9.22. Estimates of hybrid bus transmission sales by manufacturer in 2009
  • 9.23. Hybrid bus sales 2008-2013 - forecasted numbers globally for some leading suppliers
  • 9.24. Growth rate of market by numbers for buses and electric buses, hybrid and pure electric, 2011-2021
  • 9.25. Total number of taxis sold 2012-2023 and number of electric taxis 2012-2023 in thousands and % market share
  • 9.26. Global demand for electric taxis 2012-2023 by number, unit value and market value
  • 9.27. Demand in China for taxis and electric taxis, thousands and % penetration of taxis in China and of global electric taxis for 2012-2023
  • 9.28. Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2012-2023
  • 9.29. Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
  • 9.30. Examples of taxi population in leading cities
  • 9.31. The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2011-2021

FIGURES

  • 1.1. Global market for electric taxis based on regular cars as a percentage of the total electric car market in 2021 at ex-factory prices
  • 1.2. Global electric bus demand market forecast 2012-2023, in numbers hybrid and pure electric in thousands
  • 1.3. Electric vs all buses purchased globally of units 2012-2023 rounded
  • 1.4. Bus size vs fuel consumption
  • 1.5. Number, unit price and market value of hybrid electric buses 2012-2023, rounded
  • 1.6. Number, unit price and market value of pure electric buses 2012-2023, rounded
  • 1.7. The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2012-2023
  • 1.8. Number of buses purchased in 2011 by region
  • 1.9. In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2012-2023
  • 1.10. Kent electric city bus from China
  • 1.11. Hino Blue Ribbon hybrid diesel electric bus in China
  • 1.12. Electric bus in China
  • 1.13. Bus by Tongkun New Energy Technologies Co. and FAW Bus and Coach Co
  • 1.14. Electric pick-up truck from China Vehicles Company
  • 1.15. Garbage collecting electric car by Shandong Shunxing Machinery
  • 1.16. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2011
  • 1.17. The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2011
  • 1.18. Total number of taxis sold 2012-2023 and number of electric taxis 2012-2023 in thousands
  • 1.19. Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
  • 1.20. Global demand for electric taxis 2012-2023
  • 1.21. Number of taxis sold 2012-2023 and number of electric taxis in China 2012-2023 in thousands
  • 1.22. Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2012-2023
  • 1.23. Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
  • 1.24. Examples of taxi population in leading cities
  • 1.25. MAN Lion urban bus with supercapacitors and no traction battery
  • 1.26. ABB TOSA charging system
  • 1.27. Passenger space is not compromised, with onboard equipment packaged on the electric bus' roof.
  • 1.28. Rapid battery charging takes place at every third or fourth bus stop along the pilot project's route, which runs between Geneva airport and the city's exhibition center.
  • 1.29. Background information for total bus sales 2010/2011
  • 1.30. Top five sales volume of light bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 1.31. Top five sales volume of medium bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 1.32. Top five sales volume of large bus manufacturers in November 2013
  • 2.1. Isuzu sales of buses 2005-2009
  • 2.2. Electric bus in Nepal
  • 2.3. PhUV pure electric bus
  • 2.4. Tara pure electric Shuttle
  • 2.5. A Volvo hybrid powertrain for buses is shown below
  • 2.6. Orion VII NG hybrid bus
  • 2.7. Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric buses showing the convergence of hybrid and pure electric technologies as the conventional internal combustion engine ICE is abandoned
  • 2.8. Rome trolleybus raising its trolley arms to switch from battery to overhead-wire power. In the view on the right the pick-up has yet to properly locate itself around the overhead wires
  • 2.9. Opbrid pantograph for fast recharging
  • 2.10. Hydrogen fuel cell for buses etc from UTC Power
  • 2.11. Ultracapacitor layout in a MAN hybrid bus
  • 2.12. In-road charging of small buses in Turin, Italy
  • 2.13. Straddling bus concept
  • 3.1. Pure electric bus in 1907
  • 3.2. Proposal for new London double decker hybrid electric bus
  • 3.3. Capoco driverless electric bus concept
  • 3.4. Insectbus concept
  • 3.5. 78 examples of hybrid electric bus producers by country of headquarters
  • 3.6. 78 examples of hybrid electric bus producers by continent of headquarters
  • 3.7. Sample of 53 pure electric bus manufacturers by continent
  • 3.8. Sample of 53 pure electric bus manufacturers by country
  • 3.9. Superbus
  • 3.10. Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years.
  • 3.11. Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
  • 3.12. Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
  • 4.1. Alexander Dennis Enviro400 hybrid bus configuration
  • 4.2. Hefei pure electric bus demonstration operation start ceremony
  • 4.3. Daimler bus production locations
  • 4.4. Unit sales of the Daimler bus division 2008-9
  • 4.5. Daimler bus sales by global region H1 2009
  • 4.6. Daimler bus market share and market share of leading competitors in 2007
  • 4.7. Daimler's technology roadmap for launching new bus technologies to 2015
  • 4.8. HyFLEET:CUTE fuel cell bus project in Europe and the US
  • 4.9. Hino hybrid bus
  • 4.10. Hino "no plug in" bus.
  • 4.11. The positioning of the planned Toyota fuel cell hybrid bus FCHV-BUS
  • 4.12. Iveco pure electric bus elements
  • 4.13. Iveco configurations
  • 4.14. ISE lean burn hybrid bus
  • 4.15. ISE initial hybrid configuration
  • 4.16. MAN Lion urban hybrid bus
  • 4.17. MAN Lion urban hybrid bus in section showing supercapacitors (ultracapacitors) in place of traction battery
  • 4.18. Ryobi solar assisted electric bus
  • 4.19. The Bladon Jets microturbine range extender is the size of two large cans of beans
  • 4.20. Jaguar concept car demonstrated late 2010
  • 4.21. Tata electric roadmap of launches
  • 4.22. Volvo presentation at eCarTec Munich where it advocated hybrid urban buses after claiming to have delivered more pure electric buses than anyone else (500 of them)
  • 4.23. A Zhongtong pure electric bus
  • 5.1. Adura's MESA Powertrain
  • 5.2. Azure Dynamics powertrain
  • 5.3. BAE Systems Hybridrive series hybrid bus powertrain
  • 5.4. Eaton hybrid powertrain
  • 5.5. ISE Corp hybrid powertrain
  • 5.6. SIM Drive in wheel traction
  • 5.7. SR drives series parallel power unit
  • 5.8. ThunderVolt hybrid drive train for ISE buses
  • 6.1. Taxi fire caused by a bad lithium-ion battery in a Chinese electric taxi
  • 6.2. Mitsubishi Minicab i-MiEV
  • 6.3. Mitsubishi MiEV Minicab
  • 6.4. The Terra Motors e-trike
  • 7.1. Traction battery experience curve for pure electric battery electric vehicles
  • 7.2. Volkswagen forecasts the following cost trend for the favoured types of traction battery
  • 7.3. Progress in improving energy density vs power density of traction batteries
  • 7.4. Comparison of benefits and challenges for various types of traction battery
  • 7.5. Geely IG solar car
  • 7.6. Japanese ten meter long deep sea cruising AUV, the URASHIMA
  • 7.7. Bionic dolphin
  • 7.8. Deepflight Merlin
  • 7.9. Cri-Cri pure electric stunt plane new in 2010
  • 7.10. Oshkosh truck
  • 7.11. Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.
  • 8.1. Series hybrid bus being developed by Mobile Energy Solutions
  • 8.2. MAN hybrid fuel cell bus
  • 8.3. Van Hool fuel cell buses on trial
  • 8.4. Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia
  • 8.5. Mercedes Benz fuel cell bus trial
  • 9.1. World heavy bus production by country and type for 2008-9
  • 9.2. North American sales of school buses 2000-2009
  • 9.3. Daimler Group vehicle production by type in 2009
  • 9.4. Fiat Group vehicle production by type in 2009
  • 9.5. GAZ Group vehicle production by type in 2009
  • 9.6. General Motors vehicle production by type in 2009
  • 9.7. Hyundai Group vehicle production by type in 2009
  • 9.8. Mahindra Group vehicle production by type in 2009
  • 9.9. Navistar Group vehicle production by type in 2009
  • 9.10. Tata Group vehicle production in 2009
  • 9.11. Volvo group production in 2009
  • 9.12. Global market for electric taxis based on regular cars as a percentage of the total electric car market in 2021
  • 9.13. Global electric bus demand market forecast 2012-2023, in numbers hybrid and pure electric in thousands
  • 9.14. Electric vs all buses purchased globally of units 2012-2023 rounded
  • 9.15. Bus size vs fuel consumption
  • 9.16. Number, unit price and market value of hybrid electric buses 2012-2023, rounded
  • 9.17. Number, unit price and market value of pure electric buses 2012-2023, rounded
  • 9.18. The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2012-2023
  • 9.19. Global bus sales >8t, per manufacturer 2010/2011 ('000)
  • 9.20. Number of buses purchased in 2011 by region
  • 9.21. In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2012-2023
  • 9.22. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2011
  • 9.23. The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2011
  • 9.24. Total number of taxis sold 2012-2023 and number of electric taxis 2012-2023 in thousands
  • 9.25. Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
  • 9.26. Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000
  • 9.27. Global demand for electric taxis 2012-2023
  • 9.28. Number of taxis sold 2012-2023 and number of electric taxis in China 2012-2023 in thousands
  • 9.29. Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2012-2023
  • 9.30. Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
  • 9.31. Examples of taxi population in leading cities
  • 9.32. The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2011
  • 9.33. The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2021
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