Abstract
Overview
In-depth analysis of India's coal power market trends, dynamics, value chain constraints and opportunities
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The first edition of the ‘India Coal Power Market Analysis & Forecast
2012-2020’ evaluates the major commercial, policy and supply chain related
constraints and challenges facing India's power sector, in general, and coal
power industry, in particular, over the next decade and the opportunities that
this presents.
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With insufficient generation capacity, a history of project delays and missed
government capacity additions targets, as well as severe problems with the
transmission and distribution networks, India's power market faces many
challenges. Coal power has long since been the dominant baseload power source
and default technology choice for capacity expansion in India; but slow
development of domestic coal resources, rising domestic and international coal
prices, government tariff policy, and the bankability of PPA agreements (among
other things) are presenting significant hurdles to timely project execution.
In light of this, the report analyses the key market trends and dynamics,
identifies opportunities throughout the coal power value chain, and presents
forecasts for coal power capacity additions and associated capital expenditure
over the period to 2020.
The modelling & forecasting process
The report's forecast are based on a comprehensive bottom-up
project-by-project process, which involved the scrutiny of more than 2,200
coal power project prospects (totalling 880GW) that were evaluated based on a
range of key factors, including status, project size, location, progress to
date, operator workload, etc. Additionally a bespoke model was developed in
order to evaluate the potential for key demand drivers such as GDP, population
growth, and energy prices to impact the rate of market development - with
top-down high case and low case scenarios presented in addition to the
bottom-up base case forecasts.
Detailed forecast breakdowns
Forecasts for capacity and capex are presented in detail in order to provide
clarity to emerging market trends that allows readers to identify the specific
areas of opportunity available to them.
The following breakdowns are included:
- Capacity breakdowns by unit size - demonstrating the trend towards larger
supercritical technology.
- Capex breakdowns by unit size.
- Capex breakdowns by equipment and service items - e.g. from major
equipment like boilers, turbines, generators to fans, valves, and heat
exchangers and services such as design & engineering and project management
among many other categories.
Supply chain analysis and consultations
The report identifies the major constraints throughout the coal power supply
chain and wider value chain and highlights the opportunities that this is
presenting. Furthermore our analysis of the market constraints and
opportunities is supplement by interviews with key industry stakeholders, who
shared their views on the current and future prospects for India's coal power
market and what must be done to address the difficulties it is currently
experiencing.
Why Buy This Report?
Written in a style that assumes no reader knowledge of the subject area, the
report is an essential and rich source of information for senior executive and
key decision-makers currently involved or planning involvement in India's coal
power market - especially those working in contracting and equipment supply
industries, financial institutions and government departments.
The following are just a few of the many good reasons for purchasing this
report:
- Comprehensive capex breakdowns by equipment and service items
- Bottom-up (involving the evaluation of more than 2,200 projects)
project-by-project forecasts provides readers with the confidence to utilise
the report's forecasts and findings to support key business investment and
growth strategies
- Industry survey means the views of key stakeholders are reflected in our
findings
- Detailed analysis of project economics (tariffs, overnight capital costs,
LCOE comparisons etc.)
- In-depth discussions and analysis of value chain constraints and
opportunities
About John Loffman Research
John Loffman Research is an independent, employee-owned energy business
advisory company specialising in the provision of business strategy,
commercial & market due diligence, transaction support, and bespoke research
and analysis services for global energy markets. Focussing on power and oil &
gas industries, the company has extensive experience in geographic areas
worldwide, providing comprehensive research and analysis on upstream,
midstream, and downstream market sectors.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary & Conclusions
An overview of key market dynamics, policy, supply chain constraints, issues,
opportunities, and market forecasts.
Macro Market Trends & Drivers
A detailed examination of the key economic, market-specific and
ppolicyy-related drivers of activityy within the market.
India Power Market Overview
A complete overview of market developments and structure, the role of the
government, evaluations of capacity, supply-demand, consumption and
transmission network issues, and government capacity targets.
India Coal Power Market Overview
An evaluation of uppstream coal developpments,, coal price related issues,
major government coal power market policies and strategies, environmental
issues, supply chain constraints and a survey of industry stakeholders.
Project Economics & Foreign Investment
In-depth study of tariff policy, on-grid tariff rattes, overniightht capit
itall costts, andd lleveli lisedd cost of energy (LCOE) comparisons.
Prospective Project Data
Lists of major coal projects by unit size that are currently under
developpment,, with the ppossibilityy or likelihood of being completed during
the forecast period 2012-2020. A complete database of all prospective future
projects can be purchased separately.
Market Forecasts (2012 to 2020)
In-depth forecastts and analysis of capacity additions and capex by coal
project unit size, with detailed capex breakdowns by plant equipment items and
project services.
Appendices
Overview of key modelling and forecasting assumptions.
India Coal Power Market Analysis & Forecast 2012-2020 published by John Loffman Research in May 30, 2012. This report price starts from US $ 2322.
India's Dependency on Coal Power: Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis Suggests Coal Power Offers Best Value of all Power Options Available
May 31st, 2012
Global Information Inc. would like to present a new market research report, "India Coal Power Market Analysis & Forecast 2012-2020" by John Loffman Research.
Indias power sector has experienced significant restructuring over the last ten years as the government has sought to increase private investment and competition within the market. Ambitious annual capacity targets have been set in order to ensure that India has sufficient and secure levels of power supply to meet the demands of strong and sustained economic growth.
Since market restructuring, which in principle started with 2003s Electricity Act, Indias power capacity has grown at a strong CAGR of 6.8%, growing from 130GW to 220GW in 2011. During this period, coal power capacity also grew at a CAGR of 6.4% from 65GW in 2003 to 107GW at year-end 2011. In spite of plans by the Indian government to develop a more balanced energy mix through support for nuclear, gas, hydro, wind and solar power, coal is set to remain the default choice for new capacity additions over the next decade for a range of reasons.
Nuclear and large-scale hydro projects are facing increasingly vehement public opposition, which is leading to significant project delays and cancellations. Meanwhile, gas power projects are suffering from even worse fuel supply issues than coal. Insufficient domestic production, slow development of gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure, and high international gas prices are all affecting gas power project developments. Intermittent wind and solar power projects, which are expected to reduce over-reliance on coal, are finding project financing (i.e. bankability of PPA agreements) and insufficient government support (e.g. tax breaks and feed-in tariffs) to be significant hurdles for project execution. Moreover, even accounting for international fuel prices, coal power projects continue to offer superior project economics with levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculations suggesting coal power projects offer the best "value for money" of all major power technology options available.
According to new research published by John Loffman Research, India is set to spend US$154 billion over the next 9 years to 2020 adding 147GW of coal capacity additions. The distribution of this expenditure and the timing of the capacity additions is, however, expected to be somewhat uneven. That is to say, recent market conditions principally the combined issue of a lack of domestic supplies and a tariff structure that does not support the project economics of developments that require higher priced imported coal have led many project developers to either put their expansion plans on hold or cancel them altogether. Nonetheless, moves are being made by many state governments with regards to increasing tariff levels in order to mitigate these (and other) issues and ultimately such changes and longer-term policy reforms will eventually support the investment in such delayed projects.
According to Adrian John, author of the report, "while in the longer-term India is seeking to diversify its power supply mix away from a dependence on coal, in the medium-term it remains the obvious choice for meeting energy demand. Power supply shortfalls continue to negatively impact economic growth and it is essential that this issue is addressed. Unfortunately, for market regulators and policy makers, large-scale hydro, nuclear, and gas power project proposals have far greater hurdles to overcome than coal projects thus leaving very few alternative options to coal as a source of baseload power capacity. Furthermore, the growing involvement of Chinese manufacturers and construction companies within Indias coal power sector are helping to drive down costs and speed up project execution times, which is helping to improve project economics and reduce investment risks."
