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India Coal Power Market Analysis & Forecast 2012-2020

Notice
This publication has been discontinued on March 6, 2014.

Abstract

Overview

In-depth analysis of India's coal power market trends, dynamics, value chain constraints and opportunities

The first edition of the ‘India Coal Power Market Analysis & Forecast 2012-2020’ evaluates the major commercial, policy and supply chain related constraints and challenges facing India's power sector, in general, and coal power industry, in particular, over the next decade and the opportunities that this presents.

With insufficient generation capacity, a history of project delays and missed government capacity additions targets, as well as severe problems with the transmission and distribution networks, India's power market faces many challenges. Coal power has long since been the dominant baseload power source and default technology choice for capacity expansion in India; but slow development of domestic coal resources, rising domestic and international coal prices, government tariff policy, and the bankability of PPA agreements (among other things) are presenting significant hurdles to timely project execution. In light of this, the report analyses the key market trends and dynamics, identifies opportunities throughout the coal power value chain, and presents forecasts for coal power capacity additions and associated capital expenditure over the period to 2020.

The modelling & forecasting process

The report's forecast are based on a comprehensive bottom-up project-by-project process, which involved the scrutiny of more than 2,200 coal power project prospects (totalling 880GW) that were evaluated based on a range of key factors, including status, project size, location, progress to date, operator workload, etc. Additionally a bespoke model was developed in order to evaluate the potential for key demand drivers such as GDP, population growth, and energy prices to impact the rate of market development - with top-down high case and low case scenarios presented in addition to the bottom-up base case forecasts.

Detailed forecast breakdowns

Forecasts for capacity and capex are presented in detail in order to provide clarity to emerging market trends that allows readers to identify the specific areas of opportunity available to them.

The following breakdowns are included:

  • Capacity breakdowns by unit size - demonstrating the trend towards larger supercritical technology.
  • Capex breakdowns by unit size.
  • Capex breakdowns by equipment and service items - e.g. from major equipment like boilers, turbines, generators to fans, valves, and heat exchangers and services such as design & engineering and project management among many other categories.

Supply chain analysis and consultations

The report identifies the major constraints throughout the coal power supply chain and wider value chain and highlights the opportunities that this is presenting. Furthermore our analysis of the market constraints and opportunities is supplement by interviews with key industry stakeholders, who shared their views on the current and future prospects for India's coal power market and what must be done to address the difficulties it is currently experiencing.

Why Buy This Report?

Written in a style that assumes no reader knowledge of the subject area, the report is an essential and rich source of information for senior executive and key decision-makers currently involved or planning involvement in India's coal power market - especially those working in contracting and equipment supply industries, financial institutions and government departments.

The following are just a few of the many good reasons for purchasing this report:

  • Comprehensive capex breakdowns by equipment and service items
  • Bottom-up (involving the evaluation of more than 2,200 projects) project-by-project forecasts provides readers with the confidence to utilise the report's forecasts and findings to support key business investment and growth strategies
  • Industry survey means the views of key stakeholders are reflected in our findings
  • Detailed analysis of project economics (tariffs, overnight capital costs, LCOE comparisons etc.)
  • In-depth discussions and analysis of value chain constraints and opportunities

About John Loffman Research

John Loffman Research is an independent, employee-owned energy business advisory company specialising in the provision of business strategy, commercial & market due diligence, transaction support, and bespoke research and analysis services for global energy markets. Focussing on power and oil & gas industries, the company has extensive experience in geographic areas worldwide, providing comprehensive research and analysis on upstream, midstream, and downstream market sectors.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary & Conclusions

An overview of key market dynamics, policy, supply chain constraints, issues, opportunities, and market forecasts.

Macro Market Trends & Drivers

A detailed examination of the key economic, market-specific and ppolicyy-related drivers of activityy within the market.

India Power Market Overview

A complete overview of market developments and structure, the role of the government, evaluations of capacity, supply-demand, consumption and transmission network issues, and government capacity targets.

India Coal Power Market Overview

An evaluation of uppstream coal developpments,, coal price related issues, major government coal power market policies and strategies, environmental issues, supply chain constraints and a survey of industry stakeholders.

Project Economics & Foreign Investment

In-depth study of tariff policy, on-grid tariff rattes, overniightht capit itall costts, andd lleveli lisedd cost of energy (LCOE) comparisons.

Prospective Project Data

Lists of major coal projects by unit size that are currently under developpment,, with the ppossibilityy or likelihood of being completed during the forecast period 2012-2020. A complete database of all prospective future projects can be purchased separately.

Market Forecasts (2012 to 2020)

In-depth forecastts and analysis of capacity additions and capex by coal project unit size, with detailed capex breakdowns by plant equipment items and project services.

Appendices

Overview of key modelling and forecasting assumptions.

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