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Mobile Data Offload & Onload: Wi-Fi, Small Cell & Carrier-Grade Strategies 2013-2017

Abstract

Overview

  • New Country Level Forecasts
  • New Wi-Fi & Small Cell Forecasts
  • Mobile Data Traffic Growth
  • Data Offload vs. Onload Comparison

This third edition of Juniper's market leading report provides valuable insight into the multifaceted offload value chain and delivers an in-depth appraisal of the growing demand for mobile data and offload solutions. The report once again forecasts and analyses the successful data migration models - from mobile to fixed (data offload) and from fixed to mobile (data onload), providing a clear picture for studying the impact of data traffic growth.

With 25 pages of forecasts in the report, this updated study provides projected figures and qualified findings regarding mobile data growth and the crucial alleviating role of mobile offload.

What This Report Covers

New & Updated Forecast Suite

Juniper's unique forecast suite for the mobile offload market includes the following data points:

  • Total Data Usage ~ Split by Fixed & Mobile Devices
  • Total Mobile Data Traffic via Cellular Network
  • Total Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded and Onloaded
  • Data Offloaded via Small Cells & Wi-Fi

The Interactive Forecast Excel (Ifxl) provides a suite of new country level forecasts for the following countries: Canada, US, Germany, UK, Japan, South Korea and India.

The report also provides forecasts for WiFi Chipsets Split by Technology and Region; WiFi Access Points Split by Segment & Region; and Small Cell Access Points Split by Segment and Region. Additional forecasts, split for data growth by device and application, are included within the Ifxl for the first time.

The MNO Challenge & Opportunities

This report revisits the challenges confronting MNOs and examines the strategies which are being embraced by the mobile operators and how this has changed over the past 12 months. The report also identifies a series of trends which are coming together to greatly accelerate Wi-Fi and Small Cell adoption supported by a series of case studies, demonstrating how selected MNOs have implemented offload solutions.

Detailed Investigation of the Trends in Technologies

The final chapter of this cutting-edge study sheds light on the architecture of both WiFi and Small Cell technologies, defining and clarifying the distinct advantages of deployment and on-going use. It also analyses the advancement of carrier grade Wi-Fi supported by exclusive interviews with key players including the Wi-Fi Alliance and Boingo Wireless.

Additional Key Features

New Interactive Forecast Excel with '25' What-if-analyses and '140' number of tables

  • A dedicated and detailed Vendor Analysis with an updated Vendor Matrix, profiling 10 key players.
  • Expert Analysis on Monetisation Opportunities and Strategic Recommendations

Key Questions

  • How will total data traffic over the cellular network grow over the next five years?
  • What is the total data usage per mobile and fixed devices?
  • What is the current market in terms of data offloading?
  • How much mobile data traffic will be offloaded via WiFi & Small cells?
  • How much data will be onloaded back onto the network?
  • What is Carrier Grade Wi-Fi and how is the industry developing in terms of Wi-Fi adoption?
  • What are the business models around Wi-Fi and Small Cell Offload?
  • Will mobile data offload continue to be complementary to operators' 4G strategies?

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: Boingo Wireless, Devicescape, Epitiro, Ericsson, ip.access, Ixia, Kineto Wireless, Qualcomm, Ruckus Wireless, Ubee AirWalk , Ubiquisys, Wi-Fi Alliance

Profiled: Ubiquisys, Ericsson (BelAir Networks), Devicescape, ip.access, Kineto, Airvana, Stoke, Ruckus Wireless, Ubee AirWalk, Qualcomm

Case Studied: Wi-Fi Alliance, Boingo Wireless, Orange, AT&T, Vodafone, KPN, Softbank, Verizon Wireless

Mentioned: 72 Mobile Acquisition Corp, AC Restaurants, Accel Partners, Accuris Networks, ADC, ADP telecom, Advent Venture Partners, Aircel, Airvana, AirWalk Communications, Alcatel Lucent, Alta Berkeley, Amadeus Capital Partners Limited, Amdocs, Apple, Aptilo Networks, Arieso, AT&T, Atheros, Atlas Venture, August Capital, Azal Airlines, Azerfon, BBC, BDC Venture Capital, BelAir Networks, Bharti Airtel, BlackBerry, Bluetooth, Boingo Wireless, Bouygues Télécom, Bridgewater Systems, BT, Kineto, Campanile, Caufield & Byers, CEGETEL, Cellcom, China Mobile, China Unicom, Cisco, Comcast, Concourse Communications Group, DAG Ventures, DesignArt, DOCOMO, Docomo Capital Inc, DOVADO, Duchossois Technology Partners, EDC, Enterprise Partners, Ericsson, Face.com, Facebook, Federal Communications Commission, Firelake Capital, Five Continents Consulting Group, Focus Ventures, France Telecom Orange, Freescale, GigXone BelAir Networks, Google, Greenpacket, Guangxi Unicom, Hilton, Hrakto, HTC, Huawei, Integral Capital Partners, Intel Capital, Intellinet, Intellinet-tech, Interdigital, Intouch Seamless Data Offload, Investor AB, ip.access, iPass, IPR, JAFCO, JiWire, Kineto, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, KPN Netherlands, KT, La Place, LG, LG+, LLC, Marks & Spencer, McDonald's, McLean Watson Capital, MetroPCS, Mitusi & Co, MMV Financial Inc, Mobidia, Mobile Internet Capital, Mobile Venture Fund, Mosaic Telecom, Motorola, Nar Mobile, NEC, Nedelco Inc, Nissay Capital, Nokia Siemens Networks (NEC), ntel Corporation, O2, Oak Investment Partners, Ofcom, Oyster, Pacific Venture Partners, Panorama Capital, Passpoint, Perkins, Pilot House Ventures, Presidio STX, Proxim Wireless, Public Mobile, Qualcomm, Real Wireless Ltd, Reliance Technology Ventures Ltd, Rothschild, Ruckus Wireless, Sagemcom, Saguna, Samsung, Scottish Equity Partners, Seapoint Ventures, Sequoia Capital, SerComm, Sevin Rosen Funds, SFR, Shaanxi Normal University (SNNU), Sky, Small Cell Forum, Smart, SNCF, SoftBank, Starbucks, Stoke, Storm Ventures, Superdrug, Sutter Hill Ventures, Taqua LLC, Telefonica O2, Telenor Group, The 3GPP, The BBC, The Cloud, TL Ventures, T-Mobile USA, T-Mobile Venture Fund, Trilogy Equity Partners, T-Venture, Twitter, Ubee AirWalk, UMC Capital Corporation, Van Der Valk, VenGrowth Capital partners, Venrock, Venture Partners, Ventures West Management Inc, Verizon, Virgin Media, Vodafone, Waterstones, Weroam, Wi-Fi Alliance, Wilocity, Wireless Broadband Alliance, Wireless Gigabit Alliance, WK Technology Fund, Yasuda Enterprise Development, YouTube, Zain Bahrain, Zigbee, ZTE

Extra Info

8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. The MNO Challenge

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 Mobile Data Offload
    • Figure 1.1: Data Offloading for Capacity
    • 1.2.1 Why Wi-Fi and Small Cell Offload?
  • 1.3 Mobile Data Onload
    • Figure 1.2: Data Migration from Mobile to Fixed and Fixed to Mobile
  • 1.4 The Network Challenge
    • Figure 1.3: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2012-2017
    • Table 1.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2012-2017
  • 1.5 Mobile Data Growth
    • Figure 1.4: Data Growth Factors
      • i. Smartphone Adoption and More Available Internet Capable Devices
      • ii. New Data Services, High Speed & High Quality Downloads
    • Figure 1.5: Proportion of Requests for TV Programmes across BBC iPlayer (%) by Device Type in 2012
  • 1.6 The Scale of the Challenge
    • 1.6.1 New Connected Devices
    • Figure 1.6: Google Project Glass
    • 1.6.2 The Advancement and Domination of Smartphones
    • Figure 1.7: Global Smartphone Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
    • 1.6.3 The 'Stay Connected' Trend
    • 1.6.4 Mobile Data Traffic Growth
    • Figure 1.8: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 1.2: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure 1.9: Base Line Analysis of Mobile Data and Data Revenue Growth, 2012-2017
    • Table 1.3: Base Line Analysis of Mobile Data and Data Revenue Growth, 2012-2017
  • 1.7 MNO Strategies
    • 1.7.1 Scaling
    • 1.7.2 Network Optimisation
    • 1.7.3 Data Traffic Offload
    • i. Example: AT&T
    • Figure 1.10: AT&T Wi-Fi Hotspot Locations
  • 1.8 Why Data Offload?
    • 1.8.1 Mobile Network Challenges
      • i. RAN Evolution and Expansion
    • 1.8.2 Cost Reduction and Enhanced Revenue
    • 1.8.3 Patchy Coverage
    • 1.8.4 New Business Opportunities
  • 1.9 Offloading Challenges
    • 1.9.1 Seamless User Experience and Security
    • 1.9.2 Broad Deployment
    • 1.9.3 Roaming Challenges
    • 1.9.4 Legal and Regulatory Issues
    • 1.9.5 Branding and Marketing approach
  • 1.10 Conclusion

2. Market Status & Business Case Scenarios: Monetising the Data Upsurge

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Operator Market Status
    • 2.2.1 Orange
      • i. Business Model
  • 2.3 AT&T USA
    • i. Strategy
    • ii. Business Model
    • iii. AT&T Wi-Fi Hotspots & Connection Growth
    • Figure 2.1: AT&T Wi-Fi Connection Volumes (m), Split by Quarters Q1 2008 - Q4 2012
  • 2.4 SoftBank Japan
    • Figure 2.2: Femtocell - Home Antenna FT from Softbank Japan
  • 2.5 Vodafone
    • Figure 2.3: Vodafone Sure Signal
    • Figure 2.4: Vodafone New Zealand Sure Signal Business Plan for Consumers & Enterprise
  • 2.6 Verizon Wireless
  • 2.7 KPN Netherlands
    • Table 2.1: KPN Wi-Fi Subscription Packages (as at March 2013)
  • 2.8 Monetising Offload Solution
    • Figure 2.5: Mobile Data Offload Value Chain
    • 2.8.1 Monetisation Opportunities for MNOs
    • Figure 2.6: Data Offload Monetisation Opportunities
      • i. Incremental Service Revenue
      • ii. Cost Savings
      • iii. Future Infrastructure Support
      • iv. Reduced Churn
      • v. New Business Opportunities
      • vi. International Roaming Opportunity
  • 2.9 Business Case Scenarios & Analysis
    • Figure 2.7: Mobile Internet Access: Technology, Device & Location Details
    • 2.2.1 Wi-Fi Offload Model
    • Figure 2.8: Wireless Router Take-up against Broadband Take-Up in the UK
    • Table 2.2: Wi-Fi Offload for Mobile Network Operators
    • Figure 2.9: Global Wi-Fi Access Points Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 2.3: Global Wi-Fi Access Points Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
      • i. Consumer Initiated Model
      • ii. Mobile Network Operator Initiated Model
    • Table 2.4: Basic Mobile Pay Monthly Plans with Wi-Fi Bundle Details
    • 2.2.2 Small Cell Offload Model
    • Figure 2.10: Global Small Cell Access Points Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 2.5: Global Small Cell Access Points Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
      • i. Consumer Initiated Model
      • ii. Operator Initiated Model
  • 2.10 Conclusion

3. Market Forecasts: Mobile Data Growth, Offload & Onload

  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Methodology and Assumptions
    • Figure 3.1: Mobile Data Offloading Market Forecast Methodology
    • Figure 3.2: Offload & Onload Data Traffic Forecast Derivation Method
  • 3.3 Mobile Data Offload Forecasts
    • 3.3.1 Total Data Traffic Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones and Tablets
    • Figure 3.3: Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets (PB) pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.1: Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets (PB) pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • 3.3.2 Mobile Data Traffic over the Cellular Network
    • Figure 3.4: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets as Percentage of Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.2: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets as Percentage of Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated, Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure 3.5: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.3: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • 3.3.3 Total Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded
    • Figure 3.6: Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded from the Cellular Network pa as Percentage of Total Cellular Mobile Data Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.4: Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded from the Cellular Network pa as Percentage of Total Cellular Mobile Data Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure 3.7: Total Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded from the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.5: Total Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded from the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
  • 3.4 Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi and Small Cells
    • 3.4.1 Small Cell Take-Up Forecast
    • Figure 3.8: Small Cell Take-Up as Percentage of Fixed Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.6: Small Cell Take-Up as Percentage of Fixed Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • 3.4.2 Mobile Data Offloaded via Small Cell
    • Figure 3.9: Mobile Data Offloaded via Small Cell as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.7: Mobile Data Offloaded via Small Cell as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure 3.10: Mobile Data Offloaded via Small Cell pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.8: Mobile Data Offloaded via Small Cell pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • 3.4.3 Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi
    • Figure 3.11: Free and Paid Wi-Fi Hotspot Availability in North America
    • Figure 3.12: Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.9: Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure 3.13: Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.10: Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
  • 3.5 Mobile Data Onload
    • Figure 3.14: Active Fixed vs Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Developed & Developing Regions (m) 2007-2012
    • Table 3.11: Active Fixed vs Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Developed & Developing Regions (m) 2007-2012
    • 3.5.1 Total Data Usage by Devices
    • Figure 3.15: Total Data Usage by Fixed Devices with Cellular Connectivity pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.12: Total Data Usage by Fixed Devices with Cellular Connectivity pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • 3.5.2 Total Data Traffic Onload
    • Figure 3.16: Total Data Traffic Onloaded onto Cellular Networks pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.13: Total Data Traffic Onloaded onto Cellular Networks pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure 3.17: Total Data Traffic Onloaded as Percentage of Total Data Traffic Generated onto Cellular Networks pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.14: Total Data Traffic Onloaded as Percentage of Total Data Traffic Generated onto Cellular Networks pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
  • 3.6 Mobile Network Traffic Forecast
    • 3.6.1 Total Data Traffic Through the Cellular Network
    • Figure 3.18: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.15: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • 3.6.2 Mobile Network Traffic Offload
    • Figure 3.19: Effective Cellular Network Traffic Offload Levels (%) Split by Data Traffic Type 2012-2017
    • Table 3.16: Effective Cellular Network Traffic Offload Levels (%) Split by Data Traffic Type 2012-2017
    • Figure 3.20: Effective Cellular Network Traffic Offload Levels (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Table 3.17: Effective Cellular Network Traffic Offload Levels (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017

4. Vendor Strategies

  • 4.1 Vendor Analysis
    • 4.1.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria
    • Table 4.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors
    • 4.1.2 Limitations and Interpretation
  • 4.2 Vendor Positioning Matrix Results
    • 4.2.1 Overall Matrix Position
    • Figure 4.1: Mobile Data Offload Device Vendor Positioning Matrix
    • 4.2.2 Vendor Groupings
      • i. Summary
      • ii. On Track Vendors
      • iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
      • iv. Vendors with Further Potential
    • 4.2.3 Competitive Dynamics
  • 4.3 Ubiquisys
    • Figure 4.2: Ubiquisys Small Cell Systems Portfolio
  • 4.4 Ericsson (BelAir Networks)
  • 4.5 Devicescape
  • 4.6 ip.access
    • Figure 4.3: Nano3G End to End Picocell and Femtocell Solution for MNOs
    • Figure 4.4: nano3G S8 Access Point
  • 4.7 Kineto Wireless
    • Figure 4.5: Smart Wi-Fi Offload & Smart Comms Solution
  • 4.8 Airvana
    • Figure 4.6: Airvana's Femtocell Network Architecture
    • Figure 4.7: Airvana's Femtocell Access Point
  • 4.9 Stoke
    • Core Network Gateway Offload:
    • Femtocell Offload Solution:
    • Figure 4.8: Femtocell Offload from Stoke
    • Wi-Fi Offload Solution:
    • Figure 4.9: Wi-Fi Data Offload from Stoke
  • 4.10 Ruckus Wireless
    • Figure 4.10: Ruckus Wi-Fi and LTE Small Cell Integrated Network
    • Figure 4.11: Wi-Fi Products from Ruckus Wireless
  • 4.11 Ubee-AirWalk
    • Figure 4.12: AirWalk Small Cell Product Configuration: Residential, Enterprise & Outdoor
  • 4.12 Qualcomm
    • Figure 4.13: Qualcomm Sales Revenue ($m) Split by Segments 2010-2011
    • Figure 4.14: Wi-Fi/3G/4G Offload Scenario

5. Introduction to the Wi-Fi & Small Cell Ecosystem

  • 5.1 Wi-Fi: An Introduction
    • Figure 5.1: Classification of Radio Spectrum
  • 5.2 Wi-Fi Standards
    • Table 5.1: Wi-Fi IEEE 802.11 Standards
    • 5.2.1 2.4GHz Technologies
      • i. IEEE 802.11b
      • ii. IEEE 802.11g
    • 5.2.2 5GHz Technologies
      • i. IEEE 802.11a
      • ii. IEEE802.11n
      • iii IEEE 802.11ac
    • 5.2.3 60GHz Technologies
      • i. IEEE 802.11ad
  • 5.3 Data Offload Using Wi-Fi
    • Figure 5.2: Wi-Fi Connect - Secure Log-In from Verizon
    • 5.3.1 Architecture
    • Figure 5.3: Wi-Fi Data Offloading
    • Figure 5.4: BT Wi-Fi Application for Mobile and Wi-Fi Access Point
  • 5.4 Carrier Grade Wi-Fi
    • 5.4.1 What is Carrier Grade Wi-Fi?
    • 5.4.2 Hotspot 2.0 and Next Generation Hotspot (NGH)
      • i. Case Study: Wi-Fi Alliance
    • a. Strategic Directives
      • ii. Case Study: Boingo
    • a. Strategic Directives & Business Model
    • Figure 5.6: Boingo Global Hotspot Availability Map
  • 5.5 Small Cells
    • 5.5.1 What are Small Cells?
    • Figure 5.7: Small Cells Network
    • Table 5.2: Small Cells Classification and Features
    • Figure 5.8: Small Cells Deployment Types
    • 5.5.3 Technology - Microcells & Metrocells
    • Figure 5.9: Microcell in a Metro Area
    • 5.5.4 Technology - Picocells
    • Figure 5.10: Installed Picocell on a Building
    • 5.5.5 Technology - Femtocells
    • Figure 5.11: Femtocell - Oyster 3G and Verizon's Network Extender (Samsung)
    • Figure 5.12: Femtocell Network at Home
    • 5.5.6 Small Cell Offload
    • 5.5.7 Femtocell Offload Architecture
    • Figure 5.13: Internet Access via a Femtocell Architecture
    • Figure 5.14: Internet Access via a Selected IP Traffic Offload Enabled Femtocell Architecture
  • 5.6 Heterogeneous Network
    • Figure 5.15: Macro Coverage Improvement Using Microcells
    • 5.6.1 SON
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