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Mobile Data Offload & Onload

Juniper Research is the only analyst house delivering a unique and complete picture of data migration models - from mobile to fixed (data offload), as well as data migration from fixed to mobile (data onload), providing a clear picture for studying the impact of data traffic growth.

Juniper's market leading research provides valuable insight into the multifaceted offload value chain and delivers an in-depth appraisal of the growing demand for mobile data and offload solutions.

Key Features

  • Evaluates in-depth the challenges confronting MNOs and examines the strategies which are being embraced by the mobile operators and how this has changed over the past 12 months.
  • Highlights the advancement of carrier grade Wi-Fi and the architecture of both Wi-Fi and Small Cell offload technologies.
  • Interviews with leading players across the value chain, including Boingo, Devicescape, Ericsson, Ixia, ip.access, Kineto, Qualcomm, Ruckus Wireless, Ubiquisys and Wi-Fi Alliance.
  • Key player capability and capacity assessment, together with vendor market positioning matrix.
  • Benchmark industry forecasts for size and growth of mobile data traffic and offload data traffic.

Key Questions

  • 1. What strategies have operators evolved to deal with network congestion?
  • 2. How much data will be onloaded back onto the network?
  • 3. How to monetise mobile data offloading?
  • 4. What are the different mobile data offloading technologies?
  • 5. What is the current market in terms of data offloading?

Companies Referenced

Interviewed : Boingo Wireless, Devicescape, Epitiro, Ericsson, ip.access, Ixia, Kineto Wireless, Qualcomm, Ruckus Wireless, Ubee AirWalk , Ubiquisys, Wi-Fi Alliance

Profiled : Ubiquisys, Ericsson (BelAir Networks), Devicescape, ip.access, Kineto, Airvana, Stoke, Ruckus Wireless, Ubee AirWalk, Qualcomm

Case Studied : Wi-Fi Alliance, Boingo Wireless, Orange, AT&T, Vodafone, KPN, Softbank, Verizon Wireless

Referenced : 72 Mobile Acquisition Corp, AC Restaurants, Accel Partners, Accuris Networks, ADC, ADP telecom, Advent Venture Partners, Aircel, Airvana, AirWalk Communications, Alcatel Lucent, Alta Berkeley, Amadeus Capital Partners Limited, Amdocs, Apple, Aptilo Networks, Arieso, AT&T, Atheros, Atlas Venture, August Capital, Azal Airlines, Azerfon, BBC, BDC Venture Capital, BelAir Networks, Bharti Airtel, BlackBerry, Bluetooth, Boingo Wireless, Bouygues Télécom, Bridgewater Systems, BT, Kineto, Campanile, Caufield & Byers, CEGETEL, Cellcom, China Mobile, China Unicom, Cisco, Comcast, Concourse Communications Group, DAG Ventures, DesignArt, DOCOMO, Docomo Capital Inc, DOVADO, Duchossois Technology Partners, EDC, Enterprise Partners, Ericsson, Face.com, Facebook, Federal Communications Commission, Firelake Capital, Five Continents Consulting Group, Focus Ventures, France Telecom Orange, Freescale, GigXone BelAir Networks, Google, Greenpacket, Guangxi Unicom, Hilton, Hrakto, HTC, Huawei, Integral Capital Partners, Intel Capital, Intellinet, Intellinet-tech, Interdigital, Intouch Seamless Data Offload, Investor AB, ip.access, iPass, IPR, JAFCO, JiWire, Kineto, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, KPN Netherlands, KT, La Place, LG, LG+, LLC, Marks & Spencer, McDonald's, McLean Watson Capital, MetroPCS, Mitusi & Co, MMV Financial Inc, Mobidia, Mobile Internet Capital, Mobile Venture Fund, Mosaic Telecom, Motorola, Nar Mobile, NEC, Nedelco Inc, Nissay Capital, Nokia Siemens Networks (NEC), ntel Corporation, O2, Oak Investment Partners, Ofcom, Oyster, Pacific Venture Partners, Panorama Capital, Passpoint, Perkins, Pilot House Ventures, Presidio STX, Proxim Wireless, Public Mobile, Qualcomm, Real Wireless Ltd, Reliance Technology Ventures Ltd, Rothschild, Ruckus Wireless, Sagemcom, Saguna, Samsung, Scottish Equity Partners, Seapoint Ventures, Sequoia Capital, SerComm, Sevin Rosen Funds, SFR, Shaanxi Normal University (SNNU), Sky, Small Cell Forum, Smart, SNCF, SoftBank, Starbucks, Stoke, Storm Ventures, Superdrug, Sutter Hill Ventures, Taqua LLC, Telefonica O2, Telenor Group, The 3GPP, The BBC, The Cloud, TL Ventures, T-Mobile USA, T-Mobile Venture Fund, Trilogy Equity Partners, T-Venture, Twitter, Ubee AirWalk, UMC Capital Corporation, Van Der Valk, VenGrowth Capital partners, Venrock, Venture Partners, Ventures West Management Inc, Verizon, Virgin Media, Vodafone, Waterstones, Weroam, Wi-Fi Alliance, Wilocity, Wireless Broadband Alliance, Wireless Gigabit Alliance, WK Technology Fund, Yasuda Enterprise Development, YouTube, Zain Bahrain, Zigbee, ZTE.

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper Research's highly granular interactive Excels enable clients to manipulate Juniper's forecast data and charts to test their own assumptions, perform what-if analysis; and compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase clients' ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

Forecast suite includes:

  • Country level data splits for Canada, US, Germany, UK, Japan, South Korea and India, as well as 8 key regions.
  • Device splits by smartphones, featurephones, tablets, notebooks & eReaders.
  • What-If Analysis tool allowing user the ability to manipulate Juniper's data for 25 different metrics.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of 140 tables and over 15,000 datapoints.

Table of Contents

1. Market Trends & Competitive Landscape Table of Contents

1. The MNO Challenge

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 Mobile Data Offload
    • Figure 1.1: Data Offloading for Capacity
    • 1.2.1 Why Wi-Fi and Small Cell Offload?
  • 1.3 Mobile Data Onload
    • Figure 1.2: Data Migration from Mobile to Fixed and Fixed to Mobile
  • 1.4 The Network Challenge
    • Figure & Table 1.3: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2012-2017
  • 1.5 Mobile Data Growth
    • Figure 1.4: Data Growth Factors
      • i. Smartphone Adoption and More Available Internet Capable Devices
      • ii. New Data Services, High Speed & High Quality Downloads
      • Figure 1.5: Proportion of Requests for TV Programmes across BBC iPlayer (%) by Device Type in 2012
  • 1.6 The Scale of the Challenge
    • 1.6.1 New Connected Devices
    • Figure 1.6: Google Project Glass
    • 1.6.2 The Advancement and Domination of Smartphones
    • Figure 1.7: Global Smartphone Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
    • 1.6.3 The 'Stay Connected' Trend
    • 1.6.4 Mobile Data Traffic Growth
    • Figure & Table 1.8: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure & Table 1.9: Base Line Analysis of Mobile Data and Data Revenue Growth, 2012-2017
  • 1.7 MNO Strategies
    • 1.7.1 Scaling
    • 1.7.2 Network Optimisation
    • 1.7.3 Data Traffic Offload
      • i. Example: AT&T
      • Figure 1.10: AT&T Wi-Fi Hotspot Locations
  • 1.8 Why Data Offload?
    • 1.8.1 Mobile Network Challenges
    • i. RAN Evolution and Expansion
    • 1.8.2 Cost Reduction and Enhanced Revenue
    • 1.8.3 Patchy Coverage
    • 1.8.4 New Business Opportunities
  • 1.9 Offloading Challenges
    • 1.9.1 Seamless User Experience and Security
    • 1.9.2 Broad Deployment
    • 1.9.3 Roaming Challenges
    • 1.9.4 Legal and Regulatory Issues
    • 1.9.5 Branding and Marketing approach
    • 1.9.6 Conclusion

2. Market Status & Business Case Scenarios: Monetising the Data Upsurge

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Operator Market Status
    • 2.2.1 Orange
    • i. Business Model
  • 2.3 AT&T USA
    • i. Strategy
    • ii. Business Model
    • iii. AT&T Wi-Fi Hotspots & Connection Growth
    • Figure 2.1: AT&T Wi-Fi Connection Volumes (m), Split by Quarters Q1 2008-Q4 2012
  • 2.4 SoftBank Japan
    • Figure 2.2: Femtocell - Home Antenna FT from Softbank Japan
  • 2.5 Vodafone
    • Figure 2.3: Vodafone Sure Signal
    • Figure 2.4: Vodafone New Zealand Sure Signal Business Plan for Consumers & Enterprise
  • 2.6 Verizon Wireless
  • 2.7 KPN Netherlands
    • Table 2.5: KPN Wi-Fi Subscription Packages (as at March 2013)
  • 2.8 Monetising Offload Solution
    • Figure 2.6: Mobile Data Offload Value Chain
    • 2.8.1 Monetisation Opportunities for MNOs
      • i. Incremental Service Revenue
      • Figure 2.7: Data Offload Monetisation Opportunities
      • ii. Cost Savings
      • iii. Future Infrastructure Support
      • iv. Reduced Churn
      • v. New Business Opportunities
      • vi. International Roaming Opportunity
  • 2.9 Business Case Scenarios & Analysis
    • Figure 2.8: Mobile Internet Access: Technology, Device & Location Details
    • 2.9.1 Wi-Fi Offload Model
    • Figure 2.9: Wireless Router Take-up against Broadband Take-Up in the UK 44
    • Table 2.10: Wi-Fi Offload for Mobile Network Operators
    • Figure & Table 2.11: Global Wi-Fi Access Points Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
      • i. Consumer Initiated Model
      • ii. Mobile Network Operator Initiated Model
      • Table 2.12: Basic Mobile Pay Monthly Plans with Wi-Fi Bundle Details
    • 2.9.2 Small Cell Offload Model
    • Figure & Table 2.13: Global Small Cell Access Points Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
      • i. Consumer Initiated Model
      • ii. Operator Initiated Model
  • 2.10 Conclusion

3. Introduction to the Wi-Fi & Small Cell Ecosystem

  • 3.1 Wi-Fi: An Introduction
    • Figure 3.1: Classification of Radio Spectrum
  • 3.2 Wi-Fi Standards
    • 3.2.1 2.4GHz Technologies
      • i. IEEE 802.11b
      • Table 3.2: Wi-Fi IEEE 802.11 Standards
      • ii. IEEE 802.11g
    • 3.2.2 5GHz Technologies
      • i. IEEE 802.11a
      • ii. IEEE802.11n
      • iii. IEEE 802.11ac
    • 3.2.3 60GHz Technologies
      • i. IEEE 802.11ad
  • 3.3 Data Offload Using Wi-Fi
    • Figure 3.3: Wi-Fi Connect - Secure Log-In from Verizon
    • 3.3.1 Architecture
    • Figure 3.4: Wi-Fi Data Offloading
    • Figure 3.5: BT Wi-Fi Application for Mobile and Wi-Fi Access Point
  • 3.4 Carrier Grade Wi-Fi
    • 3.4.1 What is Carrier Grade Wi-Fi?
    • 3.4.2 Hotspot 2.0 and Next Generation Hotspot
    • Figure 3.6: Boingo Global Hotspot Availability Map
  • 3.5 Small Cells
    • 3.5.1 What are Small Cells?
    • Figure 3.7: Small Cells Network
    • Table 3.8: Small Cells Classification and Features
    • Figure 3.9: Small Cells Deployment Types
    • 3.5.2 Technology - Microcells & Metrocells
    • Figure 3.10: Microcell in a Metro Area
    • 3.5.3 Technology - Picocells
    • Figure 3.11: Installed Picocell on a Building
    • Figure 3.12: Femtocell - Oyster 3G and Verizon's Network Extender (Samsung)
    • Figure 3.13: Femtocell Network at Home
    • 3.5.4 Small Cell Offload
    • 3.5.5 Femtocell Offload Architecture
    • Figure 3.14: Internet Access via a Femtocell Architecture
    • Figure 3.15: Internet Access via a Selected IP Traffic Offload Enabled Femtocell Architecture
  • 3.6 5.6 Heterogeneous Network
    • Figure 3.16: Macro Coverage Improvement Using Microcells
    • 3.6.1 SON

4. Vendor Strategies

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Vendor Analysis
    • 4.2.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria
    • Table 4.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors
    • 4.2.2 Limitations and Interpretation
  • 4.3 Vendor Positioning Matrix Results
    • 4.3.1 Overall Matrix Position
    • Figure 4.2: Mobile Data Offload Device Vendor Positioning Matrix
    • 4.3.2 Vendor Groupings
      • i. Summary
      • ii. On Track Vendors
      • iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
      • iv. Vendors with Further Potential
    • 4.3.3 Competitive Dynamics
  • 4.4 Mobile Data Offload & Onload Market: Movers & Shakers
  • 4.5 Ubiquisys
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • iii. Products Offered
    • Figure 4.3: Ubiquisys Small Cell Systems Portfolio
    • iv. Strategic Assessment
    • v. Key Developments
  • 4.6 Ericsson (BelAir Networks)
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • iii. Strategic Assessment
  • 4.7 Devicescape
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • iii. Strategic Assessment
    • iv. Key Developments
  • 4.8 ip.access
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • Figure 4.4: Nano3G End to End Picocell and Femtocell Solution for MNOs
    • Figure 4.5: nano3G S8 Access Point
    • iii. Strategic Assessment
    • iv. Recent Developments
  • 4.9 Kineto Wireless
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • Figure 4.6: Smart Wi-Fi Offload & Smart Comms Solution
    • iii. Strategic Assessment
    • iv. Key Developments
  • 4.10 Airvana
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • Figure 4.7: Airvana's Femtocell Network Architecture
    • Figure 4.8: Airvana's Femtocell Access Point
    • iii. Strategic Assessment
    • iv. Key Developments
  • 4.11 Stoke
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • Figure 4.9: Femtocell Offload from Stoke
    • Figure 4.10: Wi-Fi Data Offload from Stoke
    • iii. Key Developments
  • 4.12 Ruckus Wireless
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • Figure 4.11: Ruckus Wi-Fi and LTE Small Cell Integrated Network
    • iii. Recent Developments
  • 4.13 Ubee AirWalk
    • i. Company Profile
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • Figure 4.12: AirWalk Small Cell Product Configuration: Residential, Enterprise & Outdoor
    • iii. Strategic Assessment
    • iv. Key Developments
  • 4.14 Qualcomm
    • i. Company Profile
    • Figure 4.13: Qualcomm Sales Revenue ($m) Split by Segments 2010 2011 101
    • ii. Offload Market Positioning - Products & Services
    • Figure 4.14: Wi-Fi/3G/4G Offload Scenario
    • iii. Strategic Assessment
    • iv. Key Developments

2. Market Sizing & Forecasts Table of Contents

1. Market Forecast Assumptions & Methodology

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 Methodology and Assumptions
    • Figure 1.1: Mobile Data Offloading Market Forecast Methodology
    • Figure 1.2: Offload & Onload Data Traffic Forecast Derivation Method

2. Mobile Data Offload Forecasts

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Total Data Traffic Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones and Tablets
    • Figure & Table 2.1: Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets (PB) pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
  • 2.3 Mobile Data Traffic over the Cellular Network
    • Figure & Table 2.2: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets as Percentage of Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated, Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure & Table 2.3: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network Generated by Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
  • 2.4 Total Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded
    • Figure & Table 2.4: Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded from the Cellular Network pa as Percentage of Total Cellular Mobile Data Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017 14
    • Figure & Table 2.5: Total Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded from the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
  • 2.5 Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi and Small Cells
    • 2.5.1 Small Cell Take-Up Forecast
    • Figure & Table 2.6: Small Cell Take-Up as Percentage of Fixed Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • 2.5.2 Mobile Data Offloaded via Small Cell
    • Figure & Table 2.7: Mobile Data Offloaded via Small Cell as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure & Table 2.8: Mobile Data Offloaded via Small Cell pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • 2.5.3 Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi
    • Figure 2.9: Free and Paid Wi-Fi Hotspot Availability in North America
    • Figure & Table 2.10: Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure & Table 2.11: Mobile Data Offloaded via Wi-Fi pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017

3. Mobile Data Onload Forecasts

  • 3.1 Introduction
    • Figure 3.1: Active Fixed vs Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Developed & Developing Regions (m) 2007-2012
  • 3.2 Total Data Usage by Devices
    • Figure & Table 3.2: Total Data Usage by Fixed Devices with Cellular Connectivity pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
  • 3.3 Total Data Traffic Onload
    • Figure & Table 3.3: Total Data Traffic Onloaded onto Cellular Networks pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
    • Figure & Table 3.4: Total Data Traffic Onloaded as Percentage of Total Data Traffic Generated onto Cellular Networks pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017 30

4. Mobile Network Traffic Forecast

  • 4.1 Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network
    • Figure & Table 4.1: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
  • 4.2 Mobile Network Traffic Offload
    • Figure & Table 4.2: Effective Cellular Network Traffic Offload Levels (%) Split by Data Traffic Type 2012-2017
    • Figure & Table 4.3: Effective Cellular Network Traffic Offload Levels (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
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