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Mobile Data Offload & Onload

Juniper Research is the only analyst house delivering a unique and complete picture of current and future data migration models. We assess migration from mobile to fixed (data offload), as well as from fixed to mobile (data onload), providing a clear and full picture of data traffic growth and its impact.

Juniper's market leading research provides valuable insight into the multifaceted offload value chain and delivers an in-depth appraisal of the growing demand for mobile data and offload solutions.

Key Features

  • Provides an in-depth evaluation of the challenges confronting MNOs, and examines the strategies which are being embraced by the mobile operators and how this has changed over the past 12 months.
  • Highlights the advancement of Wi-Fi and the Small Cell market for data offload.
  • Includes interviews with leading players across the value chain, including Boingo, Devicescape, Ruckus Wireless, TEOCO, Aptilo Networks, iPass, AT&T, and Orange.
  • Assesses the leading players through a 'Key player capability and capacity assessment', together with a vendor market positioning matrix.
  • Includes benchmark industry forecasts for the size and growth of mobile data traffic and offload data traffic.
  • We highlight and profile the key executives driving the sector in our 'Movers & Shakers' review.

Key Questions

  • 1. What strategies have operators developed to deal with network congestion?
  • 2. How will M2M data usage across key verticals increase over the next 5 years?
  • 3. How much data traffic will be onloaded to the network?
  • 4. What are the different offload business models adopted by operators and service providers?
  • 5. What is the current and future market in terms of data offloading?

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: Aptilo Networks, AT&T, Boingo Wireless, Devicescape, iPass, Orange, Ruckus Wireless, TEOCO.

Profiled: Airvana, Amdocs, Aptilo Networks, Boingo Wireless, Cisco, Devicescape, Ericsson, ip.access, iPass, Qualcomm, Ruckus Wireless, Taqua.

Case Studied: AT&T, Boingo Wireless, BT, EE, Fon, Wi Fi Alliance.

Mentioned: 2 Degrees, 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project), Accor SA, Accuris Networks, CAN, Actix, Adtran, Advanced Wireless Group, AIS Thailand, Alcatel-Lucent, Alteon WebSystems, America Movil, Apple, ARM, Arieso, Arris, Aruba, Atheros, Atos, Axis, Axtel, Bay Networks, BBC, Bell Labs, Bell Mobility, Bharti Airtel, BlackBerry, Bright House Networks, Broadcom, Broadhop, Broadsoft, BSG Wireless, Bytemobile, CableLabs, Calix, Cambridge Wireless, Celcite, Centillion Networks, China Mobile, China Telecom, Cisco, Citrix, Comcast, Deutsche Telekom, Electronic Media Systems, Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company (du), ETSI, Far EasTone, Flash Networks, Flash Wireless, Freescale, Front Porch, Genband, Global Reach, Google, GSA (Global Mobile Suppliers Association), HiSilicon Technologies, Hitachi, HKT, HP, HTC, Huawei, Idea Cellular, IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers), Intel, Interop Technologies, Intucell, Jazztel, Katoen Natie, Kawasaki Motors, KDDI, KPN, KT, Lantiq, Le Pain Quotidien, Leap, LG, Linktel, Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group, Marriott, Marston's, Marvell Technology, Maxim Integrated Products, MediaTek, MetroPCS, Microcell, Microsoft, Mobilink, Mobily, Motorola, Movirtu, MTN Nigeria,MWEB, Network Vendors IOT Forum, NeuStar NGM, Nokia, Nortel, NTT DOCOMO, nVidia, O2, Oi, Omantel, Oracle, Orange, PCCW, Portugal Telecom, Proxim Wireless, Public Mobile, Real Wireless, Realtek Semiconductor, Saguna, Samsung, SFR, Shaw Communications, SK Telecom, Small Cell Forum, Smart, Softbank, Sonera, SpiderCloud Wireless, Spirent, Spreadtrum Communications, Sprint, Sri Lanka Telecom Mobitel, Swisscom, Sun, Syniverse, TDC, TechMahindra, Telefonica, Telkom Indonesia, TeliaSonera, Telstra, TELUS, Texas Instruments, The Cloud, Three, Time Warner, T-Mobile, Towerstream, True Corporation, Verizon, Vertu, VIA Telecom, Viatel, Videotron, Vimpelcom, Virgin, Vodafone, Waterstones, WBA (Wireless Broadband Alliance), wefi, Wireless Gigabit Alliance, WXBR, XL Axiata, Ya.com, YouTube, ZTE.

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper Research's highly granular interactive Excels enable clients to manipulate Juniper's forecast data and charts to test their own assumptions by performing what-if analysis, and compare select markets and sectors side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase clients' ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

Forecast suite includes:

  • Country level data splits for Canada, US, Germany, UK, Japan, South Korea and India, as well as 8 key regions.
  • Device splits by smartphones, tablets, featurephones, M2M, notebooks and eReaders.
  • Data traffic splits by application and content type.
  • A 'What-If' Analysis tool that allows users to test their own assumptions by manipulating Juniper data for 25 different metrics.

Access to the full set of forecast data of more than 100 tables and 15,000 datapoints.

Table of Contents

1. The MNO Challenge

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 Mobile Data Offload
    • Figure 1.1: Data Offloading for Capacity
    • 1.2.1 The Demand for Wi-Fi and Small Cell Offload
      • i. Case Study: EE Wi-Fi Calling
  • 1.3 Mobile Data Onload
    • Figure 1.2: Data Migration from Mobile to Fixed and Fixed to Mobile
  • 1.4 The Network Challenge
    • 1.4.1 Flatlining Revenues, Rising Capex, Rising Opex
    • Figure & Table 1.3: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU & Operator-Billed Revenues 2013-2019
    • Figure & Table 1.4: Figure & Table 1.4: Global MNO Service Revenues vs Capex/Opex ($bn) 2013-2018
    • 1.4.2 Mobile Data Growth
    • Figure 1.5: Mobile Data Growth Drivers (Y-o-Y % Growth) 2013-2014
    • Figure 1.6: Data Growth Factors
    • Figure 1.7: Proportion of Requests for TV Programmes across BBC iPlayer (%) by Device Type in 2011-2014
  • 1.5 The Scale of the Challenge
    • 1.5.1 New Connected Devices
    • Figure 1.8: Google Project Glass
    • 1.5.2 The Advance and Domination of Smartphones
    • Figure 1.9: Global Smartphone Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
    • 1.5.3 The 'Stay Connected' Trend
    • 1.5.4 Mobile Data Traffic Growth
    • Figure 1.10: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network pa (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
    • Figure & Table 1.11: Base Line Analysis of Mobile Data and Data Revenue Growth 2014-2019
  • 1.6 MNO Strategies
    • 1.6.1 Scaling & Network Sharing
    • Figure 1.12: Active vs Passive RAN Sharing Infrastructure Models
    • 1.6.2 Network Optimisation
    • 1.6.3 Data Traffic Offload
  • 1.7 Why Data Offload
    • i. Case Study: AT & T
    • Figure 1.13: AT&T Wi-Fi Hotspot Locations
    • 1.7.1 Mobile Network Challenges
    • 1.7.2 Cost Reduction and Enhanced Revenue
    • 1.7.3 Patchy Coverage
    • Figure 1.14: Cellular and Wi-Fi Coverage Continuity - Devicescape Snapsot
    • 1.7.4 New Business Opportunities
  • 1.8 Offloading Challenges
    • 1.8.1 Seamless User Experience, Signalling and Security
    • 1.8.2 Broad Deployment
    • 1.8.3 Roaming Challenges
    • 1.8.4 Legal and Regulatory Issues
    • 1.8.5 Branding and Marketing Approach

2. Market Status & Business Case Scenarios: Monetising the Data Upsurge

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Selected Operator Market Status
    • 2.2.1 EE UK
    • 2.2.2 AT & T USA
    • Figure 2.1: AT&T Wi-Fi Connection Volumes (m) Split by Quarters 2008-2014e.
    • Figure 2.2: AT&T Customer Data Usage - National College Football Championship
    • 2.2.3 Vodafone
    • Figure 2.3: Vodafone Sure Signal
    • 2.2.4 Bharti Airtel - India & Africa
  • 2.3 Monetising Offload Solutions
    • Figure 2.4: Mobile Data Offload Value Chain
    • 2.3.1 Monetisation Opportunities for MNOs
    • Figure 2.5: Data Offload Monetisation Opportunities
  • 2.4 Business Case Scenarios & Analysis
    • 2.4.1 Wi-Fi Offload Model
    • Figure 2.6: Wireless Router Take-up against Broadband Take-up in the UK
      • i. Case Study: Fon
      • Figure 2.7: Wi-Fi Offload for MNOs
      • ii. Case Study: BT UK
      • Figure 2.8: Number of UK Hotspots, Selected Cities
      • Figure & Table 2.9: Global Wi-Fi AP Equipment Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
    • 2.4.2 Consumer Initiated Model
    • 2.4.3 Mobile Network Operator Initiated Model
    • Table 2.10: Selected Pay Monthly Plans & Wi-Fi Bundle Details
    • Figure 2.11: Number of Public Wi-Fi Hotspots Available (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
    • 2.4.4 Small Cell Offload Model
    • Figure & Table 2.12: Global Small Cell APs Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
      • i. Consumer Initiated Model
      • ii. Operator Initiated Model
  • 2.5 Conclusion

3. Vendor Strategies & Competitive Analysis

  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Vendor Analysis
    • 3.2.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria
    • Table 3.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors
    • 3.2.2 Limitations and Interpretation
  • 3.3 Vendor Positioning Matrix Results
    • 3.3.1 Overall Matrix Position
    • Figure 3.2: Mobile Data Offload Device Vendor Positioning Matrix
    • Figure 3.3: Mobile Data Offload Device Vendor Positioning Matrix Scoring
    • 3.3.2 Vendor Groupings
      • i. Summary
      • ii. On Track Vendors
      • iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
      • iv. Vendors with Further Potential
  • 3.4 Mobile Data Offlaod & Onload Market: Movers & Shakers
  • 3.5 Player Profiles
    • 3.5.1 Cisco
      • i. Company Profile
      • Figure 3.4:Cisco Revenue 2012-2014 ($bn)
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • Figure 3.5: Cisco Converged Network Architecture
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.2 Ericsson (BelAir Networks)
      • i. Company Profile
      • Figure 3.6: Ericsson Financial Year Snapshot (SEK Bn) 2013-2014
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • Figure 3.7: Ericsson Regional Financial Performance (%) - 2014
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • Figure 3.8: Ericsson Carrier Wi-Fi Product Snapshot
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.3 Devicescape
      • i. Company Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.4 ip.access
      • i. Company Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • Figure 3.9: Nano3G End-to-End Picocell and Femtocell Solution for MNOs
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.5 Taqua (Kineto Wireless)
      • i. Company Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.6 Airvana
      • i. Company Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • Figure 3.10: Airvana's Femtocell AP
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.7 Amdocs
      • i. Company Profile
      • Figure 3.11: Amdocs Financial Performance Snapshot, 2013-2014
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • Figure 3.12: Amdocs Wi-Fi Experience Solution
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.8 Ruckus Wireless
      • i. Company Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • Figure 3.13: Ruckus Wireless Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2011-2014
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • Figure 3.14: Ruckus Wi-Fi and LTE Small Cell Integrated Network
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.9 Qualcomm
      • i. Company Profile
      • Figure 3.15: Qualcomm Sales Revenue ($m) Split by Segments 2010-2011
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • Figure 3.16: Wi-Fi/3G/4G Offload Scenario
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.10 Boingo Wireless
      • i. Company Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • Figure 3.17: Boingo Wireless Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014
      • Figure 3.18: Boingo Global Hotspot Availability Map
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 3.5.11 iPass
      • i. Company Profile
      • Figure 3.19: iPass Financial Performance Snapshot ($m) 2012-2014
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • Figure 3.20: iPass Financial Revenue Split by Global Regions (%) 2012-2014
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
    • 3.5.12 Aptilo Networks
      • i. Company Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Offload Market Positioning
      • Figure 3.21: Carrier Wi-Fi Snapshot - Aptilo Networks
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
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