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Smart Home Ecosystems & the Internet of Things: Strategies & Forecasts 2014-2018

This report provides:

  • Comprehensive ecosystem analysis
  • Smart Home IoT enablement
  • Industry benchmark forecasts

This second edition of Juniper's market-leading report on Smart Home Ecosystems provides definitive insight into the Smart Home market, together with a comprehensive suite of five year projections which assess the anticipated Smart Home market opportunity to 2018. This edition includes an extensive analysis of the Smart Home landscape along with an in-depth focus on the opportunities, drivers and constraints faced by the different stakeholders within the ecosystem. The report's associated IFxl (Interactive Forecast Excel) contains all regional and sector forecasts from this report, plus country level forecasts for the US, Canada, UK, Germany, Japan and South Korea.

What This Report Covers

The Internet of Things

This report explores the growing notion that devices in the home not traditionally communicating with the Internet can be connected and brought into the IoT (‘Internet of Things'). Readers will find in-depth analysis of the drivers and challenges faced by players across the Smart Home value chain, alongside strategic recommendations for kick-starting Smart Home IoT and maximising revenue potentials.

20 Stakeholder Case Studies

Detailing the work of stakeholders across the value chain, including:

  • Standards' and organisations' work
  • Connectivity providers
  • CE players
  • Content & app providers
  • Chipset manufacturers

These case-studies are supplemented by 7 exclusive interviews with key enablers, Amdocs, Awox, Home Gateway Initiative, HomeGrid Forum, Marvell, TiVo and UPnP Forum, bringing seamless integration of technology into the Smart Home.

New & Updated Forecast Suite

With five exclusive chapters of forecasts in the report, this updated study provides an extensive breakdown for the following data points:

  • Smart Home Entertainment: Connected CE devices and revenue ($m)
  • Smart Home Monitoring & Control: Smart Meters (m), Monitoring & Control Systems(m) and Revenue ($m)
  • Smart Home Health: Remotely monitored individuals (m) and Revenue ($m)
  • Smart Home Computing Devices (m), Gateways (m) and Smart Appliances (m)

The forecast suite also includes a chapter analysing the evolution and importance of the Smart Home gateway and provides projected numbers across the forecast period.

Smart Home Ecosystems IFxl

This Interactive Forecast Excel, with 64 tables, and over 5,300 data points provides additional granularity for Smart Home devices and revenue across all 8 key regions included in the report; an additional six key country forecasts (Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, UK and US) provide further insight across the Smart Home Entertainment, Appliance and Health segments.

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: Amdocs, Awox, Home Gateway Initiative, HomeGrid Forum, Marvell, TiVo, UPnP Forum.

Profiled: Apple, Belkin, Control4, Honeywell, Microsoft, Nest Labs, PacketVideo, Shazam, Verizon.

Case Studied: AllSeen Alliance, Amdocs, Awox, Belkin, Broadband Forum, Digital Living Network Alliance, Home Gateway Initiative, HomeGrid Forum, HomePlug Alliance, Hong Kong Broadband Network, Learning Initiatives on Reforms for Network Economies Asia, Marvell, Microsoft, Netflix, Revolv, Samsung, Shazam, T-Mobile, UPnP Forum, Verizon.

Mentioned: ADT, aigo, Akuacom, AllSeen Alliance, Amazon, Anywhere Artist, Asia Pacific Network Centre, AT&T, Austin Energy, Barnes & Noble, BBC, BedRocket, BestBuy, Biotronik, BL Healthcare, Black & Decker, BlackBerry, Bluetooth Special Interest Group, BMI, British Gas, British Standard Institute, BRK, BT, CableLabs, CardioNet, Cisco, Comcast, Consert, DeepMind, DirecTV, eBay, eCardio, EMI Group, Enel, Entropic Communication, ESPN, Facebook, FOX, Foxconn, FreemantleMedia, Google, Green Mountain Energy, GSMA, Hisense, HomePNA Alliance, Hulu, IEEE, IFTTT Inc, Infinite Energy, Intel, International Electrotechnical Commission, International Internet Exchange, International Standards Organization, Institute for Electric Efficiency, IOActive, ITV, Kwikset, Last.fm, LG, LifeWatch, Linksys, Linux, LOVEFiLM, Lowe's, Lutron, Mitsumi, Motorola, National Grid, NBC, New Jersey Natural Gas, Ninja Blocks, Nintendo, Nokia, NRG residential solutions, NTT DoCoMo, o2, Opower, Pace, Panasonic, Paypal, Phillips, Pioneer, Pubnub, Qualcomm, Reliant, Roku, Sandvine, Savant, ShunCloud, Sierra Wireless, Sigma Designs, Silicon Labs, Sky, Skype, SmartThings, Sony, Sorin Group, Southern California Edison, Spotify, Staples, Sub Zero & Wolf, Suddenlink, Syco, Target, Telefonica, Telstra, Texas Instruments, Toon Goggles, TP Vision, Underwriters Laboratories, U-NEXT, Universal Music Group, USTelecom, Vimeo, Virgin, Vodafone, Walmart, Warner Music Group, Western Digital, Wi-Fi Alliance, Xunlei, Yale, Yamaha, Youkou, YouTube, Zenverge, ZigBee Alliance, Z-Wave Alliance.

Extra Info

8 Key Regions include: North America; Latin America; Western Europe; Central & Eastern Europe; Far East & China; Indian Subcontinent; Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • ES 1: Introduction
  • ES 2: Defining the Smart Home
  • ES 3: The Internet of Things
  • ES 4: Smart Home Segments
  • ES 5: The Smart Home Landscape
  • ES 6: Bridging the Smart Home
  • ES 7: Smart Home Segment Analysis
  • ES 8: Recommendations

1. The Smart Home

  • 1.1. Concept
    • 1.1.1. Defining the Smart Home
  • 1.2. Evolution of the Smart Home
    • Figure 1.1: Smart Home Elements
    • 1.2.1. The Internet of Things
      • i. Concept
      • ii. Implementation
        • Figure 1.2: IoT Implementation Architecture
        • Figure 1.3: Smart Home IoT Data Flow
      • iii. Caveats
      • iv. The Road-Runner Problem - Collaboration is the Solution
      • iv. Maximising the Internet of Things
    • 1.2.2. Connectivity through IPv6?
    • 1.2.3. Security Concerns
  • 1.3. Segment Overview
    • Figure 1.4: Smart Home Market Segments
  • 1.4. Market Drivers
    • Figure 1.5: Active Fixed vs Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Developed and Developing Regions (m) 2008-2013
    • Table 1.1: Active Fixed vs Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Developed and Developing Regions (m) 2008-2013
    • Figure 1.6: Data Demand Cycle
    • Figure 1.7: Global Smartphone and Tablet Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
  • 1.5. Market Hurdles
    • Figure 1.8: LTE Market Proposition

2. The Smart Home Landscape

  • 2.1. Introduction
  • 2.2. Standards & Organisations
    • 2.2.1. AllSeen Alliance
    • 2.2.2. Broadband Forum
      • Figure 2.1: BBF Mobile Backhaul Standardisation Efforts
    • 2.2.3. DLNA
      • Figure 2.2: DLNA Technical Overview
    • 2.2.4. Home Gateway Initiative
    • 2.2.5. HomeGrid Forum
    • 2.2.6. HomePlug Alliance
    • 2.2.7. UPnP Forum
  • 2.3. Smart Home Value Chain
    • Figure 2.3: Smart Home Stakeholders
    • 2.3.1. Network Connectivity Providers
      • i. The Network
      • ii. Modernising the Network - Case Study: T-Mobile Transitions to IPv6
      • iii. Connection to the Smart Home
      • iv. Dumb Pipe to Smart Pipe - Case Study: Verizon
      • v. The Dumb Pipe Paradox - Case Study: Hong Kong Broadband Network
      • vi. Big Data Opportunities - Case Study: LIRNEasia
    • 2.3.2. Device Vendors
      • i. Hybrid Devices - Case Study: Awox
        • Figure 2.4: Awox StriimLight hybrid light bulb/speaker
      • ii. The All-In-One - Case Study: Microsoft
        • Figure 2.5: Microsoft Xbox One console
      • iii. Breaking Down the Walled Garden - Case Study: Revolv
        • Figure 2.6: Revolv Hub System
      • iv. The Low Cost Avenue into IoT - Case Study: Belkin WeMo
        • Figure 2.7: Belkin WeMo Switch
      • v. CE Giant Steps into The Fray - Case Study: Samsung
        • Figure 2.8: Samsung Smart Home
    • 2.3.3. Content and App providers
      • i. The CDN
        • Figure 2.9: CDN value chain
      • ii. Peering
        • Figure 2.10: Basic Internet transit structure
      • iii. Building Success through Big Data v1 - Case study: Netflix
      • iv. Building Success through Big Data v2 - Case study: Shazam
        • 2.3.4. Chipset, SIMs and Endpoint Modules
      • v. Case Study: Marvell Semiconductor
  • 2.4. Smart Home Segment Analysis
    • Figure 2.10 & Table 2.1: Number of Smart Home Devices & Systems (m) Split by Segments 2013-2018
    • Figure 2.11 & Table 2.2: Smart Home Service Revenue ($m) Split by Segments 2013-2018

3. The Smart Home Network

  • 3.1. Wireless and Wireline technologies
    • Table 3.1: Network technologies in the Smart Home
    • i. DSL
    • ii. Fibre-Optic & Cable Internet
    • iii. Wi-Fi
      • Table 3.2: Wi-Fi IEEE 802.11 Standards
    • iv. ZigBee
    • iv. Z-Wave
    • iv. Bluetooth Smart/Low Energy
    • iv. 2G/3G/LTE

4. Recommendations for Fuelling Smart Home Adoption and IoT

  • 4.1. An Open Ecosystem
    • 4.1.1. The App Store Model
      • Figure 4.1: Smart Home app store actors concept
      • i. End Users
      • ii. Developers
      • iii. Device Manufacturers
      • iv. Platform and Analytics providers
    • 4.1.2. Differentiation
  • 4.2. Cloud Computing
    • Figure 4.2: Smart Home Cloud Computing Infrastructure
    • 4.2.1. Saas - Case Study: Amdocs
      • Figure 4.3: Amdocs Connected Home solution
  • 4.3. Allaying Security and Privacy Concerns

5. The Smart Home Smart Gateway: Market Analysis & Forecasts

  • 5.1. Bridging the Smart Home
    • 5.1.1. Getting Security Right
    • 5.1.2. Market Forecasts
      • Figure 5.1: Broadband Residential Gateway Device Installed Base Forecast Methodology
      • Figure 5.2 & Table 5.1: Global Broadband Residential Gateway Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018

6. Controlling the Smart Home: Market Analysis & Forecasts

  • 6.1. Introduction
    • Figure 6.1: Apple's 2007 iPhone
  • 6.2. Market Trends
    • 6.2.1. The App
      • Figure 6.2: Hive Active Heating System & App
    • 6.2.2. The Disruptive Start-Up
      • i. Google acquires Nest
        • Figure 6.3: Nest Learning Thermostat
  • 6.3. Smart Home Computing Forecasts
    • 6.3.1. Methodology & Assumptions
      • Figure 6.4: Smart Home Computing Forecast Methodology
    • 6.3.2. Smart Home Smartphone Forecast
      • Figure 6.5 & Table 6.1: Smart Home Smartphone Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013 2018
    • 6.3.3. Smart Home Tablets Forecast
      • Figure 6.6 & Table 6.2: Smart Home Tablet Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 6.3.4. Smart Home Wearable Devices Forecast
      • Figure 6.7 & Table 6.3: Smart Home Wearable Device Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 6.3.5. Smart Home Notebooks Forecast
      • Figure 6.8 & Table 6.4: Smart Home Netbook Device Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013 2018
    • 6.3.6. Smart Home Desktop PC Forecast
      • Figure 6.9 & Table 6.5: Smart Home Desktop PC Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013 2018
    • 6.3.7. Smart Home Computing Forecast
      • Figure 6.10 & Table 6.6: Smart Home Computing Devices Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
      • Figure 6.11 & Table 6.7: Smart Home Computing Device Installed Base (m) Split by Device Type 2013-2018

7. Smart Home Entertainment: Market Analysis & Forecasts

  • 7.1. Introduction
  • 7.2. Market Trends
    • 7.2.1. More Please
      • Figure 7.1: Samsung 4K Curved TV (2014)
    • 7.2.2. The Second Screen: Case Study - TiVo
      • Figure 7.2: TiVo Roamio DVR
  • 7.3. Smart Home Entertainment Forecasts
    • 7.3.1. Methodology & Assumptions
      • Figure 7.3: Smart Home Entertainment Forecast Methodology
    • 7.3.2. Connected TV Forecasts
      • Figure 7.4 & Table 7.1: Global Connected TV Sets via Media Players, STBs, Consoles & Smart TV Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 7.3.3. Connected Media Players, Storage & STB Device Forecast
      • Figure 7.5 & Table 7.2: Connected Media Players, Storage & STB Devices Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 7.3.4. Other Connected CE Devices Forecast
      • Figure 7.6: Xbox Live Apps
      • Figure 7.7 & Table 7.3: Other Connected CE Devices Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 7.3.5. Connected eReader Device Forecast
      • Figure 7.8 & Table 7.4: Connected eReader Devices Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013 2018
    • 7.3.6. Total Smart Home Entertainment CE Devices
      • Figure 7.9 & Table 7.5: Connected CE Devices Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 7.3.7. Smart Home Entertainment Revenue Forecast
      • Figure 7.10 & Table 7.6: Connected Households with Entertainment Subscriptions (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
      • Figure 7.11 & Table 7.7: Price per Subscription per Month ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
      • Figure 7.12 & Table 7.8: Smart Home Entertainment Subscription Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
      • Figure 7.13 & Table 7.9: Smart Home Entertainment PPV/DTO Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
      • Figure 7.14 & Table 7.10: Smart Home PPV/DTO ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
      • Figure 7.15 & Table 7.11: Smart Home Entertainment PPV/DTO Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
      • Figure 7.16 & Table 7.12: Total Smart Home Entertainment Service Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018

8. Smart Home Monitoring & Control: Market Analysis & Forecasts

  • 8.1. Introduction
  • 8.2. Market Trends
    • 8.2.1. The Fifth Play
      • Figure 8.1: Comcast Xfinity Home Automation
    • 8.2.2. Smart Metering
  • 8.3. Market Forecasts
    • 8.3.1. Smart Metering
    • 8.3.3. Smart Metering Methodology & Assumptions
      • Figure 8.2: Smart Metering Forecasts Methodology
      • Table 8.1: Penetration Rate of Smart Meters (% of Households) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
      • Figure 8.3 & Table 8.2: Number of Cellular Connected Smart Meters (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 8.3.4. Smart Meter Service Revenues
      • Figure 8.4 & Table 8.3: Service Revenues from Smart Metering ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013 2018
      • Figure 8.5 & Table 8.4: Smart Metering, Connectivity Enablement Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 8.3.5. Smart Home Security & Control
    • 8.3.6. Smart Home Security & Control Methodology & Assumptions
      • Figure 8.6: Smart Home Security & Control Forecast Methodology
    • 8.3.7. Smart Home Security & Control Forecast
      • Figure 8.7 & Table 8.5: Number of Smart Home Security & Control Systems (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 8.3.8. Smart Home Security & Control Revenue Forecast
      • Figure 8.8 & Table 8.6: Service Revenues from Smart Home Security & Control Systems ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 8.3.9. Smart Home Connected Appliances
    • 8.3.10. Smart Home Connected Appliances Methodology & Assumptions
      • Figure 8.9: Smart Home Connected Appliance Forecast Methodology
    • 8.3.11. Smart Home Connected Appliance Forecast
      • Figure 8.10 & Table 8.7: Smart Home Connected Appliance Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018

9. Smart Home Health: Market Analysis & Forecast

  • 9.1. Introduction
  • 9.2. Market Trends
    • Figure 9.1: Qualcomm Life mHealth Platform
  • 9.3. Market Forecasts
    • 9.3.1. Smart Home mHealth Methodology & Assumptions
      • Figure 9.2: mHealth Forecast Methodology
    • 9.3.2. Smart Home mHealth Forecasts
      • Figure 9.3 & Table 9.1: Number of Monitored Individuals (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
    • 9.3.3. Service Revenues from Remote Health Monitoring
      • Figure 9.4 & Table 9.2: Service Revenues from Health Monitoring ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018

10. Stakeholder Profiles & Matrix

  • 10.1. Introduction
  • 10.2. Stakeholder Positioning
    • 10.2.1. Stakeholder Assessment Methodology
      • Table 10.1: Stakeholder Capability Assessment Criteria
    • 10.2.2. Limitations and Interpretation
    • 10.2.3. Positioning Matrix Results
      • Figure 10.1: Global Smart Home Stakeholder Positioning Matrix
    • 10.2.4. Stakeholder Groupings
      • i. Summary
      • ii. On Track Vendors
      • iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
      • iv. Vendors with Further Potential
    • 10.2.5. Conclusion
  • 10.3. Stakeholder Analysis
    • 10.3.1. Verizon Communications Inc
      • Figure 10.1: Verizon Communications Inc Revenues ($m) Split by Key Segments 2010-2012
    • 10.3.2. Control4
      • Figure 10.2: Control4 Communications Inc Revenues ($000) 2008-2012
      • Figure 10.3: Control4 Communications Loss from Operations ($000) 2008-2012
    • 10.3.3. PacketVideo/Twonky
    • 10.3.4. Microsoft Corporation
      • Figure 10.4: Microsoft Corporation Revenues ($m) 2009-2013
    • 10.3.5. Apple Inc
      • Figure 10.5: Apple Inc Net Sales ($m) 2009-2013
    • 10.3.6. Shazam
    • 10.3.7. Belkin
    • 10.3.8. Nest Labs
    • 10.3.9. Honeywell
      • Figure 10.7: Honeywell International Inc Net Sales ($m) 2008-2012
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