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5G Market Strategies

Juniper Research has a long track record of research and analysis across the 2G, 3G, & 4G mobile space. We maintain a detailed database of all mobile service providers worldwide, covering a number of key performance indicators, including both subscriber and technology adoption.

This industry leading research guide to the 5G market charts the anticipated opportunities in the emerging sector, offering unrivalled insights and a full suite of market data for 2020-2025. The research also provides a comprehensive update on 4G LTE evolution, providing market updates and forecasts for 2015-2020.

Key Features

  • Investigates 5G spectrum strategies including requirements, availability and cost analysis.
  • Examines 5G technology requirements and future business models and use cases.
  • Current market analysis with key insights from leading stakeholders including:
    • 5G Innovation Centre
    • Anite Telecoms
    • CBNL (Cambridge Broadband Networks Limited)
    • EE
    • Ericsson
    • GSMA
    • Nokia Networks
    • Ofcom
    • Orange
    • Qualcomm
    • Ruckus Wireless
    • Samsung Networks
  • Systematic evaluation of 5G adoption, service pricing, ARPC (Average Revenue Per Connection) and operator billed revenues.
  • Comprehensive market projections for the size and growth of the 4G LTE market, split by Segment (Enterprise & Consumer), Technology (TD-LTE & FD-LTE) and 8 key regions.
  • Assessment of operator market status, trials and network deployments.
  • Strategic recommendations for vendors and mobile operators.

Key Questions

  • 1. How is the 4G ecosystem evolving towards 5G?
  • 2. What is the current status of 5G? When and where will first commercial 5G services be rolled out?
  • 3. Will 5G networks require new spectrum allocation?
  • 4. How will 5G deployments influence operator business models and service revenue?
  • 5. How will ARPU/ARPC evolve over the next 5-10 years?

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: 5G Innovation Centre, Anite Telecoms, CBNL, EE, Ericsson, GSMA, Nokia Networks, OfCom, Orange, Qualcomm, Ruckus Wireless, Samsung Networks

Case Studied: EE, 5G Innovation Centre, GSMA, LTE-U Forum, METIS, NTT DOCOMO

Profiled: Airvana, Alcatel-Lucent, Anite Telecoms, CBNL, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, NEC, Nokia Networks, Qualcomm, Samsung Networks, ZTE

Mentioned: 3 Italia, 3GPP, ABB, Adara Venture Partners, Aircom, Airtel, Alcatel-Lucent, Alliance Corporation, Amadeus Capital Partners, America Movil, Anite Telecoms, AT&T, ATOS, Avantel, Bell Labs, Bharti Airtel, Boliden, BT, Carnegie Mellon University, China Mobile, China Unicom, Cobham, ConVergence Technologies, Cosmote, Deutsche Telekom, Dresden University of Technology, DT, Du, EE, Ericsson, Etisalat, ETSI, FCC, Genband, Google, GSA, GSMA, HEFCE, Hitachi, Huawei, Hutchison, Idea Cellular, Imperial College London, Intel, ITU, ITU-R, KDDI, Kings College London, KNP, KPN, KT, LG U+, METIS, Mitsubishi Electric, Mobile TeleSystems, Mobily, MTN, MTS , Sistema, NEC, Netflix, New York University Wireless, Nex-Tech Wireless, NGMN Alliance, Nokia, NTT Comunications, NTT DOCOMO, Ofcom, ONF, Ooredoo, Orange, Qualcomm, Reliance, Rohde & Schwarz, Samsung, SICS, SK Telecom, Small Cell Forum, Softbank, Sprint, STC, Sumitomo, Swan, Taqua Systems, Telecom Italia, Telefonica O2, Telenor, TeliSonera, Telkomsel, Three UK, T-Mobile US, TVM Capital, Ucell, University of Surrey, Verizon, Vimpelcom, Vodacom, Vodafone, Vodafone Italy, VoLTE, Volvo, Wind, Winncom, Zain, ZTE

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper Research's highly granular interactive excels enable clients to manipulate Juniper's forecast data and charts to test their own assumptions using the Interactive Scenario Tool; and compare select markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase clients' ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

Forecast suite includes:

  • Country level data splits for:
    • Canada
    • China
    • Germany
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • UK
    • US
  • Segment split by Enterprise & Consumer.
  • Active 5G Connections, ARPC (Average Revenue Per Connection), and Operator Billed Revenues.
  • Active 4G Connections, ARPU, and Operator Billed Revenues.
  • 4G TD-LTE and FD-LTE active connections.
  • A ‘What-If' Analysis tool that allows users to test their own assumptions by manipulating Juniper data for 12 different metrics.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of nearly 50 tables and over 5,200 datapoints.

Table of Contents

1. Market Trends & Competitive Landscape

1. LTE Evolution & Road to 5G

  • 1.1. Introduction
    • Figure 1.1: Cellular Network Evolution Snapshot
  • 1.2. Defining 4G
    • 1.2.1. LTE & LTE-A
    • 1.2.2. Evolution towards LTE-U & LAA
      • Figure 1.2: LTE-U Commercialisation
      • i. LTE-U Deployments
      • ii. Case Study: LTE-U Forum
  • 1.3. 4G LTE Market Status
    • Figure 1.3: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches 2009-2015e
    • 1.3.1. LTE-M
  • 1.4. 4G LTE-A Market Update
    • Figure 1.4: Number of Commercial LTE-A Network Launches 2014-2016e
  • 1.5. LTE-U Market Update
    • i. LTE-U Future & Challenges

2. Defining the 5G Wireless Ecosystem

  • 2.1. Introduction
    • 2.1.1. Definition - What is 5G?
      • Figure 2.1: Timeline & Process for 5G IMT-2020
    • 2.1.2. ITU Plan, Timeline & Deliverables for 5G
  • 2.2. 5G Technology Requirements
    • Figure 2.2: 5G Requirements - A Snapshot
    • 2.2.1. The 5G Standard - Key Requisites
      • Figure 2.3: Key 5G Performance Requirements
    • 2.2.2. 5G Spectrum Requirements
      • Figure 2.4: Radio Frequency Bands Snapshot
        • i. Available 4G Spectrum and Possible 5G Spectrum Analysis
      • Figure 2.5: 4G Spectrum Bands Used by Commercially Launched Networks, 2014
      • Figure 2.6: Possible 5G Spectrum Frequency Bands
      • Figure 2.7: Preliminary Bands Identified by Ofcom
        • iii. High Frequency Spectrum Band Challenges
      • Figure 2.8: mmWave Frequency Band Challenges - Intel
        • vi. Spectrum Refarming
        • vii. Spectrum Sharing
    • 2.2.3. High Frequency Band 5G Spectrum Auction Cost Analysis
      • i. 4G Spectrum Cost Analysis
        • Figure 2.9: 4G Spectrum Auction Cost Analysis - Selected Markets
      • ii. 5G Spectrum Cost Analysis
        • Figure & Table 2.10: Spectrum Cost Estimate & Comparison - 4G vs 5G
        • Figure 2.11: 5G Cumulative Operator Billed Revenue per Annum ($m) vs Combined Spectrum Cost ($m) Comparison - US, West Europe, & South Korea)
    • 2.2.4. 5G Technology Requirements
      • ii. Case Study: METIS
      • iv. Case Study: NTT DOCOMO Phantom Cell
        • Figure 2.12: NTT DOCOMO 5G Vision
  • 2.3. 5G Business Models
    • 2.3.1. 5G & the Rise of the Internet of Things
      • Figure 2.13: Juniper Strategy Quadrant: 5G & the Internet of Things
    • 2.3.2. Monetising 5G: ARPU vs ARPC
    • 2.3.3. 5G to Replace DSL, Cable and Fibre?
  • 2.4. 5G Research & Development Investments 2015-2020
    • Figure 2.14: Total 5G Research & Development Investments ($m), 2015KKKKK & 2020

3. Market Dynamics: Drivers, Hurdles & Current Activities

  • 3.1. Current Market Status
    • 3.1.1. Regulators & Standards Bodies
      • i. ITU (International Telecommunications Union)
      • ii. Ofcom
      • iii. FCC (Federal Communications Commission)
      • iv. Case Study: GSMA (Groupe Speciale Mobile Association)
    • 3.1.2. Mobile Operators & Service Providers
      • i. NTT DOCOMO
      • ii. SK Telecom
      • iii. Case Study: EE
      • iv. Vodafone
      • v. du
    • 3.1.3. Vendors
      • i. Samsung
      • ii. Nokia Networks
      • iii. Huawei
      • iv. Ericsson
    • 3.1.4. Academic Institutions
      • i. New York University Wireless
      • ii. Case Study: 5G Innovation Centre
      • iii. TU Dresden University, 5G Lab Germany
  • 3.2. Market Drivers
    • Figure 3.1: 5G - Cycle of Demand
    • Figure 3.2: Mobile Data Growth Drivers (Y-o-Y % Growth) 2013-2014
    • Figure 3.3: Data Growth Factors
    • Figure 3.4: Number of Connected IoT Devices Installed Base (m) 2015-2020
  • 3.3. Market Constraints
    • Figure 3.5: 5G Technology Drivers Snapshot
    • Figure 3.6: Global MNO Service Revenues vs Capex/Opex ($bn) 2013-2019
    • 3.3.7. Market Drivers, Trends & Constraints Summary
      • Figure 3.7: 5G Market Trends, Drivers & Constraints Summary

4. Competitive Landscape & Vendor Analysis

  • 4.1. Introduction
  • 4.2. Vendor Analysis
    • 4.2.1. Vendor Assessment Criteria
      • Table 4.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors
    • 4.2.2. Limitations and Interpretation
  • 4.3. Vendor Positioning Matrix Results
    • 4.3.1. Overall Matrix Position
      • Figure 4.2: 4G & 5G Market Vendor Positioning Matrix
      • Figure 4.3: 4G & 5G Vendor Positioning Matrix Scoring
    • 4.3.2. Vendor Groupings
      • i. Summary
      • ii. On Track Vendors
      • iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
      • iv. Vendors with Further Potential
  • 4.4. 5G Industry Movers & Shakers
  • 4.5. Player Profiles
    • 4.5.1. Airvana
      • i. Company Profile
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
        • Figure 4.4: Airvana's Femtocell AP
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.2. Alcatel-Lucent
      • i. Corporate
        • Figure 4.5: Alcatel-Lucent Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
        • Figure 4.6: Alcatel-Lucent 4G-5G Vision
    • 4.5.3. Anite Telecoms
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.4. CBNL
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.5. Ericsson
      • i. Corporate
        • Figure 4.7: Ericsson Financial Year Snapshot (SEK bn) 2013-2014
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
        • Figure 4.8: Ericsson Regional Financial Performance (%) - 2014
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
        • Figure 4.9: Ericsson 3xMulti Radio Network Solution
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.6. Fujitsu
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
        • Figure 4.10: Fujitsu Financial Performance 2012-2014KKKKK - Snapshot
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.7. Huawei
      • i. Corporate
        • Figure 4.11: Huawei Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014
      • ii. Geographical Spread
        • Figure 4.12: Huawei Geographical Revenue Split (%) - 2014
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.8. NEC
      • i. Corporate
        • Figure 4.13: NEC Financial Snapshot 2013-2014
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
        • Figure 4.14: NEC LTE Small Cell Product Portfolio
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.9. Nokia Networks
      • i. Corporate
        • Figure 4.15: Nokia Networks Financial Performance Snapshot 2013-2014
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners
        • Figure 4.16: Nokia Networks Net Sales by Region - 2014
      • iv. Products & Services
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities
    • 4.5.10. Qualcomm
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
        • Figure 4.17: Qualcomm Sales Revenue ($m) 2012-2014
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Strategies
        • Figure 4.18: Qualcomm LTE FDD/TDD Chipsets
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strength & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.11. Samsung Networks
      • i. Corporate
        • Figure 4.19: Samsung Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Strategies - Market Positioning
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strength & Strategic Development Opportunities
    • 4.5.12. ZTE
      • i. Corporate
      • ii. Geographic Spread
      • iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning
        • Figure 4.20: Proposed Evolution to 5G - ZTE
      • v. Juniper's View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities

2. Market Sizing & Forecasts

1. LTE Evolution & Road to 5G

  • 1.1. Introduction
    • Figure 1.1: Cellular Network Evolution Snapshot
  • 1.2. Defining 4G
    • 1.2.1. LTE & LTE-A
    • 1.2.2. Evolution towards LTE-U
      • Figure 1.2: LTE-U Commercialisation
      • i. LTE-U Deployments
    • 1.2.3. Introduction
      • Figure 1.3: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches 2009-2015e
  • 1.3. 4G LTE-A Market Update
    • 1.3.1. Introduction
      • Figure 1.4: Number of Commercial LTE-A Network Launches 2014-2016e
  • 1.4. LTE-U Market Update
    • 1.4.1. Introduction
    • 1.4.2. Definition - What is 5G?
      • Figure 1.5: Timeline & Process for 5G IMT-2020
    • 1.4.3. ITU Plan, Timeline & Deliverables for 5G

2. 4G & 5G Market Sizing Methodology & Assumptions

  • 2.1. Introduction
  • 2.2. Methodology and Assumptions
    • Figure 2.1: 4G & 5G Market Forecast Methodology Overview

3. 5G Market Forecasts & Takeaways

  • 3.1. Cellular Market Growth 2020-2025
    • Figure 3.1: Mobile Active SIM Connection Base (m) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2020-2025
  • 3.2. 5G Connection Forecasts
    • 3.2.1. 5G Adoption Forecasts
      • Figure 3.2: Active 5G Connections as a Proportion of Active SIM Connections (%) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2020-2025
    • 3.2.2. 5G Active Connections
      • Figure 3.3: Number of Active 5G Mobile Connections (m) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2020-2025
    • 3.2.3. Regional 5G Adoption Analysis
      • i. North America
      • ii. Europe
      • iii. Far East & China
    • 3.2.4. 5G Enterprise & Consumer Connections
      • Figure 3.4: Global 5G Enterprise and Consumer Connections (m) 2014-2019
  • 3.3. 5G ARPC & Service Revenue
    • 3.3.1. 5G Blended ARPC
      • Figure 3.5: Blended Enterprise & Consumer 5G ARPC Forecast ($) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2020-2025
    • 3.3.2. 5G Service Revenue
      • Figure 3.6: 5G Service Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2015-2020

4. 4G Market Forecasts & Key Takeaways

  • 4.1. Cellular Market Growth 2015-2020
    • Figure 4.1: Mobile Active SIM Connection Base (m) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2015-2020
  • 4.2. 4G LTE Connection Forecasts
    • Figure 4.2: Number of 4G LTE Connections (m) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions
    • 4.2.1. Enterprise & Consumer Connections
      • Figure 4.3: Global 4G LTE Enterprise and Consumer Connections (m) 2015-2020
    • 4.2.2. TD-LTE & FDD-LTE Market Forecasts
      • Figure 4.4: Number of 4G LTE Connections (m) Split by TD-LTE & FD-LTE 2015-2020
  • 4.3. 4G LTE ARPU & Service Revenue Forecasts
    • 4.3.1. 4G LTE Blended ARPU
      • Figure 4.5: Blended Enterprise & Consumer LTE ARPU Forecast ($) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2015-2020
    • 4.3.2. 4G LTE Service Revenue
      • Figure 4.6: 4G LTE Service Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2015-2020
  • 4.4. 4G LTE Device & Infrastructure Forecasts
    • 4.4.1. 4G LTE Smartphones
      • Figure 4.7: 4G LTE Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8KKKKK Key Regions 2015-2020
    • 4.4.2. 4G LTE Base Station Forecasts
      • Figure 4.8: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by Macro & Compact BTS
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