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4G LTE Strategies: Subscribers, Devices, Infrastructure & Service Revenue 2013-2017

Abstract

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Overview

  • Over 40 Pages of Forecasts
  • Active LTE subscriber forecasts
  • Spectrum Strategies & Cost Analysis
  • LTE Market Update by Region


A fully comprehensive guide to the 4G LTE market, this fourth edition of Juniper-s report charts the immediate and anticipated opportunities in the LTE market, providing a strategic evaluation of the LTE business models for revenue generation. The report includes an updated set of forecasts, ecosystem breakdown, key market drivers & hurdles along with spectrum strategies and technology analysis.

What this Report Covers?

Vendor Matrix - Covering 8 Key Players

Readers can learn from expert analysis and strategic recommendations supported by interviews with, and commentaries from, key players in the ecosystem drawn together in a vendor matrix. Fifteen LTE commercially launched networks drawn from eight key regions are profiled and assessed by their various stages of development within the 4G industry.

Detailed Investigation of Drivers and Constraints

The key market drivers and constraints are discussed in addition to an assessment of operator deployments over the past 12 months i.e. trial, commercial and planned networks.

Spectrum Strategies

An in-depth analysis of spectrum selection and operator strategies is provided alongside an exhaustive deliberation of the cost challenges confronting MNOs, with an extensive spectrum cost analysis on Western Europe.

Service Revenues and Price analysis

Readers will receive a systematic evaluation of service pricing, blended ARPU and billed revenues, calculated for both the enterprise and consumer market.

Market Forecasts

The updated forecasts are split by 8 key regions as well as by consumer and enterprise markets. They include:

  • Active LTE subscriber forecasts (split by technology - TD-LTE & FD-LTE)
  • Connected chipset & end user device market
  • Base station markets (split by compact and macro base station)

Country level forecasts for Canada, US, Germany, UK, Japan, South Korea and India are available in the Interactive Forecast Excel.

Companies Referenced

Case Studies and Companies Profiled: Verizon Wireless, AT&T Mobility, América Móvil, Telefonica, Teliasonera, EE, Telecom Italia, FT Orange, Yota, NTT DOCOMO, China Mobile, SingTel, Ericsson, Etisalat, Fujitsu, MTS, Ucell, Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, ZTE, Samsung

Companies Discussed: 3 Italia, 3G FOMA, 4DK Technologies Inc, A1, Aero2, Agri-Valley, Aircel, Al Madar, Alcatel Lucent, Altair Semiconductor, Alvarion, América Móvil, Apple, ARCEP (French Regulator), ARPU, Asus, AT&T, Atlantic, Audi, Augere, Azerfon, BBC, BelgaCom, Bell Canada, Bharti Airtel, BITE, BSNL, BT, Buzz Media, Buzznet, C Spire Wireless, Cell C, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, chumby, Claro, Clearwire, Connect2Media, Cota Spain, Danish National and IT Agency, Deutsche Telekom, Dialog Broadband Networks (DBN), dimedis, Dish, DNA, Du, eAccess, EE, Elisa, E-Plus, Ericsson, Etisalat, Face.com, Facebook, FISHLABS, France Telecom Orange, Fujitsu, Technology Solutions, Game Streamer, Gate, Gemalto, Global Holding Corporation, Globe Telecom, GSA (Global Mobile Suppliers Association), H3G, HP (Hewlett Packard), Hrvatski Telekom Croatia, HTC, Huawei , Hutchison 3, Infotel Broadband Services, Intamac, ISP (Internet Service Provider), ITU, Kabillion, KDDI Japan, King Street Wireless, Korea Telecom, KPN, Kyocera, LearningMate, LGU+ , LightSquared, LMT, M1, MACH, Maxis, Media Tile, MegaFon, MetroPCS, Mobily, Mobyland Poland, Mosaic Telecom, Movicel Angola, Movistar, MTN, MTNL , MTS, NBN (National Broadband Network), NEC, Net4Mobility, NetAmerica Alliance, Nokia Siemens, NSN - Nokia Siemens Network, NTT DOCOMO, O2 (Telefónica UK), Ofcom, Omnitel, Open Mobile, Optimus, Optus, Orange, PCCW, Polkomtel, Portugal Telecom, PTS, Qualcomm, Rebel Vox, Reliance India, RIL (Reliance Industries Limited), Rogers Wireless, Rostelcom, Samsung, SFR, Shaw Communications, Si.mobil, SIGNEXX, SingTel, SK Telecom, Smart, Smartone Hong Kong, SoftBank Japan, Sprint, Starent Networks. , StarHub, STC, Telcel, Tele2, Telecom Germany, Telecom Italia, Telecom New Zealand, Telefonica, Telekom Austria Group's, Telekom Slovenije, Telenor, Telesis Tanzania, TeliaSonera, Telkomsel, Telstra, Telus Canada, Three UK, Tikona Digital Networks Pvt. Ltd, TIM, T-Mobile, Toshiba, Total Immersion, Tulip Telecom, TuneWiki, Twitter, U Mobile, U.S. Cellular, Ucell, UNE, Verizon Wireless, VimpelCom, Vipnet, Vivo, Vodafone, Wind, Words & Numbers, Yota Russia, Zain Bahrain, Zain KSA, ZTE Corporation

Extra Info

8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • 1 Introduction to the LTE Market
  • 1.1 LTE and LTE Advanced Objectives
  • 1.2 LTE Advanced Market Update
  • 1.3 LTE Market Ecosystem
    • Figure 1.1: LTE Ecosystem
    • 1.3.1 Equipment Manufacturers & Suppliers
    • Table 1.1: Equipment Manufacture and Suppliers Industry Commercial Contracts
    • 1.3.2 End User Device Vendors
    • Figure 1.2: Available LTE User Device Products (November 2012)
    • i. Smartphones: Apple and Samsung
    • Figure 1.3: Apple iPhone 5
    • ii. Femtocell: DOCOMO
    • Figure 1.4: NTT DOCOMO Dual Mode 3G/LTE Femtocell
    • 1.3.3 Service/Application Providers
    • 1.3.4 Mobile Network Operators
  • 1.4 Spectrum for LTE Deployments
    • 1.4.1 Available LTE Spectrum
    • Figure 1.5: LTE Spectrum Bands
    • Table 1.2: LTE FDD and TDD Spectrum Bands
    • Table 1.3: Global LTE Spectrum Band Availability for Mobile Operators
    • 1.4.2 Spectrum Refarming

2 4G LTE Market Status

  • Figure 2.1: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches
  • 2.1 North America
    • 2.1.1 Verizon Wireless: USA
    • Figure 2.2: Verizon Wireless USA 4G Market Map
    • 2.1.2 AT&T Mobility
    • Figure 2.3: AT&T LTE Coverage Map
  • 2.2 Latin America
    • 2.2.1 América Móvil
    • 2.2.2 Telefonica Latin America
  • 2.3 Western Europe
    • 2.3.1 TeliaSonera Norway & Sweden
    • 2.3.2 EE UK
    • 2.3.3 Telecom Italia
    • 2.3.4 France Telecom Orange
    • Figure 2.4: France Telecom Orange LTE Deployment Timeline
  • 2.4 Central & Eastern Europe
    • 2.4.1 Yota Russia
  • 2.5 Far East & China
    • 2.5.1 NTT DOCOMO Japan
    • 2.5.2 China Mobile
  • 2.6 Indian Subcontinent
  • 2.7 Rest of Asia Pacific
    • 2.7.1 SingTel Singapore
  • 2.8 Africa & Middle East
    • 2.8.1 Etisalat UAE
    • 2.8.2 MTS and Ucell Uzbekistan
  • 2.9 Analysis and Conclusion
    • 2.9.1 LTE Network Commitments to Date
    • Figure 2.5: LTE Network Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (Number of MNOs) January 2013
    • Table 2.1: LTE Network Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (Number of MNOs) January 2013
    • 2.9.2 Spectrum Availability & Cost Analysis
    • i. Spectrum Costs
    • ii. Analysis: Western Europe
    • Table 2.2: Western Europe Spectrum Band Auction as at December 2012

3 Market Drivers & Hurdles

  • 3.1 LTE Market Drivers
    • 3.1.1 The 'Stay Connected' Trend
    • 3.1.2 Widespread Industry Support
    • 3.1.3 Mobile Data Traffic Growth
    • 3.1.4 Decline of ARPU
    • Figure 3.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2012 2017
    • Table 3.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2012 2017
    • 3.1.5 New Service and Revenue Opportunities
    • Table 3.2: LTE New Services - Juniper Research Interview Responses
    • 3.1.6 New Connected Devices
    • 3.1.7 Improved User Experience & Seamless Connectivity
    • 3.1.8 Technical Advantages
  • 3.2 The Hurdles Facing LTE
    • 3.2.1 Right Economics to Encourage Service Usage at a Value
    • 3.2.2 Devices: Availability & Growing Diversity
    • i. Device Availability
    • ii. Growing Diversity and Device Challenge
    • Figure 3.2: iPad WiFi & 4G Model in Australia
    • 3.2.3 Lack of Voice Support
    • 3.2.4 Spectrum: When and How Much?
    • 3.2.5 Backhaul Capacity Requirements

4 LTE Subscriber, Device & Infrastructure Forecasts

  • 4.1 Methodology and Assumptions
    • Figure 4.1: LTE Market Forecast Methodology
  • 4.2 Cellular Market Growth
    • Figure 4.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 4.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
      • 4.3 4G LTE Subscriber Forecasts
    • 4.3.1 Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
    • Figure 4.3: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 4.2: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • 4.3.2 Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers
    • Figure 4.4: Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.3: Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2012 2017
  • 4.4 LTE Market Forecasts: Network Access Devices and Chipsets
    • 4.4.1 Future of the SIM Card
    • 4.4.2 LTE Network Access Forecast: Enterprise Subscribers
    • Figure 4.5: LTE Enterprise Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.4: LTE Enterprise Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • 4.4.3 LTE Network Access Forecast: Consumer Subscribers
    • Figure 4.6: LTE Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.5: LTE Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • 4.4.4 LTE Network Access Forecast: Enterprise & Consumer Subscribers
    • Figure 4.7 LTE Enterprise & Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.6: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
  • 4.5 LTE Chipsets Forecast
    • 4.5.1 LTE Chipset Availability
    • 4.5.2 LTE Chipset Annual Shipment Forecast
    • Figure 4.8: Chipset Shipment Churn Assumption Curve
    • Figure 4.9: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipments (m pa) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.7: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipments (m pa) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Figure 4.10: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipment Forecast Mix (%) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.8: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipment Forecast Mix (%) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • 4.5.3 LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast
    • Figure 4.11: LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast ($) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.9: LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast ($) 2012 2017
    • 4.5.4 LTE Chipset Market Revenue Forecast
    • Figure 4.12: LTE Chipset Revenues ($m pa) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.10: LTE Chipset Revenues ($m pa) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
  • 4.6 Device Types
    • 4.6.1 Forecast Devices Defined
    • Figure 4.13: LTE Device Introduction Timeline
    • 4.6.2 New Connected Devices
    • 4.6.3 Enterprise End User Devices
    • Figure 4.14: Connected LTE Enabled Enterprise End User Devices (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.11: Connected LTE Enabled Enterprise End User Devices (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • 4.6.4 Consumer End User Devices
    • Figure 4.15: Connected LTE Enabled Consumer End User Devices (m) Split by Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.12: Connected LTE Enabled Consumer End User Devices (m) Split by Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
    • 4.6.5 Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices
    • Figure 4.16: Connected LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.13: Connected LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
    • 4.6.6 LTE Enterprise End User Device Shipments
    • Figure 4.17: LTE Enterprise End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.14: LTE Enterprise End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers & Femtocells) 2012 2017
    • 4.6.7 LTE Consumer End User Shipments
    • Figure 4.18: LTE Consumer End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.15: LTE Consumer End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
    • 4.6.8 LTE Enterprise and Consumer End User Shipments
    • Figure 4.19: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
    • Table 4.16: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
  • 4.7 LTE Base Station Forecast
    • 4.7.1 LTE Base Station Deployments
    • Figure 4.20: Total Number of LTE Enabled Base Stations Deployed (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 4.17: Total Number of LTE Enabled Base Stations Deployed (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • 4.7.2 LTE Base Station Shipments
    • Figure 4.21: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 4.18: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Figure 4.22: LTE Enabled Macro Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 4.19: LTE Enabled Macro Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Figure 4.23: LTE Enabled Compact-Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 4.20: LTE Enabled Compact-Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • 4.7.3 Base Station Service Revenue
    • Figure 4.24: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Service Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 4.21: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Service Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017

5 LTE Service Revenue Forecasts

  • 5.1 Pricing Assumptions and Limitations
  • 5.2 LTE User Service Pricing
    • 5.2.1 LTE Enterprise Pricing
    • Figure 5.1: LTE Enterprise Average Service Pricing ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 5.1: LTE Enterprise Average Service Pricing ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • 5.2.2 LTE Consumer Pricing
    • Figure 5.2: LTE Consumer Average Service Pricing ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 5.2: LTE Consumer Average Service Pricing ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
  • 5.3 Service Revenues
    • 5.3.1 Enterprise Revenues
    • Figure 5.3: LTE Enterprise Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 5.3: LTE Enterprise Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • 5.3.2 Consumer Revenues
    • Figure 5.4: LTE Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 5.4: LTE Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • 5.3.3 Enterprise and Consumer Revenues
    • Figure 5.5: LTE Enterprise & Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 5.5: LTE Enterprise & Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Figure 5.6: Global Revenue Forecast (% share) Split by LTE Enterprise and Consumer 2012 2017
    • Table 5.6: Global Revenue Forecast (% share) Split by LTE Enterprise and Consumer 2012 2017
    • Figure 5.7: LTE Service Revenue as a Proportion of Global Operator Billed Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 5.7: LTE Service Revenue as a Proportion of Global Operator Billed Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
  • 5.4 Blended ARPU
    • Figure 5.8: Blended Enterprise & Consumer LTE ARPU Forecast ($)Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
    • Table 5.8: Blended Enterprise & Consumer LTE ARPU Forecast ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017

6 LTE Network Vendor Strategies

  • 6.1 Vendor Analysis
    • 6.1.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria
    • Table 6.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors
    • 6.1.2 Limitations and Interpretation
  • 6.2 Vendor Positioning Matrix Results
    • 6.2.1 Overall Matrix Position
    • Figure 6.1: Global LTE Network Vendor Positioning Matrix
    • 6.2.2 Vendor Groupings
    • i. Summary
    • ii. On Track Vendors
    • iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
    • 6.2.3 Competitive Dynamics
  • 6.3 Alcatel Lucent
    • Figure 6.2: Alcatel Lucent LTE Solution
    • Figure 6.3: Alcatel Lucent ng Connect Program
  • 6.4 Ericsson
    • Figure 6.4: Ericsson LTE/EPC Contracts
    • Figure 6.5: Ericsson Strategy & Progress 2010-2012
  • 6.5 Fujitsu
    • Figure 6.6: Fujitsu Revenue Split by Segments: 2011-2012
    • Figure 6.7: Fujitsu LTE System
  • 6.6 Huawei
    • Figure 6.8: Huawei Revenue Split by Segment 2011-2012
    • Figure 6.9: Huawei e2e LTE Solution
    • Figure 6.10: Huawei DBS3900 Series
  • 6.7 NEC
    • Figure 6.11: NEC Revenue Split by Segment 2011-2012
    • Figure 6.12: NEC LTE Solution
  • 6.8 Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN)
    • Figure 6.13: Nokia Revenue Split by Service Segments 2012
    • Table 6.2: NSN LTE Commercial Network Deals
    • Figure 6.14: Nokia Siemens Networks LTE Solution
  • 6.9 ZTE
    • Figure 6.15: ZTE Revenue Split by Service Segments: 2011-2012
    • Figure 6.16: ZTE Uni-RAN Solution
  • 6.10 Samsung
    • Figure 6.17: Samsung Revenue Split by Service Segments: 2011-2012

7 LTE Technologies Primer

  • 7.1 Duplexing Techniques
    • 7.1.1 FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing)
    • Figure 7.1: Frequency Division Duplexing
    • 7.1.2 TDD (Time Division Duplexing)
    • Figure 7.2: Time Division Duplexing
    • Figure 7.3: TDD LTE Spectrum Bands
    • Figure 7.4: FDD and TDD Comparison
  • 7.2 LTE (Long Term Evolution)
    • 7.2.1 3GPP Release 8: LTE & SAE
    • Figure 7.5: LTE Overview
    • Figure 7.6: LTE Release 8 Standardisation History
    • 7.2.2 TD-LTE
  • 7.3 3GPP Release 10: LTE Advanced
    • Figure 7.7: LTE Advanced System Performance Requirements
  • 7.4 Technology Comparison
    • Table 7.1: Key Mobile Broadband Technology Parameter Comparisons
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