Mobile Content Strategies & Business Models Scenarios & Forecasts 2008-2013

Published by	Juniper Research
Published	December, 2008	Product code	77637
Content info	179 pages
Price	US $ 2620 Hard Copy US $ 2620 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) US $ 3750 PDF by E-Mail (Multi User Network License (2-5 Users) US $ 5620 PDF by E-Mail (Enterprise Wide License)

Introduction
Related Reports

Mobile Content Strategies & Business Models Scenarios & Forecasts 2008-2013 published by Juniper Research in December, 2008. This report consists of 179 pages and the price starts from US $ 2620.

Introduction

Abstract

Overview

This second edition strategic report investigates the current and future market opportunity for mobile content dissemination in three key scenarios; Smart Pipe, Dump Pipe and On-Portal and provides six year forecasts for eight key regions under each scenario.

For the Smart Pipe scenario it discusses how the network operators will benefit from increased levels of traffic and how third parties and billing service providers will have a much smaller part to play. For the Dumb Pipe scenario the report considers the impact of effectively all retail revenue from mobile content going to the content provider. For the On-Portal scenario, the report discusses the operators gaining all mobile content revenues, but also having to shoulder all costs for content acquisition, marketing/placement and billing.

Crucially, this report considers Apple' s ' Apps store' model and sets this in context with the three scenarios discussing the various drivers and constraints as well as provides forecasting up until 2013 from the most recent ARPU figures available, split by voice and data.

Key questions the report answers:

What are the constraints placed on mobile content uptake/usage at present?
Why are MNOs not adequately promoting availability/usage of mobile content on their networks?
What is the global mobile content market worth and how will it grow over the next five years?
Which business models will help all players maximise their returns on mobile content provision?
What is the Dumb Pipe and why should MNOs strive to move away from this situation?
What is the Smart Pipe and why should MNOs want to become Smart Pipes?

Glossary

Executive Summary

Introduction
Complexity of Delivering Content-based Services Is Growing
Mobile Content Business Models
Mobile Content Revenue/Profit Models
Scenarios for Mobile Content Revenues
Forecasts
Recommendations for Mobile Content Players

1. Mobile Content Value Configurations

1.1 The Mobile Content Value Chain
- 1.1.1 Defining the Mobile Content Value Chain
  - Figure 1.1: The Mobile Content Value Chain
- 1.1.2 A Linear Approach to Delivery is Inadequate
  - i. Disaggregation Creates Value Networks
  - ii. From Value Networks to User-Centric Value Configurations
    - Figure 1.2: User-Centric Value Configuration Example
  - iii. Value Configurations will be Application-Centric
  - iv. Key Functions within Value Configuration
1.2 Key Success Elements for Value Configurations
- 1.2.1 Roles and Responsibilities
- 1.2.2 Partnership Management
- 1.2.3 Interoperability
1.3 Mobile Content Players
- 1.3.1 Types of Mobile Content Player
- 1.3.2 Customer Ownership
1.4 Value: Contradictory Views
- Figure 1.3: The Reduced-Value Conundrum
1.5 MNOs Unable to Follow Consumption Patterns

2. Mobile Content Business Models

2.1 Business Model Fundamentals
- 2.1.1 A New Approach
2.2 Business Models: The Basics
- 2.2.1 Brokerage
- 2.2.2 Infomediary
- 2.2.3 Merchant
- 2.2.4 Direct-to-Consumer
- 2.2.5 Outsourcing
- 2.2.6 Advertising
2.3 Wholesale Business Models
- 2.3.1 Wholesale Helps Fixed Revenues Grow - What About Mobile?
- 2.3.2 Reversing Mobile Revenue Decline
- 2.3.3 Value-Added Wholesale Can Help
- 2.3.4 Three Types of Value-Added Wholesale Services

3. Mobile Content Revenue/Profit Models

3.1 Revenue Models
- 3.1.1 Usage-Based Charging
  - i. Apple App Store Breaks The Mould
- 3.1.2 ARPU as a Measure of Value
- 3.1.3 A New Revenue Model is Needed
- 3.1.4 The Operator-Push Revenue Model
  - Figure 3.1: Operator-Push Revenue Model
- 3.1.5 The Wholesale Pull Revenue Model
  - Figure 3.2: Wholesale-Pull Revenue Model (MNOs)
3.2 Profit Models: An Overview
- 3.2.1 AMPU as a Measure of Margin
3.3 Retail Revenue/Profit Models
- 3.3.1 Multiple Approaches Can Work
- 3.3.2 Retail Mobile Content Charging Mechanisms
  - i. Flat-Rate Charging
  - ii. Event-Based Charging
    - Figure 3.3: Event-based Revenue Model
  - iii. On-Portal Charging
  - iv. Direct-to-Consumer Charging
3.4 Wholesale Revenue/Profit Models
- 3.4.1 The Role of Wholesale Mobile Content
- 3.4.2 New Wholesale Revenue Streams
  - i. Wholesale Mobile Content Service Layers
  - ii. The Wholesale Mobile Advertising Opportunity
  - iii. The Wholesale Mobile Search Opportunity
- 3.4.3 Wholesale Charging Mechanisms
- 3.4.4 Wholesale Revenue-Sharing
  - i. MNOs and Content Providers
  - ii. MNOs and Third Parties
  - iii. MNOs and End-Users
3.5 Apple, Nokia and Google Take a New Approach
- 3.5.1 Apple iPhone/Apple App Store
- 3.5.2 Nokia
  - i. N-Gage
  - ii. Nokia ‘Comes With Music'
- 3.5.3 Google/Android

4. Scenarios for Mobile Content Revenues

4.1 Future Scenarios and Player Types
- 4.1.1 Scenario 1: Dumb Pipe
  - Figure 4.1: Dumb Pipe Scenario Illustration, 2013
- 4.1.2 Scenario 2: Smart Pipe
  - Figure 4.2: Smart Pipe Scenario Illustration, 2013
- 4.1.3 Scenario 3: On-Portal
  - Figure 4.3: On-Portal Scenario Illustration, 2013

5. Cellular Market Growth

5.1 Introduction
5.2 Growth of the Cellular Market
- Figure 5.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2006-2013
- Table 5.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2006-2013
- Figure 5.2: Cellular Subscriber Base, Market Share (% ) by Region 2006-2013
- Figure 5.3: Cellular Subscribers Penetration (% ) by Region 2006-2013
- 5.2.2 Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base
  - Table 5.2: Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base (m) Q2 2008
- 5.2.3 Growth of 3G
  - Table 5.3: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
  - Figure 5.4: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
5.3 Regional Cellular Market Growth
- 5.3.1 North America
  - i. Mobile Phone Penetration
  - ii. US Market Structure
  - iii. 3G Adoption
    - Figure 5.5: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
    - Table 5.4: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
- 5.3.2 South America
  - i. Diverse Region
  - ii. Mobile Penetration Rates
  - iii. Dominant Technology
  - iv. Players in Region
    - Figure 5.6: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
  - v. 3G Deployments
    - Table 5.5: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
- 5.3.3 Western Europe
  - i. Mobile Penetration
    - Figure 5.7: Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
  - ii. Market Structure
  - iii. 3G Penetration
    - Table 5.6: Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
- 5.3.4 Eastern Europe
  - i. Mobile Penetration
    - Figure 5.8: Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
    - Table 5.7: Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
  - ii. 3G Penetration
- 5.3.5 Far East & China
  - i. Mobile Penetration
  - ii. 3G Services
    - Figure 5.9: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
    - Table 5.8: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
- 5.3.6 Indian Sub Continent
  - i. Mobile Penetration
    - Figure 5.10: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
  - ii. 3G Services
    - Table 5.9: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
- 5.3.7 Rest of Asia Pacific
  - i. Mobile Penetration
    - Figure 5.11: Rest of Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
  - ii. 3G Adoption
    - Table 5.10: Rest of Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
- 5.3.8 Africa & Middle East
  - i. Market Background
  - ii. Mobile Penetration
    - Figure 5.12: Africa & Middle East Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
  - iii. Players
  - iv. ARPU
    - Table 5.11: Africa & Middle East Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology (2G, 3G, 3.5G/3.9G) 2008-2013
  - v. 3G Adoption

6. Forecasts

6.1 Forecast Approach
- 6.1.1. What is Included ?
- 6.1.2. What is Excluded ?
  - i. Assumption
- 6.1.3 Methodology
- 6.1.4 Retail Revenue vs. Retained Revenue
6.2 Forecast Highlights
6.3 Mobile Content Subscriber Forecasts
- 6.3.1 ARPU per Subscriber
  - Table 6.1: Monthly ARPU per Subscriber, Split by Voice/Data by Region, 2008-2013
- 6.3.2 Global Cellular Subscriber Growth
6.4 Mobile Content Revenue Forecasts
- 6.4.1 Total Annual Data Revenues
  - Figure 6.1: Total Annual Data Revenues ($m) by Region 2008-2013
  - Table 6.2: Total Annual Data Revenues ($m) by Region 2008-2013
- 6.4.2 Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenues
  - Table 6.3: % Non Person-to-Person Messaging Mobile Data ARPU by Region 2008-2013
  - Figure 6.2: Non Person-to-Person Messaging Mobile Data Revenues ($m) by Region 2008-2013
  - Table 6.4: Non Person-to-Person Messaging Mobile Data Revenues ($m) by Region 2008-2013
  - Figure 6.3: Total Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenues (End-User Generated plus Adspend) ($m) by Region, 2008-2013
  - Table 6.5: Total Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenues (End-User Generated plus Adspend) ($m) by Region, 2008-2013
- 6.4.3 Forecasts by Scenario/Type of Player
  - i. Dumb Pipe Scenario
    - Table 6.6: Global Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, 2008-2013
  - ii. Smart Pipe Scenario
    - Table 6.7: Global Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, 2008-2013
  - iii. On-Portal Scenario
    - Table 6.8: Global Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, 2008-2013
- 6.4.4 Forecasts by Region
  - i. North America
    - Table 6.9: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, North America, 2008-2013
    - Table 6.10: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, North America, 2008-2013 80
    - a. Dumb Pipe
      - Figure 6.4: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, North America, 2008-2013
    - b. Smart Pipe 81
      - Figure 6.5: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, North America, 2008-2013
    - c. On-Portal 81
      - Figure 6.6: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, North America, 2008-2013
  - ii. South America
    - Table 6.11: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, South America 2008-2013
    - Table 6.12: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, South America, 2008-2013
    - a. Dumb Pipe
      - Figure 6.7: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, South America, 2008-2013
    - b. Smart Pipe 84
      - Figure 6.8: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, South America, 2008-2013
    - c. On-Portal 85
      - Figure 6.9: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, South America, 2008-2013
  - iii. Western Europe
    - Table 6.13: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, Western Europe, 2008-2013 86
    - Table 6.14: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Western Europe, 2008-2013 86
    - a. Dumb Pipe
      - Figure 6.10: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Western Europe, 2008-2013
    - b. Smart Pipe
      - Figure 6.11: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Western Europe, 2008-2013
    - c. On-Portal 88
      - Figure 6.12: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, Western Europe, 2008-2013
  - iv. Eastern Europe
    - Table 6.15: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, Eastern Europe, 2008-2013
    - Table 6.16: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Eastern Europe, 2008-2013
    - a. Dumb Pipe
      - Figure 6.13: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Eastern Europe, 2008-2013
    - b. Smart Pipe
      - Figure 6.14: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Eastern Europe, 2008-2013
    - c. On-Portal
      - Figure 6.15: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, Eastern Europe, 2008-2013
  - v. Far East and China
    - Table 6.17: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, Far East & China, 2008-2013
    - Table 6.18: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Far East & China, 2008-2013
    - a. Dumb Pipe
      - Figure 6.16: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Far East & China, 2008-2013
    - b. Smart Pipe
      - Figure 6.17: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Far East & China, 2008-2013
    - c. On-Portal
      - Figure 6.18: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, Far East & China, 2008-2013
  - vi. Indian Sub Continent
    - Table 6.19: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, Indian Sub Continent, 2008- 2013
    - Table 6.20: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Indian Sub Continent, 2008-2013
    - a. Dumb Pipe
      - Figure 6.19: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Indian Sub Continent, 2008-2013
    - b. Smart Pipe
      - Figure 6.20: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Indian Sub Continent, 2008-2013
    - c. On-Portal
      - Figure 6.21: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, Indian Sub Continent, 2008-2013
  - vii. Rest of Asia-Pacific
    - Table 6.21: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary, Rest of Asia-Pacific, 2008-2013
    - Table 6.22: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Rest of Asia-Pacific, 2008-2013
    - a. Dumb Pipe
      - Figure 6.22: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Rest of Asia-Pacific, 2008-2013
    - b. Smart Pipe
      - Figure 6.23: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Rest of Asia-Pacific, 2008-2013
    - c. On-Portal
      - Figure 6.24: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, Rest of Asia-Pacific, 2008-2013
  - viii. Africa & Middle East
    - Table 6.23: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, Africa & Middle East, 2008-2013
    - Table 6.24: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Africa & Middle East, 2008-2013
    - a. Dumb Pipe
      - Figure 6.25: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Africa & Middle East, 2008-2013
    - b. Smart Pipe
      - Figure 6.26: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Africa & Middle East, 2008-2013
    - c. On-Portal
      - Figure 6.27: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, Africa & Middle East, 2008-2013

7. Recommendations for Mobile Content Players

7.1 Overview of Strategic Approach Required
7.2 Recommendations for Mobile Network Operators
7.3 Recommendations for Content Providers
7.4 Recommendations for Third Parties

8. Case Studies

8.1 Blyk
- 8.1.1 Blyk Overview
- 8.1.2 The Blyk Model
- 8.1.3 Mobile Advertising
  - Table 8.1: Blyk Highlights Success of Mobile Advertising Model
- 8.1.4 Mobile Social Networking
8.2 Jump Tap
- 8.1.5 The Role of Wholesale
- 8.1.6 Revenue Models
- 8.2.1 JumpTap Overview
- 8.2.2 Business Models
- 8.2.3 Mobile Advertising Market Drivers
- 8.2.4 Wholesale
- 8.2.5 Revenue Models
8.3 mBlox
- 8.3.1 mBlox Overview
- 8.3.2 Mobile Content Revenue Models
- 8.3.3 Wholesale
  - Figure 8.1: mBlox Partner Relationship Model, 2008
- 8.3.4 Carrier Off-portal Revenues to Double in Three Years:mBlox
8.4 Valista
- 8.4.1 Valista Overview
- 8.4.2 Off-Portal Market
- 8.4.3 Wholesale Opportunities