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Market Research Report

Mobile Entertainment in a Recession Scenarios, Markets & Forecasts 2009-2013

Published by Juniper Research
Published March, 2009 Product code 83090
Content info 107 pages
Price
US $ 2540 Hard Copy
US $ 2540 PDF by E-mail (Single User License)
US $ 3630 PDF by E-Mail (Multi User Network License (2-5 Users)
US $ 5440 PDF by E-Mail (Enterprise Wide License)


Mobile Entertainment in a Recession Scenarios, Markets & Forecasts 2009-2013 published by Juniper Research in March, 2009. This report consists of 107 pages and the price starts from US $ 2540.

Introduction

Abstract

Overview

This report provides a unique scenario based analysis of the impact of the global economic recession on the various mobile entertainment sectors. For mobile TV, mobile games, mobile gambling, mobile adult and mobile UGC, this essential report focuses on the key market forces relevant to each sector as well as assessing the likely consequences, positive or negative, of the economic climate today.

Best cased scenarios for each mobile entertainment sector are split by eight key regions together with a top line global forecast based on medium and worst case downturn scenarios. The report also includes a discussion of which services are likely to generate the most revenues during the downturn.

An examination of the key mobile entertainment drivers such as improved handset UIs, is presented as well as an investigation into the major mobile entertainment constraints, such as cost of data services.

Key questions this mobile entertainment report answers:
  • Which mobile entertainment services will be most affected by the global economic downturn?
  • What are the prospects for mobile entertainment under the best and worst case scenarios?
  • What are the major constraints on the adoption and usage levels of mobile entertainment services?
  • Which mobile entertainment services will generate the most revenues over the next five years?
  • What are the main drivers behind mobile entertainment?
  • Who are the major players in mobile entertainment today?

Key Benefits:
  • A unique source of combined research & analysis for the mobile entertainment marketplace induding technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
  • Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities forvendors and operators.
  • Unique insight: interviews of leading players with significant experience of the mobile entertainment market.
  • Benefit from fresh thinking and intelligent market assessment.

Table of Contents

Glossary of Terms

Executive Summary

  • Introduction
  • Types of Mobile Entertainment
  • Mobile Entertainment: Revenue Opportunities and Economic Downturn Analysis
    • Best Case Scenario
      • Figure ES1: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Best Case Scenario by Product 2007-2013
      • Table ES1: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Product Forecast 2007-2013
    • Median Case Downturn Scenario
      • Figure ES2: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Median Case Downturn Scenario by Product 2007-2013
      • Table ES2: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Median Case Downturn Scenario by Product 2007-2013
    • Worst Case Scenario
      • Figure ES3 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Worst Case Scenario, By Product 2007-2013
      • Table ES3: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Worst Case Scenario by Product 2007-2013
  • Market Constraints
    • Table ES4: Hurdles to the Adoption of Mobile Entertainment Services
  • Future Mobile Awards
    • Table ES6: Future Mobile Award Winners - 2009

1. Mobile Entertainment Market Development

  • 1.1 Introduction
    • Figure 1.1 Mobile Entertainment Services: Time to Deployment
  • 1.2 Types of Mobile Entertainment Service
    • 1.2.1 Mobile Gambling
      • i. Casino Style Gambling
      • ii. Lotteries
      • iii. Sports Betting
      • iv. Betting Exchanges
    • Future Mobile Awards for Mobile Gambling
      • GOLD AWARD - mfuse
      • SILVER AWARD - Spin3
    • 1.2.2 Mobile Adult Content
      • i. Text-based Adult Services
      • ii. Images
      • iii. Moantones
      • iv. Erotic Games
      • v. Video-Based Services
    • Future Mobile Awards for Mobile Adult Services
      • GOLD AWARD - DisplayBoy
      • SILVER AWARD - Cherrysauce
    • 1.2.3 Mobile Games
      • Table 1.1: Games Genre and Examples (with Publisher)
      • i. Action Games
      • ii. Logic/Puzzle/Skill Games
      • iii. Sports and Racing Games
      • iv. Arcade Games
      • v. Role Playing Games
      • vi. Card and Casino Games
      • vii. Movie Games
      • viii. Adult Games
      • ix. Lifestyle Games
    • Future Mobile Awards for Mobile Games
      • GOLD AWARD - Apple
      • SILVER AWARD - Fishlabs
    • 1.2.4 Mobile Music
    • Future Mobile Awards for Mobile Music
      • GOLD AWARD - Apple
      • SILVER AWARD - Shazam
    • 1.2.5 Mobile TV
      • i. Mobile Streamed TV
      • ii. Mobile Broadcast TV
    • Future Mobile Awards for Mobile TV
      • GOLD AWARD - Telegent
      • SILVER AWARD - ROK TV
    • 1.2.6 Mobile User Generated Content
    • Future Mobile Awards for Mobile UGC Services
      • GOLD AWARD - Twitter
      • SILVER AWARD - Mocospace
    • 1.2.7 Mobile Infotainment
      • Table 1.2: Scope of Sport Leisure and Information Content and Services

2. Mobile Entertainment: Market Forecasts & Downturn Impact Analysis

  • 2.1 Forecast Definitions & Methodology
    • 2.1.1 Forecast Definitions
    • 2.1.2 Forecast Methodology
      • Figure: 2.1: Forecast Methodology
  • 2.2 The Global Market for Mobile Entertainment: Impact of the Economic Downturn
    • 2.2.1 Global Volatility
    • 2.2.2 Guidance: Impact on 2008 Forecasts
  • 2.3 Mobile Gambling
    • 2.3.1 Key Market Forces
      • Table 2.1: Mobile Gambling - Impact of Key Market Forces
      • i. Reduced Frequency/Level of Bet Placed
      • ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
      • iii. Wagers Transferred from Physical to Remote Gambling as Customers stay at Home
    • 2.3.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
      • i. Best Case Scenario
        • Figure 2.2: Total Wager ($m) from Mobile Gambling Services. Best Case Scenario by Region 2007-2013
        • Table 2.2: Total Wager ($m) from Mobile Gambling Services. Best Case Scenario by Region 2007-2013
        • Figure 2.3: Total Gross Win ($m) from Mobile Gambling Services by Region, 2007-2013
        • Table 2.3: Total Gross Win ($m) from Mobile Gambling Services by Region, 2007-2013
      • ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
        • Figure 2.4: Mobile Gambling Gross Win ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.4: Mobile Gambling Gross Win ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Figure 2.5: Mobile Gambling Gross Win (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.5: Mobile Gambling Gross Win (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
  • 2.4 Mobile Adult Services
    • 2.4.1 Key Market Forces
      • Table 2.6: Mobile Adult Services - Impact of Key Market Forces
        • i. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
        • ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend on Mobile Adult Services
    • 2.4.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
      • i. Best Case Scenario
        • Figure 2.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Adult Mobile Services. Best Case Scenario by Region 2007-2013
        • Table 2.7: Total Revenues ($m) from Adult Mobile Services. Best Case Scenario by Region 2007-2013
      • ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
        • Figure 2.7: Mobile Adult Services Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.8: Mobile Adult Services Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Figure 2.8: Mobile Adult Services (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.9: Mobile Adult Services (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
  • 2.5 Mobile Games
    • 2.5.1 Key Market Forces
      • Table 2.10: Mobile Games - Impact of Key Market Forces
      • i. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Lower Frequency of Purchase
      • ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
      • iii. Lack of Business Financing
    • 2.5.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
      • i. Best Case Scenario
        • Figure 2.9: Total End-User Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games by Region 2007-2013
        • Table 2.11: Total End-User Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games by Region 2007-2013
      • ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
        • Figure 2.10: Mobile Games Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.12: Mobile Games Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Figure 2.11: Mobile Games (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.13: Mobile Games (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
  • 2.6 Mobile Music
    • 2.6.1 Key Market Forces
      • Table 2.14: Mobile Music - Impact of Key Market Forces
      • i. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Lower Frequency of Purchase
      • ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
      • iii. Increase in User-created Ringtones
    • 2.6.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
      • i. Best/Media Case Scenario
        • Figure 2.12: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
        • Table 2.15: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos). Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
      • ii. Worst Case Scenario
        • Figure 2.13: Mobile Music Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.16: Mobile Music Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Figure 2.14: Mobile Music (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.17: Mobile Music (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
  • 2.7 Mobile TV
    • 2.7.1 Key Market Forces
      • Table 2.18: Mobile TV - Impact of Key Market Forces
      • i. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Lower Subscription Rates and Reduction in ad hoc Purchases
      • ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
      • iii. Slower Network Deployments
      • iv. Lack of Business Financing
    • 2.7.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
      • i. Best Case Scenario
        • Figure 2.15: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile TV (Streamed and Broadcast Services). Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
        • Table 2.19: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile TV (Streamed and Broadcast Services). Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
      • ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
        • Figure 2.16: Mobile TV Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.20: Mobile TV Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Figure 2.17: Mobile TV (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.21: Mobile TV (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
  • 2.8 Mobile User Generated Content
    • 2.8.1 Key Market Forces
      • Table 2.22: Mobile UGC - Impact of Key Market Forces
      • i. Reduced Discretionary Spend on Premium Events and Virtual Items
      • ii. Faster Migration to ad-funded Services
    • 2.8.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
      • i. Best Case Scenario
        • Figure 2.18: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC. Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2013
        • Table 2.23: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC. Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
      • ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
        • Figure 2.19: Mobile UGC Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.24: Mobile UGC Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Figure 2.20: Mobile UGC (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.25: Mobile UGC (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
  • 2.9 Mobile Infotainment
    • 2.9.1 Key Market Forces
      • Table 2.26: Mobile Infotainment - Impact of Key Market Forces
      • i. Reduced Discretionary Spend on Videoclips, Screensavers, Wallpapers and News Services
      • ii. Faster Migration to ad-funded Services
    • 2.9.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
      • i. Best Case/Median Case Scenarios
        • Figure 2.21: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m). Best/Median Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007 - 2013
        • Table 2.27: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m). Best/Median Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007 - 2013
      • ii. Worst Case Scenario
        • Figure 2.22: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.28: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Figure 2.23: Mobile Infotainment (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
        • Table 2.29: Mobile Infotainment (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
  • 2.10 The Global Market for Mobile Entertainment: Product Breakdown
    • 2.10.1 Best Case Scenario
      • Figure 2.24: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Best Case Scenario by Product 2007-2013
      • Table 2.30: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Product Forecast 2007-2013
    • 2.10.2. Median Case Downturn Scenario
      • Figure 2.25 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Median Case Downturn Scenario by Product 2007-2013
      • Table 2.31 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Median Case Downturn Scenario by Product 2007-2013
    • 2.10.3 Worst Case Scenario
      • Figure 2.26 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Worst Case Scenario, By Product 2007-2013
      • Table 2.32 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Worst Case Scenario, By Product 2007-2013
      • Figure 2.27: Comparison of Negative Impact of the Global Economic Downturn, 2009-2010, By Product (Median Case vs. Worst Case)
      • Table 2.33: Comparison of Negative Impact of the Global Economic Downturn, 2009-2013, By Product (Median Case vs. Worst Case)

3. Mobile Entertainment: Market Drivers & Constraints

  • 3.1 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment
    • Figure 3.1: Monthly Voice ARPU ($), Selected Countries (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK, US), 2003-2007
  • 3.2 Market Drivers
    • 3.2.1 Ubiquity
    • 3.2.2 Technological Advances - Networks
    • 3.2.3 Technological Advances - Handsets
    • 3.2.4 Data Charges Are Being Reduced
    • 3.2.5. and Mobile Internet Adoption is Increasing
    • 3.2.6 The iPhone Has Arrived
  • 3.3 Market Constraints
    • 3.3.1 Macro Economic Issues
    • 3.3.2 The User Interface
      • i. Difficulty in Discovering Services and Content
      • ii. Difficulty in Accessing Services and Content
      • iii. Difficulty in Navigating Services and Content
      • iv. Difficulty in Utilising Multiple Applications Simultaneously
    • 3.3.3 Handset Form, Capacity and Battery Life
    • 3.3.4 Network Speed and Coverage
    • 3.3.5 Cost of Data Services
      • Table 3.1: UK Operator Data Prices ($) 2008

4. Regulation and Controls

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Regulatory Environments
    • 4.2.1 Pan European
      • i. The EU Mobile Sweep
      • ii. Human Rights Act
      • iii. EU Directives
        • a. Directive 95/46/EC: Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy
        • b. The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC)
        • c. The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC)
        • d. The E-money Directive
    • 4.2.2 National Legislation
      • i. Australia - the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA)
      • ii. South Africa - ICASA, FPB, WASPA
        • a. ICASA
        • b. FPB (Film and Publications Board)
        • c. Wireless Application Service Providers' ‘Association (WASPA) of South Africa
      • ii. UK - PhonepayPlus
  • 4.3 Self Regulation
    • 4.3.1 UK Operator Self Regulation Approach
    • 4.3.2 Independent Mobile Classification Body (IMCB)
  • 4.4 Digital Rights Protection
    • 4.4.1. Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
      • i. OMA-DRM
      • ii. Case Study: The French Anti-piracy Law

5. Players in Mobile Entertainment

  • 5.1 Introduction
    • 5.1.1 Selected Operators
      • i. ‘3' UK
      • ii. China Mobile
        • a. Company Background
        • b. Products and Services
          • Music Services
          • Other Content Services
      • iii. KDDI
      • iv. SK Telecom
      • v. Sprint Nextel
      • vi. Vodafone
    • 5.1.2 Some Other Mobile Entertainment Value Chain Players
      • i. Apple
        • a. Recent Financial Performance
          • Table 5.1: Apple Revenue and Net Income Growth 2003-2008 ($m, FYE September 30)
      • ii. Products and Services
        • a. iPhone
          • Figure 5.1: Apple iPhone
        • b. iPhone 3G
      • iii. Bango
        • a. Company Background
        • b. Products and Services
          • Figure 5.2: Co-existence of On and Off-Portal Models
          • Bango Analytics
      • iv. Jamba/Jamster
      • v. mBlox
      • vi. Mobile Entertainment Forum
      • vii. Nokia
        • a. Comes With Music
      • viii. Sony Ericsson
        • a. Sony Ericsson Walkman range
          • Figure 5.3: Sony Ericsson W902 Walkman
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