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Market Research Report

Mobile Applications & Apps Stores Business models, Opportunities & Forecasts 2009-2014

Published by Juniper Research
Published May, 2009 Product code 86445
Content info 103 pages
Price
US $ 2570 Hard Copy
US $ 2570 PDF by E-mail (Single User License)
US $ 3670 PDF by E-Mail (Multi User Network License (2-5 Users)
US $ 5510 PDF by E-Mail (Enterprise Wide License)


Mobile Applications & Apps Stores Business models, Opportunities & Forecasts 2009-2014 published by Juniper Research in May, 2009. This report consists of 103 pages and the price starts from US $ 2570.

Introduction

Abstract

This report provides a unique analysis of the opportunity for mobile applications and app stores forecasting the market for six years and vitally breaking down by category of application (mobile game applications, lifestyle and healthcare apps, multimedia & entertainment apps, education & reference, finance & productivity and social networking).

Also available when purchasing this report is the Mobile Applications & Apps Stores Excel Database please click on the link to find out more.

In this report app-billed value added services (subscriptions, premium events and additional content) are forecast revealing a market value well in excess of standalone app downloads and an investigation as to how apps are delivered both on-store and across traditional channels is presented.

In addition this mobile apps report also explains how developers, operators and OS providers have responded to the challenges laid down by the Apps Store including a discussion of how apple differentiated itself from traditional models of content distribution, monetisation and revenue share.

Key questions this mobile applications report answers:
  • How will the mass deployment of app stores impact both upon existing distribution content channels?
  • How will the market for mobile applications develop over the next five years, and to what extent will growth be dependent upon onstore sales?
  • What revenue streams will accrue from value-added services enabled by in-app billing?
  • What opportunities do app stores offer for players across the mobile value chain?
  • Which categories of mobile application will generate the largest revenues?
  • How will app stores effect the distribution of entertainment and content revenues within the mobile ecosystem?
  • Which players are poised to launch app stores in the short and medium term?

Key Benefits:
  • A unique source of combined research & analysis for the mobile applications marketplace including techno1ogies, market characteristics and forecasts.
  • Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities for vendors and operators.
  • Unique insight: inte rviews of leading players with significant experience of the mobile applications market.
  • Benefit from fresh thinking and intellient market assessment.

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

  • Introduction
  • What This Report Covers
  • The Market for Mobile Applications
  • How Content is Monetised
    • The Implications of the App Store Model
  • Strategic Recommendations
    • Storefront Managers
      • .....must seek to ensure availability of mass market app stores
    • Operators
      • .....should partner with third-party storefront managers
      • .....should consider upping fair usage limits and continue to reduce data charges
    • Vendors
      • .....should consider launching own-brand app stores
    • Content Providers
      • .....should offer content across a variety of storefronts
      • ..... should seek to incorporate VAS options within their apps
    • Advertisers
      • .....should seek to incorporate apps within a wider, integrated multimedia campaign

1. The Rise of the App Store

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 What is a Mobile Application?
    • Table 1.1: Examples of Mobile Applications by Entertainment Category
  • 1.3 What This Report Covers
    • 1.3.1Categories of Mobile Application
      • i. Games
      • ii. Finance & Productivity
      • iii. Multimedia & Entertainment
      • iv. Education & Reference
      • v. Lifestyle & Healthcare
      • vi. Social Networking
    • 1.3.2 Mobile Widgets
  • 1.4 The Development of Mobile Applications
    • 1.4.1 OTA Downloads
    • 1.4.2 The Rise of Enterprise
  • 1.5 The First App Stores - Handango, Motricity and GetJar
    • 1.5.1 Handango
    • 1.5.2 Motricity/PocketGear
    • 1.5.3 GetJar
  • 1.6 The iPhone and the App Store
    • 1.6.1 Apps Market pre iPhone
    • 1.6.2 Launch of Apple' s iPhone
    • 1.6.3 The Impact of ' The App Store'
    • 1.6.4 Industry Reaction to the iPhone/App Store
  • 1.7 App Store Deployments Since Mid-2008
    • Table 1.1: App Store Launches, July 2008 onwards
  • 1.8 Key Drivers of the App Store
  • 1.9 Generic Drivers for App Stores

2. The App Store, the Mobile Value Chain and Revenue Distribution

  • 2.1 Value Chain Analysis
    • 2.1.1 Traditional Value Chains
      • Figure 2.1: Traditional Value Chain of Mobile Content
      • Figure 2.2: Mobile Content Value Web
    • 2.1.2 App Store Value Chain
      • Figure 2.3 App Store Value Chain
      • i. Implications of This Model
  • 2.2 App Store Business Models
    • 2.2.1 Pay-Per Download
      • i. Case Study - Bolt Creative
    • 2.2.2 Free to Download
    • 2.2.3 Upselling Content
  • 2.3 Opportunities and Benefits Across the Value Chain
    • 2.3.1 Attractiveness for Operators
      • Figure 2.4: Operator Opportunities from Open Access Model. Western Europe Revenue Share 2008 & 2013
      • i. Case Study: JIL (Joint Innovation Lab)
    • 2.3.2 Advantages to Vendors
    • 2.3.3 Attraction for Content Providers
      • i. Case Study: Shazam
    • 2.3.4 Challenges for White Label Storefront Providers
    • 2.3.5 Advantages for Advertisers
      • Table 2.1: Key Drivers of Advertising in Mobile
      • i. Apps in Advertising - Case Study: Lynx
      • ii. App Store Advertising - Case Study: Carling
      • Figure 2.5: The Carling iPint
  • 2.4 The Future of Legacy Distribution Channels
    • 2.4.1 Operator Portals
    • 2.4.2 Aggregators
    • 2.4.3 Off Portal D2C
  • 2.5 Market Hurdles and Constraints
    • 2.5.1 Addressable Market
    • 2.5.2 Access to the End-user
    • 2.5.3 Visibility
    • 2.5.4 Scale
    • 2.5.5 Application Saturation?
    • 2.5.6 Competitive Pricing
    • 2.5.7 Cost of Data Services
    • 2.5.8 The VoIP Issue
    • 2.5.9 Macro Economic Issues

3. The Market for Mobile App Downloads

  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Relative Popularity of Mobile Applications
    • Figure 3.1: Most Popular Categories of Applications on App Store (%) Split by Number of Titles, March 2009
    • Figure 3.2: Top 100 App Store Paid-for Applications (%) Split by 6 Categories, March 2009
    • Figure 3.3: Top 100 App Store Free Applications (%) Split by 6 Categories, March 2009
    • Table 3.1: % of Handango Downloads Attributable to Games, by OS 2005-2008
  • 3.3 Methodology
    • Figure 3.4: Bottom-Up Methodology for Derivation of Onstore/Offstore Mobile App Usage and Revenues
  • 3.4 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast
    • Figure 3.5: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 3.2: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
  • 3.5 Mobile Application Users and Usage
    • Table 3.3: % Mobile Users Who Download Apps Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
    • Figure 3.6: Number of Mobile Users (m) Who Download Apps Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
    • Table 3.4: Number of Mobile Users (m) Who Download Apps Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
  • 3.6 The Retail Market for Onstore Applications
    • 3.6.1 Onstore Users and Usage
      • Table 3.5: % Application Downloaders (m) who Download via App Stores Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.7: Number of Application Downloaders who Download via App Stores Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.6; Number of Application Downloaders (m) who Download via App Stores Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.8: Average Number of Onstore App Downloads per User per Year Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.7: Average Number of Onstore App Downloads per User per Year Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.9: Total Number of Onstore App Downloads Per Year (m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.8: Total Number of Onstore App Downloads Per Year (m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
    • 3.6.2 Retail Revenues of Onstore Applications
      • Table 3.9: % Onstore App Downloads Which are Paid For Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.10: Number of Onstore App Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.10: Number of Onstore App Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.11: Price Per Onstore Mobile Apps Download ($) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.11: Onstore Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.12: Onstore Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m), Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
  • 3.7 The Retail Market for Offstore Applications
    • 3.7.1 Offstore Users and Usage
      • Table 3.13: % Offstore Application Downloaders who Download, Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.12: Number of Offstore Application Downloaders (m) who Download Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.14: Number of Offstore Application Downloaders (m) who Download Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.13: Average Number of Offstore App Downloads per User per Year Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.15: Average Number of Offstore App Downloads per User per Year Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.14: Total Number of Offstore App Downloads Per Year (bn) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.16: Total Number of Offstore App Downloads Per Year (bn) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
    • 3.7.2 Retail Revenues of Offstore Applications
      • Table 3.17: % Offstore App Downloads Which are Paid For Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.15: Number of Offstore App Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.18: Number of Offstore App Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.19: Offstore Mobile Apps, Price per Download ($) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.16: Offstore Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.20: Offstore Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
  • 3.8 Total Retail Market for Mobile Applications
    • 3.8.1 Application Usage Levels
      • Figure 3.17: Total App Downloads (m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.21: Total App Downloads (m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.18: Total App Downloads (m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2008-2014
      • Table 3.22: Total App Downloads (m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2008-2014
    • 3.8.2 Application Retail Revenues
      • Figure 3.19: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Table 3.23: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Revenues ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2008-2014
      • Figure 3.20: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2008-2014
      • Table 3.24: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2008-2014

4. The Market for Mobile App Value-Added Content and Services

  • 4.1 Methodology
    • Figure 4.1: Bottom Up Methodology for Derivation of Onstore/Offstore Incremental App Revenues (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment)
    • Figure 4.2: Top-Down Methodology for Derivation of Onstore/Offstore Incremental App Revenues (Social Networking (SN), Finance & Productivity)
  • 4.2 The VAS Market for Onstore Applications
    • 4.2.1 Onstore Users and Usage (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare and Multimedia & Entertainment)
      • Table 4.1: % of Downloaded Applications That Upsell VAS, Onstore Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.3: Number of Onstore Downloaded Apps That Upsell VAS, Upsold Content, Split 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Table 4.2: Number of Onstore Downloaded Apps That Upsell VAS, Upsold Content Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.4: Average Number of Onstore VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Table 4.3: Average Number of Onstore VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.5: Total Number of Onstore VAS Sold (m), Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Table 4.4: Total Number of Onstore VAS Sold (m) Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
    • 4.2.2 Incremental Revenues of Onstore Applications
      • Table 4.5: Price Per Onstore VAS, Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.6: Onstore Apps, Upselling Revenues ($m) Split by 5 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment, Finance & Productivity, Social Networking) 2008-
      • 2014
      • Table 4.6: Onstore Apps, Upselling Revenues ($m) Split by Category (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment, Finance & Productivity, Social Networking) 2008-2014
  • 4.3 The VAS Market for Offstore Applications
    • 4.3.1 Offstore Users and Usage (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare and Multimedia & Entertainment)
      • Table 4.7: % of Downloaded Applications That Upsell Offstore VAS Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.7: Number of Downloaded Apps That Upsell Offstore VAS, Upsold Content, Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Table 4.8: Number of Offstore Downloaded Apps That Upsell VAS Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.8: Average Number of Offstore VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Table 4.9: Average Number of Offstore VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.9: Total Number of Offstore VAS Sold (m) Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Table 4.10: Total Number of Offstore VAS Sold (m) Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
    • 4.3.2 Incremental Revenues of Offstore Applications
      • Table 4.11: Price Per Offstore VAS Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.10: Offstore Apps, Upselling Revenues Split by 5 Categories (Social Networking, Finance & Productivity, Multimedia & Entertainment, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Games) 2008-
      • 2014
      • Table 4.12: Offstore Apps, Upselling Revenues Split by 6 Categories (Social Networking, Finance & Productivity, Multimedia & Entertainment, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Games) 2008-2014
  • 4.4 Total VAS Market for Mobile Applications
    • Figure 4.11: Mobile Apps, Total VAS Value ($m) Split by 5 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment, Finance & Productivity, Social Networking) 2008-2014
    • Table 4.13: Mobile Apps, Total VAS Revenues ($m) Split by Category (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment, Finance & Productivity, Social Networking) 2008-2014
    • Figure 4.12: Mobile Apps, Total VAS Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2008-2014
    • Table 4.14: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2008-2014
  • 4.5 How Content is Monetised
    • 4.5.1 The Implications of the App Store Model
      • Figure 4.13: Total Market for Mobile Apps, Retail and VAS Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2008-2014
      • Table 4.15: Total Market for Mobile Apps, Retail and VAS Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2008-2014
      • Figure 4.14: Total Market for Mobile Entertainment ($m) Median-Case Scenario Split by Onstore App Revenues vs Traditional Revenue Channels 2008-2013
      • Table 4.16: Total Market for Mobile Entertainment ($m) Median-Case Scenario Split by Onstore App Revenues vs Traditional Revenue Channels 2008-2013

5. App Stores: The Key Players

  • 5.1 Storefront Brands
    • 5.1.1 Google
    • 5.1.2 Palm
    • 5.1.3 Orange
    • 5.1.4 Research in Motion
    • 5.1.5 Nokia
    • 5.1.6 Microsoft
    • 5.1.7 O2 Litmus
    • 5.1.9 Samsung
    • 5.1.10 Cydia
  • 5.2 White-label Storefronts
    • 5.2.1 Amdocs
    • 5.2.2 SurfKitchen
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