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Intelligence Set: Global market review of hybrids and electric-drive vehicles - forecasts to 2015

Notice
This publication has been discontinued on September 16, 2011.

Abstract

This Intelligence Set includes the 2009 edition of the hybrids and electric drive report, plus manufacturer profiles for Audi, BMW, Chrysler, Daimler, Fiat, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Magna, Mitsubishi, Nissan, PSA Peugeot Citroen, Renault, Tata, Toyota, and Volkswagen.

Each profile is between 15 to 30 pages long, and includes a brief outline of business activity, financial statistics, customers and more. They will allow you to discover where the market is heading, what the latest innovations are, and how your competitors are performing.

This is just-auto' s first global market review of hybrids and electric drive technology. With these sectors set to dominate alternative propulsion and the drive for better fuel efficiency over the short-term future, this report provides a timely review of the latest technologies from the main players, our analysis of market take-up and a review of the different technologies and where they are heading.

Most industry analysts expect plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles to follow a roughly similar growth curve, though aggressive government policies to subsidise plug-ins may increase consumer take-up by compensating for the high cost of the battery packs over the first few years.

Idle-stop, or micro-hybrid systems seem likely to penetrate certain regions - especially Europe - quite rapidly over the next five years.

So how fast will hybrids, plug-ins and electric vehicles increase their total share over the next few years? For example, just-auto believes through its three forecast scenarios, that conventional (' full' or power-split) hybrids such as the archtetypal Toyota Prius will represent anything between 3% and 8% of global light vehicle production by 2015.

Plug-in vehicles will take a much lower share, split among: pure battery-electrics (with ranges of up to 200 miles); plug-in hybrids (PHEVs); and extended-range EVs (' series' hybrids).

This report provides production volume estimates and percentage market shares from 2008 to 2015 for hybrid and plug-in technologies across three scenarios: "battery skeptical"; "moderate"; and "uber-green".

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Market projections

Chapter 2 Technology review

  • Micro-hybrids
  • Mild hybrids
  • Full (parallel or ' power-split' ) hybrid
  • Plug-in hybrids
  • Extended-range electric vehicle
  • The diesel question
  • Downsized and GDI turbocharged petrol engines
  • Battery-electric vehicles
  • And in the end...

Chapter 3 Factors affecting the market

  • Oil prices
  • Carbon/emissions regulations
  • Changing duty cycles
  • Battery costs
  • New financial models
  • Vehicle pricing
  • Electric utility capacity
  • ' Wells to wheels' carbon balance
  • Geopolitics of lithium
  • Loss of OEM control over core technology
  • Hybrids: technology or identity?

Chapter 4 Manufacturer review

Group 1: King of the hill

  • Toyota

Group 2: Production vehicles on sale

  • Honda
  • Ford
  • General Motors
  • Belt-Alternator-Starter (BAS) system
  • Two-Mode Hybrid system
  • Saturn Vue Two-Mode plug-in hybrid
  • Chevrolet Volt/Vauxhall-Opel Ampera/Holden Volt/Cadillac Converg
  • Nissan
  • BYD
  • Tesla
  • Chrysler
  • GEM

Group 3: The rest

  • Audi
  • BMW
  • Fiat
  • Hyundai
  • Magna
  • Mercedes-Benz
  • Miles Automotive
  • Mini
  • Mitsubishi
  • PSA Peugeot Citroen
  • Porsche
  • Renault
  • Smart
  • Subaru
  • Tata
  • Volkswagen

Chapter 5 Estimates on market take-up

  • Bosch
  • Nissan-Renault
  • General Motors
  • Ford
  • Chrysler
  • PSA Peugeot Citroen
  • Hyundai
  • R.L. Polk
  • Global Insight
  • Boston Consulting Group
  • Roland Berger
  • Wintergreen Research
  • Rocky Mountain Institute

Conclusions

About the author

List of tables

  • Table 1: World light vehicle market for electric-drive vehicles (hybrids and plug-ins), production volumes and % share, 2008-2015
  • Table 2: Mild hybrids timeline, 2005-2015 (vehicles, markets, production/sales, range, pack size, output)
  • Table 3: Full hybrids timeline, 2004-2011 (vehicles, markets, production/sales, range, pack size, output)
  • Table 4: Plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles timeline, 2008-2012 (vehicles, markets, production/sales, range, pack size, output)
  • Table 5: Battery electric vehicles timeline, 2008-2012 (vehicles, markets, production/sales, range, pack size, output)
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