Growth opportunities for spirits in developing countries - forecasts to 2012

Growth opportunities for spirits in developing countries - forecasts to 2012 published by just-drinks.com in November, 2008. This report consists of 93 Pages and the price starts from US $ 1192.

Introduction

Abstract

This brand new report from IWSR and just-drinks focuses on the spirits markets in countries with the greatest growth potential over the next five years.

It is essential reading for anyone with an eye to the future. The new report covers each of the ever-important Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) markets but also includes other dynamic areas such as Poland, Mexico, Thailand, South Africa and travel retail. Categories covered within each market include whisk(e)y, rum, brandy and Cognac, vodka and gin. The report contains historic and forecast category volume data, company and brand share data, as well extensive extracts from interviews with leading industry figures and in-depth analysis of the key factors driving these new frontiers.

The concept of emerging market countries is more an economic one than anything else. It refers to countries where economic growth is trending up, but per capita income is still less than US$10,000. In many cases these economies are moving from agricultural-based societies to ones that host large and expanding urban centres. As has occurred in developed markets, there is a broad migration from the countryside into these cities.

Historically, import penetration of these markets has been very low. In China, the largest of these markets, imports comprised of just 0.8% of total spirits sales in 2007 (up from 0.2% in 2003). In Russia, that figure is 4.7% (up from 1.8%), India just 0.05% (up from 0.02%) and Brazil 0.15% (up from 0.12%).

The main reasons for the relatively small import share in these emerging markets include low disposable incomes and tariff barriers. But there are also other non-tariff barriers. But, as disposable incomes rise with economic development and barriers come down (much of it driven by the WTO), these conditions are suddenly more favourable.

Such is the growth in these BRIC markets that Beam Global Spirits & Wine managing director, international Donard Gaynor expects they will eventually overtake the G8 countries in terms of importance. “It could happen as soon as 2050, which is not such a long time if you consider that we are now putting down whisk[e]y for drinking in 12 years' time. It is just phenomenal to consider what impact that kind of growth will have on the industry. Dramatic increases in per capita income in these BRIC markets will fuel big consumer spend. And there' s another group of countries that are right behind those four, which have some bigger challenges to get over, but they have the potential to be really big markets too - countries, such as Turkey, Vietnam and Indonesia, could become significant. It' s a great time to be in the international industry.”

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Market opportunities

• Low import penetration
• Overview of categories
• Tumbling barriers and buoyant economies
• Multinationals' varied approach
• Emerging market producers raise their game
• Emerging market companies look outward

Chapter 2: Asia market review

• India
• Favourable environment
• Different approaches
• Retail revolution
• Complex market
• Local liquor surges in India
• Indian whisk(e)y dominates
• China
• Chinese consumers trade up
• Hennessy surges
• Scotch growth slows
• High-end Scotch booms
• Counterfeit problem
• Other categories
• Thailand
• Changing environment

Chapter 3: Eastern and Central Europe market review

• Russian Federation
• Rising import market
• Retail developments
• Less but better
• Market leader
• Industry consolidation
• Distribution moves
• Southern Republics
• Central European markets
• Poland

Chapter 4: Latin America market review

• Brazil
• Other categories
• Mexico

Chapter 5: Other markets

• South Africa
• Growing female consumption
• Travel retail
• Asian developments
• New channels
• Emerging markets make an impact in Europe
• Latin growth

List of figures

• Figure 1: Market volume of spirits in India by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 2: Market volume of imported spirits in India by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 3: Market volume of imported spirits in China by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 4: Market volume of imported spirits in Thailand by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 5: Market volume of imported spirits in Russia by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 6: Market volume of spirits in Russia by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 7: Market volume of spirits in Poland by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 8: Market volume of imported spirits in Poland by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 9: Market volume of spirits in Brazil by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 10: Market volume of imported spirits in Brazil by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 11: Market volume of imported spirits in Mexico by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 12: Market volume of spirits in Mexico by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 13: Market volume of spirits in South Africa by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Figure 14: Market volume of imported spirits in South Africa by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)

List of tables

• Table 1: India spirits market volume by sector, 2003-2012 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 2: Top ten imported spirits brands in India, 2003-2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 3: China spirits market volume by sector, 2003-2012 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 4: Market volume of spirits in China by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Table 5: Top ten imported spirits brands in China, 2003-2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 6: Thailand spirits market volume by sector, 2003-2012 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 7: Market volume of spirits in Thailand by company share, 2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases)
• Table 8: Russia spirits market volume by sector, 2003-2012 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 9: Top ten imported spirits brands in Russia, 2006-2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 10: Total and imported spirits market volumes of Eastern Europe, Baltics and Balkans countries, 2003-2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 11: Poland spirits market volume by sector, 2003-2012 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 12: Brazil spirits market volume by sector, 2003-2012 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 13: Top ten imported spirits brands in Brazil, 2003-2007 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 14: Mexico spirits market volume by sector, 2003-2012 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)
• Table 15: South Africa spirits market volume by sector, 2003-2012 (‘000s nine-litre cases and % change)

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