Utilities have long known that renewables will impact the grid, but have yet to define and quantify the impact in any usable way. In this report, we define intermittency and determine the optimal mix of baseload and flexible generation coupled with emerging technologies required to integrate more than 30% wind and solar generation into grid. Emerging automated demand response programs are the lowest cost option, but are limited to being capable of managing only the highest 2% of demand. At current natural gas prices, electricity can be generated by natural gas power plants cheaper than it can be stored and shifted by any grid storage technology. However, unbridled natural gas use with 30% renewables and no storage will unavoidably result in the curtailment of renewably generated electricity. To minimize curtailment, utilities will have to install enough grid storage to capture and shift at least 0.5% of the total electricity generated over the course of the year.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
To Plan for Intermittency, Utilities Must Align Renewable Generation Profiles with Demand Curves
The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Mirrors a Vertically Integrated Utility's Cost-minimization Approach
Landscape
Intermittent Renewable Energy Resources Present Unique Challenges to Utilities
Intermittent Generation Will Wreak Havoc on an Unprepared Grid
The Rapidly Growing Base of Wind and Solar is Forcing Operators to Manage Intermittency
We Focus on How the Intermittency Caused by Wind and Solar can be Managed by Natural Gas, autoDR, and Energy Storage
The Intermittency Issues Caused by Renewables Vary Significantly between Wind and Solar
Natural Gas, autoDR, and Energy Storage Together can Effectively Manage Intermittency
Intermittency Mitigation Varies between its Causes and the Responsiveness of a Resource
A High Level of Granularity is Required to Adequately Assess the Impact of Renewables on the Power Grid
Numerous Factors Impact the Operator's Ability to Manage Intermittency
Landscape Conclusions
Analysis
Understanding Technology Lifetime Costs Takes into Account its Performance Capabilities
Capital Costs Alone Do Not Dictate the LCOE of Each Technology
Natural Gas is the Status Quo, but AutoDR and Storage will Shoulder the Future Load
To Assess the Costs Associated with Intermittency, We Modeled Average Daily Loads throughout the Year
Climate Dictates Seasonal and Daily Demand Profiles
Analysis Conclusions
Outlook
About Lux Research
Endnotes
Cloudy with a Chance of Energy: Evaluating Technologies to Manage Grid Intermittency published by Lux Research in September 18, 2012. This report consists of Pages: 33 and the price starts from US $ 3500.
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