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4G Latin America: Analysis and Forecast 2012-2017

Abstract

Foreword

4G Latin America: Analysis and Forecast 2012 - 2017 analyzes key trends for Latin American development and deployment of LTE networks from both the regulatory and service provider's standpoint. The report gives a detailed analysis of the status of 3G and 4G (WiMAX / LTE) in the region and the challenges and opportunities for TD-LTE and FDD-LTE deployment for operators of all sizes.

This report explains the regulatory environment in the key economies of the region which contribute 80% of mobile service revenues - notably Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Colombia. It also analyzes current and future 4G spectrum usage and allocation and the major spectrum challenges that both regulatory bodies and operators are facing today.

This report also includes projections for deployments, subscribers, equipment and CAPEX for 2012- 2017.

The business cases of five operators - selected as being early 4G entrants in the region - are analyzed in this report. Some already have commercial LTE operations in place. A key element of the report is a series of interviews with these key operators, which have shared with us their deployment strategy, business model, equipment selections, current and future challenges and expectations. Each of these operators is representative of a different business model within the region, and each is located in a different market:

  • 1) Axtel (Mexico) - The largest mobile WiMAX operator in Latin America today. The operator
  • might become among the first to implement TD-LTE in 3.5GHz.
  • 2) UNE (Colombia) - First commercial LTE deployment in Colombia and first in Latin America to
  • deploy FDD-LTE in the 2.6GHz band. UNE also has a fixed WiMAX network in place.
  • 3) Movilmax (Venezuela) - Greenfield operator in Venezuela, currently deploying mobile WiMAX
  • in 2.6GHz, planning to have a network overlay with TD-LTE.
  • 4) Open Mobile (Puerto Rico) - 4th largest mobile carrier in Puerto Rico, and first to commercially
  • launch LTE in the 700MHz band.
  • 5) Entel (Chile) - Largest mobile operator in Chile, planning to deploy FDD LTE in the 2.6GHz and
  • TD-LTE in the 3.5GHz band. Entel is waiting for the upcoming spectrum auction of 2.6GHz.

Table of Contents

1. Foreword

2. Executive Summary

3. Latin America 3G/4G Facts and Figures

  • 3.1 Share of Internet Users in the Total Population
  • 3.2 Share of Mobile Subscribers in Latin America 2012
  • 3.3 Growth of Mobile Subscribers in Latin America 2012 - 2017
  • 3.4 Growth of Mobile Broadband in Latin America 2006 - 2017
  • 3.5 Growth of Mobile Broadband in Latin America 2006 -2017
  • 3.6 Mobile Subscribers Share by Operator in Latin America 2011
  • 3.7 Mobile ARPU and Revenues in Latin America 2011
  • 3.8 Mobile Churn
  • 3.9 WiMAX Key Figures and Statistics
  • 3.10 WiMAX ARPU and Service Revenues
  • 3.11 LTE Key Figures and Statistics in Latin America
  • 3.12 Map of LTE Commercial Deployments in Latin America 2012
  • 3.13 Map of LTE Trials in Latin America 2012
  • 3.14 LTE CAPEX 2012

4. Latin America 4G Fact Sheet (June 2012)

5. Regulatory Environment & Spectrum Policy

  • 5.1 Spectrum Usage in Latin America
  • 5.2 Spectrum Policy in Major Markets
    • 5.2.1 Argentina
    • 5.2.2 Brazil
    • 5.2.3 Chile
    • 5.2.4 Colombia
    • 5.2.5 Mexico
  • 5.3 Spectrum Challenges in Latin America

6. 4G Service Providers Analysis

  • 6.1 Open Mobile (Puerto Rico)
    • Operator Overview
    • Spectrum
    • Geographical Coverage
    • Service Offerings
    • LTE Deployment Plans
    • Data Usage
    • RAN & Devices
    • Maravedis-Rethink Assesment
  • 6.2 UNE Telecomunicaciones (Colombia)
    • Operator Overview
    • Spectrum
    • Geographical Coverage
    • Service Offerings
    • LTE Deployment Plans
    • Data Usage.
    • RAN and Devices
    • Maravedis-Rethink Assessment
  • 6.3 Omnivision - Movilmax (Venezuela)
    • Operator Overview
    • Spectrum
    • Geographical Coverage
    • Service Offerings
    • LTE Deployment Plans
    • Data Usage
    • RAN and Devices
    • Maravedis - Rethink Assesment
  • 6.4 Axtel (Mexico)
    • Operator Overview
    • Spectrum
    • Geographical Coverage
    • Service Offerings
    • LTE Deployment Plans
    • Data Usage
    • RAN and Devices
    • Maravedis-Rethink Assesment
  • 6.5 ENTEL
    • Operator Overview
    • Spectrum
    • Geographical Coverage
    • Service Offerings
    • LTE Deployment Plans
    • RAN and Devices
    • Maravedis-Rethink Assessment

7. Market Forecasts 2012 -2017

  • 7.1 Fixed and Mobile Broadband Internet Subscriber Forecast 2012 - 2017
  • 7.2 Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • 7.3 TD-LTE & FDD LTE Subscriber Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • 7.4 4G Device Forecast by Technology Type 2011 - 2017
  • 7.5 Dual-Mode LTE Device Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • 7.6 Multi-Mode LTE Device Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • 7.7 4G Device Forecast by Form Factor 2011 - 2017
  • 7.8 4G Base Stations Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • 7.10 4G Market Share in US$ Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • 7.11 4G Device Breakdown by Frequency Band 2011 - 2017

LIST OF FIGURES

  • Figure 1: Internet Usage in Latin America 2006 (Left)
  • Figure 2: Internet Usage in Latin America Q2 2012 (Right)
  • Figure 3: Latin America Mobile Subscribers Worldwide Market Share (Left)
  • Figure 4: Mobile Subscribers Distribution in Latin America Q2 2012 (Right)
  • Figure 5: Latin America Mobile Subscribers and Mobile Penetration Forecast 2011 - 2016
  • Figure 6: Latin America Fixed Broadband Subscriber Forecast 2006 - 2017 (In Millions)
  • Figure 7: Latin America Mobile Broadband Subscriber Forecast 2006 - 2017
  • Figure 8: Prepaid and Postpaid Split of Mobile Subscribers in Latin America in 2011.
  • Figure 9: Data Contribution to Service Revenue in Latin America (2011)
  • Figure 10: Quarterly WiMAX ARPU per Region Q1 2012 (Left)
  • Figure 11: Quarterly BWA/WiMAX Service Revenue Growth per Region (TOP 50 WiMAX Operators) Q4 2009 - Q4 2011 (Right)
  • Figure 12: Estimated LTE CAPEX 2012 by Region (Left)
  • Figure 13: Average LTE CAPEX 2012 by Operator (Right)
  • Figure 14: Internet usage in Latin America Q2 2012
  • Figure 15: 3G Diagram of 3G blocks
  • Figure 16: Open Mobile 3G Coverage Map
  • Figure 17: Open Mobile Aggregate Internet Traffic
  • Figure 18: LTE devices introduced by Open Mobile
  • Figure 19: Open Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 20: UNE Telecomunicaciones LTE Subscriber Forecast 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 21: Movilmax 4G deployment History 2007 - 2012
  • Figure 22: Internet Penetration in Venezuela (Q4 2011)
  • Figure 23:Telecom Scenario in Venezuela
  • Figure 24: Movilmax Service Plans and Offerings
  • Figure 26: Average data download per Movilmax user (Monthly) March 2011 - 2012
  • Figure 27: Movilmax WiMAX device portfolio (As of May 2012)
  • Figure 28: Movilmax mobile devices 3G/4G (WiMAX) being tested (As of May 2012)
  • Figure 29: Movilmax WiMAX and TD-LTE Subscriber Forecast 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 30: Chilean Telecom Market: Market Revenue and Penetration Services
  • Figure 31: Number of Mobile Subscribers by Country and Mobile Penetration in Latin America
  • Figure 32: Entel LTE planned Service Offerings and Target Markets
  • Figure 33: Chile LTE Spectrum allocation and Deployment Roadmap 2011 - 2013
  • Figure 34: Evolution of Internet connections in Chile from fixed to mobile technology
  • Figure 35: Entel LTE Subscriber Forecast 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 36: Latin America Internet Users (in Millions) and Market Penetration 2011 - 2017
  • Figure 37: Latin America Fixed Broadband Subscriber Forecast 2006 - 2017
  • Figure 38: Latin America Mobile Subscribers and Mobile Penetration Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • Figure 39: Latin America Mobile Broadband Subscriber Forecast 2006 - 2017 (In Millions)
  • Figure 40: Latin America Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Technology Type 2011-2017
  • Figure 41: Latin America TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriber Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • Figure 42: Fixed and Mobile WiMAX Devices Forecast in Latin America 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 43: FDD LTE & TD-LTE Device Forecast in Latin America 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 44: Dual - Mode TD-LTE + FDD LTE Devices Forecast in Latin America 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 45:Multi-Mode LTE Device Forecast in Latin America 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 46: 4G (WiMAX/LTE) Device Forecast by Form Factor in Latin America 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 47: 4G Base Stations Installed (Accumulative) Projections in Latin America (2012-2017)
  • Figure 48:4G Base Stations Sectors Installed by Technology in Latin America 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 49: 4G Device Breakdown by Frequency Band in Latin America 2012 - 2017 (In Millions)

LIST OF TABLES

  • Table 1: Mobile Subscribers by Key Operators in Latin America (in Millions)
  • Table 2: Average Mobile Postpaid ARPU in Latin America 2011 (US$)
  • Table 3: Average Mobile Churn Rate 2011 (%)
  • Table 4: TOP WiMAX Operators in Latin America by number of Subscribers
  • Table 5: LTE Commitments, Trials and Commercial Networks in Latin America at the end of January 2012
  • Table 6: LTE Spectrum Usage and Allocation
  • Table 7: Current Spectrum Usage in Latin America and the Caribbean
  • Table 8: Argentina 800MHz and 1900MHz License Holders
  • Table 9: Argentina 2.6GHz and 3.5GHz License Holders
  • Table 10: 2G Spectrum Bands and Frequencies
  • Table 11: Brazil's 2G Operators, Frequency Bands and Coverage
  • Table 12: Spectrum caps per frequency Band for 2G
  • Table 13: Brazil 3G Spectrum Bands and amount of Spectrum
  • Table 14: Brazil 3G License Areas
  • Table 15: Brazil 3G Spectrum Winners - December 2007 Auction
  • Table 16: Brazil 800MHz and 1800MHz license holders.
  • Table 17: 3.5GHz Licenses Holders in Brazil.
  • Table 18: Chile 3G and 4G Spectrum License Holders
  • Table 19: Colombia 3.5GHz License Holders
  • Table 20: Colombia 3G License Holders
  • Table 21: Summary of Spectrum Allocation and Upcoming Auctions in Colombia
  • Table 22: 3G License Holders in Mexico.
  • Table 23: 3.5GHz license holders in Mexico
  • Table 24: 700MHz license holders in Mexico
  • Table 25: Open Mobile Spectrum Holdings
  • Table 26: Open Mobile LTE Service Offerings
  • Table 27: UNE's participation in the Telecom sector of Colombia
  • Table 28: UNE 2.6Gz and 3.5GHz Spectrum Licenses
  • Table 29: LTE Coverage Requirements for UNE
  • Table 30: Movilmax 2.6GHz Spectrum License
  • Table 31: Axtel WiMAX Service Offerings
  • Table 32: Entel 2G, 3G and WiMAX Spectrum Licenses
  • Table 33: Internet Usage Forecast 2012 - 2016 Top Countries
  • Table 34:Internet Usage Forecast 2012 - 2016 Top Countries (%age)
  • Table 35: Fixed Broadband Penetration in Latin America (In Millions)
  • Table 36: Latin America Mobile Subscribers Forecast 2011 - 2016
  • Table 37: Mobile Broadband Penetration in Latin America (In Millions)
  • Table 38: Latin America Mobile Subscribers Forecast by Technology 2011 - 2017 (In Millions)
  • Table 39: Latin America 4G Subscriber Forecast by Technology type 2011 - 2017 (In Millions)
  • Table 40: WiMAX Devices Forecast 2011 - 2017
  • Table 41: Dual-Mode LTE Devices (In Millions)
  • Table 42: Multi-Mode LTE Devices (In Millions)
  • Table 43:4G Device Forecast by Form Factor 2010 - 2017 (In Millions)
  • Table 44: 4G Device Forecast by Form Factor Breakdown (%)
  • Table 45: 4G (WiMAX/LTE) Base Station Market in Latin America 2012-2017
  • Table 46: Accumulative 4G Base Stations Forecast 2012 - 2017
  • Table 47: 4G Device Market (in US$ Million) Projections in Latin America 2012 - 2017
  • Table 48: 4G Devices by Frequency (In Millions)
  • Table 49:4G Devices by Frequency (%age)
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