Market Research Report

A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the Metallurgical Coal Industry (model only)

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Introduction

Abstract

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents

List of tables

1. Analyst's summary

2. The macroeconomic environment 2011-2020

  • 2.1. The global economy
  • 2.2. China
  • 2.3. Asia
  • 2.4. Middle East and Africa
  • 2.5. Americas
  • 2.6. Western Europe
  • 2.7. Eastern Europe and Russia
  • 2.8. Economic case statistics
    • 2.8.1. Base case economic statistics
    • 2.8.2. Best case economic statistics
    • 2.8.3. Worst case economic statistics
    • 2.8.4. Exceptional worst case economic statistics

3. Crude steel production

  • 3.1. Overview
  • 3.2. Outlook
  • 3.3. Environmental considerations

4. BFI production

  • 4.1. Overview
  • 4.2. Outlook

5. Metallurgical coal demand

  • 5.1. Overview and outlook
  • 5.2. Technological advances in steel making: the impact on metallurgical coal demand

6. Metallurgical coal supply

  • 6.1. Overview and outlook
  • 6.2. Metallurgical coal production and developments in major supply areas
    • 6.2.1. Australia
      • 6.2.1.1. BHP-Billiton
      • 6.2.1.2. Rio Tinto
      • 6.2.1.3. Xstrata
      • 6.2.1.4. Peabody
      • 6.2.1.5. Macarthur Coal
      • 6.2.1.6. Anglo American Coal 6.2.1.7 Wesfamers Resources
      • 6.2.1.8. Vale
      • 6.2.1.9. Gloucester Coal
      • 6.2.1.10. Centennial Coal
      • 6.2.1.11. QCoal
      • 6.2.1.12. Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (Felix Resources)
      • 6.2.1.13. Jellinbah Resources
      • 6.2.1.14. Whitehaven Mining
      • 6.2.1.15. Gujarat NRE Coke
      • 6.2.1.16. Idemitsu
      • 6.2.1.17. Other
    • 6.2.2. Canada
      • 6.2.2.1. Jim Walter Resources (Canada, formerly Western Canadian Coal)
      • 6.2.2.2. Teck (Elk Valley Coal)
      • 6.2.2.3. Grande Cache Coal
      • 6.2.2.4. Anglo American (Peace River Coal)
      • 6.2.2.5. Xstrata (Canada)
      • 6.2.2.6. Other
    • 6.2.3. China
    • 6.2.4. Indonesia
      • 6.2.4.1. PT Bumi Resources and Tata Power
      • 6.2.4.2. Marunda Graha Mineral (MGM)
      • 6.2.4.3. IndoMet (BHP-Billiton)
      • 6.2.4.4. SouthGobi Energy
      • 6.2.4.5. Trans Asia Mineral
    • 6.2.5. Mongolia
    • 6.2.6. Mozambique
  • 6.2.6.1. Riversdale Mining (RioTinto)
  • 6.2.6.2. Vale
    • 6.2.7. Poland
    • 6.2.8. Russia
      • 6.2.8.1. Evraz Group
      • 6.2.8.2. Severstal Group
      • 6.2.8.3. Mechel Group
      • 6.2.8.4. ArcelorMittal (Russia)
      • 6.2.8.5. Sibuglemet
      • 6.2.8.6. Neryungrinsky
      • 6.2.8.7. Norilsk Nickel
    • 6.2.9. Ukraine
    • 6.2.10. USA
      • 6.2.10.1. Alpha Natural Resources (Massey Energy/Foundation)
      • 6.2.10.2. Arch Coal
      • 6.2.10.3. Cliffs
      • 6.2.10.4. CONSOL Energy
      • 6.2.10.5. Jim Walter Resources
      • 6.2.10.6. Patriot Coal
      • 6.2.10.7. Others

7. Global trade

  • 7.1. Overview and outlook

8. Metallurgical coal prices

  • 8.1. Introduction
  • 8.2. Market balance
  • 8.3. Scenarios
    • 8.3.1. Best case scenario
    • 8.3.2. Worst case scenario
    • 8.3.3. Exceptional worst case scenario
    • 8.3.4. Increase of 5% in global supply relative to the economic base case
    • 8.3.5. Decrease of 5% in global supply relative to the economic base case
  • 8.4. The long-term price

9. Appendix A: Coke production and capacity

  • 9.1.1. Austria
  • 9.1.2. Belgium
  • 9.1.3. Finland
  • 9.1.4. France
  • 9.1.5. Germany
  • 9.1.6. Italy
  • 9.1.7. Netherlands
  • 9.1.8. Spain
  • 9.1.9. Sweden
  • 9.1.10. UK
  • 9.1.11. Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • 9.1.12. Bulgaria
  • 9.1.13. Czech Republic
  • 9.1.14. Hungary
  • 9.1.15. Poland
  • 9.1.16. Romania
  • 9.1.17. Slovakia
  • 9.1.18. Kazakhstan
  • 9.1.19. Russia
  • 9.1.20. Ukraine
  • 9.1.21. Canada
  • 9.1.22. Mexico
  • 9.1.23. USA
  • 9.1.24. Argentina
  • 9.1.25. Brazil
  • 9.1.26. Chile
  • 9.1.27. Colombia
  • 9.1.28. Algeria
  • 9.1.29. Egypt
  • 9.1.30. South Africa
  • 9.1.31. Zimbabwe
  • 9.1.32. Iran
  • 9.1.33. China
  • 9.1.34. India
  • 9.1.35. Japan
  • 9.1.36. Pakistan
  • 9.1.37. South Korea
  • 9.1.38. Taiwan
  • 9.1.39. Turkey
  • 9.1.40. South East Asia
  • 9.1.41. Australia

10. Appendix B: Metallurgical coal project expansions

11. Appendix C: Review tables

List of tables

Base case

  • Table 1: Real GDP $tr (2010 Inflation Adjusted) 2006-2020, Region
  • Table 2: Real GDP Growth 2006-2020, Region and Country (y-o-y)
  • Table 3: Industrial Production Growth 2006-2020, Region and Country (y-o-y)

Best case

  • Table 4: Real GDP $tr (2010 Inflation Adjusted) 2006-2020, Region
  • Table 5: Real GDP Growth 2006-2020, Region and Country (y-o-y)
  • Table 6: Industrial Production Growth 2006-2020, Region and Country (y-o-y)

Worst case

  • Table 7: Real GDP $tr (2010 Inflation Adjusted) 2006-2020, Region
  • Table 8: Real GDP Growth 2006-2020, Region and Country (y-o-y)
  • Table 9: Industrial Production Growth 2006-2020, Region and Country (y-o-y)

Exceptional worst case

  • Table 10: Real GDP $tr (2010 Inflation Adjusted) 2006-2020, Region
  • Table 11: Real GDP Growth 2006-2020, Region and Country (y-o-y)
  • Table 12: Industrial Production Growth 2006-2020, Region and Country (y-o-y)
  • Table 13: Global Steel Production Summary 2006-2020 (m tonnes)
  • Table 14: Coking Coal Consumption (hard & soft) 2006-2020, Region and Country (m tonnes)
  • Table 15: PCI Consumption 2006-2020, Region and Country (m tonnes)
  • Table 16: Total Metallurgical Coal Consumption 2006-2020, Region and Country (m tonnes)
  • Table 17: Consumption Rates 2006-2020, Region and Country (PCI/coke - kg/tonne BFI production, coal - kg/tonne coke production)
  • Table 18: Real Metallurgical Coal Production 2006-2020, Region and Country (m tonnes)
  • Table 19: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Australia
  • Table 20: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) BHP-Billiton
  • Table 21: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Rio Tinto
  • Table 22: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Xstrata
  • Table 22.1: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Resource Pacific (Part of Xstrata since 2008)
  • Table 23: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Peabody
  • Table 24: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Macarthur Coal
  • Table 25: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Anglo Coal
  • Table 25.1: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Foxleigh (Part of Anglo American since 2008)
  • Table 26: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Wesfarmers
  • Table 27: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Vale
  • Table 28: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Gloucester Coal (Duralie and Stratford operations)
  • Table 29: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Centennial Coal
  • Table 30: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Qcoal
  • Table 31: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Yanzhou Coal Mining Company
  • Table 31.1: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Felix Resources (2010 Acquired by Yanzhou)
  • Table 32: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Jellinbah Resources
  • Table 33: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Whitehaven Mining
  • Table 34: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Gujarat NRE Coke
  • Table 35: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Idemitsu
  • Table 36: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Various: Caledon Resources/Northern Energy Corp/New Hope Mining/Mis
  • Table 37: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Canada
  • Table 38: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Jim Walter Resources (Western Canadian Coal)
  • Table 38.1: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Pine Valley - Willow Creek asset, part of Western Canadian Coal since 2008
  • Table 39: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Teck (Elk Valley Coal)
  • Table 40: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Grande Cache Coal
  • Table 41: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Peace River Coal
  • Table 41.1: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Northern Energy & Mining (Trend small mine project, added to Peace River Coal profile in late-2006)
  • Table 42: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) China
  • Table 43: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Indonesia
  • Table 44: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Mongolia
  • Table 45: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Mozambique
  • Table 46: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Poland
  • Table 47: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Russia
  • Table 48: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Ukraine
  • Table 49: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) USA
  • Table 50: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Alpha Natural Resources - Takeover of Foundation 2009 and Massey 2011
  • Table 50.1: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Massey Energy - As of 2011 part of Alpha Natural Resources
  • Table 50.2: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Foundation - As of 2009 part of Alpha Natural Resources
  • Table 51: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Arch Coal, Takeover of ICG in 2011
  • Table 52: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Cliffs *Production from PinnOak Resources (Pinnacle complex/Oak Grove) and INR (CCLC complex) assets prior to mergers included
  • Table 53: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) CONSOL Energy
  • Table 54: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Jim Walter Resources
  • Table 55: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Patriot Coal
  • Table 56: (supply profile 2005-2020, m tonnes) Other - Wexford/Various
  • Table 57: Metallurgical Coal Exports 2006-2020, Country (HCC, SCC, PCI, m tonnes)
  • Table 58: Metallurgical Coal Trade 2006-2020, Region (m tonnes)
  • Table 59: Base Case Metallurgical Coal Price Balance 2006-2020 (m tonnes)
  • Table 60: Best Case Metallurgical Coal Price Balance 2006-2020 (m tonnes)
  • Table 61: Worst Case Metallurgical Coal Price Balance 2006-2020 (m tonnes)
  • Table 62: Exceptional Worst Case Metallurgical Coal Price Balance 2006-2020 (m tonnes)
  • Table 63: Supply Increase (+5%) Metallurgical Coal Price Balance 2006-2020 (m tonnes)
  • Table 64: Supply Decrease (-5%) Metallurgical Coal Price Balance 2006-2020 (m tonnes)

A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the Metallurgical Coal Industry (model only) published by Metal Bulletin Research in April 30, 2012. This report price starts from US $ 14370.

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