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The Smart Grid Business 2012 to 2017

Abstract

This report is the definitive resource for Smart Grid Research, combining clearly defined Market Sizing Statistics with Financial Analysis of Merger, Acquisition and Investment. Within its 239 pages and over 30 charts and tables, the report establishes the facts and draws conclusions as to what is shaping the future of the Smart Grid industry;

In the last 3 years we estimate that the world investment in Smart Grid has doubled from $16.2 billion in 2010 to $36.5 in 2012. However, it is rather unbalanced because the current share taken by smart meters is running at around 40% of the market, whilst its potential market value over the full 20 year program will be no more than 9%.

The structure of the business is currently skewed heavily towards the major international suppliers where 26 companies shared sales of $81.9 billion in 2012 giving an average revenue of $3.125 billion but only accounting for 1% of the population of suppliers.

Supply side Business Models and Routes to Market will change to exploit the opportunities of Smart Grid as applied to the Industrial and Commercial market, the interface with Smart Buildings and the Electrical Utility market.

Communications is the one of the 4 main sectors that now makes up a Pure Smart Grid business. There is a lack of expertise and understanding of communications technology within the utility industry to develop it. It will therefore require expertise and investment from the wider communications industry to rapidly transform this aspect of the business.

In the space of 6 years mergers and acquisitions have grown from $134 million in 2007 to $10.6 billion in 2011 and a near doubling in the value of deals at $19.5 billion in 2012. Both the growth and now scale of M&A activity show the supply side is gearing up to meet the requirements of new technology and forecast demand for pure smart grid products and systems worth approx. $2,000 billion over the next 20 years.

In the last 3 years M&A activity has been driven by strategic buys, particularly by the major global electrical transmission and distribution supplier companies. In 2010 strategic buys accounted for 73% of the deals, in 2011 they increased their share marginally to 75%. In 2012 they declined to 60% as acquisitions from companies external to electrical transmission and distribution industry, particularly IT and communications companies made some large and impressive acquisitions to gain a strong foothold in the Smart Grid business.

Total new VC investment for 2012 was $779 million based on 41 transactions, which is a fall of 37% on 2011. So along with Clean Tech VC investment it declined, but we believe that it has now bottomed out.

Table of Contents

Preface

Executive Summary

1. Introduction

2. Size, Structure & Shape of the Electrical Transmission, Distribution & Smart Grid Business

  • 2.1 Structure & Shape of the Business
  • 2.2 State of the Business

3. Market Size - Electrical Generation, Transmission & Distribution Equipment

  • 3.1 A Global Market
    • 3.1.1 World Generation Capacity - Identifying the Largest Potential Markets
    • 3.1.2 World Renewable Power Capacity - Identifying the Best Potential Markets
    • 3.1.3 World Power Transmission & Distribution Equipment Sales 2012

4. Pure Smart Grid World Market Size 2012 & Potential Size to 2030

  • 4.1 Setting the Parameters & Rationale
  • 4.2 Smart Grid Market Size by Product 2012 & Forecast to 2017
    • 4.2.1 Market Size Smart Meters & AMI
    • 4.2.2 Market Size Transmission Systems
    • 4.2.3 Market Size Distribution Systems
    • 4.2.4 Market Size Consumer Interfaces HANS, EMS, Distributed & Micro-energy, Storage & EV's
    • 4.2.5 Market Size Communication Networks
    • 4.2.6 Smart Grid Cyber Security Expenditure
    • 4.2.7 Market Size Analytics, Enterprise & Security Software
  • 4.3 Total Potential World Investment at Full Penetration
    • 4.3.1 Potential Size of Smart Grid World Market by Country
    • 4.3.2 Potential Size of the Smart Grid Market by Country & Product Grouping
  • 4.4 Market Size by Product & Country & Forecast to 2030
    • 4.4.1 Market Size - Transmission Systems
    • 4.4.2 Market Size - Distribution Systems
    • 4.4.3 Market Size - Advanced Metering & Infrastructure Networks
    • 4.4.4 Market Size - Consumer Interfaces, HAN, EMS, Storage & EV's

5. Strategy - Business Models & Routes to Market

  • 5.1 Factors that will Shape Strategy
  • 5.2 Strategy & Business Models
  • 5.3 Routes to Market - Expect Changes to Traditional Trading Practices & Channels of Distribution
  • 5.4 Innovation is Key to Smart Grid Growth
  • 5.5 Government Support Initiatives - Carrot or Stick?

6. Drivers, Barriers and the Implementation of New Technologies

  • 6.1 Smart Grid Drivers
    • 6.1.1 Now must be the Time to Focus on Bringing it all Together
    • 6.1.2 Is Base Load Power Needed? Distributed Power is Certainly a Must
    • 6.1.3 Can Current Technology Deliver a Smart Grid?
    • 6.1.4 Regional Variations
  • 6.2 Road Blocks that may slow down Smart Grid Development
    • 6.2.1 Stuck between a Financial Rock and an Economic Hard Place
    • 6.2.2 Smart Grid Strategy needs better Balance and a Rethink on Priorities
  • 6.3 Regulatory Bodies & Policy Frameworks
  • 6.4 Smart Grid Communications - Analytical & Security Software
    • 6.4.1 Communications
    • 6.4.2 Securing the Grid
  • 6.5 Accommodating Renewables - The Importance of Storage & Distributed Power
  • 6.6 Distributed Energy - Micro-Grids & Micro-Generation
  • 6.7 Interfacing Smart Grid & Micro-Grid with Energy Management Systems & HAN
    • 6.7.1 Home Area Networks (HAN)
    • 6.7.2 Energy Management Systems (EMS)
  • 6.8 Smart Buildings - Smart Grid Interface Systems Market Size

7. M&A Performance & Valuations in 2012 - Forecast to 2017

  • 7.1 The Progress of Consolidation & Outlook to 2017
    • 7.1.1 Consolidation in 2012 was Unprecedented
    • 7.1.2 Forecast of Merger & Acquisition Business to 2017
  • 7.2 Valuation - Exit Multiples & Drivers
    • 7.2.1 Performance of Exit Multiples 2005 to 2012

8. Analyzing M&A Strategy

  • 8.1 The New Industry Model Will Determine the Future Shape of Consolidation
  • 8.2 How Did Consolidation Shape Up in 2012?
    • 8.2.1 The Top 5 Acquisitions in 2012
    • 8.2.2 The Top 5 Acquisitive Companies During 2010 to 2012
    • 8.2.3 M&A Analyzed by Business Segment 2010 to 2012
    • 8.2.4 Internal Strategic Buys
    • 8.2.5 External Strategic Buys
    • 8.2.6 IPO's & Private Equity

9. The Investment Market

  • 9.1 The State of the Investment Business & Exposure to the Smart Grid Industry
    • 9.1.1 Impact on the Smart Grid Industry
  • 9.2 Investors in the Smart Grid Industry & Recipients
  • 9.3 Government Assistance & Stimulus Grants
  • 9.3.1 Government Funding - An Important Driver of Growth

10. Identifying Potential Merger & Acquisition Targets & Entry through Alliance

  • 10.1 Potential Acquisition Targets
  • 10.2 Alliance - The Precursor of Merger & Acquisition

APPENDIX

  • A 1.1 - Venture Capital Investment in Smart Grid Companies (2011-2012)
  • A 1.2 - M&A Activity & Deals Involving Smart Grid Companies (2011-2012)
  • A 1.3 - Potential Acquisition Targets 2013
  • A 1.4 - The World's Major Smart Grid Companies by Size and Category
  • A 1.5 - Listing of Venture Capitalists Active in the Smart Grid Market

LIST OF CHARTS AND FIGURES

  • Fig 2.1 - Average Revenue for Group A, B & C Companies ($m)
  • Fig 2.2 - Distribution of Sales by Major Grouping by Value
  • Fig 2.3 - Distribution of Sales by Major Grouping by Number of Companies
  • Fig 3.1 - Electrical Power Generating Capacity by Country (Gigawatts) 2010
  • Fig 3.2 - Worlds Largest Producers of Electricity through Wind Power 2009 / 2010
  • Fig 3.2 - World Electric Power Transmission & Distribution Equipment 2010 / 2012 ($b)
  • Fig 4.1 - World Smart Grid Sales for AMI from 2010 to 2017 ($b)
  • Fig 4.2 - World Smart Grid Sales for the Transmission Network from 2010 to 2017 ($b)
  • Fig 4.3 - World Smart Grid Sales for the Distribution Network from 2010 to 2017 ($b)
  • Fig 4.4 - World Smart Grid Sales for Consumer Interfaces from 2010 to 2017 ($b)
  • Fig 4.5 - Smart Grid World Investment at Full Potential ($b)
  • Fig 4.6 - Total World Smart Grid Sales from 2010 to 2030
  • Fig 4.7 - Smart Grid Investment Potential by Country and Product Sectors at Installed Prices ($m)
  • Fig 4.8 - Pure Smart Grid Sales by Country from 2010 to 2030
  • Fig 4.9 - World Smart Grid Sales for the Transmission Network 2010 and Forecast to 2030
  • Fig 4.10 - World Smart Grid Sales for the Distribution Network 2010 and Forecast to 2030
  • Fig 4.11 - World Smart Grid Sales for AMI 2010 and Forecast to 2030
  • Fig 4.12 - World Smart Meter Installations by Region 2011 & Forecasts to 2020
  • Fig 4.13 - World Smart Grid Sales for Consumer Interfaces 2010 & Forecasts to 2020
  • Fig 6.1 - Total World Market Size for Smart Building Smart Grid Interface Products & Systems 2010 - 2030
  • Fig 7.1 - Smart Grid Deals Completed from 2007 to 2012
  • Fig 7.2a - Smart Grid Deals by Value & Forecast to 2017
  • Fig 7.2b - Smart Grid Deals by Volume & Forecast to 2017
  • Fig 7.3 - Acquisition Valuation Benchmarks 2006 - 2012 & Forecast 2013
  • Fig 8.1 - Acquisitions by Product Group 2010 / 2011 / 2012
  • Fig 9.1 - VC Funding in Smart Grid in 2012
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