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OLED Lighting Market Forecasts 2013

Abstract

SUMMARY

NanoMarkets has been actively tracking the emerging OLED lighting sector now for more than six years, and this report is the latest in our ongoing series of industry analysis of the sector. In the report, we quantify the market opportunities for OLED lighting over the next eight years by providing granular volume and revenue forecasts for both OLED lighting panels and downstream OLED luminaires.

As part of our analysis, we assess the OLED lighting supply chain, and we predict the likely pathways and time frames for commercialization of OLED lighting in different applications. We consider how the industry's latest commercialization strategies and technical developments are influencing the prospects of this emerging market, and we examine the key players. Applications for OLED lighting covered by this report include: luxury consumer lighting, decorative lighting for large buildings and showrooms, office lighting, residential lighting and automotive lighting.

The OLED lighting market continues to evolve from its earliest days of luxury luminaires and show pieces. Today, office lighting is expected to become a critical entry point for widespread commercialization, and automotive and residential lighting also represent major potential markets. To realize the potential, however, several challenges remain, including the needs for performance improvements, standardization, cost reductions, capacity expansion, and development of demand-side market pull.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • E.1 Introduction
    • E.1.1 Major Changes from Our 2012 Forecast
    • E.1.2 Three Scenarios for OLED Lighting
  • E.2 Ensuring Scenario 1 and Getting Into General Illumination Markets
  • E.3 Players to Watch
    • E.3.1 LG to the Rescue
    • E.3.1 Is China Next in Line?
    • E.3.2 Other Firms to Watch
  • E.4 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting Markets
    • E.4.1 Comparison of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 Forecasts
    • E.4.2 Details of the Scenario 1 Forecast
    • E.4.3 Details of the Scenario 2 Forecast

Chapter One: Introduction

  • 1.1 Background to this Report: Is this the End of OLED Lighting?
    • 1.1.1 Will Anyone Invest in New Capacity?
    • 1.1.2 Scenario 1: OLED Lighting Prevails
    • 1.1.3 Scenario 2: OLED Lighting as a Niche
    • 1.1.4 Scenario 3: The Death of OLEDs
  • 1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
  • 1.3 Methodology and Information Sources
  • 1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Commercialization of OLED Lighting - Challenges and Addressable Markets

  • 2.1 The Evolution of OLED Lighting Performance Specifications
    • 2.1.1 The Days of Rapid Development May Be Over
    • 2.1.2 Efficiency, Lifetimes, and Luminance
    • 2.1.3 Increasing Panel Size
  • 2.2 Other Challenges to Commercialization of OLED Lighting
    • 2.2.1 Cost Issues
    • 2.2.2 Standardization of Panels and Fixtures
    • 2.2.3 Developing New Markets for OLED Lighting and the Importance of Design
  • 2.3 Addressable Markets for OLEDs
    • 2.3.1 Designer and Sample Kits
    • 2.3.2 Luxury Luminaires and Designer Showpieces-Limited Markets
    • 2.3.3 Getting into General Illumination Markets
    • 2.3.4 Automotive Applications for OLED Lighting
  • 2.4 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Three: Analysis of the OLED Lighting Supply Chain

  • 3.1 Introduction
    • 3.1.1 The Need for a Market Champion
    • 3.1.2 Manufacturing Capacity in OLED Lighting
  • 3.2 The Importance of the European Market for Growth in OLED Lighting
  • 3.3 The Rise of the OLED Lighting Supply Chain in Asia
    • 3.3.1 LG Will Take the Lead
    • 3.3.2 OLED Lighting Capacity in China
    • 3.3.3 The Future of Japanese OLED Lighting Powerhouses
  • 3.4 Thoughts on the American Market
  • 3.5 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Lighting

  • 4.1 Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions
    • 4.1.1 What Happened? Why 2012 was So Boring for the OLED Lighting Sector
    • 4.1.2 The Investment Picture: OLED Lighting Not as Bright as It Once Was
    • 4.1.3 NanoMarkets' OLED Lighting Forecast: A New Approach
    • 4.1.4 General Methodology Remains the Same
    • 4.1.5 Scope of the Forecast
    • 4.1.6 Data Sources
    • 4.1.7 Assumptions About Panel Sizes in Scenarios 1 and 2
    • 4.1.8 Assumptions About Costs and Prices in Scenarios 1 and 2
    • 4.1.9 General Economic Assumptions
  • 4.2 Forecasts for OLED Lighting by Application
    • 4.2.1 Samples and Designer Kits
    • 4.2.2 Luxury Lighting Luminaires
    • 4.2.3 Large-Scale OLED Lighting Installations
    • 4.2.4 Residential Lighting Applications
    • 4.2.5 Office Lighting and Other Commercial or Industrial Lighting
    • 4.2.6 Automotive and Other Transportation Lighting Using OLEDs
    • 4.2.7 Other, Specialty Applications for OLED Lighting
  • 4.3 Summaries of Market Forecasts in this Chapter
    • 4.3.1 Summary of Scenario 1 Forecasts for OLED Lighting
    • 4.3.2 Summary of Scenario 2 Forecasts for OLED Lighting
    • 4.3.3 A Comparison of NanoMarkets' Scenario 1 and 2 Forecasts for OLED Lighting

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report

About the Author

List of Exhibits

  • Exhibit E-1: Factors That Will Influence the Ability of OLED Lighting to Achieve a "High-Growth" Scenario 1
  • Exhibit E-2: Prospects for Other Major Firms in the OLED Space
  • Exhibit E-3: Comparison of the Three Scenarios for the OLED Lighting Market 2013-2020
  • Exhibit E-4: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Panels in a High-Growth Scenario 1, in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit E-5: Summary of Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Panels in a Low-Growth Scenario 2, in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 2-1: Overview of OLED Lighting "State-of-the-Art" Technical Characteristics
  • Exhibit 2-2: Overview of OLED Lighting "State-of-the-Art" Technical Characteristics
  • Exhibit 2-3: Significant Cost Barriers in Manufacturing of OLED Lighting
  • Exhibit 2-4: Progress on Establishing Standards in OLED Lighting
  • Exhibit 3-1: Likely Contenders for OLED Lighting Industry Champion
  • Exhibit 3-2: Eight-Year Forecast of Estimated Global OLED Lighting Capacity in a High-Growth Scenario 1 in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 3-3: Eight-Year Forecast of Estimated Global OLED Lighting Capacity in a Low-Growth Scenario 2 in Which Cost & Performance Targets are NOT Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 3-5: Key OLED Lighting Panel and Luminaire Firms in Japan
  • Exhibit 3-6: Selected OLED Lighting Panel and Luminaire Firms in North America
  • Exhibit 4-1: Average OLED Lighting Panel Sizes 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-2: Average OLED Lighting Costs, Markup, and Prices in the High-Growth Scenario (1), in which Targeted Cost Reductions Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-3: Average OLED Lighting Costs, Markup, and Prices in the Low-Growth Scenario (2) in which Targeted Cost Reductions are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-4: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting Panels in Designer Kits and Individual Samples in a High-Growth Scenario (1) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-5: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting Panels in Designer Kits and Individual Samples in a Low Growth Scenario (2) In Which Cost & Performance Targets are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-6: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Luxury Luminaires in a High-Growth Scenario (1) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-7: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Luxury Luminaires in a Low-Growth (2) Scenario in Which Cost & Performance Targets are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-8: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Large-Scale Installations, Demonstration/Show Room Projects, Prestige Signage, Trade Show Exhibits, & Related in a High-Growth Scenario (1) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-9: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Large-Scale Installations, Demonstration/Show Room Projects, Prestige Signage, Trade Show Exhibits, & Related in a Low-Growth Scenario (2) in Which Cost & Performance Targets are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-10: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Residential Applications in a High-Growth Scenario(1) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-11: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Residential Applications in a Low-Growth Scenario (2) in Which Cost & Performance Targets are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-12: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Office, Commercial, & Industrial Lighting Applications in a High-Growth Scenario (1) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-13: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Office, Commercial, & Industrial Lighting Applications in a Low-Growth Scenario (2) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-14: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Automotive Applications in a High-Growth Scenario (1) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-15: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Automotive Applications in a Low-Growth Scenario (2) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-16: Other Potential Applications for OLED Lighting
  • Exhibit 4-17: Summary of Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Panels in a High-Growth Scenario (1) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-18: Summary of Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting (Kits, Fixtures, Installations) in a High-Growth Scenario (1) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-19: Summary of Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Panels in a Low-Growth Scenario (2) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-20: Summary of Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting (Kits, Fixtures, Installations) in a Low-Growth Scenario(2) in Which Cost & Performance Targets Are Not Achieved 2013-2020
  • Exhibit 4-21: Comparison of the High-Growth (Scenario 1) & Low-Growth (Scenario 2) Forecasts for the OLED Lighting Market 2013-2020
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