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Global Oil Reserves and Shale Oil Reserves Ed 1 2012

Shale Oil

This NRG Expert product provides a full analysis of the shale oil market. While shale gas has re-ceived a lot of column inches, so has another shale hydrocarbon- shale oil. Although strictly not an ‘oil' and ‘shale', oil shale is a fine-grain sedimentary rock containing significant amounts of an organic bituminous material known as kerogen that can be a precursor to conventional oil and ‘converted' into shale oil.

To date production of shale oil has been mainly restricted to periods in history when oil supplies were constrained or expected to be constrained or when governments supported the sector. For example, interest in shale oil projects was high during and after wars due to concern over possible supply constraints. After the 1973 oil embargo a reduction in oil supplies resulted in many countries exploring and producing domestic shale oil.

Oil Prices

High oil prices have made expensive shale oil projects more attractive, but the volatility of oil prices have made it risky to invest in expensive projects that require a high oil price to be profitable. Oil prices are projected to rise, which may make projects profitable in the long-term, particularly in countries keen to increase domestic oil production. Competition from conventional oil and unconven-tional and frontier gas is a significant risk, for example oil sands and deep offshore gas. However, as OPEC oil is expected to continue to dominate the oil markets, countries with oil shale reserves may be keen to develop, at least some domestic oil industry.

The US

The US has by far and away the most shale oil reserves, but the industry is not developed. Other countries with fewer reserves, Brazil, Estonia and China, have commercial shale oil production. Most of these projects are surface mining projects such as the Fushun Mining Group's Fushun Enerfit's Enefit and Petrobras' Petrosix retorts with a higher environmental impact than less developed in situ technologies. There is a drive towards the use of in situ technologies to meet environmental legisla-tion, particularly in the US.

Shale oil produced from these projects is just one source of revenue for project developers. Other products from oil shale include cosmetic ingredients, cement, chemicals found in the shale such as uranium and phosphate for fertiliser. These products could provide an additional source of revenue for as companies commercialise in situ technologies and whilst shale oil projects are operational.

Over the coming years the development on the industry will be challenged by other sources of oil; fluctuating oil prices; environmental opposition and environmental legislations including water usage. But with oil prices projected to remain high and the additional revenue streams available for oil shale, the high costs involved may be justified.

How can NRG Expert Help?

NRG Expert's Global Oil Reserves and Shale Oil Report Ed 1 2012 is a fully comprehensive report on the global shale oil markets.

This report includes:

  • World oil and gas reserves
  • The definition of reserves
  • Unconventional and frontier oil and gas reserves
  • Oil supply and demand
  • Oil Prices
  • Projected oil demand and supply
  • The economics
  • The major countries
  • Oil companies - large and small
  • The environment

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. World Oil and Gas Reserves

3. Definitions of Reserves

  • Some different definitions in use worldwide
  • SPE/WPC Definitions of Reserves
    • Definitions of oil and gas reserves
    • Deterministic and probabilistic estimation of reserves
    • Proved reserves
    • Proved, proved undeveloped reserves
    • Unproved Reserves
    • Unproved Probable Reserves
    • Unproved Possible Reserves
  • Comparison of using different methods of calculating reserves
  • Calculations to determine reserve values
    • The volumetric method
    • Decline curve analysis
    • External factors affecting reserves

4. What are the oil reserves of the world?

5. Unconventional and Frontier Oil and Gas Sources

6. Oil Supply and Demand

  • Sanctions on Iran
    • US
    • EU
    • UN

7. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

8. Oil Prices

9. Projected Oil Demand and Supply

  • Short-term
  • Mid-term
  • Long-term

10. Oil Shale,Shale Oil & Oil from Oil Shale (‘Tight Oil')

  • Oil Shale & Shale Oil
  • Oil from Oil Shale - a type of ‘tight oil'
    • Horizontal drilling
    • Hydraulic fracturing
  • Definitions
  • Other Products

11. Economics

12. Countries

  • North America
    • Canada
    • USA
    • Shale oil
  • Europe
    • Estonia
    • France
    • Germany
    • Serbia
    • Sweden
    • UK
  • CIS
    • Kazakhstan
    • Russia
  • Asia Pacific
    • Australia
    • China
    • India
    • Indonesia
    • Mongolia
    • Thailand
  • Middle East
    • Egypt
    • Israel
    • Jordan
    • Morocco
    • Syria
    • Tunisia
    • Turkey
  • Africa
    • Ethiopia
    • Nigeria
  • Central and South America
    • Argentina
    • Brazil
    • Uruguay

13. Selected companies involved in the shale oil sector

  • Independent/Small oil companies
    • American Shale Oil LLC (AMSO)
    • AuraSource
    • Blue Ensign Technologies
    • Boss Energy
    • Entek
    • Enefit
    • EnShale (a subsidiary of Bullion Monarch Mining)
    • EOG Resources
    • Greenvale Mining NL
    • Hom Tov
    • Jordan Energy & Mining (JEML)
    • Jordan Oil Shale Company (JOSCo)
    • Israel Energy Initiatives (IEI)
    • Mountain West Energy
    • Natural Soda Holdings (a subsidiary of Natural Resources Corporation)
    • Occidental Petroleum
    • Oil Shale Exploration Company (OSEC), now part of Enefit
    • Petsec Energy
    • Queensland Energy Resources (QER)
    • Rosetta Resources
    • Red Leaf Resources
    • San Leon Energy
    • Shale Technologies
    • Toreador Resources Corporation
    • VKG Oil part of the Viru Keemia Grupp
    • Xtract Energy
  • Large, multinational oil companies
    • Chevron
    • ConocoPhillips
    • ExxonMobil
    • Marathon Oil Corporation
    • Petrobras
    • Shell
    • Statoil
    • Total

14. Enviroment

  • Oil shale and shale oil
  • Tight Oil

15. Sources

Tables

  • Table 4-1: Comparison of two sets of reported oil reserves for the top ten countries from the Oil and Gas Journal and the BP Statistical Review, billion barrels
  • Table 5-1: Frontier resources and unconventional oil and gas
  • Table 8-1: Oil prices
  • Table 10-1: Companies, production processes and project status
  • Table 10-2: Ex situ shale oil production technologies
  • Table 10-3: In situ shale oil processes
  • Table 12-1: Countries ranked by in place oil shale resources, million barrels
  • Table 12-2: US Technically RecoverableOil from Oil Shale Resources Summary
  • Table 12-3: Comparison of US shale plays
  • Table 12-4: Enbridge and TransCanada's planned Bakken oil from shale projects
  • Table 12-5: ICHTHYOL-GESELLSCHAFT's products derived from oil shale
  • Table 12-6: Significant resources of a variety of trace elements in the alum shales in Finland
  • Table 12-7: Oil shale resources in China
  • Table 12-8: ONHYM partnerships for oil shale in Morocco
  • Table 13-1: Eesti Energia's oil shale experience in Estonia
  • Table 13-2: Enefit's sales volumes of oil shale for 2009 and 2010
  • Table 13-3: Table: Participating interests in Greenvale's oil shale projects

Figures

  • Figure 3-1: Annual backdated conventional oil discovery, conventional oil consumption and forecasted production and discovery
  • Figure 3-2: Proven global oil reserves, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010
  • Figure 3-3: R/P ratio for global oil reserves, years, 1980 to 2010
  • Figure 4-1: Conventional oil reserves, billion barrels, 2010
  • Figure 4-2: Top ten countries by oil reserves including oil sands, billion barrels, 2010
  • Figure 4-3: Oil reserves reported in the top ten countries by source of data, billion barrels
  • Figure 6-1: Oil production and consumption, thousand barrels per day per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 6-2: Oil refining capacity, throughput and oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 6-3: Top ten oil producing countries, thousand barrels per day per day, 2010
  • Figure 6-4: Non-OECD and OECD oil production and demand, thousand barrels per day per day, 2010
  • Figure 6-5: Oil production and consumption by region, thousand barrels per day per day, 2010
  • Figure 6-6: Top ten oil consuming countries, thousand barrels per day per day, 2010
  • Figure 7-1: Oil prices and key events, USD per barrels at 2010 prices, 1950 to 2010
  • Figure 7-2: Annual OPEC basket reference prices, USD per barrel, 1998 to 2011
  • Figure 7-3: Monthly OPEC basket reference prices, USD per barrel, September 2010 to October 2011
  • Figure 7-4: Member Countries' Crude Oil Production Allocations, thousand barrels per day per day
  • Figure 7-5: OPEC countries share of proven crude oil reserves, end 2010, billion barrels
  • Figure 7-6: Oil production in thousand barrels per day and proven reserves in billion barrels in OPEC and major non-OPEC countries at the end of 2010
  • Figure 7-7: Proven oil reserves in North America and in Major European producing countries, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010
  • Figure 7-8: OPEC and non-OPEC cumulative crude oil production and net reserve additions, billion barrels, 2001 to 2010
  • Figure 7-9: Proven oil reserves by region, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010
  • Figure 8-1: Spot crude prices, USD per barrel, 1972 to 2010
  • Figure 8-2: Crude oil prices and events, USD 2010 per barrel, 1950 to 2010
  • Figure 8-3: Historical and projected WTI and Brent crude prices, USD per barrel, 1987 to 2025
  • Figure 8-4: Average IEA crude oil import price (annual data), USD per barrel, 1970 to 2030
  • Figure 8-5: Average annual world oil prices for the EIA's three scenarios for oil prices, USD per barrel 2009, 1980-2035
  • Figure 8-6: Refining margins in US Gulf Coast (USGC), North West Europe (NWE - Rotterdam) and Singapore for different generic refinery configuration (cracking, hydrocracking or coking), USD per barrel, Q1 1992 to Q4 2010
  • Figure 8-7: Revenue from a litre of oil in the G7 countries, 2009, USD per litre
  • Figure 9-1: World oil demand and supply, million barrels per day, 2006 to 2012
  • Figure 9-2: OECD and non-OECD oil demand, million barrels per day, 2006 to 2012
  • Figure 9-3: OPEC and non-OPEC supply, million barrels per day, 2006 to 2012
  • Figure 9-4: Historical and projected growth in demand for oil in the OECD and non-OECD, million barrels per day, 1970 to 2030
  • Figure 9-5: Fuel share in total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2035 for the IEA's Current Policy Scenario and 450 Policy Scenario
  • Figure 9-6: World primary energy demand by fuel in the IEA's reference scenario, Mtoe, 1980 to 2030
  • Figure 9-7: Historical and projected OPEC and non-OPEC oil supply, million barrels per day, 1980 to 2040
  • Figure 9-8: Total liquids production by source in the EIA's Reference case, 2000 to 2035 (million barrels per day)
  • Figure 10-1: Pad drilling and conventional vertical well drilling
  • Figure 10-2: Hydraulic fracturing
  • Figure 10-3: Products that can be produced from oil shale in Jordan
  • Figure 11-1: Resources to Reserves - Production Cost Curve (including a carbon tax of USD 50 per tonne CO2 equivalent emissions), USD per barrel
  • Figure 11-2: Shale oil and crude oil production costs, USD per barrel
  • Figure 11-3: Production costs for conventional oil, shale oil and extra, USD 2008 per GJ
  • Figure 11-4: Historical and future Brent oil prices, USD per barrel, 1982 to 2026
  • Figure 12-1: Oil shale mined from deposits in Brazil, China, Estonia, Germany, Russia and Scotland, 1880 to 2000
  • Figure 12-2: Oil shale production in the three producing countries, thousand barrels per day per
  • Figure 12-3: Estimated shale oil deposits worldwide
  • Figure 12-4: In place oil shale resources by region, billion barrels
  • Figure 12-5: Percentage reserves of oil shale at the country level
  • Figure 12-6: Top ten countries for in place oil shale resources, billion barrels
  • Figure 12-7: Canada Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-8: Canada Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-9: Canada Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-10: USA Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-11: USA Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-12: USA Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-13: Green River Formation in the US
  • Figure 12-14: 2010 2nd round nominations and 2007 leases for oil shale research, development demonstration 160 acres and preference acreage
  • Figure 12-15: INTEK estimates of undeveloped technically recoverable oil from oil shale resources remaining in discovered shale plays as of January 2009
  • Figure 12-16: Map of US shale gas and shale oil (oil from oil shale) plays as of May 2011
  • Figure 12-17: Shale oil Companies with shale oil leases
  • Figure 12-18: Tight oil production for selected plays in the US, thousand barrels of oil per day, 2000 to Nov 2011
  • Figure 12-19: Oil and gas rotary rig count in the US, 17th July 1987 to 30th March 2012
  • Figure 12-20: Annual US oil production, million barrels of oil per day, 1990 to 2011
  • Figure 12-21: Projected development of shale oil production in the US, million barrels of oil per day, 2005 to 2035
  • Figure 12-22: Baltic oil shale deposit
  • Figure 12-23: Estonia's oil shale projects
  • Figure 12-24: France Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-25: France Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-26: Germany Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-27: Germany Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-28: Sweden Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-29: Sweden Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-30: Alum shale deposits in Sweden
  • Figure 12-31: UK Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-32: UK Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-33: UK Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-34: Kazakhstan Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-35: Kazakhstan Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1985 to 2010
  • Figure 12-36: Kazakhstan Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-37: Russia Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-38: Russia Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1985 to 2010
  • Figure 12-39: Russia Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-40: Australia Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-41: Australia Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-42: Australia Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-43: Distribution of indicated shale oil resources in Australia
  • Figure 12-44: Occurrence of oil shale in Australia
  • Figure 12-45: China Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-46: China Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-47: China Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-48: Alberta Taciuk Process (ATP)
  • Figure 12-49: India Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-50: India Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-51: India Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-52: Indonesia Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-53: Indonesia Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-54: Indonesia Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-55: Thailand Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-56: Thailand Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-57: Thailand Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-58: Egypt Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010 Egypt:
  • Figure 12-59: Egypt Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 Egypt
  • Figure 12-60: Egypt Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010 Egypt:
  • Figure 12-61: Israel Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010 Israel:
  • Figure 12-62: Israel Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010 Israel:
  • Figure 12-63: Location of oil shale deposits in Jordan
  • Figure 12-64: Location of oil shales in Morocco
  • Figure 12-65: Location map of the Cenomanian-Turonian oil shale deposits in Morocco with their depositional paleoenvironments
  • Figure 12-66: Syria Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-67: Turkey Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-68: Turkey Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 12-69: Nigeria Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-70: Argentina Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-71: Argentina Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-72: Brazil Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, December 2010:
  • Figure 12-73: Brazil Oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010
  • Figure 12-74: Brazil Primary energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe and %, 2010:
  • Figure 13-1: AMSO's preference right area in the Piceance Basin in the Green River Formation
  • Figure 13-2: AMSO's CCRTM (Conduction, Convection, Reflux) process for oil shale production
  • Figure 13-3: Rendall Process
  • Figure 13-4: Eesti Energia's oil shale mines in Estonia
  • Figure 13-5: The production of electricity from oil shale
  • Figure 13-6: Enefit's worldwide oil shale projects for oil and power production
  • Figure 13-7: EOG Resources' acreage in the Bakken, Eagle Ford plays
  • Figure 13-8: Liquids (Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids) and Natural Gas weighting in the country's revenue mix for North America
  • Figure 13-9: Greenvale Mining's oil shale projects
  • Figure 13-10: Flow scheme for the ATP system and related facilities
  • Figure 13-11: ATP Processor Schematic
  • Figure 13-12: In-situ Vapour Extraction (IVE)
  • Figure 13-13: Paraho IITM vertical kiln
  • Figure 13-14: Rosetta Resources' shale plays
  • Figure 13-15: San Leon Energy's Tarfaya oil shale project
  • Figure 13-16: Toreador's acreage in France
  • Figure 13-17: ZaZa Energy's acreage in Texas
  • Figure 13-18: Toreador and ZaZa Energy's plans for rig deployment, 2011 to 2013
  • Figure 13-19: ElectrofracTM
  • Figure 13-20: Conductive fractures (left) compared to wellbore heaters (right)
  • Figure 13-21: Post production flushing
  • Figure 13-22: Co-location of shale oil and tight gas production
  • Figure 13-23: Marathon Oil's acreage in the Bakken play
  • Figure 13-24: Marathon Oil's acreage in the Eagle Ford shale play
  • Figure 13-25: Marathon Oil's acreage in the Niobrara shale play
  • Figure 13-26: Marathon Oil's acreage in the Anadarko Woodford shale play
  • Figure 13-27: Marathon's shale liquid plays in the US
  • Figure 13-28: Marathon Oil's projected oil production, million barrels of oil per day, 2010 to 2016
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