Norson China Market Series: IN LIKE A LION and OUT LIKE A LAMB 2004 Prospects for the China PHS Market & UTStarcom

This publication has been discontinued on July 19, 2011.

Introduction

PHS (Personal Handyphone System) is a Japanese-developed limited mobility technology that became popular in Japan in the mid-1990s as a cheaper option to standard mobile services despite its lower signal quality. Dropping mobile tariffs in Japan, however, resulted in churn away from PHS and permanently stunted PHS user growth.

In 1998, the technology was introduced in China to fill a similar market niche - a low price option to GSM and CDMA services. A regulatory loophole allows fixed-line operators China Telecom and China Netcom to capitalize on China's "mobile revolution", by offering PHS services at fixed-line prices. Although PHS signal quality issues persist, PHS tariffs can be 75% below standard GSM/CDMA tariffs. As a result, the number of PHS users in China - now approaching 50 million - has exploded, with well over 2 million new PHS users being added each month.  PHS came into 2004 like a lion, adding an unprecedented 8 million new PHS subscribers in February and March alone.

To accommodate the rapid growth in PHS subscribers, China Telecom and China Netcom spent heavily on largescale PHS network construction in 2003. PHS infrastructure investment peaked in Q1 2003 and held strong throughout the year, reaching capacity utilization rates of only 66% at the close of 2003. With capacity largely in place and the prospect of 3G service launches still over one year away, China Telecom and China Netcom are continuing limited network expansions, while working to bring more users onto PHS networks in order to realize a quick return on their PHS investments before shifting attention and investment to 3G later this year.

Rapid growth in PHS users and the resulting groundswell in demand for PHS handsets over the past year have attracted over 25 domestic PHS handset producers that now offer more than 100 different PHS models in all price ranges. Given the increased competition, which includes well-known brands such as Huawei and Amoi, average handset prices in 2004 are set to decline 10-15%, meaning that despite a forecast YOY increase in units sold, the total value of the PHS handset market in 2004 will likely contract.

Overcoming policy barriers and posting continuous rapid growth, PHS has continually found ways to provide upside surprises to critics and those skeptical concerning PHS prospects in China (including Norson). The delay of 3G license issuance until 2005, for example, has given PHS in China an additional year of breathing room for continued operator investment and subscriber growth, particularly in first-tier developed markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong. Despite coming into 2004 like a lion, however, Norson believes PHS will go out of 2004 like a lamb.

From the outset, UTStarcom has dominated the PHS market in China; by the same token, ever-escalating revenues from PHS in China have dominated UTStarcom revenue books. Ever in step with the PHS market, UTStarcom will also come into 2004 like a lion. But as the year progresses, Norson forecasts that UTStarcom will likely have to face the prospect of reduced investment in PHS infrastructure and settle for a reduced share of a contracting handset pie. Further, we have yet to see any real traction developing on UTStarcom sales of non-PHS products in the China market. UTStarcom's entrenched position as the PHS leader that enjoys unrivalled operator relations and PHS economies of scale assures the vendor of a reduced but still respectable year in the market, but UTStarcom will likely have to look overseas for deliverance if it hopes to gracefully make it through the coming dry period in 2004 China sales.

Table of Content

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHAPTER 1: Introduction to the PHS Market in China

• 1.1 Introduction to PHS Technology
• 1.2 Major Players in the PHS Market

CHAPTER 2. PHS Subscriber Development

• 2.1 The Demographic Structure of PHS Subscribers
• 2.2 PHS Subscriber Development
• 2.3 Distribution of PHS Subscribers

CHAPTER 3: China PHS Fixed Line Operator Strategy

• 3.1 PHS Infrastructure Investment
• 3.2 PHS Value-Added Services Strategies
• 3.3 Operator PHS Strategies in the Transition to 3G

CHAPTER 4: PHS Infrastructure Market Analysis

• 4.1 PHS Network Capacity Development
• 4.2 PHS Infrastructure Vendor Competition
• 4.3 Infrastructure Growth Opportunities in 2004

CHAPTER 5: PHS Handset Market Analysis

• 5.1 Handset Market Landscape
• 5.2 PHS Handset Vendors Divided by Type
• 5.3 Handset Market Changes in 2004

CHAPTER 6: Forecast for China PHS Market in 2004

• 6.1 2004 PHS Market Size Forecast

CHAPTER 7: UTStarcom 2004 Prospects in China's PHS Market

• 7.1 Company Overview
  • 7.1.1 Introduction
  • 7.1.2 UTStarcom Key PHS Competitors
  • 7.1.3 UTStarcom Key Strengths
• 7.2 UTStarcom in the PHS Infrastructure Market
• 7.3 UTStarcom in the PHS Handset Market
• 7.4 Threats to UTStarcom in China's PHS Market 2004
• 7.5 Analysis of UTStarcom PHS Revenue Q1 2003-Q1 2004
• 7.6 A Forecast for UTStarcom 2004 PHS Revenue from the China Market
• 7.7 Conclusion

Exhibits

• Exhibit 1-1: The Place of PHS in the 3-Generation Evolution of Mobile Communication Systems
• Exhibit 1-2: An Overview of Relations between Major Players in China's PHS Market
• Exhibit 1-3: Government, Operators, Vendors: the Development of PHS 2001-2004
• Exhibit 1-4: Progressive Loosening of Chinese Government Policy concerning PHS 1998-2004
• Exhibit 1-5: A Comparison of Typical Tariffs for PHS, GSM, and CDMA by Operator
• Exhibit 2-1: Geographic and Economic Division of China into 4 Representative Tiers
• Exhibit 2-2: Demographic Comparison of PHS vs. Standard Mobile Subscriber
• Exhibit 2-3: PHS Yearly User Growth 2000-2004
• Exhibit 2-4: PHS Monthly User Growth from December 2003 to March 2004
• Exhibit 2-5: Distribution of PHS Subscribers by Province
• Exhibit 3-1: Operator Investment in PHS Infrastructure 2000-2004
• Exhibit 3-2: PHS Capacity by Operator
• Exhibit 4-1: Total PHS Capacity Growth 2001-2004F
• Exhibit 4-2: Network Capacity by Province Year-end 2003
• Exhibit 4-3: Monthly Growth in Network Capacity by Operator Oct. 2003 - Mar. 2004
• Exhibit 4-4: Cumulative PHS Infrastructure Market Share by Vendor Year-end 2003
• Exhibit 4-5: A Comparative Look at PHS Infrastructure Vendors
• Exhibit 4-6: PHS Network Capacity Utilization Rate by Province
• Exhibit 5-1: 2002-2004 PHS Handset Market Size
• Exhibit 5-2: List of 25 Domestic PHS Handset Vendors
• Exhibit 5-3: Why Domestic Vendors are Still Getting into the PHS Handset Market
• Exhibit 5-4: PHS Handset Vendors Categorized by Type
• Exhibit 5-5: The Emerging Role of New Vendors and Agents in PHS Handset Sales
• Exhibit 6-1: 2004 PHS Market Development Forecast
• Exhibit 6-2: PHS Subscribers and System Capacity 2003-2004
• Exhibit 6-3: PHS Infrastructure and Handset Market Size 2003-2004
• Exhibit 7-1: UTStarcom Key PHS Infrastructure and Handset Competitors
• Exhibit 7-2: UTStarcom's 4-Product History 1995-2005
• Exhibit 7-3: UTStarcom: A Sales Platform into China and Business Partner for Chinese Operators
• Exhibit 7-4: PHS Infrastructure Percentage Vendor Market Share (as of Feb. 2004)
• Exhibit 7-5: PHS Network Coverage by Vendors
• Exhibit 7-6: Infrastructure Market Dominance by Vendor at the Provincial Level
• Exhibit 7-7: Key 2004 Growth Provinces by Vendor
• Exhibit 7-8: Handset Market Share in 2003 and 2004
• Exhibit.7-9: UTStarcom Strengths in the PHS Handset Market
• Exhibit 7-10: PHS Handset Sales Volume Statistics by Vendor 1Q 2004
• Exhibit 7-11: Comparative Analysis of UTStarcom and ZTE
• Exhibit 7-12: UTStarcom Estimated PHS Revenue by Quarter Q1 2003-Q1-2004
• Exhibit 7-13: UTStarcom Estimated PHS Revenue 2002-2003 and Forecast 2004

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