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Market Research Report

New Business Models For The Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf & Red Sea Submarine Fibre Optics Industry

Published by Pioneer Consulting
Published April, 2004 Product code 22850
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This publication has been discontinued on July 19, 2011.

Introduction

The first fleeting signs of a recovery in the worldwide submarine fibre optics industry have begun to appear. Restructured companies are emerging from bankruptcy protection and new installation projects are being proposed. However, the processes of consolidation and retrenchment continue and the profile of the revitalized worldwide market for submarine fibre optic cables is going to be rather different from the market which went from boom to bust between 1998 and 2003.

So where are the shoots of this recovery appearing ? Not on the traditional transatlantic route or the Europe Atlantic region where demand growth has yet to soak up the capacity installed in the boom years. Not in the Americas, where major intercontinental trunks have only a fraction of their design capacity lit. And not yet in Asia Pacific where Pioneer continues to predict that the next construction boom will occur.

The de-regulation of the Indian telecom market has attracted fresh capital and spawned a group of new operators with aggressive expansion plans. Furthermore, a number of countries in the Indian Ocean region have acknowledged that their current connections to the World Wide Web are not robust enough. Moreover, the current focus on events in the Persian Gulf is providing a subtle stimulus to plans for market liberalisation in this region, producing a flurry of announcements and rumoured new projects.

This 250-page report looks in detail at what is driving this activity and assesses the scale and type of submarine cable opportunities which exist in each region. Which countries will be the drivers of demand?  When will system upgrades take place and where will major new systems be required? Who will be the major players and what business models will be used to seize those opportunities ?

Using an improved methodology which enhances forecasts while maintaining continuity with previous Pioneer submarine reports, the Report provides analyses on a country-by-country basis and reveals how the balance between demand for and supply of submarine capacity in each country is likely to change over the next 10 years.

Pioneer has taken its proven demand methodology to new levels by providing easy-to-use profiles for each of the 21 countries covered, with detailed forecasts of multiple parameters. On the supply side, the Report contains profiles of all existing, planned, and proposed cables in the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, and Red Sea regions. All together, this Report represents Pioneerfs vision of the future for the region and clarifies where the opportunities lie for carriers, system suppliers, and marine contractors alike.

Countries covered in this report are:

Indian Ocean

  • Bangladesh
  • India
  • Maldives
  • Mauritius
  • Pakistan
  • Sri Lanka

Persian Gulf

  • Bahrain
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Jordan
  • Kuwait
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE

Red Sea

  • Djibouti
  • Egypt
  • Eritrea
  • Somalia
  • Sudan
  • Yemen

Cables profiled in this report are:

  • Aden-Djibouti
  • Bangladesh-India (Proposed)
  • Bangladesh-Singapore (Proposed)
  • Falcon
  • FLAG Europe-Asia
  • FOG
  • FOG-2 (Proposed)
  • i2i
  • India-Middle East
  • India-Singapore-Malaysia (Proposed)
  • India-Sri Lanka (Proposed)
  • Kuwait-Iran
  • Pakistan-India (Proposed)
  • Qatar-UAE
  • SAFE
  • SAS-1
  • SEA-ME-WE-2
  • SEA-ME-WE-3
  • SEA-ME-WE-4
  • TICSCS
  • TWA-1
  • UAE-Iran
  • UAE-Iran-2 (Proposed)

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Report aims
  • 1.2 Report structure and methodology
  • 1.3 Supply vs. Demand
    • 1.3.1 Intercontinental Demand
    • 1.3.2 Intra-Regional Demand
    • 1.3.3 Leading Countries
    • 1.3.4 Access Speed vs. Bandwidth Requirement
    • 1.3.5 Supply-Demand Balances
  • 1.4 Commercial Environments & Market Drivers
    • 1.4.1 Indian Ocean Region
    • 1.4.2 Persian Gulf Region
    • 1.4.3 Red Sea Region
    • 1.4.4 Market Drivers
  • 1.5 New Business Models
    • 1.5.1 Scope & Scale
    • 1.5.2 Ownership
    • 1.5.3 Financing

Chapter 2 - Introduction

  • 2.1 Purpose of the Report
  • 2.2 Report Scope
    • 2.2.1 Geography
    • 2.2.2 Market Segmentation
    • 2.2.3 Analysis & Forecasts
    • 2.2.4 Issues Addressed
  • 2.3 Methodology

Chapter 3 - Submarine Cable Connectivity

  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Regional Overview
    • 3.2.1 Intercontinental Connectivity
    • 3.2.2 Indian Ocean Regional Connectivity
    • 3.2.3 Persian Gulf Regional Connectivity
    • 3.2.4 Red Sea Regional Connectivity
  • 3.3 Asia-Europe Cables
    • 3.3.1 Bangladesh-Singapore (Proposed)
    • 3.3.2 Falcon
    • 3.3.3 FLAG Europe-Asia
    • 3.3.4 i2i
    • 3.3.5 India - Middle East
    • 3.3.6 India-Singapore-Malaysia (Proposed)
    • 3.3.7 SAFE
    • 3.3.8 SEA-ME-WE-2
    • 3.3.9 SEA-ME-WE-3
    • 3.3.10 SEA-ME-WE-4
    • 3.3.11 TICSCS
    • 3.3.12 TWA-1
  • 3.4 Indian Ocean Regional Cables
    • 3.4.1 Bangladesh - India (Proposed)
    • 3.4.2 India-Sri Lanka (Proposed)
    • 3.4.3 Pakistan - India (Proposed)
  • 3.5 Persian Gulf Regional Cable Profiles
    • 3.5.1 FOG
    • 3.5.2 FOG-2 (Proposed)
    • 3.5.3 Kuwait-Iran
    • 3.5.4 Qatar-UAE
    • 3.5.5 UAE-Iran
    • 3.5.6 UAE-Iran-2 (Proposed)
  • 3.6 Red Sea Regional Cable Profiles
    • 3.6.1 Aden-Djibouti
    • 3.6.2 SAS-1

Chapter 4 - Supply-Demand Forecasts

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Methodology & Assumptions
    • 4.2.1 Internet Methodology & Assumptions
    • 4.2.2 Corporate Data Demand Methodology & Assumptions
    • 4.2.3 Voice Traffic Demand Methodology & Assumptions
    • 4.2.4 Submarine Cable Capacity Supply Methodology & Assumptions
    • 4.2.5 Forecast Supply-Demand Balances Methodology & Assumptions
  • 4.3 Indian Ocean Country Profiles & Supply-Demand Forecasts
    • 4.3.1 Bangladesh
    • 4.3.2 India
    • 4.3.3 Maldives
    • 4.3.4 Mauritius
    • 4.3.5 Pakistan
    • 4.3.6 Sri Lanka
  • 4.4 Persian Gulf Country Profiles & Supply-Demand Forecasts
    • 4.4.1 Bahrain
    • 4.4.2 Iran
    • 4.4.3 Iraq
    • 4.4.4 Jordan
    • 4.4.5 Kuwait
    • 4.4.6 Oman
    • 4.4.7 Qatar
    • 4.4.8 Saudi Arabia
    • 4.4.9 UAE
  • 4.5 Red Sea Country Profiles & Supply-Demand Forecasts
    • 4.5.1 Djibouti
    • 4.5.2 Egypt
    • 4.5.3 Eritrea
    • 4.5.4 Somalia
    • 4.5.5 Sudan
    • 4.5.6 Yemen
  • 4.6 Regional Supply-Demand Balance Summaries
    • 4.6.1 Indian Ocean
    • 4.6.2 Persian Gulf
    • 4.6.3 Red Sea

Chapter 5 - New Business Models for the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea Submarine Cable Industries

  • 5.1 Commercial Environments
    • 5.1.1 Indian Ocean
    • 5.1.2 Persian Gulf
    • 5.1.3 Red Sea
  • 5.2 Market Drivers
    • 5.2.1 Privatisation & De-regulation
    • 5.2.2 Market Extension by Incumbents
    • 5.2.3 Interconnection
    • 5.2.4 Demand Growth
    • 5.2.5 System Cost
    • 5.2.6 Geopolitical Shifts
    • 5.2.7 Business Process Outsourcing
    • 5.2.8 Redundancy
  • 5.3 Submarine Cable Business Models
    • 5.3.1 Scope & Scale
    • 5.3.2 Ownership
    • 5.3.3 Financing
  • 5.4 Conclusions

Chapter 6 - Report Findings & Conclusions

  • 6.1 General Findings & Conclusions
    • 6.1.1 Market Liberalisation
    • 6.1.2 Business Models
    • 6.1.3 Availability of Submarine Fibre Optic Capacity
    • 6.1.4 Demand for Submarine Fibre Optic Capacity
    • 6.1.5 System Cost
    • 6.1.6 Financing
  • 6.2 Indian Ocean
    • 6.2.1 Investment
    • 6.2.2 Market Liberalisation
    • 6.2.3 Demand vs. Supply
  • 6.3 Persian Gulf
    • 6.3.1 Investment
    • 6.3.2 Market Liberalisation
    • 6.3.3 Demand vs. Supply
  • 6.4 Red Sea
    • 6.4.1 Investment
    • 6.4.2 Market Liberalisation
    • 6.4.3 Demand vs. Supply

List of Exhibits

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Forecast Demand by Region for Intercontinental Submarine Cable Connectivity 2003-13
  • 1.2 Forecast Demand by Region for Intra-Regional Submarine Cable Connectivity 2003-13
  • 1.3 Intercontinental Demand Growth Forecasts for Leading Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea Countries 2003-13
  • 1.4 Forecast CAGR's for Intra-Regional Demand Growth in Leading Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea Countries 2003-13
  • 1.5 Forecast Growth in Average Internet Access Speed vs. Average Bandwidth Usage in Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea 2003-13
  • 1.6 Forecast Intercontinental Capacity Supply-Demand Balances by Region 2003-13
  • 1.7 Forecast Intra-Regional Capacity Supply-Demand Balance by Region 2003-13
  • 1.8 Summary of Regional Supply-Demand Balance Forecasts for Intercontinental and Intra-Regional Connectivity 2003-2013

Chapter 2 - Introduction

  • 2.1 Demand Segmentation Matrix

Chapter 3 - Submarine Cable Connectivity

  • 3.1 Cable Map - Intercontinental Cables Traversing Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea Regions
  • 3.2 Cable Map - Indian Ocean Regional Cables
  • 3.3 Cable Map - Persian Gulf Regional Cables
  • 3.4 Cable Map - Red Sea Regional Cables
  • 3.5 Cable Map - FLAG Europe-Asia
  • 3.6 Cable Map - i2i
  • 3.7 Cable Map - SAFE
  • 3.8 Cable Map - SEA-ME-WE-2
  • 3.9 Cable Map - SEA-ME-WE-3
  • 3.10 Cable Map - TWA-1

Chapter 4 - Supply-Demand Forecasts

  • 4.1 Assumed Trends in Dial-up Penetration by Region 2002-2013
  • 4.2 GDP per Head vs. Teledensity in Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea 2002
  • 4.3 Assumed Evolution of Average Dial-up Access Speeds by Economic Tier 2002-13
  • 4.4 Assumed Evolution of Average Broadband Access Speeds by Economic Tier 2002-13
  • 4.5 Forecast Average Access Speed (All Users) 2002-2013 in Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea regions
  • 4.6 Forecast Evolution of Optimal Application Bandwidth Requirements 2001-12
  • 4.7 Forecast Indian Ocean Average Bandwidth per User by Country 2003-13
  • 4.8 Forecast Persian Gulf Average Bandwidth per User by Country 2003-13
  • 4.9 Forecast Red Sea Average Bandwidth per User by Country 2003-13
  • 4.10 U.S.-originated Indian Ocean Private Line Activations 1995-2001
  • 4.11 U.S.-originated Persian Gulf Private Line Activations 1995-2001
  • 4.12 U.S.-originated Red Sea Private Line Activations 1995-2001
  • 4.13 Forecast Trend in Indian Ocean/Persian Gulf/Red Sea Corporate Data Demand Satisfied by IP VPN 2002-12
  • 4.14 Total Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea Voice Traffic Demand 1992-2001
  • 4.15 Classification of Cables for Supply-Demand Analysis
  • 4.16 Existing & Planned Submarine Fibre Optic Cable Capacity in the Indian Ocean
  • 4.17 Existing and Planned Submarine Fibre Optic Cable Capacity in the Persian Gulf
  • 4.18 Existing & Planned Submarine Fibre Optic Cable Capacity in the Red Sea
  • 4.19 Summary of Existing & Planned Lit vs. Unlit Capacity in Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea Regions
  • 4.20 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Bangladesh
  • 4.21 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Bangladesh
  • 4.22 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - India
  • 4.23 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - India
  • 4.24 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Maldives
  • 4.25 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Maldives
  • 4.26 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Mauritius
  • 4.27 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Mauritius
  • 4.28 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Pakistan
  • 4.29 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Pakistan
  • 4.30 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Sri Lanka
  • 4.31 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Sri Lanka
  • 4.32 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Bahrain
  • 4.33 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Bahrain
  • 4.34 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Iran
  • 4.35 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Iran
  • 4.36 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Iraq
  • 4.37 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Iraq
  • 4.38 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Jordan
  • 4.39 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Jordan
  • 4.40 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Kuwait
  • 4.41 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Kuwait
  • 4.42 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Oman
  • 4.43 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Oman
  • 4.44 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Qatar
  • 4.45 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Qatar
  • 4.46 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Saudi Arabia
  • 4.47 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Saudi Arabia
  • 4.48 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - UAE
  • 4.49 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - UAE
  • 4.50 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Djibouti
  • 4.51 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Djibouti
  • 4.52 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Egypt
  • 4.53 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Egypt
  • 4.54 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Eritrea
  • 4.55 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Eritrea
  • 4.56 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Somalia
  • 4.57 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Somalia
  • 4.58 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Sudan
  • 4.59 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Sudan
  • 4.60 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Connectivity & Average Bandwidth per User - Yemen
  • 4.61 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity & Average Access Speed - Yemen
  • 4.62 Forecast Total Cumulative Indian Ocean Demand for Intercontinental Connectivity 2003-13
  • 4.63 Forecast Total Cumulative Indian Ocean Demand for Regional Submarine Connectivity 2003-13
  • 4.64 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Cable Connectivity in Leading Indian Ocean Countries 2003-13
  • 4.65 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Capacity in Leading Indian Ocean Countries 2003-13
  • 4.66 Forecast Evolution of Average Indian Ocean Internet Access Speed and Bandwidth per User
  • 4.67 Forecast Indian Ocean Regional Supply-Demand Balances 2003-13
  • 4.68 Forecast Total Cumulative Persian Gulf Demand for Intercontinental Connectivity 2003-13
  • 4.69 Forecast Total Cumulative Persian Gulf Demand for Regional Connectivity 2003-13
  • 4.70 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Cable Connectivity in Leading Persian Gulf Countries 2003-13
  • 4.71 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Capacity in Leading Persian Gulf Countries 2003-13
  • 4.72 Forecast Evolution of Average Persian Gulf Internet Access Speed and Bandwidth per User
  • 4.73 Forecast Persian Gulf Regional Supply-Demand Balances 2003-13
  • 4.74 Forecast Total Cumulative Red Sea Demand for Intercontinental Connectivity 2003-13
  • 4.75 Forecast Total Cumulative Red Sea Demand for Regional Connectivity 2003-13
  • 4.76 Forecast Demand for Intercontinental Submarine Cable Connectivity in Leading Red Sea Countries 2003-13
  • 4.77 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Capacity in Leading Red Sea Countries 2003-13
  • 4.78 Forecast Evolution of Average Red Sea Internet Access Speed and Bandwidth per User
  • 4.79 Forecast Red Sea Regional Supply-Demand Balances 2003-13
  • 4.80 Summary of Regional Supply-Demand Balance Forecasts for Intercontinental and Intra-Regional Connectivity 2003-2013

Chapter 5 - New Business Models for the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, & Red Sea Submarine Cable Industries

  • 5.1 Summary of Indian Ocean Commercial Environment
  • 5.2 Summary of Persian Gulf Commercial Environment
  • 5.3 Summary of Red Sea Commercial Environment
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