Wind Energy Outlook for North America

This publication has been discontinued on October 21, 2011.

Below is the updated product.

Wind Energy Outlook for North America: Market Drivers for Onshore and Offshore Wind Power, Regulatory and Policy Issues, Technology Issues, Key Industry Players, and Wind Capacity & Revenue Forecasts

Published: October, 2011

Product code: 219191

Introduction

Abstract

Wind Power Generation Capacity and Turbine Deployments: Market Analysis and Forecasts

In 2008, United States wind power generation capacity passed the 25 gigawatt mark by adding over 8 gigawatts from the year before, which represented the largest individual gain of any country in the world. This growth rate of 50% exceeded that of the year before, indicating that the market is still relatively young and has room to grow, despite the economic slowdown. The market for wind turbines will continue to grow through 2015 driven by new generation additions as well as replacements of smaller, older turbines with new, larger, more efficient turbines. In 2007, generation capacity from renewable sources made up only 4% of the world' s electricity sources, but 16% of new electricity generation capacity additions were from renewables with wind power making up more than 80% of these gains by renewables.

The year 2009 will be a defining moment for wind power markets around the world. The global economic crisis that began in late 2008 has thrown the industry into confusion, along with most other global industries. Two competing market views exist, and representatives from each camp were interviewed for this report across the wind power value chain, such as components suppliers, turbine OEMs, wind developers, and power providers.

This Pike Research report analyzes the opportunities and challenges facing wind power in North America - particularly turbine manufacturers - in the current economic and political climate. It assesses drivers of growth include rising demand for electricity, pro-wind regulatory environments, advantages over other renewables, and technological innovations driving down lifetime costs of producing wind power. Key players in the wind energy business are profiled and the report also includes rich quantitative analysis including market sizing, segmentation, market share analysis of top turbine vendors, and growth forecasts for the United States and Canada through 2015.

• What will be the installed wind generation capacity by 2015 in North America?
• How many turbines will be required to meet wind generation capacity goals, including replacing aging fleets?
• What are the key industry growth drivers and challenges inhibiting growth of wind power?
• What are the economics of turbine manufacturing, installation, operations, and maintenance?
• What technological advances may drive down the lifetime costs of wind power production?
• What market shares do the top turbine manufacturers have of installed wind generation capacity?

Who needs this report?

• Wind turbine manufacturers (OEM and components)
• Wind energy developers
• Wind turbine raw materials suppliers
• Wind energy investors
• Wind energy EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) providers
• Government agencies and regulatory officials
• Industry associations

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Defining the Market
  • 2.1.1 Wind Power in the Context of All Electricity Sources
    • 2.1.1.1 Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity and Additions - All Sources
    • 2.1.1.2 Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity and Additions
• 2.2 Industry Growth Drivers
  • 2.2.1 Increasing Demand for Energy
  • 2.2.2 Legislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Subsidies
  • 2.2.3 Advantages to Other Renewables
    • 2.2.3.1 Lower Lifetime Costs than Solar and Hydroelectric
    • 2.2.3.2 Potential Forecasting Improvements
    • 2.2.3.3 Less Land Use Impacts than Solar
  • 2.2.4 Improvements to Existing Technologies
    • 2.2.4.1 Increasing Turbine Capacities
    • 2.2.4.2 Self-Erecting Towers
    • 2.2.4.3 Better Component Reliability
• 2.3 Implementation Issues
  • 2.3.1 Economic Disadvantages to Nonrenewable Sources
  • 2.3.2 Transmission Line Constraints

3. Technology Issues

• 3.1 Wnd Turbine Basics
  • 3.1.1 Towers
  • 3.1.2 Nacelles and Interior Components
  • 3.1.3 Rotors - Blades and Hub
  • 3.1.4 Wind Turbine Raw Materials
  • 3.1.5 Types
    • 3.1.5.1 Horizontal Axis vs. Vertical Axis
    • 3.1.5.2 Upwind vs. Downwind
    • 3.1.5.3 Three Blades vs. Two Blades
    • 3.1.5.4 Onshore vs. Offshore
    • 3.1.5.5 Direct Drive vs. Traditional Geared Turbine
  • 3.1.6 Marketability and Commercialization
    • 3.1.6.1 Cost
      • 3.1.6.1.1 Equipment Costs
      • 3.1.6.1.2 Balance of Station Costs
      • 3.1.6.1.3 Operations and Maintenance Costs
      • 3.1.6.1.4 Refurbishment Costs
    • 3.1.6.2 Efficiency
    • 3.1.6.3 Reliability
    • 3.1.6.4 Scalability
    • 3.1.6.5 Availability

4. Market Forecasts and Demand Drivers

• 4.1 World Energy Generation by Region
• 4.2 World Renewable Energy Generation by Region
  • 4.2.1 Estimated Wind Energy Production by Region
  • 4.2.2 Wind Energy Forecasts, North America
    • 4.2.2.1 United States
    • 4.2.2.2 Canada

5. Key Industry Players

• 5.1 Established Turbine Designers, Integrators, and Manufacturers
  • 5.1.1 ACCIONA Energia
  • 5.1.2 Enercon
  • 5.1.3 Gamesa
  • 5.1.4 GE Wind Energy
  • 5.1.5 Mitsubishi Power Systems
  • 5.1.6 Nordex Group
  • 5.1.7 REpower Systems AG
  • 5.1.8 Siemens Energy Sector
  • 5.1.9 Suzlon Energy Limited
  • 5.1.10 Vestas
• 5.2 New Entrants and Innovators: Turbine Designers, Integrators, and Manufacturers
  • 5.2.1 American Superconductor (AMSC) and Windtec (subsidiary)
  • 5.2.2 Clipper Windpower
  • 5.2.3 Eozen
  • 5.2.4 Nordic Windpower
• 5.3 Turbine Component Manufacturers
  • 5.3.1 Bosch Rexroth
  • 5.3.2 LM Glasfiber

6. Company Directory

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

Table of Charts and Figures

• Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity by Source: 2007
• Global Electricity Capacity Additions: 2007
• Global Cumulative Renewable Energy Electricity Capacity by Source: 2007
• Global Renewable Electricity Capacity Additions by Source: 2007
• Comparative Household Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries: 1999-2006
• Global Installed Electricity Generating Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2005-2025
• Electricity Generation Sources for U.S., OECD Europe and Japan: 2007
• Cumulative Wind Power Production, World Markets: 2006-2015
• Annual Wind Turbine Unit Sales, North America: 2007-2015
• Annual Wind Turbine Revenues, North America: 2007-2015
• Wind Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2008
• American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009, Energy Funding
• Estimated Lifetime Generation Costs by Renewable Fuel Type
• Wind Speeds Can Drop Suddenly
• Land Conversion from Agriculture: Wind vs. Concentrated Solar Energy
• Causes of Bird Fatalities
• Wind Turbine Sizes Have Grown Dramatically Over 30 Years
• Estimated Lifetime Generation Costs by Power Production Plant Type
• Diagram of a Sample Wind Turbine
• Evolution of Turbine Tower Designs
• Diagram of a Sample Nacelle
• Rotor Diameters Increased More than 5X Since 1980
• Main Raw Materials Used in Wind Turbines
• Horizontal and Vertical Axis Designs
• Select Wind Turbine Prices, 2008
• Sample Capital Costs of an Installed Turbine: 1.5 MW Example, 2009
• Types of Repairs on Wind Turbines (2.5kW to 1.5MW), 2008
• U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards, Goals, and Required Renewables
• Summary of Opportunities and Challenges for Wind Power and Turbine Manufacturing
• Cost for Wind Turbine Components

Table of Tables

• Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity, North America: 2006-2015
• New Additions of Wind Capacity, North America: 2007-2015
• Growth in Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity, North America: 2007-2015
• Wind Energy Production, North America: 2006-2015
• Average Wind Turbine Price per Kilowatt, North America: 2007-2015
• New Wind Turbines Deployed, North America: 2007-2015
• Total Wind Turbines Deployed, North America: 2007-2015
• Wind Turbine Investments, North America: 2007-2015
• Wind Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2008

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