Modern diesel vehicles have undergone a major transformation in their
emissions profiles in recent years. Diesel vehicles that meet current U.S. and
European Union standards have dramatically lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) and
particulate matter emissions than 20 years ago, earning them the name "clean
diesels." A diesel vehicle typically gets 20% to 40% better fuel economy than
a comparable gasoline gas. This factor has made diesel cars tremendously
popular in Europe, where they have accounted for around 50% of light-duty
vehicle (LDV) sales over the past several years. Due to Europe's very high
fuel prices, the price premium of a diesel car can be paid off quickly. Other
markets that have not traditionally strong diesel markets are beginning to
open up now. North America, in particular, has been a weak market for diesel
LDVs for 20 years and is now showing signs of growth. In 2011, the U.S. diesel
market saw 27% growth over 2010, a higher rate than LDV growth overall.
With rising gas prices and stronger fuel economy regulations coming into
effect, the United States should see rising demand for diesel cars and trucks.
From 2012 to 2018, North America will experience a cumulative growth rate of
22%, reaching annual sales of just under 1 million LDVs. Diesel will still
remain a niche vehicle, due to the lack of ubiquitous fuel availability and
the higher price of diesel than gas, but Pike Research forecasts that they
will capture a slightly higher percentage of new U.S. vehicles sales than
hybrids. Globally, clean diesel LDVs will experience much lower growth, with
Western Europe continuing to dominate global sales. The availability of clean
diesel is almost entirely driven by emission regulations and many countries
with strong diesel car markets do not yet have such regulations in place.
This Pike Research report analyzes the global market potential for clean
diesel light duty vehicles, as well as the medium and heavy duty segments,
from 2012 through 2018. The study assesses the demand drivers for diesel to
gain market share over gasoline in key markets where clean diesel regulations
are in place. Key industry players are profiled in depth and detailed market
forecasts are provided for the clean diesel vehicle market, segmented by world
regions and key countries, through 2018. The report also compares projected
clean diesel adoption with forecasts of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles
in key regions.
Key Questions Addressed:
Will markets such as North America begin to see more clean diesel car
adoption?
How much market share will clean diesel vehicles capture compared to
gasoline, hybrid, and plug-in light duty vehicles in key markets?
What are the key demand drivers and challenges for increased clean diesel
adoption globally?
What is the status of government regulation globally that would spur clean
diesel vehicle adoption?
What are the drivers and challenges for biodiesel use in road
transportation?
Who needs this report?
Automotive OEMs
Medium duty vehicle OEMs
Automotive suppliers
Government agencies
Industry associations and nonprofit organizations
Investor community
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Medium and Heavy Duty Clean Diesel Vehicles
1.3 Biodiesel
2. Market Issues
2.1 History of Clean Diesel
2.2 What Is a Clean Diesel Vehicle?
2.3 Vehicle Classifications
2.4 Diesel Vehicle Characteristics
2.5 Clean Diesel Vehicle Cost
2.6 Fuel Issues
2.6.1 Availability of Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel
2.6.2 Cost of Diesel versus Gasoline
2.6.3 Biodiesel
2.6.3.1 Fueling and Infrastructure
2.6.3.2 Fuel Economy and Emissions
2.7 Competing Technologies
2.7.1 Gasoline Hybrid
2.7.2 Diesel Hybrid
2.7.3 Stop-start Vehicles
2.7.4 Advanced Gasoline
2.7.5 Flex Fuel
2.8 Regional Markets
2.8.1 North America
2.8.2 Europe
2.8.3 Japan
2.8.4 Emerging Markets
2.8.5 India
2.8.6 China
2.8.7 Brazil
3. Technology Issues
3.1 Diesel Engines
3.2 Clean Diesel Technologies
3.2.1 Selective Catalytic Reduction
3.2.2 Exhaust Gas Recirculation
3.3 Clean Diesel Fuel
3.4 Biodiesel and Engines
4. Demand Drivers and Barriers
4.1 Overview
4.2 Government Regulations
4.2.1 North America
4.2.1.1 U.S. EPA Exhaust Emissions Regulations
4.2.1.2 Fuel Economy Standards
4.2.2 2025 CAFE Standards
4.2.3 Canada
4.2.4 Europe
4.2.4.1 Fuel Taxes
4.2.4.2 European Commission's Energy Taxation Directive
4.2.5 CO2 Emissions Requirements
4.2.6 Asia Pacific
4.2.6.1 Japan
4.2.6.2 China
4.2.6.3 India
4.2.7 Medium Duty Vehicle Regulations
4.2.7.1 Europe
4.2.7.2 Japan
4.2.8 Biofuel Mandates
4.3 Economics
4.3.1 Fuel Costs
4.3.2 Total Cost of Ownership for Fleets
4.4 Environmental Drivers
4.4.1 Black Carbon
4.4.2 Biodiesel Emissions
4.5 Availability of Diesel Fuel
4.6 Availability and Price of Biodiesel
4.7 Vehicle Availability
4.7.1 North America
4.7.2 Asia Pacific
5. Key Industry Players
5.1 Automotive OEMs
5.1.1 Audi
5.1.2 BMW
5.1.3 Chrysler
5.1.4 Ford
5.1.5 General Motors
5.1.6 Honda
5.1.7 Hyundai
5.1.8 Mazda
5.1.9 Mercedes
5.1.10 Mitsubishi
5.1.11 Nissan
5.1.12 Peugeot-Citroen PSA
5.1.13 Porsche
5.1.14 Renault
5.1.15 Toyota
5.1.16 Volkswagen
5.2 Components Suppliers
5.2.1 Achates Power
5.2.2 BASF
5.2.3 BorgWarner
5.2.4 Bosch
5.2.5 Continental AG
5.2.6 Cummins
5.2.7 Delphi Automotive
5.2.8 Eaton Corp.
5.2.9 Johnson Matthey
5.2.10 Magneti Marelli
5.2.11 Visteon
5.2.12 ZF Friedrichshafen AG
5.3 Biodiesel Fuel Suppliers
5.3.1 ConocoPhillips
5.3.2 CNPC
5.3.3 Imperium Renewables, Inc.
5.3.4 Neste Oil Corporation
5.3.5 Renewable Energy Group, Inc.
5.4 Government, Regulatory Bodies, and Not-for-Profit Organizations
5.4.1 European Automobile Manufacturers' Association
5.4.2 California Air Resources Board
5.4.3 Diesel Technology Forum
5.4.4 Environment Canada
5.4.5 International Council on Clean Transportation
5.4.6 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
6. Market Forecasts
6.1 Global Light Duty Vehicle Sales Forecast: 2012-2018
6.4 Clean Diesel Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Sales Forecast: 2012-2018
6.5 Global Diesel Fuel Demand and Pricing
6.6 Biodiesel Demand Projections
7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
Annual Clean Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Percentage of Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
Retail Price Difference for Gasoline and Diesel by Region, Key Countries:
1995-2008
Annual Clean Diesel and Hybrid Passenger Car Sales, United States:
2009-2011
Monthly Passenger Car Sales, United States: 2010-2012
Monthly Diesel Passenger Car Sales, United States: April 2010-March 2012
Diesel Share of New Passenger Car Vehicle Registrations, Western Europe
Top Five Car Markets: 1994-2010
Percentage Breakdown by Fuel Type for Passenger Car Sales, EU: 2001-2010
Share of New Passenger Vehicle Registrations, Key Countries and Regions:
2003-2011
Historic Retail Prices for Fuels, United States: 2001-2011
Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual Clean Diesel LDV Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
LDV Sales by Drivetrain, North America: 2012-2018
Clean Diesel v. Hybrid LDV Sales, North America: 2012-2018
LDV Sales by Drivetrain, Western Europe: 2012-2018
LDV Sales by Drivetrain, Asia Pacific: 2012-2018
Clean Diesel v. Hybrid LDV Sales, Asia Pacific: 2012-2018
Annual ICE MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
Percentage of Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual MD/HD Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type, United States: 2011-2017
Diesel Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Diesel Fuel Price Projections, United States: 2012-2018
Mandated Biodiesel Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
U.S. Vehicle Classes
Availability of ULSD Globally: 2011
Diesel and Hybrid Share of New Passenger Car Sales, United States:
2002-2013
Diesel Engine Emissions Control System
European Auto Manufacturer Emissions Reduction Targets: 2006 versus 2012
Sales of Low CO2 Emissions Vehicles, European Union: 1995-2009
Global CO2 Emissions Reduction Requirements: 2003-2030
Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Various Fuels
List of Tables
LD Diesel Vehicle NOx and PM Emissions Limits, United States and EU: 2012
LD Diesel Vehicle NOx and PM Emissions Limits, United States and EU: 2012
European Vehicle Classes
Comparison of Internal Combustion Engine Fuel Properties
Comparing HEVs to Diesel LDVs
Roadmap for Light Duty Diesel Vehicles, North America: 2012 and Beyond
Roadmap for Light Duty Diesel-Hybrid Vehicles, Japan and Europe: 2012 and
Beyond
Roadmap for Light Duty Diesel Vehicles, Japan: 2012 and Beyond
Corporate Average Fuel Economy Regulations, United States: 2010-2016
Diesel Passenger Car Standards, United States and European Union
U.S. Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations
Combination Tractor Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY 2017
Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY 2017
Select Biofuel Blending Mandates and Targets by Country
Historic Retail Prices for Gasoline and Diesel, Key Countries: 1995-2008
Historic Retail Prices for Fuels, United States: 2001-2011
Estimated TCO Comparison for Mid-Sized LDV Options with 75,000 Lifetime
Miles, United States: 2012
Estimated TCO Comparison for Mid-Sized LDV Options with 120,000 Lifetime
Miles, United States: 2012
Estimated TCO Comparison for Mid-Sized Sedans with 120,000 Lifetime Miles,
United States: 2012
Estimated TCO Comparison for Mid-Sized Sedans with 75,000 Lifetime Miles,
United States: 2012
Annual Growth in LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual Growth in Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual Clean Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual Growth in Clean Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual LDV Sales by Segment by Region, Key Markets: 2012-2018
Annual LDV Percentage Sales by Segment by Region, Key Markets: 2012-2018
Annual ICE MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
Percentage of Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
Transportation Fuel Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Total Diesel Fuel Demand for All Transportation by Region, World Markets:
2012-2018
Monthly Passenger Car Sales, United States: April 2010-March 2012
Average Diesel Price, World Markets: 2012-2018
Average Gasoline Price, World Markets: 2012-2018
Mandated Biodiesel Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2021
Clean Diesel Vehicles - Light Duty and Medium Duty Clean Diesel Vehicles: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts published by Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research) in June 18, 2012. This report consists of 83 Pages and the price starts from US $ 3900.
Press Release
Clean Diesel Vehicles to Represent Over 12 Percent of Global Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by 2018
June 21st, 2012
Global Information Inc. would like to present a new market research report, "Clean Diesel Vehicles - Light Duty and Medium Duty Clean Diesel Vehicles: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts" by Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research).
Rising fuel prices and stronger fuel economy regulations will stimulate increasing demand for clean diesel vehicles in markets around the world, and the cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts that sales of these vehicles will increase from 9.1 million in 2012 to 12.1 million annually by 2018, with clean diesels representing 12.4% of all LDV sales by the end of that period.
"Demand for diesel cars is primarily driven by their fuel economy," says senior analyst Lisa Jerram. "A diesel vehicle typically gets 20% to 40% better fuel economy than a comparable gasoline car. This factor, along with favorable tax treatment for diesel fuel, has made diesel cars tremendously popular in Europe, where they have accounted for around 50% of LDV sales over the past several years. Due to Europes very high fuel prices, the price premium of a diesel car can be paid off quickly."
Jerram adds that other markets that have not traditionally been strong diesel markets are beginning to open up now. North America, in particular, has been a weak market for diesel LDVs for 20 years. This is largely due to the low gasoline prices in the United States, which has not spurred drivers to purchase more fuel efficient vehicles of any type, including diesel. However, in 2011, the diesel market began to show signs of revival, and Pike Research anticipates that the growth of diesel LDVs will be especially strong in North America during the coming years, with annual sales volumes expected to increase from 282,000 vehicles in 2012 to 928,000 by 2018. Due to emissions regulations in the United States and Canada, all of these diesel vehicles will be clean diesels.
Pike Researchs analysis indicates that many countries with strong diesel car markets do not yet have such emissions regulations in place, and therefore in the long term, tremendous upside potential exists for growth in the clean diesel market as additional regulatory measures are implemented around the world.
Pike Researchs report, "Clean Diesel Vehicles", analyzes the global market potential for clean diesel light duty vehicles, as well as the medium and heavy duty segments, from 2012 through 2018. The study assesses the demand drivers for diesel to gain market share over gasoline in key markets where clean diesel regulations are in place. Key industry players are profiled in depth and detailed market forecasts are provided for the clean diesel vehicle market, segmented by world regions and key countries, through 2018. The report also compares projected clean diesel adoption with forecasts of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles in key regions.
