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High-Voltage Direct Current Transmission Systems: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts - 4Q 2013

HVDC Converters, Cables, Submarine Interconnections, Multiterminal Grids, and Hybrid Breakers: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Generally regarded as the most complex machine in the world today, the interconnected power grid started off with a centralized generator and a direct current (DC) transmission line in New York City in 1882. Since then, most grids have been built using alternating current (AC) and the DC line in New York was decommissioned. But today, at least 660 MW of the load demand in New York is once again powered by DC.

Growth in electricity demand is only one driver in the growth of HVDC transmission. Adverse effects of transmission system congestion and instability need to be fixed. HVDC allows interconnection of regional systems that operate asynchronously, which mitigates many instability issues that otherwise would cause outages in AC transmission. While AC transmission still dominates the transmission industry overall, doubts concerning the limited capability of classic HVDC transmission have been removed by innovative voltage-source converters (VSCs). Interest in VSCs has taken off, and Navigant Research forecasts a growth in demand for this technology. Overall, the global market for HVDC is growing at a steady pace. Based on the project inventory and conversations with vendors and project developers, Navigant Research forecasts that global cumulative HVDC converter revenue will amount to $56.6 billion between 2013 and 2020.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for HVDC technologies. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including trends, drivers, challenges, opportunities, and regulatory factors, related to HVDC systems. An inventory of HVDC lines in construction or planned is used as a basis for the global capacity and revenue forecasts, which are segmented by converter type and region and extend through 2020. The report also examines the key technologies and roadmaps associated with HVDC systems, as well as the competitive landscape.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What types of HVDC projects have been announced globally for the 2013-2020 timeframe?
  • How does HVDC accommodate renewable integration and increase transmission efficiency?
  • How do HVDC transmission systems perform in comparison to their HVAC equivalents?
  • Who are the key players in the global HVDC market?
  • How much do voltage- and current-source converters (VSCs and CSCs) and cables cost, and what is the potential converter market worldwide?
  • What are multiterminal HVDC systems?
  • What is the average HVDC transmission capacity at various voltage levels for announced projects?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Market Overview
  • 1.2. HVDC Drivers
  • 1.3. Key HVDC Technologies
  • 1.4. HVDC Project Survey and Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

  • 2.1. Introduction
  • 2.2. Market Drivers
    • 2.2.1. Long-Distance Transmission and Cost Considerations
    • 2.2.2. Esthetics
    • 2.2.3. Decommissioning of Nuclear and Coal Power Plants
    • 2.2.4. Onshore Wind
    • 2.2.5. Offshore Wind and Submarine Interconnectors
    • 2.2.6. Synergistic Operation of Wind and Hydropower
    • 2.2.7. Electricity Demand and Load Centers
  • 2.3. Market Challenges
    • 2.3.1. Land Use
    • 2.3.2. Capital Intensive Technology
    • 2.3.3. Distributed Generation and Microgrids
    • 2.3.4. Falling Natural Gas Prices, Coal-to-Gas
    • 2.3.5. Regulatory Policies
  • 2.4. Market Trends and Opportunities by Region
    • 2.4.1. North America
      • 2.4.1.1. Regulatory Policies in the United States
      • 2.4.1.2. Uncertainties in the North American Market
    • 2.4.2. Europe
      • 2.4.2.1. Regulatory Policies in Europe
      • 2.4.2.2. Uncertainties
    • 2.4.3. Asia Pacific
      • 2.4.3.1. Regulatory Policies in China
      • 2.4.3.2. Regulatory Policies in India
      • 2.4.3.3. Uncertainties
    • 2.4.4. Rest of the World
    • 2.4.5. Subsea Cables

3. Technology Issues

  • 3.1. Introduction to HV Transmission
    • 3.1.1. HVDC
    • 3.1.2. HVAC and HVDC Compared
    • 3.1.3. HVDC and Voltage Levels
  • 3.2. Primary Components of HVDC Systems
    • 3.2.1. Converter Technology
      • 3.2.1.1. Current-Source Converter
      • 3.2.1.2. Voltage-Source Converters
    • 3.2.2. Cables and Conductors
      • 3.2.2.1.. Mass-Impregnated Submarine and Underground Cables
      • 3.2.2.2. Extruded Submarine Cables
      • 3.2.2.3. Overhead Conductors
    • 3.2.3. HVDC System Configurations and Operating Modes
    • 3.2.4. Connecting HVAC Grids
  • 3.3. HVDC Roadmap
    • 3.3.1. Submarine Interconnections
      • 3.3.1.1. Submarine National Grid Interconnections
      • 3.3.1.2. Connecting Wind Farms and Offshore Power Generation
      • 3.3.1.3. HVDC Power Supply to Offshore Facilities
    • 3.3.2. Converter Technology
    • 3.3.3. Multiterminal Operations
      • 3.3.3.1. Use Case: Atlantic Wind Connection
      • 3.3.3.2. Use Case: Quebec-New England Interconnection
      • 3.3.3.3. Use Case: Pacific DC Intertie
    • 3.3.4. Hybrid HVDC Breakers
    • 3.3.5. Superconductors

4. Key Industry Players

  • 4.1. HVDC Suppliers
    • 4.1.1. ABB
    • 4.1.2. Alstom
    • 4.1.3. AMSC
    • 4.1.4. Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories
    • 4.1.5. Siemens AG
  • 4.2. Large Power Grid Operators
    • 4.2.1. China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd. (CSG)
    • 4.2.2. DONG Energy
    • 4.2.3. EDP
    • 4.2.4. E.ON
    • 4.2.5. GDF Suez
    • 4.2.6. Iberdrola
    • 4.2.7. Korea Electric Power Corporation
    • 4.2.8. Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. (POWERGRID)
    • 4.2.9. RWE Innogy
    • 4.2.10. State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC)
    • 4.2.11. Statnett
    • 4.2.12. TenneT
    • 4.2.13. Vattenfall
  • 4.3. Cable and Cable Equipment Manufacturers
    • 4.3.1. LS Cable & System
    • 4.3.2. Nexans
    • 4.3.3. nkt cables
    • 4.3.4. Prysmian

5. Market Forecasts

  • 5.1. Introduction
  • 5.2. Forecasting Approach
    • 5.2.1. Pricing Assumptions
  • 5.3. Global HVDC Market Forecast
    • 5.3.1. Global HVDC Converter Market
    • 5.3.2. Global Submarine HVDC Converter Market
  • 5.4. Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Cumulative HVDC Converters Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Electricity Demand by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
  • New Annual HVDC Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HVDC Converter Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HVDC Converter Revenue by Type, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative New HVDC Capacity for Submarine Transmission by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total HVDC Converter Revenue for Submarine Transmission by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Economic Tradeoffs Quantified, HVAC and HVDC
  • Economic Tradeoffs: HVAC and HVDC
  • Actual and Announced Coal-Fired Retirements, United States: 2011-2020
  • Electricity Production in Germany: June 17-23, 2013
  • Evolution of Converter Technology Capacity: 1970-2011
  • Production, Export, and Import of Electricity in Germany: June 17-23, 2013
  • Monthly Electricity Production by Fuel Type, United States: 2010-2012
  • Coal and Natural Gas Prices, United States: 2002-2012
  • Electricity Reliability Councils in the United States and Québec, Canada
  • Regional Transmission Operators
  • 2050 Goals for Renewable Generation, European Union
  • Capacity Improvements, HVDC Classic Converter Technology: 1970-2010
  • Right-of-Way Benefits of HVDC Transmission
  • Maximum Real Power Transfer for AC Subsea Cables
  • Generic Converter Station Layout
  • Thyristor, Module, and Valve
  • Chuxiong Converter Station
  • Shoreham HVDC Converter Station
  • Mass-Impregnated Submarine Cables
  • HVDC XLPE Submarine and Underground Cables
  • HVDC System Configurations
  • Submarine National Grid Interconnectors in Northern Europe
  • Maximum Real Power Transfer, AC Subsea Cables
  • 2030 Offshore Grid Vision of European Wind Energy Association
  • Horns Wind Turbine Cable Installation Schematic
  • Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm and Oil Platform
  • VSC Technology Advances
  • Map of Atlantic Wind Connection
  • Hybrid DC Breaker Concept
  • Multiterminal Operation with and without Circuit Breakers
  • Superconductor Wire Components
  • Superconductor Cables
  • Tres Amigas Hub

List of Tables

  • Examples and Description of BAS Architecture
  • Important M&A Activity in the BAS Market, World Markets: 2010-2013
  • Cumulative HVDC Converters Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total New HVDC Capacity by Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, North America: 2013-2020
  • HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, Europe: 2013-2020
  • HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, Asia Pacific: 2013-2020
  • HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, Rest of World: 2013-2020
  • Electricity Demand by Region, World Markets: 2010-2035
  • Average and Cumulative HVDC Capacity by Voltage Level, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Current Converter Technology Capacity Limits by Vendor and Type
  • New Annual HVDC Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HVDC Converter Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HVDC Converter Revenue by Type, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative New HVDC Capacity for Submarine Transmission by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total HVDC Converter Revenue for Submarine Transmission by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
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