The solar power industry and its associated technologies, including
concentrated solar power (CSP), photovoltaic (PV), and concentrated
photovoltaic (HCPV and LCPV), are going through a significant correction as a
seven-year period of capacity building, aggressive pricing, and promises of
grid parity, driven largely by feed-in tariffs, comes to an end. As the
profitable feed-in-tariff incentives fade, and deals that rely on bidding
processes such as tenders and power purchase agreements (PPAs) emerge, many
solar industry participants are recognizing the need to develop new business
models and markets.
The solar industry remains incentive-driven for 99% of its demand. Reliance on
incentives to drive demand has led to specific behaviors, including frantic
buying when prices are low and installing into any available market. Markets
in both the industrialized world and in developing countries require financing
mechanisms to ensure current and future market growth. In the developing
world, unstable economies, poverty, and lack of credit (among other
challenges) continue to dampen growth prospects. In industrialized countries,
subsidies and incentives for the grid-connected application remain the primary
drivers. Currently, the models for incentivizing solar in the industrialized
world are changing and with these changes, more attention is being focused on
the developing world as well as on the remote applications. Continued
artificially low prices for PV technology and polysilicon have caused the
collapse of several companies. Navigant anticipates that manufacturer failures
will continue into 2013. Low bidding on projects continues, leading to the
concern that many of these projects may not be sustainable. Low priced natural
gas in the United States threatens the viability of many solar projects. Low
quality in PV technology and solar installations will increasingly be an issue
from mid-2012 on. Navigant forecasts that growth in 2012 will be between
24-GWp (4% over 2011) and 31-GWp (31% over 2011), with modest growth
continuing over the forecast period.
This seventh annual Navigant Global Analysis report analyzes the global
markets for solar products along with the economic and incentive drivers of
growth. In addition, market forecasts are included for the major solar PV
application segments through 2016, along with regional forecasts for PV
through 2014, and forecasts for CPV and CSP through 2016 under reduced
incentive, conservative, and aggressive scenarios.
Key Questions Addressed:
What are the growth prospects for solar PV, by region, through 2014?
What are the primary metrics for the solar PV industry?
What factors affect solar PV module pricing?
How can the solar PV market be categorized and characterized?
What are the forecasts for major solar PV applications through 2021?
What are the market forecasts for various solar technologies (HCPV, CPV,
CSP) through 2016?
What are the macroeconomic and policy/regulatory factors influencing the
solar PV market over the next several years?
Who needs this report?
Solar PV producers
Technology developers
Solar PV installers and project developers
End users of solar PV systems
Government agencies and policy makers
Investor community
Research Methodology
Pike Research's industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in
preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research's analysis is
primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry
leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals.
Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from
every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology
companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations,
government agencies, and the investment community.
Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research's
analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all
secondary research sources are appropriately cited within the Pike Research's
reports.
These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst's
industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative
analysis presented in Pike Research's reports. Great care is taken in making
sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are
unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and
are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report
and in direct conversations with clients.
Pike Research, a part of the Navigant Consulting global Energy Practice, is a
market research group whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of
market opportunities within its coverage areas. Pike Research is not beholden
to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to
help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political
agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.
About Pike Research
Pike Research, a part of Navigant Consulting's global Energy Practice, is a
market research and consulting team that provides in-depth analysis of global
clean technology markets. The team's research methodology combines supply-side
industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep
examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of these
industry sectors.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Table Of Contents
Tables
Figures
1. Introduction
1.1. Objective
1.2. Scope
1.3. Format
1.4. Methodology
2. Executive Summary
2.1. Overview of PV Industry Growth
2.2. Application Overview
2.2.1. Overview of Selling Channels
2.2.2. Module Size and Market Share
2.3. Global Market Growth 2006 to 2011
2.4. HCPV and CSP
2.4.1. HCPV
2.4.2. CSP
2.5. PV Market Forecast
3. Application Forecast: 2011-2016
3.1. Historical Industry Overview
3.2. Application Market Share and Growth Rates
3.2.1. Photovoltaic Revenue Growth
3.3. Selling Channels
3.4. Forecast Demand Volume 2011-2016
3.5. Application Details
3.6. Market Sector Analysis
3.6.1. Market Share By Application and Module Size
3.6.2. Remote Industrial: Communications and Telemetry
3.6.3. Remote Industrial: Cathodic Protection
3.6.4. Remote Industrial: Transportation Signals
3.6.5. Remote Habitation: Water Pumping
3.6.6. Remote Habitation: Village Power
3.6.7. Remote Habitation: Outdoor Lighting
3.6.8. Remote Habitation: Other
3.6.9. Consumer Power
3.6.10. Grid-Connected
3.6.11. Consumer Indoor
3.7. Trends to 2021
4. Regional Markets and Country Detail
4.1. Overview Of The Worldwide Market For PV Products
Renewable Energy Target (RET) Scheme Solar Credits Program
Europe Regional Growth Reduced Incentives, Conservative & Accelerated
2010-2014
Europe Regional Application Breakdown 2010 (%)
Europe Regional Application Breakdown 2011 (%)
Greece Feed-In Tariff
Brussels, Flanders & Wallonia Green Certificate Programs
Bulgaria Feed-In Tariff Program
Average Electricity Prices In Germany, 2009-2011
Germany's Feed-In Tariff Program 2004-2007
Germany's Feed-In Tariff Program 2008-2015
Germany's Feed-In Tariff Program 2010 -2011
Germany's Feed-In Tariff Program 2012
France Average Electricity Rates 2009, 2010, 2011
France Feed-In Tariff Program 2012
Italy Average Electricity Rates 2009, 2010, 2011
Italy Feed-In Tariff Program
Africa and the Middle East Regional Growth 2010-2014
Africa and the Middle East Regional Application Breakdown 2010 (%)
Africa and the Middle East Regional Application Breakdown 2011 (%)
Kenya Electricity Tariffs
Kenya Feed In Tariff Program
Example of South Africa's Electricity Rates
South Africa Feed-In Tariff Program
Israel Electricity Corporation Time Of Use Tariff
Israel Feed-In Tariff Program
Analysis of Worldwide Markets for Solar Products & Five-Year Application Forecast 2011/2012 published by Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research) in August 28, 2012. This report consists of 442 Pages and the price starts from US $ 3900.
