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Analysis of Worldwide Markets for Solar Products & Five-Year Application Forecast 2011-2012

Notice
This publication has been discontinued on October 23, 2014.

The solar power industry and its associated technologies, including concentrated solar power (CSP), photovoltaic (PV), and concentrated photovoltaic (HCPV and LCPV), are going through a significant correction as a seven-year period of capacity building, aggressive pricing, and promises of grid parity, driven largely by feed-in tariffs, comes to an end. As the profitable feed-in-tariff incentives fade, and deals that rely on bidding processes such as tenders and power purchase agreements (PPAs) emerge, many solar industry participants are recognizing the need to develop new business models and markets.

The solar industry remains incentive-driven for 99% of its demand. Reliance on incentives to drive demand has led to specific behaviors, including frantic buying when prices are low and installing into any available market. Markets in both the industrialized world and in developing countries require financing mechanisms to ensure current and future market growth. In the developing world, unstable economies, poverty, and lack of credit (among other challenges) continue to dampen growth prospects. In industrialized countries, subsidies and incentives for the grid-connected application remain the primary drivers. Currently, the models for incentivizing solar in the industrialized world are changing and with these changes, more attention is being focused on the developing world as well as on the remote applications. Continued artificially low prices for PV technology and polysilicon have caused the collapse of several companies. Navigant anticipates that manufacturer failures will continue into 2013. Low bidding on projects continues, leading to the concern that many of these projects may not be sustainable. Low priced natural gas in the United States threatens the viability of many solar projects. Low quality in PV technology and solar installations will increasingly be an issue from mid-2012 on. Navigant forecasts that growth in 2012 will be between 24-GWp (4% over 2011) and 31-GWp (31% over 2011), with modest growth continuing over the forecast period.

This seventh annual Navigant Global Analysis report analyzes the global markets for solar products along with the economic and incentive drivers of growth. In addition, market forecasts are included for the major solar PV application segments through 2016, along with regional forecasts for PV through 2014, and forecasts for CPV and CSP through 2016 under reduced incentive, conservative, and aggressive scenarios.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What are the growth prospects for solar PV, by region, through 2014?
  • What are the primary metrics for the solar PV industry?
  • What factors affect solar PV module pricing?
  • How can the solar PV market be categorized and characterized?
  • What are the forecasts for major solar PV applications through 2021?
  • What are the market forecasts for various solar technologies (HCPV, CPV, CSP) through 2016?
  • What are the macroeconomic and policy/regulatory factors influencing the solar PV market over the next several years?

Table of Contents

Table Of Contents

Tables

Figures

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. Objective
  • 1.2. Scope
  • 1.3. Format
  • 1.4. Methodology

2. Executive Summary

  • 2.1. Overview of PV Industry Growth
  • 2.2. Application Overview
    • 2.2.1. Overview of Selling Channels
    • 2.2.2. Module Size and Market Share
  • 2.3. Global Market Growth 2006 to 2011
  • 2.4. HCPV and CSP
    • 2.4.1. HCPV
    • 2.4.2. CSP
  • 2.5. PV Market Forecast

3. Application Forecast: 2011-2016

  • 3.1. Historical Industry Overview
  • 3.2. Application Market Share and Growth Rates
    • 3.2.1. Photovoltaic Revenue Growth
  • 3.3. Selling Channels
  • 3.4. Forecast Demand Volume 2011-2016
  • 3.5. Application Details
  • 3.6. Market Sector Analysis
    • 3.6.1. Market Share By Application and Module Size
    • 3.6.2. Remote Industrial: Communications and Telemetry
    • 3.6.3. Remote Industrial: Cathodic Protection
    • 3.6.4. Remote Industrial: Transportation Signals
    • 3.6.5. Remote Habitation: Water Pumping
    • 3.6.6. Remote Habitation: Village Power
    • 3.6.7. Remote Habitation: Outdoor Lighting
    • 3.6.8. Remote Habitation: Other
    • 3.6.9. Consumer Power
    • 3.6.10. Grid-Connected
    • 3.6.11. Consumer Indoor
  • 3.7. Trends to 2021

4. Regional Markets and Country Detail

  • 4.1. Overview Of The Worldwide Market For PV Products
  • 4.2. Aggregate Regional Breakdown

5. North America

  • 5.1. North America Overview
  • 5.2. United States
    • 5.2.1. U.S. Market Description
    • 5.2.2. CSP and CPV in the U.S. Market
    • 5.2.3. U.S. State Incentive Program Tables
    • 5.2.4. Overview Of The U.S. States
    • 5.2.5. Arizona
    • 5.2.6. California
    • 5.2.7. Florida
    • 5.2.8. Massachusetts
    • 5.2.9. New Jersey
  • 5.3. Canada
    • 5.3.1. Overview of Canadian PV Incentive Program

6. Latin America

  • 6.1. Latin America
  • 6.2. Latin America Regional Overview
  • 6.3. Central America
    • 6.3.1. Costa Rica
    • 6.3.2. Mexico
  • 6.4. South America
    • 6.4.1. Chile
    • 6.4.2. Argentina
    • 6.4.3. Brazil
    • 6.4.4. Ecuador
  • 6.5. Caribbean
    • 6.5.1. Puerto Rico

7. Asia-Pacific

  • 7.1. Asia-Pacific (Including Oceania)
  • 7.2. Asia-Pacific Market Overview
  • 7.3. West Asia
    • 7.3.1. India
  • 7.4. Asia
    • 7.4.1. China
    • 7.4.2. Japan
  • 7.5. Southeast Asia
    • 7.5.1. Thailand
    • 7.5.2. Malaysia
  • 7.6. Oceania
    • 7.6.1. Australia

8. Europe

  • 8.1. Europe
  • 8.2. Germany
  • 8.3. France
  • 8.4. Italy

9. Africa and the Middle East

  • 9.1. Africa and the Middle East
  • 9.2. Africa
    • 9.2.1. Republic of South Africa
  • 9.3. Middle East
    • 9.3.1. Israel

List of Charts and Figures

  • 2011 PV Industry Metrics
  • Examples of PV Industry Pricing
  • Grid-Connected History and Forecast 2011-2016
  • Market Shares by Module Size 2011 Demand
  • Regional Growth 2006-2011
  • HCPV Forecast, 2006-2016 Low, Conservative, Accelerated
  • CSP Forecast, 2006-2016
  • CSP 2011 Regional Shares
  • Reduced Incentives, Conservative, Accelerated Global Demand Forecast 2006-2016
  • ASP 2001-Q1 2012
  • 2011 PV Industry Metrics
  • Photovoltaic Industry History 1976 to 2011
  • Reduced Incentives, Conservative, Accelerated Grid-Connected Forecast 2011-2016
  • Worldwide Cell/Module Revenue Volume Lowered Incentives, Conservative And Accelerated Growth 2006-2016
  • PV Industry Application Growth 1986-2011
  • Application Shift, Remote vs. Grid-Connected 1995-2005
  • Market Shares by Module Size 2010 Demand
  • Market Shares by Module Size 2011 Demand
  • Market Shares by Technology 2010 and 2011 Demand
  • Grid-Connected History and Forecast 2011-2016
  • Grid-Connected Sub-Application Growth Application Growth 2011-2016
  • Long-Term Photovoltaic Forecast, MWP 2001-2021
  • PV ASP & MWS Shipped 1991-2011
  • Reduced Incentives, Conservative, Accelerated Global Demand Forecast 2006-2016
  • Remote and Grid-Connected Applications % Contribution 1991-2011
  • Regional Growth 2006-2011
  • Worldwide Regional Market Demand 2010, 2011
  • HCPV Forecast, 2006-2016 Low, Conservative, Accelerated
  • CSP Forecast, 2006-2016
  • CSP 2011 Regional Shares
  • Reduced Incentives, Conservative, Accelerated Global Demand Forecast 2006-2016
  • North America Application Split 2011
  • U.S. Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Canada Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Latin America Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Central America Application Breakdown, 2011
  • South America Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Caribbean Application Breakdown 2011
  • Asia-Pacific/Oceania Application Breakdown, 2011
  • West Asia Application Breakdown, 2011
  • India Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Asia Application Breakdown, 2011
  • China Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Japan Application Breakdown, 2011
  • South East Asia Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Oceania Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Australia Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Europe Application Breakdown, 2011
  • 2020 Europe Renewable Energy Targets By Country
  • Europe Market Demand Growth 2006-2014
  • Germany Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Germany Demand Growth 2001-2011
  • France Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Italy Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Africa & the Middle East Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Africa Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Republic of South Africa Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Middle East Application Breakdown, 2011
  • Israel Application Breakdown, 2011

List of Tables

  • General Assumptions Used in the Analysis of Global Markets
  • Major Photovoltaic Market Categories
  • Market Share by Major Application Historic and Forecasted Percentile Values 2001-2021
  • Selling Channels for Major Applications by Volume Share
  • Regional Demand Growth 2006-2011
  • Regional Demand Growth 2011-2016, Reduced Incentives, Conservative & Accelerated
  • Regional Demand Growth 2010-2014, Reduced Incentives, Conservative & Accelerated
  • PV Industry Growth 1991-2013 Estimate
  • Application Trends 1996-2011
  • Generic PV Application Segments
  • Major Application Growth History, Forecast, and Five Year Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2001-2021
  • Worldwide Module Revenue vs. MWP Shipments Conservative vs. Accelerated Growth, 2011 Current Dollars 2001-2016
  • Selling Channels For Major Applications by Volume Share
  • Major Photovoltaic Market Categories
  • PV Industry Application Growth 1986-2011
  • Conservative Forecast Application Details, 2006-2016
  • Accelerated Forecast Application Details, 2006-2016
  • Application Categories
  • Historic Market Share By Application and Module Size
  • 2011 Market Share By Application and Module Size
  • Communications And Telemetry Applications MWP And % of Category, 2006-2016
  • Cathodic Protection Applications MWP and % of Category 2006-2016
  • Transportation Signals Applications MWP and % of Category, 2006-2016
  • Water Pumping Applications MWP and % of Category, 2006-2016
  • Village Power Applications MWP and % of Category, 2006-2016
  • Outdoor Lighting Applications MWP and % of Category 2006-2016
  • Other Applications MWP and % of Category 2006-2016
  • Consumer Power Applications MWP and % of Category 2006-2016
  • Grid-Connected Application & Total Industry Growth1991-2011
  • Grid-Connected Applications MWP and % of Category, 2006-2016
  • Consumer Indoor Applications MWP and % of Category 2006-2016
  • Regional Market Designations
  • General Assumptions Used in the Analysis of Global Markets
  • Regional Demand Growth 2006-2011
  • 2010 Regional Application Breakdown
  • 2011 Regional Application Breakdown
  • Regional Demand Growth 2011-2016, Reduced Incentives, Conservative & Accelerated
  • Regional Demand Growth 2010-2014, Reduced Incentives, Conservative & Accelerated
  • North America Regional Demand Growth Low, Conservative and Accelerated 2011-2014
  • North America Regional Application Breakdown 2009, 2010, 2011
  • U.S. Electricity Rates by Use Segment 2011, 2012
  • U.S. Application Forecast, Low, Conservative and Accelerated Scenarios Forecast 2006-2016
  • U.S. System Price Comparison, 2007-2012 Estimate
  • Utility Scale & Commercial System Price/Cost Comparison
  • CSP, CPV and PV Overview
  • Overview of States With >10 Solar Incentive Programs
  • Overview of States With <10 Solar Incentive Programs
  • U.S. State Overview 2012
  • U.S. State Overview 2014
  • Overview of Federal Incentives For Solar
  • Overview of Arizona Incentive Programs
  • California Solar Initiative Initial Details
  • California PBI Levels as of August 2012
  • Overview of California Incentive Programs
  • Overview Of Florida Incentive Programs
  • Overview Of Massachusetts Incentive Programs
  • Overview Of New Jersey Incentive Programs
  • Ontario Power Authority Feed In Tariff
  • Latin America Regional Growth 2010 Through 2014, Reduced Incentives, Conservative and Accelerated Scenarios
  • Latin American Regional Application Breakdown 2010 (%)
  • Latin American Regional Application Breakdown 2011 (%)
  • Asia-Pacific Regional Growth 2010-2014
  • Asia-Pacific Regional Application Breakdown 2010 (%)
  • Asia-Pacific Regional Application Breakdown 2011 (%)
  • Asia-Pacific/Oceania Demand/Installations/Shipments
  • India Federal And State Incentives
  • India Federal Budget
  • South Korea Feed-In Tariff
  • China National FIT
  • Liaoning Province Feed-In Tariff
  • Japan Feed-In Tariff
  • Japan Budget For Photovoltaic Technologies
  • Thailand Adder Program For Solar
  • Malaysia Feed-In Tariff
  • Australia Feed-In Tariff
  • Renewable Energy Target (RET) Scheme Solar Credits Program
  • Europe Regional Growth Reduced Incentives, Conservative & Accelerated 2010-2014
  • Europe Regional Application Breakdown 2010 (%)
  • Europe Regional Application Breakdown 2011 (%)
  • Greece Feed-In Tariff
  • Brussels, Flanders & Wallonia Green Certificate Programs
  • Bulgaria Feed-In Tariff Program
  • Average Electricity Prices In Germany, 2009-2011
  • Germany's Feed-In Tariff Program 2004-2007
  • Germany's Feed-In Tariff Program 2008-2015
  • Germany's Feed-In Tariff Program 2010 -2011
  • Germany's Feed-In Tariff Program 2012
  • France Average Electricity Rates 2009, 2010, 2011
  • France Feed-In Tariff Program 2012
  • Italy Average Electricity Rates 2009, 2010, 2011
  • Italy Feed-In Tariff Program
  • Africa and the Middle East Regional Growth 2010-2014
  • Africa and the Middle East Regional Application Breakdown 2010 (%)
  • Africa and the Middle East Regional Application Breakdown 2011 (%)
  • Kenya Electricity Tariffs
  • Kenya Feed In Tariff Program
  • Example of South Africa's Electricity Rates
  • South Africa Feed-In Tariff Program
  • Israel Electricity Corporation Time Of Use Tariff
  • Israel Feed-In Tariff Program
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