Solar Demand Outlook: North America - Applications, Regional Demand Drivers, Incentive Programs, and Market Forecasts

Introduction

As a significant correction continues to roil the worldwide solar power industry, markets in North America are struggling to find stable business models and predictable, long-term growth. In both the United States and Canada, shifts in government policy and incentives have had significant impacts on both solar technology suppliers and system developers and operators. Continued low prices for PV technology have led to low-to-negative margins among manufacturers, company failures, and instances of inferior quality module products and poorly designed systems reaching the market.

Nevertheless, the industry will continue to expand even as profitability remains elusive. Surviving companies will emerge from this difficult period stronger, with genuinely lower costs, and likely more comfortable margins. Under the most likely growth scenario, regional demand will grow from just over 2,500 megawatts (MW) in 2011 to more than 7,000 MW in 2014.

This report provides an overview of regional demand growth for North America from 2011 through 2014. The report details three different forecast scenarios: reduced incentives, conservative, and accelerated. Five industry application segments - remote industrial; remote habitation; consumer power; grid-connected residential, commercial, and utility; and consumer indoor - are examined in depth, and regulatory and macroeconomic factors influencing the outlook for solar demand are analyzed for both Canada and the United States. The report also includes forecasts for the share of each major application segment through 2021.

Key Questions Addressed:

• What are the growth prospects for solar PV in North America over the next several years?
• What are the primary metrics for the North American solar PV industry?
• What factors affect solar PV pricing in the region?
• What are the leading short-term indicators for the solar power industry in North America?
• What are the major trends for solar technology production, capacity, and shipments in North America?
• What are the major trends and developments in North America that vendors, project developers, and policymakers should be aware of?
• What are the macroeconomic and policy/regulatory factors influencing the solar PV market in North America over the next several years?

Pike Research's industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research's analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community.

Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research's analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within the Pike Research's reports.

These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst's industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research's reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients.

Pike Research, a part of Navigant Consulting's global Energy Practice, is a market research and consulting team that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The team's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of these industry sectors.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1. Introduction
• 1.2. Regional Overview
• 1.3. Assumptions
• 1.4. United States
• 1.5. Canada

2. Applications

• 2.1. Overview
• 2.2. Global Application Breakout
• 2.3. North American Breakout

3. United States

• 3.1. Overview
  • 3.1.1. U.S. Market Description
  • 3.1.2. CSP and CPV in the U.S. Market
  • 3.1.3. U.S. State Incentive Program Tables
  • 3.1.4. Overview of U.S. States
    • 3.1.4.1. U.S. Federal Incentives
    • 3.1.4.2. Investment Tax Credits (ITCs)
    • 3.1.4.3. Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS)
    • 3.1.4.4. Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (CREBs)
    • 3.1.4.5. Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
    • 3.1.4.6. Net Metering and Interconnection
    • 3.1.4.7. Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)
    • 3.1.4.8. State and Local Incentives and Mandates
    • 3.1.4.9. State and Local Feed-in Tariffs
  • 3.1.5. Arizona
  • 3.1.6. California
  • 3.1.7. Florida
  • 3.1.8. Massachusetts
  • 3.1.9. New Jersey

4. Canada

• 4.1. Overview
  • 4.1.1. Canada's PV Incentive Programs

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Assumptions, Notes

• Regional Demand Growth, Reduced Incentives, Conservative, and Accelerated Forecasts, North America: 2011-2014
• Application Breakout, North America: 2011
• Application Breakout, United States: 2011
• Application Breakout, Canada: 2011

• Regional Demand Growth, Reduced Incentives, Conservative, and Accelerated Forecasts, North America: 2011-2014Major Photovoltaic Market Categories
• Market Share by Major Application, Historic and Forecasted Percentile Values: 2001-2021
• Regional Application Breakout, North America: 2009-2011
• Electricity Rates by Use Segment, United States: 2011, 2012
• Application Forecast, Reduced Incentives, Conservative, and Accelerated Scenarios, United States: 2006-2014
• System Price Comparison, United States: 2007-2012 Estimate
• Utility Scale and Commercial System Price/Cost Comparison
• CSP, CPV, and PV Overview
• Overview of States with >10 Solar Incentive Programs
• Overview of States with <10 Solar Incentive Programs
• State Market Overview, United States: 2012
• State Market Overview, United States: 2014
• Overview of Federal Incentives for Solar, United States
• Overview of Arizona Incentive Programs
• CSI Step Data
• CSI Step Data
• Summary of Incentives for California
• Overview of Florida Incentive Programs
• Overview of Massachusetts Incentive Programs
• Overview of New Jersey Incentive Programs
• Ontario Power Authority Feed-in Tariff
• General Assumptions Used in the Analysis of Global Markets

Solar Demand Outlook: North America - Applications, Regional Demand Drivers, Incentive Programs, and Market Forecasts published by Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research) in December 17, 2012. This report consists of 57 Pages and the price starts from US $ 1500.