Opportunities in the African Mobile Sector published by Portio Research Limited in February, 2006. This report consists of 100 pages and the price starts from US $ 1095.
Abstract
2004 and 2005 have been remarkable years in the mobile industry and worldwide
growth has been immense. The total number of mobile subscribers worldwide has
grown from 1.38 billion at the start of 2004 to over 2.12 billion at the end
of 2005. During this period, Africa boasted the fastest growth rate of any
region of the world except Eastern Europe, soaring from only a little over 60
million subscribers at the end of 2003 to break the 100 million barrier in
2005 and close out the year at approximately 113.5 million mobile subscribers,
almost doubling the total size of the market in just 2 years.
During the same time frame the only other region in the world to match that
growth rate was Central & Eastern Europe, but there is one very big difference
between these two regions; Eastern Europe is now approaching saturation and
the region is forecast to grow by only 79 million further net additions in the
next 6 years, while Africa represents a vast continent of almost a billion
people, and barely 14% of them currently have a mobile phone. We forecast
another 265 million subscriptions across Africa in the coming 6 years, the
period covered by this study.
Many of the mobile markets in Africa have gone through immense changes in
recent years, evolving from state-run monopolies to competitive growth
markets. Much of the rapid growth in the last 2 or 3 years has been spurred by
this liberalization and now these markets are evolving from this explosive
growth phase into a more controlled, more mature phase, and with this phase
comes a change of focus for many operators in these markets.
As subscriber numbers grow, so operators need to start focusing on ARPU, churn
and the growth of non-voice value added services, and the inevitable
consolidation activity that is associated with any large, fast growing,
maturing market. In the "land grab" for Africa's hundreds of millions of
mobile subscribers, key regional players such as MTN Group, Celtel (now part
of MTC) and Vodacom are spreading their wings and building their portfolios
across the continent. For example, MTN acquired operations in Cote d'lvoire
and Zambia during the second half of 2005, and Celtel acquired a controlling
stake in Madacom in Madagascar at the end of the year. However, so far Orange
is the only one of the big global brands to make their mark on multiple
African markets.
This report offers you a snapshot of the African mobile market during the
second half of 2005 and offers forecasts for growth across the continent.
The report includes detailed country profiles for some of the key markets in
Africa, namely:-
- South Africa
- Nigeria
- Morocco
- Egypt
- Kenya
- Tunisia
This report also includes company profiles of some of those key players:-
- Celtel
- France Telecom
- Millicom
- MTN
- Orascom Telecom
- Vodacom
The fast growth of mobile services in Africa has been enabled, largely, by the
introduction of GSM-based services, which have provided a cost effective means
of communication compared to fixed-line telephony, cost effective for both
network operators and for consumers. Though mobile analogue networks were
present in some countries before the launch of GSM networks, they failed to
proliferate due to a number of reasons, such as the high cost of handsets and
service charges. By example, ETACS was introduced in Kenya in 1993 but had
only 20,000 subscribers by the end of 1999.
The availability of pre-paid billing has been another major reason for the
fast growth in the number of subscribers in the region because the majority of
the population lie in a low per-capita income group, and this has given these
people easy access to mobile services by paying at their own convenience.
Pre-paid subscriptions account for nearly 95 percent of total mobile
subscriptions across the region.
Total mobile subscribers in the region are expected to increase at a CAGR of
approximately 22.5 percent during 2005-2011, resulting in a mobile subscriber
base of over 378 million by the end of 2011. The corresponding mobile
penetration rate for the region is forecast to increase from 14 percent at the
end of 2005 to almost 42 percent by the end of 2011.
Table of Contents
- The African Mobile Market5
- Market Overview 5
- Performance Analysis of Attractive Markets and Players 10
- Drivers and Inhibitors 13
- Country Profiles 16
- Egypt 16
- Kenya 23
- Morocco 29
- Nigeria36
- South Africa 43
- Tunisia 50
- Other Key Mobile Markets 55
- Company Profiles 57
- Celtel57
- France Telecom 61
- Millicom 66
- MTN 71
- Orascom Telecom 77
- Vodacom82
- Conclusion 88
- Appendices 90
- Glossary90
- Forecast Methodology 93
- Portio Research Classifications 94
- Bibliography 95
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Africa -- Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011) 7
- Figure 2: Africa -- Technology Break-up of Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011 8
- Figure 3: Key African SMS Markets (In Billions, 2004) 9
- Figure 4: Africa -- Major Mobile Markets (2004) 11
- Figure 5: Key African Markets -- CAGR (2005-2011) 12
- Figure 6: Key African Markets -- Number of Operators (2004) 12
- Figure 7: Africa -- Performance Analysis of Mobile Network Operators 13
- Figure 8: Egypt -- Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011) 18
- Figure 9: Egypt -- Market Share of Mobile Network Operators (June 2005 19
- Figure 10: MobiNil -- Ownership Structure 20
- Figure 11: Vodafone Egypt -- Ownership Structure 21
- Figure 12: Kenya -- Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011) 25
- Figure 13: Kenya -- Market Share of Mobile Network Operators (March 2005 26
- Figure 14: Safaricom -- Ownership Structure 26
- Figure 15: Morocco -- Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011) 31
- Figure 16: Morocco-- Market Share of Mobile Network Operators (September
2005 32
- Figure 17: Maroc Telecom -- Ownership Structure (November 2004 33
- Figure 18: Meditel -- Ownership Structure 33
- Figure 19: Nigeria -- Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011) 38
- Figure 20: Nigeria -- Market Share of Mobile Network Operators (November
2005) 39
- Figure 21: MTN Nigeria -- Ownership Structure (November 2005) 39
- Figure 22: Vmobile -- Ownership Structure 40
- Figure 23: South Africa -- Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011)
45
- Figure 24: South Africa -- Market Share of Mobile Network Operators (June
2005) 46
- Figure 25: Vodacom -- Ownership Structure (April 2005) 46
- Figure 26: MTN Group Limited -- Ownership Structure (March 2005 47
- Figure 27: Tunisia -- Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011 52
- Figure 28: Tunisia -- Market Share of Mobile Network Operators (June 2005)
52
- Figure 29: Tunisiana -- Ownership Structure 53
- Figure 30: Revenue from the Mobile Sector (2003-2004 58
- Figure 31: Mobile Subscribers (2002-2005 58
- Figure 32: Revenue of the 'Rest of the World' Segment (2002-2004) 63
- Figure 33: Mobile Subscribers (2003-2005 63
- Figure 34: Mobile Subscribers in Africa -- by Geography (June 2005 64
- Figure 35: France Telecom -- Ownership Structure (November 2005) 64
- Figure 36: Revenue from the Mobile sector in Africa (2002-2004 68
- Figure 37: Mobile Subscribers (2002-2005 69
- Figure 38: Mobile Subscribers in Africa -- by Geography (June 2005 69
- Figure 39: Revenue from Mobile Sector (2003-2005 73
- Figure 40: Revenue Break-up -- by Geography (2005) 73
- Figure 41: Mobile Subscribers (2003-2005 74
- Figure 42: Mobile Subscribers in Africa -- by Geography (September 2005 74
- Figure 43: MTN -- Ownership Structure (March 2005) 75
- Figure 44: Revenue from Mobile Sector in Africa (2002-2004) 79
- Figure 45: Revenue Break-up in Africa -- by Geography (2004) 79
- Figure 46: Mobile Subscribers in Africa (2002-2005) 80
- Figure 47: Mobile Subscribers in Africa -- by Geography (June 2005 80
- Figure 48: Revenue from Wireless Sector (2003-2005 84
- Figure 49: Revenue Break-up -- by Geography (2005) 84
- Figure 50: Mobile Subscribers (2003-2005 85
- Figure 51: Mobile Subscribers in Africa -- by Geography (September 2005 85
- Figure 52: Vodacom -- Ownership Structure (September 2005 86
- Figure 53: Africa -- Comparative Analysis of FDI Inflows (In USD Million,
2004) 88
- Figure 54: Gompertz Curve 93
List of Tables
- Table 1: Africa -- Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million) 7
- Table 2: Emerging Market Handset Program -- Member Operators 10
- Table 3: Egypt -- Important Economic Parameters (2004 16
- Table 4: Egypt -- Telecom Industry Snapshot 17
- Table 5: Egypt -- Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million) 18
- Table 6: MobiNil -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-December 2004 20
- Table 7: Vodafone Egypt -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-March 2005)
21
- Table 8: Kenya -- Important Economic Parameters (2004 23
- Table 9: Kenya -- Telecom Industry Snapshot 24
- Table 10: Kenya -- Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million) 25
- Table 11: Safaricom -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-March 2005 26
- Table 12: Morocco -- Important Economic Parameters (2004 29
- Table 13: Morocco -- Telecom Industry Snapshot 30
- Table 14: Morocco -- Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million) 31
- Table 15: Maroc Telecom -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-December
2004) 33
- Table 16: Meditel -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-December 2004 34
- Table 17: Nigeria -- Important Economic Parameters (2004) 36
- Table 18: Nigeria -- Telecom Industry Snapshot 37
- Table 19: Nigeria -- Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million 38
- Table 20: MTN Nigeria -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-March 2005 40
- Table 21: South Africa -- Important Economic Parameters (2004 43
- Table 22: South Africa -- Telecom Industry Snapshot 44
- Table 23: South Africa -- Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million) 45
- Table 24: Vodacom South Africa -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-March
2005)...47
- Table 25: MTN South Africa -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-March
2005) 48
- Table 26: Tunisia -- Economic Parameters (2004) 50
- Table 27: Tunisia -- Telecom Industry Snapshot 51
- Table 28: Tunisia -- Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million) 52
- Table 29: Tunisiana -- Key Performance Indicators (FY end-December 2004 53
- Table 30: Africa -- Other Key Mobile Market 55
- Table 31: France Telecom -- Mobile Operations in Africa 61
- Table 32: Millicom -- Mobile Operations in Africa 66
- Table 33: MTN -- Mobile Operations in Africa 71
- Table 34: Key Performance Indicators in different geographies (2005 74
- Table 35: Orascom -- Mobile Operations in Africa 77
- Table 36: Key Performance Indicators in Different Geographies (2004) 80
- Table 37: Vodacom -- Mobile Operations in Africa 82
- Table 38: Key Performance Indicators in different geographies (2005 85
- Table 39: Africa -- MNOs Ranking in terms of Subscriber Base (June 2005 88
- Table 40: Africa -- Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million) 89
