WiMAX and LTE: The Case for 4G Coexistence

Published by	Pyramid Research, Inc.
Published	January, 2010	Product code	106681
Content info	77 Pages, 40 Exhibits
Price	US $ 2490 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) US $ 3735 PDF by E-mail (Site License) US $ 4980 PDF by E-mail (Corporate Use License)

Introduction
Related Reports

WiMAX and LTE: The Case for 4G Coexistence published by Pyramid Research, Inc. in January, 2010. This report consists of 77 Pages, 40 Exhibits and the price starts from US $ 2490.

Introduction

Abstract

Description

Although the hype around WiMAX is quickly dissipating, we believe the standard has gained enough backing and volume to serve as an alternative for the provisioning of mobile broadband access. It has begun to carve out a tight niche tied to certain target opportunities, it has inspired a new wireless business model, and it has a flexible, flat, all-IP network architecture better suited than HSPA to providing Internet-based services. In contrast, however, the LTE standard has quickly gained substantial momentum. Since WiMAX 802.16e and LTE release 8 will provide similar real-world performance, ultimately the decisions of the largest WiMAX players may determine the fate of WiMAX. For example, Clearwire has been forthright about its intention to choose the technology that provides the best business case given timing and end-user demand for service quality and devices, making its commitment to WiMAX rather unclear. Will the WiMAX opportunity reach a critical point to drive vendor backing of the next iteration of WiMAX, 802.16m, which we expect will be finalized in 2010? The OFDMA architecture of both WiMAX and LTE will pave the way toward 4G networks, which as defined by the ITU-R achieve 1Gbps or more, so it is possible we will see a blending of the two standards.

This report analyzes the current WiMAX operations worldwide, evaluating operator business models, network economics and the overall market opportunity relative to UMTS/HSPA and LTE. The objective is to assess which technology delivers the most popular and profitable mobile voice, broadband and video services in the context of specific market conditions: case studies examine UQ Communications (in Japan), Clearwire (the US), Mobily (Saudi Arabia), Digicel (Caribbean), Tata (India), Umniah (Jordan) and Yota (Russia).

Key findings include:

The number of WiMAX deployments - currently more than 500 across 145 countries - is greater than that of any conventional 3G technology and more than 50% greater than the number of HSPA network commitments. However, most WiMAX deployments to date have been small. We do expect coverage to increase: many of the larger WiMAX deployments are still underway, and large countries such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam are just beginning to issue WiMAX licenses.
Markets with the lowest broadband penetration rates represent the most upside, and we estimate that roughly 70% of WiMAX deployments are in emerging markets, led by the Africa and Middle East region with more than a quarter of global deployments.
WiMAX volumes are dependent on the success of only a handful of large operators, while LTE has the backing of a substantial number of heavyweights - most noticeably the largest Chinese operators. The failure of any of the largest WiMAX operators to continue with WiMAX would serve as a detrimental blow to the WiMAX community.
WiMAX operators are increasingly open to switching to LTE when doing so is necessary and economical, but we do not expect any of them to migrate to LTE anytime before 2013. Migrating to LTE will depend on the availability of 802.16m, the vendor ecosystem supporting this standard and the need to upgrade from 802.16e in emerging markets.
Factors driving operators to deploy WiMAX are speed to market, surgical network deployment opportunities, mobility, multiple-use scenarios, its IP architecture, and the cost of spectrum and deployment.
Certain operators in emerging markets would benefit from bypassing 3G in favor of moving directly to LTE in a few years, although this decision will depend on factors such as spectrum resources.
Despite HSPA' s greater scale, WiMAX USB dongles are priced competitively and even less expensive in some cases compared with other USB dongles.

Key Questions Answered

Should operators in emerging markets opt for WiMAX or HSPA, or wait for LTE?
How does WiMAX compare with other mobile broadband technologies in terms of commercial deployments?
How are WiMAX operators positioning their services and differentiating themselves from conventional 3G and fixed broadband providers?
How do the pricing and average revenue per subscriber (ARPS) of WiMAX providers compare with HSPA players? With fixed broadband operators?
What is the future of WiMAX? Will the technology endure?
Will WiMAX operators migrate to LTE or to 802.16m?
Which markets present the largest opportunities for WiMAX?
What is Pyramid Research' s outlook on adoption of WiMAX, relative to HSPA and LTE?

Target audience

Operators:

Understand what makes WiMAX more important in the budding communications market of the future than the size of its niche would suggest. Discover the long-term prospects of the technology and its relative advantages and disadvantages compared with conventional 3G and LTE. Evaluate whether WiMAX can help meet your data network needs economically. This report also identifies the factors that lead operators to choose WiMAX and how they differentiate themselves in competitive markets.

Vendors:

Understand market dynamics and assess the needs of both WiMAX and conventional mobile operators in all types of markets. Use our forecasts to develop sales plans and identify key market opportunities. Vendors will benefit from a clear understanding of the WiMAX value proposition and the likely direction that WiMAX services will take in the future.

Investors:

Locate opportunities in challenging environments. This report will help you evaluate and develop strategies that will position your portfolio investments to take advantage of one of the more challenging growth areas of wireless communications networks, especially in emerging markets

Table of contents
Table of exhibits
Companies mentioned
Acronyms and abbreviations
Executive summary
Introduction
- Key questions this report answers include the following:

Section 1: WiMAX is here to stay

1.1 WiMAX deployment status
1.2 Why operators choose WiMAX
1.3 Who is using WiMAX?
1.4 Positioning strategies for WiMAX
OPERATOR CASE STUDY: UQ Communications uses MVNO strategy to enter competitive Japanese market with WiMAX
- Company overview and WiMAX strategy
- Target market and service pricing
- Outlook
1.5 WiMAX services and pricing strategies
OPERATOR CASE STUDY: Clearwire pioneers new pricing models for mobile broadband
- Company overview and WiMAX strategy
- Pricing
- Clearwire MVNO activity
- Outlook
1.6 WiMAX CPE and distribution strategy
1.7 How WiMAX pricing and ARPS compare with competing network technologies
- The impact on ARPS of 3G+ mobile broadband
- WiMAX produces larger ARPS than the rest of the 3G technologies
OPERATOR CASE STUDY: Mobily prices WiMAX competitively to attract heavy data users away from its HSPA network
- Company overview and WiMAX strategy
1.8 WiMAX operators emphasize portability/mobility versus DSL

Section 2: Choosing between WiMAX and HSPA in emerging markets

2.1 Why WiMAX attracts mobile operators away from conventional 3G
2.2 For 2G operators, conventional 3G is the natural migration path
OPERATOR CASE STUDY: Digicel chooses WiMAX for residential and personal broadband in the Caribbean
OPERATOR CASE STUDY: Tata uses lower cost WiMAX as an alternative to DSL in India
- Company overview and WiMAX strategy
- Pricing
- Outlook
OPERATOR CASE STUDY: With available spectrum, Umniah goes for WiMAX to offer broadband to
households
- Company overview and WiMAX strategy
- Pricing
- Outlook

Section 3: WiMAX five-year outlook and the impact of LTE

3.1 The case for choosing WiMAX over LTE
3.2 Why LTE will overshadow WiMAX
3.3 Will WiMAX operators switch to LTE?
OPERATOR CASE STUDY: Yota quickly becomes major WiMAX player but doesn' t leave LTE off the table in Russia
- Company overview and WiMAX rationale
- Pricing and service offerings
- Outlook
3.4 How to identify market opportunities for WiMAX
3.5 WiMAX, LTE and HSPA five-year outlook
Related resources

Table of exhibits

Exhibit 1: Mobile technology deployments and commitments by technology, 2009
Exhibit 2: Examples of large-scale mobile WiMAX deployments underway
Exhibit 3: Emerging WiMAX business models
Exhibit 4: UQ Communications' MVNOs
Exhibit 5: Clearwire' s broadband plans in Portland, Oregon
Exhibit 6: Mobile ARPS in the 10 markets with the highest percentages globally of 3G+ subscriptions among population, 2005 and 2009
Exhibit 7: Mobile ARPS in select emerging markets with 3G, 2006 and 2009
Exhibit 8: Correlation of data ARPS with the number of 3G+ terminals in 85 markets globally
Exhibit 9: Total global broadband and mobile voice subscriptions, 2008-2014
Exhibit 10: WiMAX vs. conventional 3G pricing
Exhibit 11: WiMAX vs. HSPA pricing for Mobily in Saudi Arabia
Exhibit 12: Monthly prices and cost relative to speed for Max Telecom (WiMAX) and BTC/Vivacom (DSL) in Bulgaria
Exhibit 13: WiMAX vs. DSL pricing in seven countries
Exhibit 14: Data usage per month among WiMAX and conventional 3G customers
Exhibit 15: Throughput and spectral efficiency of WiMAX and HSPA
Exhibit 16: Floor prices of pan-Indian licenses for WiMAX and conventional 3G
Exhibit 17: Comparison of USB device retail cost for WiMAX, HSPA and EVDO operators in the US
Exhibit 18: Voice revenue composition of mobile service revenue in select developed and emerging markets, 2009
Exhibit 19: Subscriptions to wireless broadband technologies globally, year-end 2009
Exhibit 20: Digicel' s prepaid WiMAX plans in the Cayman Islands
Exhibit 21: Comparison of Tata' s DSL and WiMAX network costs per subscriber
Exhibit 22: Tata' s broadband prices as a percentage of GDP per capita, 2009
Exhibit 23: Cost of spectrum for WiMAX and conventional 3G networks in Jordan
Exhibit 24: Umniah' s pricing on 3, 6 and 12 months for residential WiMAX plans
Exhibit 25: Competitive advantages of WiMAX and LTE
Exhibit 26: Mobile broadband technology timetable
Exhibit 27: Spectrum cost comparison of WiMAX, LTE and 3G in the US
Exhibit 28: Clearwire retail prices for multimode and single-mode USB dongles
Exhibit 29: Forecast of global mobile ARPS composition, 2009 and 2014
Exhibit 30: LTE and voice/SMS integration methods and drawbacks
Exhibit 31: Performance of LTE (release 8) and WiMAX (802.16e, 802.16m TDD and 802.16m FDD)
Exhibit 32: Subscription base of select operators committed to LTE, 2009
Exhibit 33: Spectrum bands identified by 3GPP for LTE
Exhibit 34: Number of available HSPA and EVDO devices.
Exhibit 35: Yota' s mobile WiMAX service plans and pricing
Exhibit 36: Broadband ARPS of Yota and Russian cable players
Exhibit 37: Service positioning matrix, 2009
Exhibit 38: WiMAX, UMTS/HSPA and LTE outlook, 2001-2014
Exhibit 39: Breakdown of WiMAX service adoption, 2009 and 2014
Exhibit 40: WiMAX adoption by region, 2009-2014