Next Generation Biofuels: Market drivers, growth opportunities and regulatory change

Next Generation Biofuels: Market drivers, growth opportunities and regulatory change published by Business Insights in January, 2010. This report consists of 190 pages and the price starts from US $ 2875.

Introduction

Abstract

Over 80% of the world' s primary energy supply is currently derived from coal, gas and oil (collectively known as 'fossil fuels' ), which are used to generate electricity, power, energy and heat for industrial, commercial, domestic and transportation purposes.

The world' s dependence on crude oil for transportation is particularly marked, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimating that fuels from crude oil currently supply about 96% of the worldwide energy demand for transport purposes.

As the world' s population grows and developing countries look to expand their economies, this insatiable demand for fossil fuels is unlikely to show any sign of easing, with oil and gas accounting for 60% of the world' s increasing energy demand between now and 2030. Furthermore, with most significant reserves of fossil fuels unevenly distributed throughout the world, energy security is set to become an increasingly critical economic and political issue over the coming decades.

Real or perceived disruptions to the global supply of fossil fuels - notably crude oil - are likely to grow in frequency and cause wild fluctuations in the price of energy, as they have done so in the past. However, one of the most pressing reasons for seeking alternative sources of energy and fuel lies in the form of climate change. The combustion of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent 'greenhouse gas' (GHG), which are considered to be responsible for 'global warming' .

According to the IEA, if no changes are made to the world' s existing energy economy, related emissions of CO2 will grow marginally faster than energy use, meaning that by 2030 global CO2 emissions will be more than 50% higher than today. Over two-thirds of that projected increase in emissions is expected to come from emerging economies, such as India, China - both of which are set to rely heavily on coal-based power stations to drive their rapidly developing economies.

The combination of biomass and biofuels accounted for around 26% of the world' s total renewable energy production in 2008. Second generation biofuels have been developed due to limitations of first generation biofuels, primarily that the resources used threatens food supplies. Second generation biofuels production processes include use a variety of non-food crops such as waste biomass, the stalks of wheat, corn, wood and miscanthus. Second generation biofuels use biomass to liquid technology, such as cellulosic biofuels from non-food crops.

'Third generation biofuel' primarily references fuel derived from algae. Algae fuel is not yet commercially available or viable due to cost constraints, but through various laboratory experiments promising results have been obtained. In 2008, the US Department of Energy noted that algae can produce 30 times more energy per acre than land crops such as soybeans.

Table of Contents

Executive summary

• What are biofuels?
• Next generation biofuels
• Industry forecasts for biofuels
• Biofuels drivers and inhibitors
• The biofuels economy
• Biofuels market size and forecasts
• Biofuels policies and regulations

Chapter 1 Introduction

• Audience
• How to read this report

Chapter 2 What are biofuels?

• Summary
• World energy demand
• Climate change
• Renewable energy
• Biomass
  • What is biomass?
  • Population, energy consumption and biomass
  • Regional resources
• What are biofuels?
  • Solid biofuels
  • Liquid biofuels
  • Gas biofuels
• Biofuels in current use
  • Ethanol
  • Distribution, storage and blending
  • End-use
• Biodiesel
  • Distribution, storage, blending
  • End-use

Chapter 3 Next generation - advanced biofuels

• Summary
• Introduction
• Second generation biofuels
  • Second generation biofuels under development
    • Biohydrogen
    • BioDME
    • Biomethanol
    • Butonal and Isobutanol
    • Dimethylfuran (DMF)
    • Hydro Thermal Upgrading (HTU) diesel
    • Fischer-Tropsch fuels
    • Bioconversion of biomass to mixed alcohol fuels
    • Wood diesel
  • Key players in second generation biofuels
  • Market possibilities for second generation biofuels
• Third generation biofuel
  • Algae fuel
  • Background
  • Limitations of previous biofuels
  • Algae types
  • Algae cultivation
    • Photo-bioreactors
    • Closed loop systems
    • Open pond systems
  • Algae fuel potential
  • Development timeline
  • Aircraft biofuels testing
  • Key players for third generation biofuel
  • Market possibilities for algae biofuel

Chapter 4 Forecasts for biofuels

• Summary
• Introduction
  • Economic competitiveness of biofuels and biomass
  • Biofuels technology development
  • Biofuels drivers and inhibitors
• Chapter conclusion

Chapter 5 Biofuels drivers and inhibitors

• Summary
• Market background
• Drivers of the biofuels market
  • Greenhouse gases and environmental concerns
  • Regulatory incentives/pressure
  • Concern about energy security
  • Rising cost of existing fuel supplies
  • Consumer pressure
• Inhibitors of the biofuels market
  • The biofuels economy
  • Sustainability concerns and the rising price of food crops
  • Limited biofuels infrastructure
  • Biomass and land availability

Chapter 6 The biofuels economy

• Summary
• Introduction
  • American market
  • American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
  • Biofuels new direction away from corn-based ethanol
• The biofuels economy
  • Production costs
  • Cost of distribution
  • Cost at filling station
  • Third generation algae fuel costs
  • Algae fuel leading players costs comparison
  • Transport fuel blends
• Car costs and fuel efficiency
• Chapter conclusion

Chapter 7 Biofuels market size and forecasts

• Summary
• Worldwide energy demand
• Biofuels market sizing
  • Worldwide
    • Ethanol
    • Biodiesel
  • Europe
    • Ethanol
    • Biodiesel
  • US
    • Ethanol
    • Biodiesel
  • Brazil
    • Ethanol
    • Biodiesel
  • India
    • India' s fuel economy
    • Ethanol
    • Biodiesel
  • China
    • China' s fuel economy
    • Ethanol
    • Biodiesel
    • China working with the US for biofuels development

Chapter 8 Biofuels policies and regulations

• Summary
• Introduction
  • Policy frameworks
• Renewable energy targets
  • Kyoto Protocol
  • European Union
  • US
    • Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
    • Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
  • Developing nations
• Biofuels targets
• Biofuels policy overview by region
  • The European Union
    • Biofuels Directive
    • Directive 2003/96/EC
    • Incentives for biofuels
    • Tax incentives
  • The United States
  • US Energy Policy Act 2005
  • Brazil
    • Proalcool Program
  • India
    • Biodiesel policy
    • Bioethanol policy
• China
  • National Biomass Ethanol Gasoline Project
  • The Renewable Energy Law of the People' s Republic of China
• Chapter conclusion
• Report conclusion
• Abbreviations
• Energy content and conversion rates
• Index

List of Figures

• Figure 2.1: World renewable energy, 2008
• Figure 2.2: Current and predicted EU biomass resources (Mtoe/y)
• Figure 2.3: Current and potential US biomass resources (Million dry tonnes/y), 2005
• Figure 2.4: Potential power generation from biomass among ASEAN countries (MW)
• Figure 2.5: Breakdown of currently available biomass in China by type
• Figure 2.6: Maximum regional bioenergy production potential, 2050
• Figure 2.7: Typical oil extraction from 100kg of oil seeds (kg)
• Figure 3.8: Global biosphere, 1998
• Figure 3.9: Biofuels time period to availability (years), 2009
• Figure 3.10: Cushing, OK WTI Oil Spot Price FOB prices (Dollars per Barrel), 1986-2009
• Figure 4.11: Relative competitiveness of alternative energies in five years, 2009
• Figure 4.12: Relative economic competitiveness of biofuels now and in the next five years, 2009
• Figure 4.13: What proportion of global fuel production will biofuels account for by 2020?
• Figure 4.14: Within how long will biofuels account for the primary source of global fuel production?
• Figure 4.15: Which regions will lead the development of biofuels over the next five years?
• Figure 4.16: How important will the following factors be in driving the biofuels market over the next five years?
• Figure 4.17: How important will the following factors be in inhibiting the biofuels market over the next five years?
• Figure 4.18: Biofuels impact on global food crop prices, 2009
• Figure 5.19: Projected world energy demand to 2030 (Mtoe)
• Figure 5.20: Growth in energy demand by region (2000-2030)
• Figure 5.21: Projected worldwide oil consumption (million barrels per day), 2005-2025
• Figure 5.22: Average annual oil price (US$ per barrel), 2008
• Figure 5.23: Opting for green energy is one behavioural aspect of rising environmental attitudes
• Figure 5.24: The potential biomass availability of EU15, AC10 and/or Europe according to five studies (left part of the figure)
• Figure 6.25: Cost of distribution and dispensation of various fuels from a central production facility to a filling station (€ /GJ)
• Figure 6.26: Costs of various biofuels at the filling station using existing technology (2004)
• Figure 6.27: An algae production process, 2009
• Figure 6.28: Algal fuel capacity projections 2009-2014, 2009
• Figure 6.29: Gasoline ethanol (kpa/%v/v), 2008
• Figure 6.30: Car costs (€ ) and fuel efficiencies (km/GJ of fuel) of passenger cars by fuel and engine system
• Figure 7.31: Worldwide biofuels fuel production volume (billion liters), 2008
• Figure 7.32: Global bioethanol production growth (thousand tons of oil equivalent), 1998-2008
• Figure 7.33: Top bioethanol producing countries (thousand tons of oil equivalent), 2008
• Figure 7.34: Biodiesel (million L/a), 2009
• Figure 7.35: Bioethanol in Europe (million L/a), 2008
• Figure 7.36: Biodiesel production in Europe (million liters/annum), 2009
• Figure 7.37: EU market share of biodiesel production in 2008 (%), 2009
• Figure 7.38: Projected US ethanol production (billions of gallons), 2006-2012
• Figure 7.39: US ethanol market revenue forecast ($bn), 2006-2012
• Figure 7.40: US bioethanol development (million L/a), 2009
• Figure 7.41: US biodiesel (million L/a), 2009
• Figure 7.42: Brazil biofuels development (million L/a), 2009
• Figure 8.43: Renewable fuels targets in the US (billions of gallons per year), 2006-2012
• Figure 8.44: EU biofuels targets, 2008

List of Tables

• Table 2.1: World renewable energy, 2008
• Table 2.2: Population, energy consumption and biomass contribution in selected regions, 2005
• Table 2.3: Current and predicted EU biomass resources (Mtoe/y)
• Table 2.4: Current and potential US biomass resources (Million dry tons/y), 2005
• Table 2.5: Potential power generation from biomass among ASEAN countries (MW)
• Table 2.6: Breakdown of currently available biomass in China by type
• Table 2.7: Maximum regional bioenergy production potential, 2050
• Table 2.8: Typical oil extraction from 100kg of oil seeds (kg)
• Table 3.9: Comparison of first and second generation biofuels
• Table 3.10: Biofuels comparison (Liters of oil yields (hectares/year)), to 2009
• Table 3.11: Viable Bio-SPK feedstock alternatives, 2009
• Table 3.12: Fuel property comparisons: Neat, 2009
• Table 3.13: Fuel property comparisons: Blends, 2009
• Table 5.14: Projected world energy demand to 2030
• Table 5.15: Growth in energy demand by region (2000-2030)
• Table 5.16: Projected worldwide oil consumption (million barrels per day), 2005-2025
• Table 5.17: CO2 equivalent emissions savings from biofuels (g/km), 2006
• Table 5.18: Average annual oil price (US$ per barrel), 2008
• Table 5.19: Key barriers for biofuels
• Table 6.20: Production costs of biofuels from various crops
• Table 6.21: Cost of distribution and dispensation of various fuels from a central production facility to a filling station (€ /GJ)
• Table 6.22: Costs of various biofuels at the filling station using existing technology (2004)
• Table 6.23: Cost comparison of biofuels with gasoline fossil fuels
• Table 6.24: Cost estimates of various biofuels at the filling station using future technology, post- 2010
• Table 6.25: Cost of harvesting, dewatering and drying algae, 2009
• Table 6.26: Top biofuels companies, 2009
• Table 6.27: Algal fuel capacity projections 2009-2014, 2009
• Table 7.28: Comparison of worldwide fuel production from hydrocarbon sources versus biomass sources, 2005
• Table 7.29: Worldwide biofuels fuel production volume (bn liters), 2008
• Table 7.30: Amounts of raw materials to meet worldwide fuel demand, 2005
• Table 7.31: Global bioethanol production (thousand tons of oil equivalent), 2008
• Table 7.32: Biodiesel (million L/a), 2008
• Table 7.33: Bioethanol in Europe (million L/a), 2008
• Table 7.34: EU bioethanol production, supply and demand (1,000MT)
• Table 7.35: EU bioethanol production - number of plants and capacity (1,000 MT)
• Table 7.36: Feedstock use for bioethanol production (1,000MT)
• Table 7.37: EU bioethanol consumption - main consumers (1,000 MT)
• Table 7.38: EU bioethanol and gasoline consumption (Ktoe)
• Table 7.39: Biodiesel production in Europe (millions liters/annum), 2009
• Table 7.40: EU Biodiesel production - number of plants and capacity (1,000 MT)
• Table 7.41: EU market share of biodiesel production in 2008 (%), 2009
• Table 7.42: Feedstock use for biodiesel production (1,000MT), 2009
• Table 7.43: EU biodiesel consumption (1,000MT), 2009
• Table 7.44: EU biodiesel and diesel consumption (Ktoe), 2009
• Table 7.45: Projected US ethanol production (billions of gallons), 2006-2012
• Table 7.46: US ethanol market revenue forecast (US$bn), 2006-2012
• Table 7.47: US bioethanol development (million L/a), 2009
• Table 7.48: Existing and future ethanol capacity in the US, 2009
• Table 7.49: US biodiesel (million L/a), 2009
• Table 7.50: Ethanol profile comparison of the US and Brazil (2006)
• Table 7.51: Brazil biofuels development (million L/a), 2009
• Table 7.52: Brazilian biodiesel production, supply and demand (January-December, 000 Liters), 2009
• Table 7.53: Brazilian fuel consumption matrix (000 m3)
• Table 7.54: Brazilian soybeans and products production (000 hectares, 000 metric tons)
• Table 7.55: Brazilian cotton and products production (000 hectares, 000 metric tons)
• Table 7.56: Projected demand and supply of ethanol in India for 5% blend with gasoline
• Table 7.57: India' s ethanol requirement for 5% blending with gasoline sugar
• Table 7.58: India' s production & distribution of molasses and alcohol/ethanol in sugar (million Tons/ million Liters), 2008
• Table 7.59: Projected demand for gasoline and diesel in India to 2012 (MT)
• Table 7.60: Diesel and biodiesel demand in India using Jatropha (MT)
• Table 7.61: China' s major biodiesel plants production capacity (MT), 2008
• Table 8.62: Biofuels infrastructure profiles,Q209
• Table 8.63: Mechanisms to incentivize renewable energy generation
• Table 8.64: EU renewable energy targets for 2020 (%)
• Table 8.65: Renewable fuels targets in the US (billions of gallons per year), 2006-2012
• Table 8.66: Biofuels energy targets
• Table 8.67: Biofuels policy overview of selected countries

Press Release

Biomass and biofuels accounted for around 26% of the world's total renewable energy production in 2008

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