PUBLISHER: Reed Electronics Research | PRODUCT CODE: 1388512
PUBLISHER: Reed Electronics Research | PRODUCT CODE: 1388512
In providing the forecasts for the current study, which were made in June, we have considered developments in the European and global economy. However, significant downside risks remain which could lead to growth in 2023 and 2024 being lower than forecast. We currently expect growth to ease over the course of the second half of 2023 and into 2024 before gaining momentum in the latter half of the year and then accelerate over the remainder of the forecast period. Component shortages have continued to ease over the course of 2023 and are expected to normalise in 2024. The forecasts for 2023 through to 2026 are based on constant 2022 exchange rates and prices and therefore exclude the impact of inflation.
In Euro's the production of electronic equipment in Western Europe increased by an estimated 5.9% in 2022 to Euro 127.3 billion and compared to growth of 6.4% in the prior year as output rebounded from the pandemic. Based on current indicators we are forecasting that growth in electronic equipment output in Western Europe will ease to 2.2% in 2023, edge-up to 2.9% in 2024 with growth gaining momentum in the second half of the year then accelerate to 3.9% and 4.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
The industrial segment, which accounted for an estimated 61.9% of electronics equipment output in 2022, has been a key driver of growth following the COVID-19 led-recession. Despite the expected slowdown in 2023/2024 growth is forecast to accelerate in the later part of the forecast. By the end of 2026 its share of the total will account for 62.7%.
Growth in the communications segment rebounded in 2021 with growth of 3.9% and increased by a further 4.7% in 2022. Defence spending, which was expected to be reduced as governments look to reduce the deficit arising from measures introduced to support the economy through the pandemic, will benefit from the escalation in geopolitical tensions including the war in Ukraine. The aerospace segment, which was hit hard by the collapse in the commercial aviation sector as a result of the pandemic, is gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels though in the short-term growth is forecast to be impacted by the slowdown in the global economy. Computer output will continue to decline over the forecast period as will the production of video and audio equipment.
In 2022, the production of electronic components in Western Europe amounted to Euro 50.0 billion, 28.2% of overall electronics production. The shortage of components in 2021, which fuelled higher prices and the move by companies to increase output, continued in 2022 leading to a second year of double-digit growth (2021: 14.9%/2022: 12.1%).
In 2022, active components accounted for 62.3%, passive 31.3% and other 6.4% while Germany accounted for the largest share of production at 34.5%, followed by France 14.9%, Ireland 14.7%, Italy 11.1% and the UK 5.6%. With the EU and several countries, notably Germany, France and Italy, looking to secure the future supply of leading-edge semiconductors a number of advanced wafer fabs have been announced with construction planned to start in 2024/2025. In addition, investment has or is being made in existing fabs in the region which will boost output over the period to 2026. Western Europe is also home to a number of fabless semiconductor companies and remains a centre for research and design with a strong start-up culture.
At Euro 257.5 billion in 2022 the West European market for electronic equipment and components was 9.4% higher than the Euro 235.4 billion reported in the prior year and is forecast to reach Euro 262.4 billion in 2023, this despite the anticipated slowdown in the second half of the year.
With a history now extending over 50 years, the first edition of the ‘Volume 1 of the Yearbook of World Electronics Data’ was first published in 1973, the Yearbook series has been extended to cover 53 countries globally to provide an invaluable and unique insight into the global trends, regional variations and the underlying state of the global electronics market for all stages of the supply chain - OEM, contract manufacturing and design, components and materials suppliers to financial /industry analysts and government and academia.
Although encompassing a range of published and bespoke products the core of RER's research programme is one of the most comprehensive statistical databases covering the global electronics industry, with the resulting analysis being published through three concise and clear demographic volumes, as a series of individual country reports, through customised solutions to meet specific client requirements and a series of Excel databases providing the combination of both historical and forecasted data.
Published since 1973 the ‘Volume 1 of the Yearbook of World Electronics Data’ provides:
In providing the forecasts for the current study, which were made in October 2023, we have considered developments in the global economy. However, significant downside risks remain which could lead to growth in 2023 and 2024 being lower than forecast. We currently expect growth to ease over the final months of 2023 and into 2024 before gaining momentum in the latter half of the year and then accelerate. Component shortages have continued to ease over the course of 2023 and are expected to normalise in 2024. The forecasts for 2023 through to 2026 are based on constant 2022 exchange rates and prices and therefore exclude the impact of inflation.
Within the Yearbook series the Americas covers Brazil and the three countries making-up North America. In 2022, electronics production in North America amounted to US$354 billion in 2022 with the US dominating accounting for 78.5% of the total. Mexico, which acts as the low-cost production base for the region, accounted for 18.9% while Canada accounted for only 2.6%. After increasing in US dollars by 7.8% in both 2021 and 2022, growth is forecast to ease to 0.4% in 2023.
The Brazilian electronics industry is focused on the production of electronics equipment with computing, including office equipment, the dominant sector accounting for 48% of total electronics equipment output in 2022 and was followed by communications and radar with a 28% share. Electronic component production at US$2.0 billion accounted for 9.9% of electronics output in 2022.
After three years of declining output between 2018 and 2020 electronics production posted its second year of consecutive growth in 2022, although at 2.2% it was below the prior year's increase of 8.9%. Based on official figures for the first six months of the year overall electronics output, is forecast to be flat in 2023 an 8.4% rise in electronic equipment production offset by a 6.7% decline in electronics component output.
In 2022, the production of electronics equipment and components in Asia was valued at US$1,518 billion of which components accounted for 43%. Electronics equipment production, which accounted for 57% of the total, is dominated by computing and communications.
With a history spanning 50 years the ‘Yearbook of World Electronics Data’ has provided an invaluable insight into the global trends, regional variations and the underlying state of the global electronics market for all stages of the supply chain - OEM, contract manufacturing and design, components and materials suppliers to financial /industry analysts and government and academia.
Although encompassing a range of published and bespoke products the core of RER's research programme is one of the most comprehensive statistical databases covering the global electronics industry, with the resulting analysis being published through three concise and clear demographic volumes, as a series of individual country reports, through customised solutions to meet specific client requirements and, from 2012, as a series of Excel databases providing the combination of both historical and forecasted data.
Published since 1983 the ‘Volume 2 of the Yearbook of World Electronics Data’ provides: