Global and China Automotive Exhaust System Industry Report, 2013 contains the following:
The global automotive exhaust system market size approximated USD 31.7 billion in 2013, only a slight increase of 1.3% year on year, mainly due to the EU market downturn, Japanese yen devaluation and China's delay of Emission Standard IV for diesel vehicles. However, as emission standards become more and more stringent, the market size of exhaust systems, especially those for diesel vehicles, will grow steadily, and is expected to rise by 4.1% to USD 33 billion in 2014.
The much-anticipated Chinese market for the fourth time delayed the implementation of Emission Standard IV which was initially announced by the government in May 2005 to be effective on January 1, 2011. The implementation was rescheduled in January 2012 to take effect on July 1, 2013, which was failed too, and now is expected to be postponed to July 2014 at the earliest.
Many foreign agencies believe that the SCR technology corresponding to China's Emission Standard IV may not be promoted in China. For Chinese manufacturers, SCR is unacceptable because of the growing one-time procurement amount and, most importantly, the significant increase in operating costs. In order to make diesel vehicles comply with Emission Standard IV, it's necessary to add the automotive urea solution equivalent to 4%-6% of diesel consumption, and the cost of urea solution is nearly RMB 5 / liter, which means about RMB 20 of urea per 100 km, greatly increasing the follow-up operating costs of vehicles.
Currently, Sinopec's automotive urea solution filling stations in China are operating at a loss. In the short term, barreled urea solution will still occupy the mainstream market, but it has high requirements on storage and transportation, therefore, it's difficult for domestic Emission Standard IV-compliant vehicle users to refuel urea solution conveniently. Truck drivers' use of urea solution is uncontrollable, they can only use urea solution in annual vehicle inspection or examination, which means the insignificance of SCR even it's available. The government is well aware of this, so China is energetically promoting EGR, especially for diesel vehicles under 2L. There is no position for SCR on the market.
In addition, the quality of China's oil products is poor, Sinopec, China's largest oil refinery, has just completed the upgrading of Standard III diesel, and has no schedule for Standard IV. Most EGR-enabled engines cannot use Standard III diesel which may do harm to the engines. Currently, China needs to import Standard IV diesel from other countries and regions.
Automotive exhaust systems available in China can be divided into European, American, Japanese, South Korean and local ones.
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