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PUBLISHER: SIMBA Information, Inc. | PRODUCT CODE: 1371868

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PUBLISHER: SIMBA Information, Inc. | PRODUCT CODE: 1371868

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2023-2024

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PAGES: 165 Pages
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Simba's Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2023-2024 report examines and analyzes a wide range of key data impacting educational publishers. These include data and trends related to budget and policy, enrollment trends, market size, and competitive analysis including selected company profiles. The data and findings are based on Simba's internal research and analysis of official data drawn from a wide range of expert timely sources, including main data from the US Department of Education's National Center for Education Statistics, along with information from state education departments, local school districts, and state legislative bodies along with information from Simba's nationwide research that is conducted on an ongoing basis throughout the year, combined with company presentations and public documents. The report found that total sales of instructional materials reached $9.9 billion in 2022, up 6.3% from $9.31 billion in 2021. The Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2023-2024 report further analyzed the market and determined that growth in digital materials will outpace print materials, although the variation is slight. Trade books are an exception, with a CAGR of 4.3% from 2023-2026 expected.

Product Code: CURP18265372

Table of Content

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 1: ENROLLMENT & DEMOGRAPHICS

POST-LOCKDOWN ENROLLMENTS LAG

Pandemic-Led Impacts

Longer-Term Trends

Permanent Impacts

THE PUBLIC SCHOOL LANDSCAPE

Table 1. Enrollment in Public K-12 Schools by Level, Fall 2019 to Fall 2023 (in thousands)

Enrollment Trends Vary By State

Table 2. Change in Public School Enrollments by State, 2021-2022 versus 2020-2021 School Years

State Estimates for 2022-2023

Variations by District

Impacts by Race and Ethnicity

Table 3. Enrollment in Public Schools by Level and Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2021 (in thousands)

GENERAL POPULATION TRENDS

Birth Rates

Table 4. Change in Number of Births by Race/Ethnicity, 2021

Youth Population

Table 5. Resident US Population Under 18 Years and Percentage of Population, by State, 2022

Table 6. Number of Children Under 18 in the US, by Age, 2020-2022 and Projected 2023-2029 (in millions)

Population Trends by State

Table 7. Change in Population by State, 2020-2022

NUMBER OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS

Table 8. Number of Public K-12 Schools by Type and Charter, Magnet, and Virtual Status, 2020-21 through 2021-22

ALTERNATIVES TO PUBLIC SCHOOLS

School Choice

PRIVATE SCHOOLS SEE PANDEMIC COATTAILS

Catholic Schools Stay Strong

Table 9. Catholic School Enrollment and Number of Schools, 2022-2023

Table 10. Catholic School Enrollment Trends, Fall 2018 to Fall 2022

CHARTER SCHOOLS

Table 11. Number of Charter Students and Schools, 2018-2019 Through 2020-2021

ii October 2023 © Simba Information

Table 12. States with the Largest Charter School Enrollment as a Share of Total School Enrollments, 2020-2021

HOME SCHOOLING

Table 13. Number of Students Home-Educated, 2019-2022

VIRTUAL SCHOOLING

Table 14. Number of US Virtual Schools, Enrollment, and Share of Enrollment, 2019-2020

GRADUATION RATES AND DUAL ENROLLMENT

Table 15. Public High School Graduates, by Region, 2019-2020 through 2022-2023 (P)

Dual Enrollment

POVERTY AND HOMELESSNESS

Table 16. Percentage Distribution of Enrollment in Public Schools, by Family Poverty Rate of 5- to 17-Year-Olds Living in the District, 2019-2020

Homelessness and Education

Table 17. Homeless Students (Undergrad, 3- to 5-year-olds, and K-12), 2017-2018 through 2019-2020 (in thousands)

Table 18. Homeless Students Enrolled, by Select Age Levels, 2017-2018 to 2019-2020

CONTINUED RISE OF THE ENGLISH LEARNER POPULATION

Table 19. Trends in English-Language Learner Enrollment, 2000-2001 to 2019-2020

Table 20. English-learner Students Enrolled in Public K-12 Schools by Grade, Fall 2019

Table 21. English-learner Students Enrolled in Public K-12 Schools by Home Language, Fall 2019

Table 22. English-learner Students Enrolled in Public K-12 Schools by Race/Ethnicity and Disability, Fall 2019

Table 23. Percentage of Public School Students Who Are English Learners by State, 2019-2020

SPECIAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS DECLINE SLIGHTLY

Table 24. Children Served Under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), Part B, by Type of Disability, 2020-2021 (in thousands)

UNIVERSAL PREK PROGRAMS CONTINUE TO GROW

Table 25. Percentage of 3- to 5-Year-Old Children Enrolled in School, by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 2019-2020 versus 2020-2021 School Years

Table 26. Availability of Public PreK Programs by State, February 2023

STUDENTS ON THE MOVE

Table 27. Foreign-Born Immigration and Student Immigration, 2013-2022 (in thousands)

Table 28. Annual Population Change, July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022

Exchange Programs

Table 29. Top States for K-12 Schools Certified by the Student and Exchange Visitor Program by State, 2021

Undocumented Students

Table 30. Estimated Population of K-12 Undocumented Students by State, 2021

EVEN POST-PANDEMIC, ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT IN CONNECTIVITY

Table 31. Progress Toward FCC School Connectivity Goals, 2015-2022

Table 32. Percentage of Districts Meeting FCC-Recommended Bandwidth of 1 Mbps Per Student by State, 2021-2022

October 2023 © Simba Information iii

CHAPTER 2: BUDGET & POLICY

FEDERAL FUNDING REMAINS STRONG IN ADVANCE OF ESSER CLIFF

Congressional Appropriations Target Federal Priorities

Table 33. Department of Education Fiscal Year 2024 President's Budget, Selected K-12 Programs (thousand $)

Appropriations by State Vary Dramatically

Table 34. Department of Education Grants to Local Educational Agencies, 2022-2024E (thousand $)

Looking Ahead to 2023

Table 35. Federal On-Budget Funds for K-12 Education, by Agency, 2020-2021 (thousand $)

Preparing for the ESSER Funding Cliff

Final Deadline is Looming

Looking Ahead

K-12 Spending By Funding Source

Table 36. Summary of Public Elementary-Secondary School System Revenues, FY2021 (thousand $)

Table 37. Summary of Public Elementary-Secondary School System Expenditures, FY2021 (thousand $)

Table 38. Summary of Public Elementary-Secondary School System Revenues and Expenditures by State, FY2021 (thousand $)

UNCERTAINTY IMPACTS STATE BUDGET FORECASTS

States Announce Funding Increases

Examining Funding Formulas

CURRICULUM RESTRICTIONS AND BOOK BANS

Curriculum Restrictions

Race and CRT

Political Divisions

Impacts of Restrictions

Book Bans in Libraries and Classrooms

SCHOOL CHOICE AND PARENTAL RIGHTS

Parental Rights in the Classroom

POLICY DICTATES SUBJECT MATTER

Computer Science

Career and Technical Education

States' CTE Programs Expand

The Science of Reading

Dual-Language Programs

PreK and Early Learning

Media Literacy

Social-Emotional Learning: Embraced Despite Divisions

Table 39. State Progress on Social, Emotional, and Academic Development, 2021 (number of states)

SOCIAL ISSUES AT THE FOREFRONT

Gun Violence Incidents on the Rise

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Mental Health Is an Ongoing Concern

Inclusivity vs. Fairness: Title IX and Transgender Students

Other Social Issues Having an Impact on K-12 Education

Homelessness and K-12 Schools

Free School Meals for All

Dealing with Drug Use

Impact of Artificial Intelligence

TEACHER STAFFING AND PAY

CYBERSECURITY, PRIVACY, AND CONNECTIVITY

The Cybersecurity Threat

CHAPTER 3: PREK-12 INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS MARKET SIZE

TOTAL SALES OF INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS

Sales by Segment

Table 40: Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools, by Segment, 2020-2022 ($ in millions)

      • Table 41: Market Share, Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools, by Segment, 2020-2022

Pandemic Fallout

Move to Digital Slows Post-Pandemic

Table 42: Share of Instructional Materials, Print vs. Digital, 2020-2022

LOOKING AHEAD

Table 43: Forecasted Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools, by Segment, 2023-2026 ($ in millions)

Category Trends Continue

Table 44: Market Share, Forecasted Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools, by Segment, 2023-2026

Digital Materials Steady at Just Under Two-Thirds of Market

Table 45: Forecasted Share of Instructional Materials, Print vs. Digital, 2023-2026

CHAPTER 4: COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

OPERATIONAL TRENDS IN 2022-2023

Trends and Challenges Face Educators and Vendors

Potential ESSER Funding Cliff Ahead

Difficult Issues Continue to Intensify

Technology: Adapting to the Post-Pandemic Marketplace

How Companies Have Responded to the Trends

Cambium Learning

Cengage

Discovery Education

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Kahoot!

McGraw Hill

Pearson

October 2023 © Simba Information v

PowerSchool

Renaissance Learning

Savvas Learning

Scholastic

Stride

PREK-12 COMPANIES' FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN 2022 AND EARLY 2023

Table 46. PreK-12 Performance Index Most Recently Reported Fiscal Years

Growth Drivers to Watch

Goodheart-Willcox Delays Reporting

Looking Ahead to Fiscal 2023

Table 47. PreK-12 Performance Index, Latest Partial Fiscal Year (% change)

PreK-12 Market Outperforms Publishing as a Whole

STOCK PRICE TRENDS IN 2022-2023

The Year 2023: First Half

Table 48. Public Education Company Stock Index, January 2022-June 2023 (opening & closing prices and % change)

Robust Stock Issuance and Repurchase Activity

Trend Toward Private Ownership Continues

SPACs and IPOs Cool

M&A ACTIVITY IN 2022 AND FIRST HALF OF 2023

M&A Activity in PreK-12 Education Steady in 2022

Table 49. M&A Activity Involving Suppliers of PreK-12 Educational Solutions, 2022

Industry Trends Drive Acquisition Activity

First Half of 2023 Shows a Slowing of M&A Activity

Table 50. M&A Activity Involving Suppliers of PreK-12 Educational Solutions, First Seven Months of Calendar Year 2023

INTEREST FROM PRIVATE EQUITY SLOWS

Table 51. Selected Private Equity Investments in PreK-12 Education, 2022

More Slowing in First Half of 2023

Table 52. Selected Private Equity Investments in PreK-12 Education, First Half of Calendar Year 2023

Private Equity Portfolios Maintain Education Holdings

Table 53. Selected Private Equity Investors in PreK-12 Education, 2023

CHAPTER 5: COMPANY PROFILES

BOXLIGHT

CAMBIUM LEARNING

CENGAGE

DISCOVERY EDUCATION

GOODHEART-WILLCOX

HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT

KAHOOT!

vi October 2023 © Simba Information

MCGRAW HILL

PEARSON

POWERSCHOOL

RENAISSANCE LEARNING

SAVVAS LEARNING COMPANY

SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION

STRIDE

CONCLUSION

Have a question?
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Jeroen Van Heghe

Manager - EMEA

+32-2-535-7543

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Christine Sirois

Manager - Americas

+1-860-674-8796

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