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Transmission and Distribution Utility Networks & Equipment Markets Forecast 2012-50

Abstract

A New Approach

StatPlan T&DD forecasts general demand for transmission and distribution equipment within utilities to 2050, utilising the same principles as our generation forecasting tool. For the short term period to 2017, we have forecasts by capex for transformers, switchgear, cables, conductors, insulators, steel pylons and transmission poles, all presented globally, regionally and by major country.

The T&DD forecasts include the following:

  • Market drivers for transmission and distribution
  • Transmission and distribution line lengths historical and forecast to 2050
  • Regional analysis of transmission line length development to 2050
  • Regional analysis of distribution line length development to 2050
  • Country analysis
  • The transformer capacity demand cycle
  • Global installed base of transformers and forecast to 2050
  • Ownership of power and distribution transformers
  • Ratio of transformers to generation capacity
  • T&D losses, globally and by region
  • Background to the Smart Grid
  • The utility landscape by country
  • The manufacturing landscape, summary of market shares
  • Equipment markets by product category
  • Capital expenditure forecasts to 2050, globally and regionally
  • Appendix of country by country breakdown for T&D line lengths
  • Appendix of country by country breakdown for transformer installed capacity

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. THE ESTIMATION OF DEMAND

  • 2.1 New lines and capacity
  • 2.2 Asset based renewal (ABR)
  • 2.3 Historical database

3. MARKET DRIVERS FOR TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

  • 3.1 Capacity expansion
  • 3.2 Improvements and developments in technology
  • 3.3 Replacement of aged assets
  • 3.4 Reduction of losses
  • 3.5 Demographic factors

4. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION LINES

  • 4.1 Global growth and forecast to 2050, summary
  • 4.2 Global growth and forecast to 2050, transmission versus distribution, summary

5. TRANSMISSION LINES; REGIONAL ANALYSIS

  • 5.1 Europe
  • 5.2 CIS
  • 5.3 Middle East
  • 5.4 Africa
  • 5.5 Asia - Pacific
  • 5.6 North America
  • 5.7 Latin America

6. DISTRIBUTION LINES; REGIONAL ANALYSIS

  • 6.1 Europe
  • 6.2 CIS
  • 6.3 Middle East
  • 6.4 Africa
  • 6.5 Asia - Pacific
  • 6.6 North America
  • 6.7 Latin America

7. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION LINE LENGTHS BY COUNTRY

8. UNDERGROUND CABLES

  • 8.1 Drivers of demand for underground cables
  • 8.2 Cost
  • 8.3 Urbanisation
  • 8.4 Regional analysis

9. THE TRANSFORMER CAPACITY DEMAND CYCLE

10. THE INSTALLED BASE OF TRANSFORMERS AND DEMAND

11. THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS

  • 11.1 Four key stages
  • 11.2 Types of transformer

12. OWNERSHIP OF POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERS

13. THE RATIO OF TRANSFORMERS TO GENERATION CAPACITY

  • 13.1 Significance of the ratios
  • 13.2 Ratios by region and country
  • 13.3 Utility power and distribution transformer capacity by country

14. GENERATION, TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION LOSSES

  • 14.1 The nature of loss
  • 14.2 Europe
  • 14.3 CIS
  • 14.4 Middle East
  • 14.5 Africa
  • 14.6 Asia - Pacific
  • 14.7 North America
  • 14.8 Central and South America

15. THE SMART GRID

  • 15.1 Background
  • 15.2 Current deficiencies of grids
  • 15.3 The characteristics of the Smart Grid
  • 15.4 The technologies of the Smart Grid

16. THE UTILITY LANDSCAPE

  • 16.1 Differing structures for electricity supply
  • 16.2 Commentary by region

17. THE MANUFACTURING LANDSCAPE

18. EQUIPMENT MARKETS

  • 18.1 The global picture
  • 18.2 The China effect
  • 18.3 Product category growth
  • 18.4 Regional distribution of product categories

19. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

  • 19.1 Considerations for forecasting capex
  • 19.2 Global capex 2010 - 2050
  • 19.3 Regional analysis of current position and forecasts to 2050
  • 19.4 Europe
  • 19.5 CIS
  • 16.6 Middle East
  • 19.7 North Africa
  • 19.8 Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 19.9 Asia - Pacific
  • 16.10 North America
  • 16.11 Latin America
  • 19.12 Definition of capex expenditure

LIST OF CHARTS

  • Figure 1: Diagram of new plus asset base renewals of lines and capacity
  • Figure 2: Growth in electrified households, selected countries 1900-2050
  • Figure 3: Percent of population in urban areas, 1960-2010 by region
  • Figure 4: Installed transmission and distribution lines, 1900 to 2050, km
  • Figure 5: Global installed transmission lines and demand 1945-2050, thousand km
  • Figure 6: Global installed distribution lines and demand 1945-2050, thousand km
  • Figure 7: World transmission line length total demand, new and ABR, thousand km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 8: Transmission demand, thousand km in 5 year segments 1945-2050
  • Figure 9: Comparison of regions: Percent share of current and future transmission line length in forecast period (km length)
  • Figure 10: European transmission line length demand in thousand km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 11: CIS transmission line length demand in thousand km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 12: Middle East transmission line length demand in thousand km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 13: African transmission line length demand in thousand km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 14: Asia Pacific transmission line length demand in thousand km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 15: North American transmission line length demand in thousand km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 16: Latin American transmission line length demand in thousand km, 5 year segments1940 to 2050
  • Figure 17: Comparison of regions: Percent share of current and future distribution line length in forecast period (km length)
  • Figure 18: World distribution line length demand in km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 19: Distribution demand, thousand km in 5 year segments 1940-2050
  • Figure 20: European distribution line length demand in km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 21: CIS distribution line length demand in km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 22: Middle East distribution line length demand in km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 23: African distribution line length demand in km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 24: Asia Pacific distribution line length demand in km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 25: North American distribution line length demand in km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 26: Latin American distribution line length demand in km, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 27: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total % of the network in European countries
  • Figure 28: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total percent of the network in CIS countries
  • Figure 29: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total percent of the network in MENA countries
  • Figure 30: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total % of the network in Asia Pacific countries
  • Figure 31: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total % of the network in Pacific countries
  • Figure 32: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total % of each voltage class in European countries
  • Figure 33: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total % of each voltage class in CIS countries
  • Figure 34: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total % of each voltage class in MENA countries
  • Figure 35: HV, MV and LV underground cable as a total % of each voltage class in Asian countries
  • Figure 36: HV, MV and LV c underground able as a total % of each voltage class in Pacific countries
  • Figure 37: Global installed transformation capacity and demand 1945 to 2050, GVA
  • Figure 38: Global utility transformation capacity installed base, GVA, 1900 to 2050
  • Figure 39: Global utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 40: Utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 41: European utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 42: CIS utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 43: Middle East utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 44: African utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 45: Asia Pacific utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 46: North American Global utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 47: Latin American utility transformation capacity demand, 5 year segments 1940 to 2050
  • Figure 48: The UK Electrical Power Transmission and Distribution System
  • Figure 49: Generating capacity MW, total utility transformation capacity MVA 2010
  • Figure 50: Generating capacity MW, utility power and distribution transformation capacity MVA 2010
  • Figure 51: Technical T&D Losses, % of generation, Europe
  • Figure 52: Technical T&D Losses, % of generation, CIS
  • Figure 53: Technical T&D Losses, % of generation, Middle East
  • Figure 54: Technical T&D Losses, % of generation, Africa
  • Figure 55: Technical T&D Losses, % of generation, Asia Pacific
  • Figure 56: Technical T&D Losses, % of generation, North America
  • Figure 57: Technical T&D Losses, % of generation, Central and South America
  • Figure 58: Market shares of major vendor companies in T&D market, 2010
  • Figure 59: Global T&D Equipment markets, total and excluding China, Constant $2010 and Current $, 2010-2017
  • Figure 60: Transformer markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 61: Switchgear markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 62: Cable > 1 kV markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 63: Bare conductor > 1 kV markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 64: Insulators and lightning arresters markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 65: Jumpers, spacers and other fittings markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 66: Steel transmission pylon markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 67: Distribution pole markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 68: Meter markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 69: Automation & Control markets in current $ by region, 2010-2017
  • Figure 70: Global Capital Expenditure Requirement, Transmission and Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 71: Global Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 72: Global Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 73: Global Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010 and current$), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 74: European Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010) 2010-2050
  • Figure 75: European Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 76: European Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 77: CIS Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010) 2010-2050
  • Figure 78: CIS Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050)
  • Figure 79: CIS Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 80: Middle Eastern Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010), 2010- 2050
  • Figure 81: Middle Eastern Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 82: Middle Eastern Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 83: North African Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010) 2010-2050
  • Figure 84: North African Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 85: North African Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 86: Sub-Saharan African Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010), 2010-2050
  • Figure 87: Sub-Saharan African Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 88: Sub-Saharan African Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 89: Asia Pacific Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010) 2010-2050
  • Figure 90: Asia Pacific Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 91: Asia Pacific Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 92: North American Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010) 2010-2050
  • Figure 93: North American Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 94: North American Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 95: LAC Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission and Distribution (real $2010), 2010 - 2050
  • Figure 96: LAC Capital Expenditure Requirement on Transmission (real $2010), 2010 to 2050
  • Figure 97: LAC Capital Expenditure Requirement on Distribution (real $2010), 2010 to 2050

LIST OF TABLES

  • Table 1: Transmission lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Europe
  • Table 2: Distribution lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Europe
  • Table 3: Transmission lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - CIS
  • Table 4: Distribution lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - CIS
  • Table 5: Transmission lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Middle East
  • Table 6: Distribution lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Middle East
  • Table 7: Transmission lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Africa
  • Table 8: Distribution lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Africa
  • Table 9: Transmission lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Asia Pacific
  • Table 10: Distribution lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Asia Pacific
  • Table 11: Transmission lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Americas
  • Table 12: Distribution lines by voltage and overhead/cable km - Americas
  • Table 13: Underground cable as a percent of each voltage class and as a percent of the network in Europe
  • Table 14: HV, MV and LV underground cable lengths km for each voltage class in Europe
  • Table 15: HV, MV and LV underground cable lengths km for each voltage class in CIS
  • Table 16: HV, MV and LV underground cable lengths km for each voltage class in MENA
  • Table 17: HV, MV and LV underground cable lengths km for each voltage class in Asia
  • Table 18: HV, MV and LV underground cable lengths km for each voltage class in Pacific
  • Table 19: Ratios of utility PT capacity MVA, DT capacity MVA to generating capacity MW Europe
  • Table 20: Ratios of utility PT capacity MVA, DT capacity MVA to generating capacity MW CIS
  • Table 21: Ratios of utility PT capacity MVA, DT capacity MVA to generating capacity MW - Africa and Middle East
  • Table 22: Ratios of utility PT capacity MVA, DT capacity MVA to generating capacity MW - Asia Pacific
  • Table 23: Ratios of utility PT capacity MVA, DT capacity MVA to generating capacity MW - Americas
  • Table 24: Utility Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country, 2010 - Europe
  • Table 25: Utility Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country, 2010 - CIS
  • Table 26: Utility Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA)by country, 2010 - Africa and Middle East
  • Table 27: Utility Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country, 2010 - Asia Pacific
  • Table 28: Utility Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country, 2010 - Americas
  • Table 29: Composition of the World Electrical Utility sector by Country and Ownership
  • Table 30: The World's Utility Landscape
  • Table 31: Market shares of major vendor companies in T&D market, 2010
  • Table 32: Global T&D Equipment markets, total and excluding China, Constant $2010 and Current $, 2010-2017
  • Table 33: Global T&D Equipment markets, Current $, 2010-2017
  • Table 34: Global T&D Equipment markets excluding China, Current $, 2010-2017
  • Table 35: Global T&D Equipment markets by region, Current $, 2010-2017
  • Table 36: Total equipment markets by country, Current $, 2010-17
  • Table 37: Capex by region, $ billions, 2010; mix of capex by percent transmission and distribution
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