Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers--2004

This publication has been discontinued on July 19, 2011.

Introduction

January 22, 2003 -- Mountain View, CA -- The recovery in the telecom sector and growing use of 10 Gigabit optical links for enterprise and storage applications will drive steady growth in the long wavelength laser and transceiver market. However, 2004 will be critical for the suppliers, with well over 40 companies clamoring for orders spread among a dizzying number of new and existing segments, and surprisingly little consolidation in the hodge-podge of companies so far. These findings are presented in a new study just released by Strategies Unlimited, Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers--2004, to be presented Monday at the Laser Focus World Marketplace Seminar in San Jose, California. Other findings in the report include the following.

• Lead times are extending for the first time in several years, after the market fell by 80% from its peak to nearly $500 million in 2003. It will recover in 2004 and grow at a compound annual rate of 24% by 2008. The recovery will be boosted by the growing use of optical links in LANs and SANs that will spill over to create new demand for long wavelength transceivers in campus, and to a lesser extent, metro networks.
• Promising opportunities include emerging form factors and new approaches to carry 10 Gigabit traffic over legacy multimode fiber. These latter developments will drive the use of long wavelength transceivers where short wavelength transceivers have been traditionally used.
• Two suppliers associated with enterprise network products, Agilent and Finisar, led sales in 2003. Such datacom transceiver supplie rs are pushing toward higher-end products, while some traditionally high-end telecom suppliers are seeking to capture sales to enterprise equipment makers.
• In all, dozens of companies are competing over a changing array of segments. Because every supplier has cut back severely, no company can feel secure about its own ability to recover, or in the case of start-ups, just to make it to first base.

"The saying that 'past performance is no indication of future behavior' is especially apt in this market," says Tom Hausken, director of communication component research at Strategies Unlimited. "It is impossible to predict who will eventually emerge as the new market leaders, but a change in the lineup is certain, and we are seeing some of that already."

Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers--2004 reviews the applications, markets, technology, and suppliers of these lasers and transceivers products, and presents forecasts by application and type, including unit sales and price projections, along with estimates of revenues and market shares of key suppliers.

1. Key Findings

• 1.1. The report
• 1.2. The forecasts
• 1.3. The suppliers

2. Methodology and Scope

• 2.1. Scope of the study
• 2.2. Methodology
• 2.3. Lasers and the supply chain

3. Transceiver Product Differentiation

• 3.1 Protocols
• 3.2 10 Gbps electrical line interfaces
• 3.3 LX4 and EDC for multimode fiber
• 3.4 Form factors
• 3.5 The rise and fall of transponders
• 3.6 Connectors
• 3.7 Subcomponent packages
• 3.8 Laser operating regimes
• 3.9 Long wavelength laser achievements
• 3.10 Incumbent vs. emerging laser technologies
• 3.11 Issues for VCSELs and other emerging lasers
• 3.12 Approaches to long wavelength VCSELs
• 3.13 Other emerging laser approaches

4 Unit Forecasts

• 4.1 Laser installations and types of networks
• 4.2 Distribution of lasers by reach
• 4.3 Long haul bandwidth growth
• 4.4 The metro bottleneck that isn�ft
• 4.5 The explosion in enterprise networking
• 4.6 Unit forecast by protocol
• 4.7 Unit forecast by reach and data rate
• 4.8 Distribution of 1310 vs. 1550-nm lasers
• 4.9 Distribution of lasers by device type
• 4.10 Distribution of lasers by form factor

5 Price forcast

• 5.1 General price forecast
• 5.2 General trends in laser prices
• 5.3 Quantities and laser prices
• 5.4 China prices vs. western prices
• 5.5 Vertical integration and laser prices
• 5.6 Data rate and laser prices
• 5.7 Wavelength and laser prices
• 5.8 Reach and laser prices
• 5.9 Output power and laser prices
• 5.10 DWDM, CWDM and non-WDM laser prices
• 5.11 Fixed and tunable laser prices
• 5.12 Protocol and laser prices
• 5.13 Package type and laser prices
• 5.14 Device technology and laser prices
• 5.15 Manufacturing cost and subcomponent prices
• 5.16 Selected laser subcomponent prices

6 Revenue forecasts

• 6.1 Revenue forecast by reach and data rate
• 6.2 Revenue forecast by form factor
• 6.3 Revenue forecast by data rate
• 6.4 Revenue forecast by device type

7 Suppliers

• 7.1 Supplier revenues and market shares
• 7.2 Laser shipments by region of supplier
• 7.3 Laser shipments by region of customer
• 7.4 Tracking suppliers and products
• 7.5 Suppliers of long wavelength transceivers
• 7.6 Merchant suppliers of laser subcomponents
• 7.7 Suppliers of tunable lasers
• 7.8 Suppliers of emerging technologies

8 Appendix: Useful Resources

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