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Canadian Payments Forecast - 2013

Canadian Payments Forecast - 2013, is an authoritative and independent strategic review, analysis and market forecast on Canada's consumer payments industry. This annual update provides in-depth analysis of the trends influencing the payments industry, and provides forecasts for all major consumer payment types, including emerging payment mechanisms such as contactless, mobile and online payments.

NEW this year is the inclusion of findings from the TSI Payments Survey conducted amongst more than 4,000 Canadian adult consumers. The TSI Payments Survey focuses on Mobile, Contactless, Cashback, P2P Payments and Remittances.

NEW this year is also the inclusion of key indicator tables for each payment modality covered in the report.

Key questions answered in Canadian Payments Forecast, 2013 include:

  • What is the prognosis for cash, cheques and traditional electronic payment instruments?
  • To what extent have contactless payments gained traction in the Canadian market, and how is the Canadian contactless market likely to develop?
  • How will the mobile payments market develop in Canada over the next five years?
  • How important is the gift card market in Canada?
  • What are the prospects for remittance payments in Canada?
  • How is the P2P market developing in Canada?
  • How is the regulatory environment in the payments industry in Canada likely to develop over the next five years?

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

INTRODUCTION

  • Objectives of the Study
  • Research Methodology
  • A Note on Forecasts
  • Currency
  • Structure and Content of the Report
  • Acknowledgements

THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC CONTEXT

  • Economic Growth
  • Personal Consumption Expenditure
  • Retail Sales in Canada

PAYMENTS IN CANADA

  • Introduction
  • Cash Payments
  • Cheque Payments
  • Debit Card Payments
  • Credit Card Payments
  • Contactless Payments
  • Online Payments
  • Bill Payments and Transfers
  • Mobile Payments
  • Prepaid and Gift Cards
  • Person-to-Person (P2P) Payments
  • Remittances
  • Consumer Payments in Perspective

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CANADIAN PAYMENTS INDUSTRY

  • Fraud
  • Credit Card Fraud
  • Debit Card Fraud
  • Counterfeiting
  • Regulatory Forces
  • Code of Conduct
  • The Competition Tribunal Case
  • Prepaid Regulations
  • Regulations Amending Credit Business Practices

PROSPECTS FOR CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN CANADA

  • Prospects for The Economy
  • Payments Forecasts
  • Cash Forecast
  • Cheque Payments Forecast
  • Debit Card Payments Forecast
  • Credit Card Payments Forecast
  • Contactless Payments Forecast
  • Online Payments Forecast
  • Bill Payments and Transfers Forecast
  • Mobile Payments Forecast
  • Prepaid Cards and Gift Cards Forecast
  • P2P Payments Forecast
  • Remittances Forecast
  • Payment Forecasts in Context

APPENDIX - Supplementary Data

  • Interac Cashback
  • Contactless Payments
  • Online Payments
  • Bill Payments and Transfers
  • Mobile Payments
  • P2P Payments
  • Remittances

List of Figures

  • Annual Change in GDP (1983-2012)
  • Components of Personal Consumption Expenditure (2012)
  • Annual Change in GDP and PCE (1986-2012)
  • Annual Real Change in Components of PCE (2004-2012)
  • Canadian Retail Sales by Sector (2012)
  • Nominal Growth in Retail Sales and GDP (2000-2012)
  • Growth in Retail Trade by Segment (CAGR: 2007-2012)Table 2: Cash Indicators
  • Canadian Bank Notes and Coins in Circulation (2000-2012)
  • Number of ABMs in Canada by Ownership (2000-2012)
  • Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABMs in Canada (2000-2012)
  • Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2000-2012)
  • Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2000-2012)
  • Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000-2012)
  • Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2001-2012)
  • Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly Users (2001-2012)
  • Volume and Value of Interac Debit Transactions (2001-2012)
  • Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2001-2012)
  • Number of Credit Cards in Circulation in Canada (2012)
  • Comparison of Major Credit Card Activity in Canada (2012)
  • Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2001-2012)
  • Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2001-2012)
  • Volume and Value of Credit Card Purchase Transactions (2001-2012)
  • Volume and Value of Credit Card Cash Advance Transactions (2001-2012)
  • Canadian Credit Card Loans (2001-2012)
  • Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and MasterCard (2001-2012)
  • Contactless Payment Card Users and Terminals (2007-2012)
  • Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2007-2012)
  • Awareness and Ownership of Contactless Card Brands in Canada
  • Usage of Contactless Payment Cards, by Brand
  • Usage of Contactless Payment Cards at Merchants
  • Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2001-2012)
  • Use of Devices for the On-line Shopping Journey
  • Categories of Canadian Online Purchases
  • Share of Expenditure, by Region, Amongst Canadians who Purchase Online
  • Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2002-2012)
  • Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2002-2012)
  • Growth by Delivery Channel and Transaction Type (CAGR: 2007-2012)
  • Number of Mobile Subscribers in Canada (2001-2012)
  • Smart Phone Operating System Ownership
  • Services Available on Smart Phone
  • Payments made Using a Smart Phone
  • Showrooming by Canadian Smart Phone Subscribers
  • Canadian Prepaid/Gift Card Market (2006-2012)
  • Open-Loop Prepaid Card Market (2012)
  • Share of Purchased Value by Retailer Type, Closed-Loop Gift Cards: Canada (2012)
  • Average Spend per Closed-Loop Gift Card by Category (2011 vs. 2012)
  • Average Gift Card Overspend by Retailer Type (2012)
  • Reasons for Purchasing an E-Gift Card (2012)
  • Volume and Value of P2P Transactions (2008-2012)
  • P2P Services Used in Canada
  • Value and Volume of International Remittances (2008-2012)
  • Services Used for International Remittances
  • Share of Value of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type (2001-2012)
  • Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument Type (2001-2012)
  • Breakdown of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2012)
  • Growth in Value of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2007-2012; 2011-2012)
  • Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002-2012)
  • Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Detected (1996-2012)
  • Forecast Real Growth in GDP (2013-2017)
  • Consumer Confidence Index (Dec. 2006 - Apr. 2013)
  • Forecast Real Growth in GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Real Growth in Retail Sales and PCE (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Number of ABMs in Canada (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABMs in Canada (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2013-2017)
  • Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly Users (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Value and Volume of Interac Debit Transactions (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2001-2012)
  • Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and MasterCard (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Credit Card Purchase Transactions (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Credit Card Cash Advance Transactions (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Contactless Payment Card Users and Terminals (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Contactless Payment Values and Volumes ( 2013-2017)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2012-2017)
  • Forecast Number of Mobile Subscribers in Canada (2013-2017)
  • Forecast NFC Handset Penetration in Canada (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Purchased Value of Open-Loop Prepaid and Closed-Loop Gift Cards (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of P2P Transactions (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Value and Volume of International Remittances (2012-2017)
  • Forecast Share of Value of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Number of Payment Transaction by Payment Instrument Type (2013-2017)
  • Forecast Annual Growth Rates for Primary Payment Instruments (CAGR % p.a.: 2012-2017)
  • Forecast Growth for Secondary Payment Segments (CAGR: 2012-2017)

APPENDIX

  • Distribution of Amount Withdrawn: Interac Cashback
  • Distribution of the Number Interac Cashback Withdrawals (P6M)
  • Distribution of Contactless Payment Transaction Values
  • Distribution of Contactless Payment Usage Frequency
  • Reasons for Shopping Online
  • Reasons Driving the Decision Not to Purchase Online
  • Concerns Amongst Canadian Shoppers and Buyers Regarding Online Purchasers
  • Mobile Phone Penetration in Canada (2000-2012)
  • Ownership of Mobile Devices
  • Frequency of Sending P2P Payments
  • Distribution of Number of P2P Services Used
  • Distribution of P2P Transfer Values
  • Distribution of International Remittance Frequency
  • Distribution of Remittance Services Used
  • Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing Through the ACSS (1990-2012)
  • Share of Volume of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing Through the ACSS (1990-2012)

List of Tables

  • Economic Indicators
  • Cash Indicators
  • Personal Cheques Indicators
  • Debit Card Payments Indicators
  • Credit Card Payments Indicators
  • Primary Issuers of Visa and MasterCard in Canada (2013)
  • Relative Shares of Major Credit Card Brands in Canada (2012)
  • Visa and MasterCard Acquirers in Canada (2012)
  • Contactless Payment Indicators
  • Online Payment Indicators
  • Transfer and Bill Payment Indicators
  • Mobile Payment Indicators
  • Prepaid Indicators
  • P2P Payment Indicators
  • Remittances Indicators
  • Primary Payment Instruments
  • Secondary Payment Instruments
  • Fraud Indicators
  • Interac's EMV Migration Targets
  • Forecast Economic Indicators
  • Forecast Primary Payment Instruments
  • Forecast Secondary Payment Instruments
  • Forecast Cash Indicators
  • Forecast Cheque Payment Indicators
  • Forecast Debit Indicators
  • Forecast Credit Indicators
  • Forecast Contactless Payment Indicators
  • Forecast Online Payment Indicators
  • Forecast Transfers and Bill Payment Indicators
  • Forecast Mobile Payment Indicators
  • Forecast Prepaid Indicators
  • Forecast P2P Payment Indicators
  • Forecast Remittances Indicators
  • Forecast Primary Payment Instruments
  • Forecast Secondary Payment Instruments

APPENDIX

  • Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel
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