The Road to 4G and NGN Wireless IP Migration Paths

This publication has been discontinued on July 19, 2011.

Introduction

Study Summary

"The Road to 4G and NGN: Wireless IP Migration Paths" examines leading migration paths to 4G and Next Generation Networks. In doing so it looks at various definitions of 4G and NGN as well as the technologies that are expected to enhance future networks. A detailed assessment of the fixed and mobile wireless markets is also included.

Analysis is provided for 802.16, 802.20, HSDPA and subsequent UMTS releases, UMTS TDD, and proprietary broadband wireless technologies such as FLASH-OFDM, all which are considered steps towards 4G. Developments in Japan, China, and India are also monitored and the future role of technologies such as smart antennas, OFDM, software defined radio, and mesh networking is assessed. Subscribers, device shipments, and base station deployments are quantified and detailed comparative analysis of leading 4G candidates is provided.

Questions Addressed

• What is 4G
• Why are mobile carriers assessing alternatives to 3G
• What are next generation networks (NGNs)
• What will be the impact of Asian-based 4G development efforts
• Is additional fragmentation inevitable
• Which technology represents the best investment
• How do new technologies compare
• Will fixed and mobile systems converge
• Can 802.16 impact the mobile space
• Will HSDPA stem advances of alternative technologies
• Will mobile technologies replace 802.16 for fixed applications

Quantifies

• 802.16 infrastructure, client devices, subscribers and revenues for each
• 802.20 infrastructure, client devices, subscribers and revenues for each
• HSDPA infrastructure, clients devices, subscribers and revenues
• UMTS TDD infrastructure, client devices, subscribers and revenues for each
• Proprietary systems, infrastructure, client devices, subs and revenues for each
• WCDMA subscribers, Infrastructure, device shipments and revenues for each

Study Topics

• Technologies
• Applications
• Regions
• Vendors

Table of Contents

Section One

Executive Summary

• 1.1 Conclusions
• 1.2 Observation Summary
  • 1.2.1 An imminent disruption
  • 1.2.2 Market defined 4G
  • 1.2.3 Operators are open to new technologies
  • 1.2.4 Mobile web remains a niche application
  • 1.2.5 Applications, applications, applications
  • 1.2.6 Asia is ready to strike out on its own
  • 1.2.7 Fragmented future
  • 1.2.8 Convergence
  • 1.2.9 Cost remains king
  • 1.2.10 Battle to define next generation
• 1.3 Next Generation Network Technologies Competitive Analysis
  • 1.3.1 Flarion FLASH-OFDM
    • 1.3.1.1 Flarion FLASH-OFDM strengths
    • 1.3.1.2 Flarion FLASH-OFDM weaknesses
  • 1.3.2 802.20
    • 1.3.2.1 802.20 strengths
    • 1.3.2.2 802.20 weaknesses
  • 1.3.3 802.16
    • 1.3.3.1 802.16 strengths
    • 1.3.3.2 802.16 weaknesses
  • 1.3.4 High-Speed Data Packet Access (HSDPA)
    • 1.3.4.1 HSDPA strengths
    • 1.3.4.2 HSDPA weaknesses
  • 1.3.5 UMTS time division duplexing (TDD)
    • 1.3.5.1 UMTS TDD strengths
    • 1.3.5.2 UMTS TDD weaknesses
• 1.4 Summary Figures
  • 1.4.1 Next generation networks world subscribers
  • 1.4.2 World subscribers by technology
  • 1.4.3 World service revenues
  • 1.4.4 World service revenues by technology
  • 1.4.5 World device shipments
  • 1.4.6 World device shipments by technology
  • 1.4.7 World device revenues
  • 1.4.8 World device revenues by technology
  • 1.4.9 World cumulative base station deployments
  • 1.4.10 World cumulative base station deployments by technology
  • 1.4.11 World base station revenues
  • 1.4.12 World base station revenues by technology
  • 1.4.13 The winners are

Section Two

4G and Next Generation Networks

Background, Objectives and Rationale

• 2.1 4G Definitions
  • 2.1.1 IP network
  • 2.1.2 Data capabilities
  • 2.1.3 Network aggregation
  • 2.1.4 Converged platform
  • 2.1.5 Economic improvements
  • 2.1.6 Open platform
  • 2.1.7 Standard bodies
  • 2.1.8 Definition summary
• 2.2 Next Generation Network
• 2.3 4G Migration Paths and Candidates
  • 2.3.1 802.16
  • 2.3.2 802.20
  • 2.3.3 UMTS
  • 2.3.4 NTT DoCoMo
  • 2.3.5 4G proprietary technologies here today
• 2.4 4G Services
• 2.5 4G Component Characteristics
• 2.6 Discussion
  • 2.6.1 New migration plans beyond 3G
  • 2.6.2 Some dissatisfaction with 3G
  • 2.6.3 Alternative means to address short-term capacity shortages
  • 2.6.4 Differentiation in competitive markets
  • 2.6.5 Savings
  • 2.6.6 Too much, too late
  • 2.6.7 Telecommunications, a computing application

Section Three

802.20 Standard

• 3.1 The 802.20 Standard History
• 3.2 Design Objectives
• 3.3 Target Segments
• 3.4 Target Bands
• 3.5 Potential Operators
• 3.6 Participants
• 3.7 Service Range
• 3.8 Time Table
• 3.9 Proposed Features
• 3.10 Product Form Factor
• 3.11 Discussion
  • 3.11.1 Market impact
  • 3.11.2 Political considerations
  • 3.11.3 Complement or competitor
  • 3.11.4 Why the market needs another wireless standard
  • 3.11.5 How 802.20 is different from the other wireless standards
  • 3.11.6 Is 802.20 arriving too late
• 3.12 Evaluation
• 3.13 802.20 Expectations
  • 3.13.1 Global 802.20 subscribers
  • 3.13.2 Global 802.20 service revenues
  • 3.13.3 Global 802.20 device shipments
  • 3.13.4 Global 802.20 device revenues
  • 3.13.5 Global 802.20 base station deployments
  • 3.13.6 Global 802.20 base station revenues

Section Four

802.16 / WiMAX

• 4.1 Definition
• 4.2 802.16 Variations and Background
  • 4.2.1 802.16
  • 4.2.2 802.16a Task Group
  • 4.2.3 802.16 Task Group C
  • 4.2.4 802.16 Task Group D
  • 4.2.5 802.16 Task Group E
• 4.3 802.16 and HIPERMAN
• 4.4 Participation
• 4.5 Wi MAX
• 4.6 Market segments
• 4.7 WiMAX Capabilities/Expectations
  • 4.7.1 Bandwidth
  • 4.7.2 Range
  • 4.7.3 Spectral efficiency
  • 4.7.4 Bands
  • 4.7.5 Channel sizes
  • 4.7.6 MAC and services
  • 4.7.7 N-LoS
• 4.8 Competitive options
  • 4.8.1 Proprietary systems
  • 4.8.2 802.20
  • 4.8.3 802.11
  • 4.8.4 Mobile standards
  • 4.8.5 Other standards activity
• 4.9 Time to Market
  • 4.9.1 Chipsets
  • 4.9.2 Equipment
• 4.10 Pricing
  • 4.10.1 CPE
  • 4.10.2 Base stations
  • 4.10.3 Chipsets
• 4.11 Product Attributes
  • 4.11.1 Air interface
  • 4.11.2 Duplexing
  • 4.11.3 Bands
  • 4.11.4 Other features
• 4.12 Notes on the BWA Sector
  • 4.12.1 An early history of disappointment
  • 4.12.2 Causes
    • 4.12.2.1 Limited capabilities
    • 4.12.2.2 High costs
    • 4.12.2.3 No volumes and standards
    • 4.12.2.4 Over-aggressive expansion
    • 4.12.2.5 Lack of differentiation
    • 4.12.2.6 Lack of marketing efficiencies
    • 4.12.2.7 Lack of network scale
  • 4.12.3 Solutions
    • 4.12.3.1 Technical solutions
    • 4.12.3.2 Business model solutions
    • 4.12.3.3 Alliances with municipalities
    • 4.12.3.4 Mobile and fixed wireless convergence
    • 4.12.3.5 Standards implemented and followed
• 4.13 802.16 and the road to mobility
  • 4.13.1 Politics within the IEEE
  • 4.13.2 Mobility is no cakewalk
  • 4.13.3 Operator trials
  • 4.13.4 Scale
• 4.14 Discussion
  • 4.14.1 Operator participation and support
  • 4.14.2 System supplier support
  • 4.14.3 802.16/WiMAX solves the problem
  • 4.14.4 802.16 as 4G
  • 4.14.5 Time to market considerations
  • 4.14.6 WiMAX and WiBro
• 4.15 Figures
  • 4.15.1 Global WiMAX users and service revenues
  • 4.15.2 Global WiMAX service revenues
  • 4.15.3 Global WiMAX CPE shipments
  • 4.15.4 Global WiMAX CPE revenues
  • 4.15.5 Global WiMAX CPE shipments by revision (802.16e, 802.16d)
  • 4.15.6 Global WiMAX base station deployments
  • 4.15.7 Global WiMAX base station revenues
  • 4.15.8 Global WiMAX chipset shipments and revenues

Section Five

Next Generation Networks

Proprietary and Otherwise

• 5.1 NGN history
• 5.2 NGN prospects
• 5.3 Solutions
• 5.3 ArrayComm, Inc.
  • 5.3.1 Background
  • 5.3.2 Products/technology
  • 5.3.3 Partners
  • 5.3.4 Developments
  • 5.3.5 Strategy
  • 5.3.6 Conclusion
• 5.4 Flarion Technologies
  • 5.4.1 Background
  • 5.4.2 Products/technology
  • 5.4.3 Partners
  • 5.4.4 Market Developments
  • 5.4.5 Strategy
  • 5.4.6 Conclusion
• 5.5 Navini Networks
  • 5.5.1 Background
  • 5.5.2 Products/technology
  • 5.5.3 Partners
  • 5.5.4 Developments
  • 5.5.5 Strategy
  • 5.5.6 Conclusion
• 5.6 NGN Conclusion
• 5.7 Figures
  • 5.7.1 Global subscribers by NGN vendors
  • 5.7.2 NGN global service revenues
  • 5.7.3 NGN global client terminal shipments
  • 5.7.4 NGN global terminal revenues
  • 5.7.5 NGN global base station deployments
  • 5.7.6 NGN global base station revenues

Section Six

UMTS HSDPA and Beyond

• 6.1 No Standing Still
• 6.2 Capabilities
• 6.3 Modifications
• 6.4 Upgrade Path
• 6.5 Vendor Support
• 6.6 Terminals: When and Where
• 6.7 Operators
• 6.8 Timing
• 6.9 Drivers
• 6.10 Beyond HSDPA
• 6.11 Discussion
  • 6.11.1 Willing participants
  • 6.11.2 Audience is large
  • 6.11.3 Global role
  • 6.11.4 Limitations
  • 6.11.5 HSDPA adds value to UMTS
  • 6.11.6 Real impact
• 6.12 Forecasts
  • 6.12.1 World WCDMA subscribers
  • 6.12.2 Global WCDMA device shipments
  • 6.12.3 Global WCDMA base station deployments
  • 6.12.4 Global HSDPA subscribers
  • 6.12.5 Global HSDPA service revenues
  • 6.12.6 HSDPA global device shipments
  • 6.12.7 HSDPA global device revenues
  • 6.12.8 Global HSDPA base station deployments

Section Seven

UMTS TDD (TD-CDMA)

• 7.1 UMTS TDD Background
• 7.2 Technology
  • 7.2.1 UMTS TDD capacity
  • 7.2.3 UMTS TDD channel size
  • 7.2.4 UMTS TDD mobility
  • 7.2.5 UMTS TDD core network
  • 7.2.6 UMTS TDD frequency bands
  • 7.2.7 TDD advantages
• 7.3 Support Base
• 7.4 UMTS TDD Devices
• 7.5 UMTS TDD Deployments
• 7.6 UMTS TDD Trials
• 7.7 IP Wireless
  • 7.7.1 Background
  • 7.7.2 Products/technology
• 7.8 Discussion
  • 7.8.1 Scale
  • 7.8.2 UMTS TDD is a standard
  • 7.8.3 TDD bands in Japan
  • 7.8.4 UMTS TDD availability
  • 7.8.5 UMTS TDD future improvements
• 7.9 UMTS TDD Evaluation
• 7.10 Figures
  • 7.10.1 Global UMTS TDD subscribers
  • 7.10.2 Global UMTS TDD service revenues
  • 7.10.3 Subscriber device shipments
  • 7.10.4 Subscriber device revenues
  • 7.10.5 Global UMTS TDD base station deployments
  • 7.10.6 Global UMTS TDD base station revenues

Section Eight

NTT DoCoMo (Japan)

• 8.1 Background
• 8.2 Do it Alone
• 8.3 Time Frame
• 8.4 4G Testing Attributes
  • 8.4.1 Air interface
  • 8.4.2 Throughput and bandwidth
  • 8.4.3 Band
  • 8.4.4 Duplexing
  • 8.4.5 Range
  • 8.4.6 Other technologies
• 8.5 Applications
• 8.6 Evaluation
• 8.7 Other Developments in Japan
  • 8.7.1 Vodafone
  • 8.7.2 TDD Spectrum

Section Nine

Developments within India

• 9.1 India Motivation for 4G
• 9.2 Market Assessment
  • 9.2.1 Population
  • 9.2.2 Economics
  • 9.2.3 Telecom status
  • 9.2.4 Available market
• 9.3 Existing BWA and 4G efforts
• 9.4 Evaluation

Section Ten

China Outlook

• 10.1 4G Motivations
• 10.2 Market Assessment
  • 10.2.1 Population
  • 10.2.2 Economic factors
  • 10.2.3 Telecommunications status
  • 10.2.4 Available market
• 10.3 Previous Stab at Standards: TD-SCDMA
• 10.4 4G Efforts
• 10.5 Evaluation

Section Eleven

Technology

• 11.1 Purpose
• 11.2 Air Interface Definitions
  • 11.2.1 CDMA
  • 11.2.2 TD-SCDMA
  • 11.2.3 WCDMA
  • 11.2.4 OFDM
  • 11.2.5 OFDMA
  • 11.2.6 OFDM with frequency hopping
  • 11.2.7 W-OFDM
  • 11.2.8 TDMA
• 11.3 Duplexing
  • 11.3.1 TDD
  • 11.3.2 FDD
• 11.4 Space-Time Processing and Smart Antenna Overview
  • 11.4.1 Smart antennas defined
  • 11.4.2 Space-time processing
  • 11.4.3 Terms and technologies
    • 11.4.3.1 Active smart antennas
    • 11.4.3.2 Beam forming
    • 11.4.3.3 Diversity combining
    • 11.4.3.4 Diversity (switched)
    • 11.4.3.5 Maximum ratio combining
    • 11.4.3.6 MIMO
    • 11.4.3.7 Passive smart antennas
    • 11.4.3.8 Polarization diversity
    • 11.4.3.9 Spatial diversity
    • 11.4.3.10 Spatial multiplexing
    • 11.4.3.11 Switched beam
• 11.5 Other Enablers
  • 11.5.1 Software defined radio
  • 11.5.2 Adaptive modulation
  • 11.5.3 Forward error correction
  • 11.5.4 Fast automatic repeat request
  • 11.5.5 Joint detection
  • 11.5.6 Mesh networking

Forecasts and Figures

• Table 1-1: Subscribers, Next Generation Networks - All Technologies World Market 2004-2010
• Table 1-2 Subscribers by Technology, Next Generation Networks World Market 2010
• Table 1-3: Service Revenues, Next Generation Networks - All Technologies World Market 2004-2010
• Table 1-4: Service Revenues by Technology, Next Generation Networks World Market 2010
• Table 1-5: Device Shipments, Next Generation Networks - All Technologies World Market 2004-2010
• Table 1-6: Device Shipments by Technology, Next Generation Networks World Market 2010
• Table 1-7: Device Revenues, Next Generation Networks - All Technologies World Market 2004-2010
• Table 1-8: Device Revenues by Technology, Next Generation Networks World Market 2010
• Table 1-9: Cumulative Base Station Deployments, Next Generation Networks - All Technologies, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 1-10: Base Stations Deployed by Technology, Next Generation Networks World Market 2010
• Table 1-11: Base Station Revenues, Next Generation Networks - All Technologies World Market 2004-2010
• Table 1-12: Base Station Revenues by Technology, Next Generation Networks World Market 2010

Section Three

• Table 3-1: 802.20 Subscribers, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 3-2: 802.20 Service Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 3-3: 802.20 User Device Shipments, World Market 2004-2009
• Table 3-4: 802.20 Device Revenues, World Market 2004-2009
• Table 3-5: 802.20 Base Stations, Annual and Cumulative Deployments World Market 2004 2010
• Table 3-6: 802.20 Infrastructure Revenues, World Market 2004 2010

Section Four

• Table 4-1: WiMAX Subscribers, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 4-2: WiMAX Service Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 4-3: WiMAX CPE Shipments, Annual and Cumulative World Forecast 2004-2010
• Table 4-4: WiMAX CPE Revenues, World Forecast 2004-2010
• Table 4-5: WiMAX CPE Shipments by Revision, 802.16d/a vs. 802.16e World Market 2004-2010
• Table 4-6: WiMAX Base Stations, Cumulative and Annual Deployments World Market 2004-2009
• Table 4-7: WiMAX Base Station Revenues, World Market 2004-2009
• Table 4-8: WiMAX Chipset Shipments and Revenues, World Market 2004-2010

Section Five

• Table 5-1: Proprietary Technology NGNs, Subscribers, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 5-2: Proprietary Technology NGNs, Service Revenues, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 5-3: Proprietary Technology NGNs, Device Shipments World Market 2003-2010
• Table 5-4: Proprietary Technology NGNs, Device Revenues, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 5-5: Proprietary Technology NGNs, Base Station Deployments Cumulative and Annual Deployments, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 5-6: Proprietary Technology NGNs, Base Station Revenues Annual and Cumlative, World Market 2003-2010

Section Six

• Table 6-1: WCDMA Subscribers, World Market 2003-2009
• Table 6-2: WCDMA Handset Shipments, World Market 2003-2009
• Table 6-3: WCDMA Base Station Deployments and Annual Shipments World Market 2003-2009
• Table 6-4: HSDPA Subscribers, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 6-5: HSDPA Service Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 6-6: HSDPA Device Shipments, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 6-7: HSDPA Device Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
• Table 6-8: HSDPA Base Stations, Annual Shipments and Cumulative Deployments World Market 2004-2010

Section Seven

• Table 7-1: UMTS TDD Forum Membership, Operators 2004
• Table 7-2: UMTS TDD Forum Membership, Vendors 2004
• Table 7-3: UMTS TDD Subscribers, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 7-4: UMTS TDD Service Revenues, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 7-5 UMTS TDD Device Shipments, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 7-6: UMTS TDD Device Revenues, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 7-7: UMTS TDD Base Station Deployments, Annual Shipments and Cumulative Deployments, World Market 2003-2010
• Table 7-8: UMTS TDD Infrastructure Revenues, World Market 2003-2010

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