PV TEM 2009 published by Yole Developpement in October, 2009. This report consists of 346 pages and the price starts from US $ 5290.
Abstract
EQUIPMENT MARKET
For several years, the Photovoltaic (PV) industry was primarily seen as an
outstanding financial investment, delivering a high-performance returnon-
investment (ROI) with limited risk. The objectives were simply to adapt the
production capacities to answer a high market demand. In this context,
Polysilicon and wafer producers, cell and module manufacturers were assured to
sell their entire production.
But 2009 has been quite particular as the financial crisis has not spared the
PV industry. The credit crunch, lower-thanexpected market growth, and a large
product offer have in fact forced companies to be more innovative than ever.
In this highly competitive market, only the companies able to provide better
products at a lower price will succeed. As a consequence the whole PV chain,
from polysilicon producers to module manufacturers, is working on new
technical solutions to reach grid parity and finally make PV a competitive
renewable energy source. Government incentives as well as new power grid
structure (e.g. smart grid) will contribute, in the coming years, in making PV
a viable alternative to conventional energy sources such as coal or nuclear.
As cost reduction has become one of the top priorities for equipment and
material suppliers, we are today seeing them partnering with cell
manufacturers to pull production cost down.
Worldwide investments in R&D as well as in cell production capacity have
reached an unprecedented level. Cell manufacturers will start benefiting from
economies of scale in the coming years, but innovation in the field of
material and equipment will remain a key parameter to sustain the growth.
Manufacturers will develop more and more new technologies based on
well-established techniques from various industries such as semiconductor,
display, printing, glass, etc.
Even with a slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2008, the market, boosted by
demand for thin-film equipment, was incredibly high that year. Yole is
estimating that total revenue exceeded 2.7 Billion euro. Until the end of 2009
and during 2010, because of strong overcapacities, total revenue is forecast
to decrease by 45% compared to 2008 to 1.5 Billion euro. Market demand is
forecast to come back after 2010 and will progressively impact the production
sites by increasing the fab utilization rates. Investments in fab extensions
and related equipment are expected to follow in 2011 although they will arrive
with a slight time lag behind the demand increase.
SINCE OUR LAST REPORT, THE INDUSTRY LANDSCAPE HAS BEEN DRASTICALLY MODIFIED:
A large number of companies invested polysilicon manufacturing capacity:
1. Incumbents such as Hemlock, Wacker and REC are in the process of
doubling even tripling their production capacity while keeping a low
manufacturing cost.
2. Motivated by a silicon shortage and high prepayments, a lot of
new players have purchased Siemens-type equipment and entered the market in
2009: DC Chemical, LDK, GCL Poly Energy, etc.
3. We also observed new developments in:
- Low-cost technologies such as Fluidized Bed Reactor with players like AE polysilicon, MEMC, or Peaksun
- Upgraded metallurgical grade promoted by Becancour, 6N Silicon, Dow Corning, etc.
The thin-film industry has also seen major announcements from Nanosolar
or Solyndra, setting performance at the next level up while decreasing the
cost per watt. Thanks to revolutionary cell designs and new production
concepts, the firms are now positioning themselves as challengers to First
Solar.
First Solar, considered by many as a true game-changer, definitely
demonstrated its strong leadership and managed to build a Giga-Watt factory in
just a few years. We also followed the various trends and alliances created by
the entrance of Applied Materials, Oerlikon Solar, Ulvac and the other OEM' s.
After a large run after thin-film equipment, a lower demand and a decrease of
the silicon price, we are now seeing an impact on sales in this domain.
PROCESSES DESCRIBED
Yole Developpement has studied and analysed the manufacturing processes of
nine of the most common PV technologies:
- 1. Wafer based
- 2. Thin wafer based
- 3. a-Si
- 4. Tandem: a-Si/μ-Si
- 5. III-V
- 6. CIS/CIGS
- 7. CdTe
- 8. Dye sensitized solar cells
- 9. Organic solar cells
Through this report you will get clear analyses regarding technology maturity:
Some reached mass production through standard or proprietary manufacturing
process while others are still developing innovative but low-cost
manufacturing techniques.
Yole also points out specific challenges and issues for each process, brings
key answers and evaluates the potential market for equipment and material
suppliers.
Suppliers providing lasers, screen printers, wet benches, furnaces, CVD and
PVD systems as well as the material suppliers associated to them should be
aware of the photovoltaic market opportunities detailed in this report. The
report will particularly emphasize crucial processing steps in which market
players are heavily investing.
Table of Contents
Executive summary
Market description and forecast
- Technology segmentation
- Comparison between technologies
- Production forecast with technology breakdown 2005-2015
- Technology market share 2005-2015
- Market demand (extracted from Yole PV Incentive report) including
breakdown by major countries
- Focus on main players
- End 2008 top ten
- Sharp
- Q-Cells
- Solarworld
- Suntech
- Solyndra
- First Solar
- Innovalight
- NanoSolar
- UniSolr
Production capacity and equipment park
- (polysilicon, cells, modules including thin films)
- Capacity breakdown by technology
- Capacity breakdown by country with number of fabs
Technologies and processes
- (Si Wafer based, thin Si wafer based, a-Si, a-Si/μSi, CIS/CIGS, CdTe,
III-V, DSSC, Organic)
- Description of cell structure
- Production flowchart
- Description of production steps
- Players
- Equipment
- Materials
Industrial park estimation
- PV manufacturing equipment:
- Wet bench (SDR and PSG removal), Diffusion furnace, PECVD (SiNx), PVD
(SiNx), Screen printer, Firing furnace, cell testing and sorting, PECVD for
active layer deposition, Laser scriber, PVD for TCO, MOCVD)
- Global park estimation 2008
- Estimated annual demand in equipment 2008-2013
- Main characteristics
- Technology innovations
- Material needed
- Equipment manufacturers
- Competitive technologies
- New equipment
- RIE, Electroplating, Plasma PSG removal, Inkjet, Nano-imprint
- Equipment manufacturers
- Main customers
- Issues
- Competitive technologies
COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THE REPORT
1366 Technologies; 3S Swiss Solar Systems; Air Liquide; Aixtron; Akrion;
Altatech; AMI Presco; Analog JSC; Antec Solar; Anwell; Applied Materials;
ASYS/EKRA; ATV Technologie; Aurel Automation; Baccini; Bekaert; Boostsolar;
BSI Becancour Silicon; BTU; Burkle; Centrotherm; CSG Solar; DC Chemicals; DEK;
Denal; Despatch; Deutsche Cell; Dow Corning; Dupont; Dyesol; Edwards; Elkem;
Energosolar; ErSol; Evatech; Evergreen; Eurotron ;Ferro; First Solar; Flisom;
Fraunhofer ISE; GCL Silicon; GT Solar; HALM; Hemlock; Heraeus; Honda; IHI;
IMEC; Innolas; Innovalight; Isofoton; Jun Sung; Jusung; Kaneka; Komax Systems;
Konarka; Koyo; Kyocera; LDK Solar; Leybold Optics; Machine Dubuit; Manz
Automation; Meier; MEMC; Metalor; Mitsubishi Electric; Motech; Nanosolar; NPC;
NREL; Oerlikon Solar; Optomec; OTB Engineering; P.Energy; Pasan; Pemco
Euroinks; PV Measurements; PVA tepla; Q-Cells; REC; RENA; Rena; Rofin; Roth
and Rau; Saint-Gobain; Sanyo; Schmid; Schmid; Schott Solar; SCR Engineering;
Seishin; Semco; Sharp; Sierratherm; Singulus Stangl; Sixtron; Solar Force;
SolarWorld; Solyndra; Sontor/B234; Sovello; Spire; Sulfurcell; Suntech; SVCS;
Tecnofimes; Tempress; Thieme; Trumpf; Ulvac; United Solar Ovonics; Veeco;
VHF-Technologies; Von Ardenne; Wacker-Chemie; Wacom; Wurth Solar; Xjet;
XsunX.......
