Abstract
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Powered by General Lighting applications, packaged LED market will experience
tremendous growth between 2012 and 2018 to reach $17.1B market size
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DESCRIPTION
THE LED INDUSTRY IS ENTERING ITS THIRD GROWTH CYCLE: GENERAL LIGHTING
Growth of the LED industry has come initially from the small display
application and has been driven forward by the LCD display application. LED TV
was expected to be the LED industry driver for 2011 but the reality was quite
different.... Lower adoption of LEDs in the TV market and the entry of
several new players, mostly from Asia, created a climate of overcapacity,
price pressure and strong competition. As a consequence, packaged LED volume
was about 30% lower than expected and revenue shrank due to strong ASP
pressure. In 2012, most companies have moved to the new “El
Dorado” the of LED business: General Lighting, which represents the next
killer application for LEDs. But enabling massive adoption of the technology
for such an application still requires a large decrease in the cost of
LED-based products...
Packaged LED Revenue - Split by Application
Yole Développement - August 2012
We estimate packaged LED revenue will reach a market size of $11.4B in 2012
and will peak to $17.1B by 2018. Growth will be driven both by the Display
(LCD TV) and General Lighting applications until massive adoption of LEDs in
lighting. From 2014, the third growth cycle of the LED business will
accelerate with the General Lighting application representing more than 50% of
the overall packaged LED business. In terms of volume, LED die surface will
increase from 22.5B mm2 (2012) to 80B mm2 (2018). This will prompt substrate
volume growth from 8M x 2" equivalent (TIE) in 2011 to 39.5M x 2" equivalent
in 2018 with a CAGR of 26%.
The report presents all applications of LEDs and associated market metrics
within the period 2008-2020, detailing for each application: drivers &
challenges, associated volume and market size (packaged LED, LED die surface),
penetration rate of LEDs....
COST OF PACKAGED LEDs STILL NEEDS TO BE REDUCED BY A FACTOR X10 TO ENABLE MASSIVE ADOPTION IN GENERAL LIGHTING
The adoption of LEDs for General Lighting applications strongly depends on
technology and manufacturing improvements. This is required to drive
performance and cost of LED solutions to a trigger point where massive
adoption could start.
Industry consensus points out a cost reduction per lumen of packaged LEDs by a
factor x10. This can be achieved through a combination of manufacturing
efficiency and performance improvement, such as:
- Access to larger size wafers;
- Improvements in LED epitaxy cost of ownership through yield and throughput;
- Improved packaging technologies (phosphors, optics...);
Key Technologies and Research Areas impacting on SSL Cost of Ownership
Yole Développement - August 2012
Additionally, improved package and luminaire design will also enable
significant cost reduction (“design for manufacturability”).
The report presents LED reduction opportunities, detailing: cost structure of
packaged LEDs (and LED-based lighting products), key technologies and research
areas...
CHINA's GaN MOCVD REACTOR CAPACITY HAS INCREASED BY A FACTOR X20 THE LAST 3 YEARS
The capacity for GaN LED epitaxy has increased dramatically in 2010 and 2011.
This increase took place across all regions but was most dramatic in China
(increased by a factor x20 of the reactor capacity between Q4 2009 and Q1
2012).
Most emerging Chinese LED epiwafer and die manufacturers are still lagging
significantly behind their competitors in term of technology maturity and LED
performance. The bulk of those new companies are not yet capable of
manufacturing LEDs to address the large display and general lighting
applications that are currently driving the market. In the mid-term,
consolidation of the Chinese LED Industry will occur (scenario in the central
government's new five-year plan), and China could became a major actor in the
LED Industry.
GaN MOCVD Reactor Capacity - Geographic Trends
Yole Développement - August 2012
The report presents LED value chain, detailing: reactor capacity by region,
with an analysis of capacity vs. demand, actors involved with a focus on
leading LED epitaxy and packaging companies (2011 ranking by revenue)...
NEW BUSINESS MODELS ARE MANDATORY TO CAPTURE ADDED VALUE OF LED LIGHTING
Ultimately, the long life of Solid State Lighting (SSL) technology will
totally change the lighting market by dramatically increasing the length of
the replacement cycles. The replacement market (aftermarket) will be strongly
impacted, pushing traditional players of the lighting industry to define new
strategies to capture profit (intelligent lighting, lighting solutions...). In
addition, as value is moving to the top of the value chain (module and
luminaire levels), several players that were originally involved only at LED
device levels will develop strategies of vertical integration in order to
capture more value. But accessing distribution channels represents a big
challenge for those players who develop new approaches to sell their lighting
products (e-commerce, new distributors....). The rise of LED lighting will
therefore depend on the right merger of the emerging LED industry with the
traditional lighting industry.
The report presents a deep analysis of the General Lighting application,
detailing for each market segment: status & trends, drivers & challenges,
regulations & standards, , market metrics... An analysis of geographical
trends is also developed.
BENEFITS
- The report identifies all applications of LEDs and associated market
metrics within the period 2008-2020, detailing for each application: drivers &
challenges, associated volume and market size (packaged LED, LED die surface),
penetration rate of LEDs....
- The report presents LED value chain, detailing: reactor capacity by
region, with an analysis of capacity vs. demand, actors involved with a focus
on leading LED epitaxy and packaging companies (2011 ranking by revenue)...
- The report presents a deep analysis of the General Lighting application,
detailing for each market segment: status & trends, drivers & challenges,
regulations & standards, , market metrics... An analysis of geographical
trends is also developed.
COMPANY INDEX
A-Bright, Advanced Photonics, American Bright, American Opto Plus, AOT,
ApexScience & Engineering, APT Electronics, Aqualite Co, Arima, AUO, Avago,
Bridgelux, Bright LED, Brightview electronic, CDT, Century Epitech, Chi Mei
Lighting Technology, Citizen Electronics, CREE, CS Bright, Daina, Dominant
Semiconductors, Edison, Elec-tech, Enfis, Epiled, Epilight Technology,
Epistar, EpiValley, Everlight, Excellence Opto, Fangda group, Formosa epitaxy
(Forepi), galaxia Photonic, GE, Genesis Photonics, Golden Valley
Optoelectronics, Hangzhou Silan Azure, Harvatech, HC SemiTek, Heesung, High
Power Opto, hi-Light, hueyjann, huga, huiyuan Optoelectronic, hunan HuaLei
Optoelectronic, Hunin Electronic, Idemitsu Kosan, Illumitex, Invenlux,
Itswell, KingBright, Kodenshi, Konica Minolta, Korea Photonics Technology
Institute (KOPTI), Kwality group, Lattice Power Corporation, LedEngin,
LEDTech, Lemnis, Lextar/Lighthouse, LG Display, Lg Innotek, Lighting Science,
Ligitek, Lite-On, LongDeXin (LDX), Lumei Optoelectronics, Lumenmax, Lumex,
Lumileds, LumiMicro, Lumination, Luminus, Lumitek, Lustrous Technology,
Luxpia, LuxtalTek, MokSan Electronics, Moser Baer, Nanosys, Nanya, Nationstar,
Neo-Neon, Nichia, NiNEX, Oasis, Optek Technology, Opto Tech, Osram, ParaLight,
Philips, Power Opto, Powerlightec, Rainbow Optoelectronics, Rohm, Samsung
SEMCO, Sanan Optoelectronics, Sanken Electric, Seiwa Electric, SemiLEDs, Seoul
semi / Optodevice, Shandong huaguang Optoelectronics, Sharp, Shenzen Mason
Technology, Shenzen Mimgxue, Shenzen Yiliu Electronic, Shenzhen Refond, Showa
Denko, Stanley Electric, Sunpu Opto, Supernova, Sylvania, Tekcore, TESS,
Tonghui Electronic Corporation, Toshiba, Toyoda gosei, TSMC, Tyntek, UDC,
Unity Opto, Visera Tech, Vishay, VPEC, Walsin Lihwa, Wellipower, Wenrun
Optoelectronic, Wooree LED, Xiamen Changelight, Xiamen Hualian, Ya Hsin,
Yangzhou huaxia Integrated Photoelectric (DarewinChip), Yangzhou Zhongke
Semiconductor, YoungTeck, Yuti Lighting Shanghai, Zoomview (Xi An Zoomlight).
BIO
Pars MUKISH works at Yole Développement as a Market and Technology
Analyst in the fi eld of LED. He holds a master degree in Materials Science
and a master degree in Innovation & Technology Management (EM Lyon - France).
In the past, he has worked as Marketing and Techno-Economic Analyst at the CEA.
Eeric VIREY, Ph.d. holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National
Polytechnic Institute of grenoble. In the last 12 years, he's held various
R&D, engineering, manufacturing and marketing position with Saint-gobain. Most
recently, he was Market Manager at Saint-gobain Crystals, in charge of
Sapphire substrates and materials for optical telecoms.
Tom Pearsall & EPIC fellow: in 2003, Tom started the European Photonics
Industry Consortium. Before EPIC, he works among others for Bell Laboratories,
Thomson/CSF and Corning. He is a Fellow of the American Physical Society and a
Fellow of the IEEE.
ABOUT YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT
Beginning in 1998 with Yole Développement, we have grown to become a group of
companies providing market research, technology analysis, strategy consulting,
media in addition to fi nance services. With a solid focus on emerging
applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing Yole Développement group
has expanded to include more than 50 associates worldwide covering MEMS,
Microfluidics & Medical, Advanced Packaging, Compound Semiconductors, Power
Electronics, LED, and Photovoltaic. The group supports companies, investors
and R&D organizations worldwide to help them understand markets and follow
technology trends to develop their business.
Table of Contents
- Packaged LED forecast
- Introduction to High Brightness LEDs
- Segmentation of High Brightness LED packages
- LED market metrics
- Packaged LED Revenue forecast
- Packaged LED Volume forecast
- Packaged LED Die surface forecast
- LED Supply by Region
- Recent Trends
- Price Trends of Packaged LEDs
- Leading LED Epitaxy Companies
- 2011 Revenue Ranking
- Leading LED Packaging Companies
- 2011 Revenue Ranking
- LED Reactors
- Capacity Analysis
- Geographic Trends & Impact on global demand
- Capacity vs. Demand
- Conclusion
- Display applications
- Introduction
- Large size displays: LCD TVs and Monitors
- History & Trends
- Market Drivers
- Energy Requirements
- LED Backlighting Value Chain
- Backlight Designs
- Standard Direct Backlight
- Edge Lit Backlight
- Low Cost Direct Backlight
- LED backlight color gamut
- Local dimming with LED TVs
- Backlight Design Trends
- Package and Chip Surface Trends
- Alternative Technologies
- Crystal LED (CLED)
- Quantum Dots LED (QLED)
- Organic led (OLED) - overview
- Led adoption trends
- Packaged LED revenue from lcd tvs and monitors
- Conclusion
- Small size displays: cell phones
- History & Trends
- Alternative Technologies - Organic LED (OLED)
- Comparison with LED
- Main Players
- New 2012 Devices
- Penetration Rate in cell phone
- Packaged LED revenue from cell phones
- Medium size displays: notebooks & tablets
- History & Trends
- Penetration Rate of backlight Technologies
- Packaged LED Revenue from notebooks and tablets
- Other display applications
- Personal navigation device (PND)
- Portable DVDs
- Digital Cameras and Camcorders
- Portable Multimedia players (PMP)
- Portable Game Console
- Picture Frames
- Portable Devices - The Blurred Frontier
- Packaged LED Revenue From “Other Displays”
- Sign and large display applications
- Overview
- Details on large outdoor displays
- Details on signals / emergency lights
- Packaged LED Revenue From signs and large displays
- Projector applications
- Overview of Technologies
- Details on Table Top Projectors
- Details on Ultra Portable and Pico Projectors
- Alternative Technology - laser-based projectors
- LED penetration rate
- Packaged LED revenue from projectors
- Personal lighting applications
- Overview
- Packaged LED revenue from personal lighting
- Automotive lighting applications
- Introduction
- History of LEDs integration
- Drivers for LEDs integration
- Focus on interior Lighting
- Focus on exterior Lighting
- Challenges
- Trends & potential impact on industry structure
- Sales of Automotive and Trucks
- Penetration rate of LEDs
- Packaged LED revenue - split by applications
- Conclusion
- General lighting applications (1/6) - Lumen Consumption forecast
- Introduction
- International energy agency (IEA) model
- Sandia national laboratory (SNL) model
- Model developed in the report
- General lighting applications (2/6) - Driving forces, status and trends
- Introduction
- Market segments & associated characteristics
- Overview of light source technologies
- Standard light bulb classifi cation
- 2011 worldwide lighting use
- 2011 worldwide lamp sales
- Value chain
- Overview
- Associated players & trends
- Conclusion
- Drivers & challenges
- Benefits & promises of LEDs
- Drivers for adoptionupfront Cost
- Drivers for adoption - Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
- The Path to Cost Reduction
- Cost Structure of Lighting Products
- LED Downlight Luminaire Cost Breakdown
- LED Outdoor area Lamp Cost Breakdown
- LED Replacement Lamp (bulb) Cost Breakdown
- LED Replacement Lamp Cost Breakdown
- Analysis
- Cost structure of packaged LED
- Cost breakdown of Cree Xlamp xb-d
- Cost breakdown of Lumileds Luxeon S
- Analysis
- Cost reduction Opportunities
- The Cost of Yields
- Key Technologies & Research Areas
- Main Technical Challenges
- Lifetime & Reliability
- Color Rendering & Consistency
- Regulations & Standards
- Regulations
- Ban / phase out of incandescent lamps
- CFL and Toxicity
- Potential Impact of Subsidies
- Standards
- Worldwide Trends
- Module Standardization (zhaga)
- Future Trends
- Intelligent Lighting / Lighting solution
- Low Voltage DC Power - Focus on the emerge alliance
- Alternative Technologies
- Plasma Induction Lighting
- Laser Lighting
- Oled Lighting
- Conclusion
- Conclusion
- General lighting applications (3/6) - Design trends
- Chip on Board (COB)
- Middle Power LEDs
- Light Engines
- Small vs. Large chips
- Bulb and Tubes replacement vs. Dedicated SSL modules
- Design Considerations
- Examples
- Conclusion
- General lighting applications (4/6) -Market segment review
- Residential lighting
- General Description
- Incumbent Technologies
- Lamp Replacement vs. Dedicated ssl modules
- LEDs Integration - Drivers & Stoppers
- Adoption Trends
- SWOT Analysis
- LED Penetration Trends
- Commercial lighting
- General Description
- Incumbent Technologies
- Dedicated SSL modules
- LEDs integration - Drivers & Stoppers
- Focus on Office Lighting
- Focus on High End Applications
- Focus on Specialty Applications
- SWOT Analysis
- LED Penetration Trends
- Industrial Lighting
- General Description
- Incumbent Technologies
- Focus on agricultural applications
- SWOT analysis
- LED penetration trends
- Outdoor Stationary Lighting
- General description
- Incumbent technologies
- LEDs integration - drivers & stoppers
- SWOT analysis
- LED penetration trends
- Conclusion
- General Lighting Applications (5/6) -Lamp market forecast
- Worldwide trends
- Annual sales of lamps in the world (volume)
- Split by Technology
- Split by Region
- Annual sales of Lamps in the world (m$)
- Split by Technology
- Split by Region
- Geographical Trends
- Annual sales of lamps in Europe
- Annual sales of lamps in North America
- Annual sales of lamps in Asia
- Annual sales of lamps in South America
- Annual sales of lamps in MEA
- General Lighting Applications (6/6) -Conclusion
Status of the LED Industry published by Yole Developpement in August 30, 2012. This report price starts from US $ 5390.
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