Abstract
DESCRIPTION
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New materials for active components will significantly impact packaging & cooling systems
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A +$2 BILLION MARKET FOR MODULES: A BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR POWER ELECTRONICS
In 2016, almost 25 million cars manufactured will be electrified, the majority
of them being micro-HEV, with a low level of electrification. However, some 5
million will be full HEV, plug-in HEV or EV.
As a consequence, electric vehicles (EV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV)
will represent the biggest accessible market for power device and system
makers. Without getting completely mature, the EV/HEV industry has seen its
first steps toward standardization. Electrical configuration shows a
preference for parallel and split structures. Following the same logic, DC/DC
boost converters and DC/AC inverters architecture for full HEV and EV are
adopted. Getting the best switch at the lowest cost is a must. IGBT will
continue having a bright future in hybrid and electric cars.
EV/PHEV power module market
We expect the power module market to be near $5 Billion, most made with IGBT.
It is huge and will change the game in power electronics market!
But there are still some uncertainties:
- What about new power semiconductor device adoption?
- Which materials will be preferred?
- What are the consequences on the rest of the powertrain? Cooling?
Integration? Connectivity? Passives?
- What are the consequences on the supply chain?
ELECTRICAL ARCHITECTURES ARE CHOSEN BUT SUPPLY CHAIN KEEPS ON CHANGING
The powertrain supply chain is being absorbed by car makers on one side and
power device module makers on the other, leaving few free space to tier one
suppliers. The supply-chain is literally changing. With EV/HEV, the traction's
main part becomes the inverter and the motor. We will experience great
improvements with innovative switches, inverter designs and topology,
regenerative braking etc...
Car manufacturers need to keep that added value, and thus they already started
covering the value-chain starting from the semiconductor die. Toyota is even
deeper in the supply chain with silicon wafer production capability. GM is
closer to Delphi, and they still have manufacturing available at Kokomo (US).
And we can't forget the Chinese companies. BYD is now producing IGBTs, and
many Chinese semiconductor foundries are now able to do the same.
CHINA: MARKET OPPORTUNITY OR COMPETITIVE THREAT?
China will soon have enough experience to enter foreign markets. The companies
in an uncertain position are the European ones: Volkswagen, PSA or Daimler do
not have such advantages, and may play with their tier-ones (Valeo,
Continental, etc...).
This is also an opportunity for new players. Tesla and Coda are one of those
who can come and play with the big ones.
In addition, Chinese companies, supported by the Chinese government already
benefit from big car brands and electrified transportation platform to first
protect the local market from Occidental and Japanese ones and then expand
abroad.
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS: ACTIVE, PASSIVES AND SYSTEM INTEGRATION
Technology wise, we see a common interest from car manufacturers in active and
passive devices since there is a global need for integration. Moreover,
decisions on the former will have consequences on the latter.
In addition, passive device manufacturers are beginning to understand the
overall consequences of semiconductor improvement on their business .
Power module packaging trend in EV/HEV
The challenges are related yet very different. Therefore, this report is
structured as follows:
- A newly-organized full market overview section.
- Volume 2 details passive devices: resistors, capacitors, connectors, from
the system down to the wafers
PASSIVE COMPONENTS ARE PLAYING A MORE AND MORE ACTIVE ROLE
Passive components used to be the hidden part of power conversion. They are
now under spotlights and it is deserved: they represent nearly a quarter of an
inverter cost. Better efficiency, signal quality, lifetime, even silence is
part of what they can bring. Today's hot topic is capacitor, but Yole
Devéloppement extended its research to resistor, connectors as well as power
distribution (busbars) to draw the complete picture of EV/HEV inverter market.
Capacitors are becoming application specific, and design and engineering for
EV/HEV is very active, starting with form factor. Film capacitor market, used
in DC link, are representing 95M$ in 2011, and expected to grow of 48% each
year in average. The film capacitor market is hot due to shortage. Film
producers cannot produce in enough quantity. EDLC (Electric double layer
capacitor) is the other hot topic. Batteries have their place in EV/HEV for
long term energy storage, but when the storage/usage cycle is very short, the
so called supercapacitor are more of interest. They are already placed in
micro hybrid systems and may enter the EV market for regenerative braking at
traffic lights. The re-use of energy would then become even more efficient.
EDLC CAGR is to reach 44% for the 2010-2020 period and there are plenty of
opportunities to catch.
Power resistor funtions in an hybrid/electric car
Connectors market is also of interest. They will represent more than 8 Billion
$ in 2020, including charging systems and peripherals. This huge market is not
standardized yet , and thus, each manufacturer is able to bring its added
value from an IP. However, several threats are onto connectors market. Others
connectors makers for PV market or signal can penetrate. Competition will be
very strong on a market widely driven by cost. In parallel with connectors, we
observe the evolution of internal power connections. Between power PCB,
laminated busbars and molded busbars there is a choice to be made regarding
the inverter architecture and the electrical needs. We see specific
developments coming, as Rogers Corp. who has a solderable busbar especially
for hybrid cars.
Resistor market is a bit apart from the others, quiet and without much
innovation. The opportunities maybe on integration: capacitor, busbars and
resistors all together may represent a high added value.
BENEFITS
WHO SHOULD BUY THIS REPORT?
- Car manufacturers and tier-one
- Understand the supply-chain evolution and the technologies coming
- Make the right partnerships with the right companies, and gain a
strategic advantage
- Understand your new market and plan your business expansion
- Power electronics players: material, equipment, device and module
market players
- Get the full picture and benchmark competitors and partners technical
solutions
- Understand the value-chain and its evolutions
- Take the right decisions and position yourself in tough market
BIO OF THE AUTHORS
Brice Le Gouic is in charge of power electronics and related applicative
markets activity at Yole Devéloppement. He was granted a Master of Science
degree in semiconductor physics & microelectronics from the National Institute
of Applied Sciences in Toulouse, France.
Alexandre AVRON is a full time analyst in power electronics at Yole
Devéloppement. He was granted a Master degree in Electrical engineering, with
a major in power electronics and microelectronics processes, from Applied
Sciences National Institute (INSA) of Lyon, France.
ABOUT YOLE DEVÉLOPPEMENT
Beginning in 1998 with Yole Devéloppement, we have grown to become a group of
companies providing market research, technology analysis, strategy consulting,
media in addition to fi nance services. With a solid focus on emerging
applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing Yole Devéloppement group
has expanded to include more than 40 associates worldwide covering MEMS,
Microfluidics & Medical, Advanced Packaging, Compound Semiconductors, Power
Electronics, LE D, and Photovoltaic.
Table of Contents
BEFORE WE START...
- Glossary
- Methodology and tools
- Top-down approach
- Executive summary
- What has changed in the 2011 edition?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EV HEV MARKET
- Worldwide car market
- HEV market
- EV and plug-in HEV
- Focus on Chinese market
- Main Chinese players
- Chinese market forecasts
ARCHITECTURES AND POWER SYSTEMS
- HEV architectures and power control units
- Assembly and design
- Supply chain
- Power electronics uses in HEV/EV
- Start/stop (belt Alternator system BAS)
- DC/DC converter
- DC/AC inverter
- Plug in charger
- Power electronics challenges and industrial supply chain
- Market players, latest developments, tier one automotive suppliers
VOLUME 2: PASSIVE COMPONENTS
- Resistors
- Capacitors
- Focus on EDLC
- Busbars
- Other interconnection solutions
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX
- Market players, latest developments: automotive tier one suppliers
Power Electronics for Hybrid & Electric Vehicles: Volume 2 - Passive Components published by Yole Developpement in November 1, 2011. This report price starts from US $ 5390.
