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Indonesia Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Published by Fitch Solutions, Inc. Product code 180745
Published annual subscription Content info 73 Pages
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Indonesia Country Risk Report Q1 2020
Published: annual subscription Content info: 73 Pages
Description

Key View:

We at Fitch Solutions are maintaining our forecast for Indonesia's GDP growth to come in at 5.1% for 2019 and 5.2% in 2020. We believe that looser fiscal and monetary policies will boost government spending and investment in Indonesia over the coming months. However, net exports will likely act as a slight drag on growth as Indonesia's main trading partners face economic headwinds exacerbated by trade tensions.

Table of Contents
Product Code: CFID_20200101

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • New Government Will Spur Economic Activity Through Stimulus
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Current Account Deficit To Remain Wide
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Bank Indonesia To Halt Easing For The Rest Of 2019
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • Currency Forecast
  • Rising External Headwinds Could Scupper Rupiah Strength
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Indonesian Economy To 2028
  • A Bullish Long-Term Growth Story
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Political Consensus Efforts Likely To Undermine Reforms
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Outlook Improved, But Uncertainty Lingers
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Lower Growth, Despite Some Trade Progress
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDONESIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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