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Philippines Country Risk Report Q2 2020

Published by Fitch Solutions, Inc. Product code 203087
Published annual subscription Content info 65 Pages
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Philippines Country Risk Report Q2 2020
Published: annual subscription Content info: 65 Pages
Description

We forecast growth in 2020 to come in at 6.1%, up from a revised forecast of 6.0% in 2019.

We expect the Banko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) to deliver a further 25bps rate cut in 2020 to 3.75%, with potential adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio

as well.

Key Risks

A shift away from the West and Duterte's more populist rhetoric could upset existing trade relations with major economic partners like the US and the EU.

The Philippines is increasing economic linkages and exposure to China (and moving away from the West), at a time when the US and China are experiencing rising

trade tensions. A deterioration in US-China trade relations could weigh on demand across the Asia region and weaken Chinese investment into the Philippines.

Philippines' twin deficits leave it somewhat exposed to a sudden bout of risk-off sentiment, with inflation a risk were the peso to weaken significantly.

Philippines Country Risk Q2 2020fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents
Product Code: CFPH_20200401

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Philippine Growth Set To Achieve Lower-End Of 6-7.0% Target Range
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Philippines' Current Account Deficit To Narrow
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Philippine Monetary Policy To Maintain Dovish Tilt In 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • Currency Forecast
  • PHP: Philippine Peso Strength To Fade
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Philippines Country Risk Q2 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Philippine Economy To 2029
  • Potential For Higher Investment Rate To Sustain Economic Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Risks To Philippine Outlook In Duterte Succession Scenarios
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Prospects For Improving Governance
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Growth Stabilising, With EMs Set To Accelerate In 2020
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: PHILIPPINES - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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