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Annual Information Service

Fiber Optic Forecast Service

Published by ElectroniCast Product code 322311
Published annual subscription Content info
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Fiber Optic Forecast Service
Published: annual subscription Content info:

This annual subscription plan is for clients that want all of the fiber optic related ElectroniCast multiple-client reports for 2016.

As an independent consultancy ElectroniCast offers multi-client and custom market research studies to the world's leading companies based on comprehensive, in- depth analysis of quantitative and qualitative factors. This includes technology forecasting, markets and applications forecasting, strategic planning, competitive analysis, customer-satisfaction surveys and marketing/sales consultation. ElectroniCast, founded as a technology-based independent consulting firm, meets the information needs of the investment community, industry planners and related suppliers.

This annual subscription plan is for clients that want all of the ElectroniCast multiple-client reports for 2016. The Fiber Optic Forecast Service (FOFS) provides our clients with over 20 reports (sent electronically) over the course of the year. Every month, ElectroniCast releases complete and detailed market forecasts and analysis of selected fiber optic communication products.

ElectroniCast market forecast reports are used by leading established and start-up manufacturers, R&D institutes and universities, associations, investment banks & venture capital firms, and other concerns worldwide as an important strategic planning tool for future sales, marketing and manufacturing efforts.

Analyst Inquiry Service: Subscribers are invited to discuss the findings of the market forecasts with the principal analyst of the Fiber Optic Component group at ElectroniCast, via telephone, video web or e-mail Q&A throughout the year.

Monthly Journal: The FOFS includes detailed review and forecast of various fiber optic product activities around the world. It also provides features of technology developments or new market trends, and sensitivities and key drivers to watch in the near term. The subscription service also includes the Fiber Optic Industry Monthly Review, which provides overviews and analyst briefs of industry news items of interest.

Information Base for the Market Forecasts

Primary Research

The market forecasts studies are based on analysis of information obtained continually since 1985, but updated to the study release date. ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the communication industries, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of fiber optic transmission links. The interviews were conducted principally with:

  • Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of cable, circulators, collimators, specialty fiber, fusion splice, test equipment, connectors/splices, isolators, couplers, DWDM filter modules, dispersion compensators, photonic switches, attenuators, photonic ICs, modulators, transmitters/receivers, optical amplifiers, OADMs and other related optical communication components.
  • Engineers, marketing, purchasing personnel and market planners at major users of passive and active optical components, such as telecommunication transmission, switching, distribution and apparatus equipment, regional and long-haul telephone companies, alternative local carriers, Internet service providers, data com equipment companies, cable TV system suppliers, military/ aerospace OEMs, utilities and a number of other end users of fiber optic communication components and technology.

The interviews cover issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics. Customers and distributors also are interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products are obtained.


The analyst then considers customer expectations of near term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.

Secondary Research

A full review of published information is performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources are reviewed:

  • Professional technical journals and papers
  • Trade press articles; Technical conference proceedings
  • Product literature; Company profile and financial information
  • Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast studies
  • Personal knowledge of the research team

It is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report are qualified.

Bottom-up Methodology

ElectroniCast forecasts are developed initially at the lowest detail level and then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product for the particular studied product and used in each application in the previous calendar year, as well as the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward equipment usage and economic payback.

Cross-Correlation Increases Accuracy

The quantities of fiber optic collimators, transmitters/receivers, modulators, isolators, circulators, couplers, DWDM filters, attenuators, optical amplifiers and other optical communication components used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates various component and devices in the field, accurate current quantity estimates are part of the ElectroniCast Consultants' database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a "sanity check".

The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid 1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.


  • Harsh Environment Fiber Optic Components/Devices
  • Fiber Optic Installation Apparatus (Outside and inside Plant)
  • Optical Isolators
  • Hand-Held OTDR Fiber Optic Test Equipment
  • Fiber Optic Sensors
  • Planar Lightwave Circuit (PLC) Splitters
  • Fiber Optic Structured Cabling System
  • All Optical - Photonic Switch
  • LED-Based Visible Light Communication (VLC)
  • Optical Backplanes
  • Expanded Beam Fiber Optic Connectors
  • Fiber-to-the-Antenna (FTTA)
  • Underwater Wireless Optical Communication (UWOC)
  • Fiber Optic Circulators
  • Laser-Based Optical Fiber Lighting
  • Fiber Optic Collimator Lens Assemblies
  • Fiber Optic Component Attenuators
  • Data Center Interconnect
  • Fiber Optic Media Converters
  • FTTH Transceivers
  • Remote Fiber Test System (RFTS)
  • Fiber Optic Industry Monthly Review and Analysis - Journal
  • Fiber Optic Forecast Service (FOFS) (all above reports/journal)
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