The semiconductor industry in 2012 through June is currently DOWN 5.4% over the same period in 2011 based on Semiconductor Industry Associations (SIA) 3-month moving average, as shown in the chart below.
For this year, the most optimistic forecaster is Semico with a 6-8% growth forecast. IDC is forecasting 4.6%; IHS expects 4.3%; while Gartner and Future Horizons forecast 4% and IC Insights the lowest at 3%.
In looking at the chart above, all these organizations are betting on growth of about 10% over the next 6 months in order to average out a growth they predict.
"We beg to differ," noted Dr. Robert Castellano, President of The Information Network. "According to our Proprietary Leading Indicators, which weve developed over the past 17 years, the slight drop in the 3-month moving average according to SIA is the start of a downturn that will last over at least the next three months, and in light of increasingly dour macroeconomic forces, at least through 2012. Our PLLs peaked in the current cycle in February 2012, three months ahead of the peak in the SIA numbers in May 2012."
Our August 2012 chart is shown below. We see a continued decline in our PLLs since February followed by the decline in semiconductor sales. Note that our PLLs have consistently predicted the direction of the semiconductor industry by at least 3 months.
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